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Nelson Mandingo posted:Trump won't be impeached. Anyone who honestly believes this is crazy. The only way he'll get impeached at this point is if him being president is It's too dangerous to the country not to throw him out. Forget the election. If it can be done it has to be done, even though it means Pence.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:49
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Flesh Forge posted:I think it's more likely Rs are watching their poll numbers and would go for impeachment before being voted out (if it goes that way) rather than wait until they actually lose their majority, they'd be just as happy with Pence as with Trump. They'd likely be happier with Pence than Trump. That said, they're also going to factor in how bad it'd look for them if Trump was successfully impeached--they'd be publicly admitting they backed the wrong guy, that they were taken in by a con man, that they were simpering toadies to a criminal. It's even possible a lot of their own party would be implicated in whatever comes out during an impeachment trial. There's a bit of calculus they need to do. What's worse: being chained to Trump, or a public revelation of their backing a criminal? I don't think the answer's straightforward by any means.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:49
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DaveWoo posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/EliStokols/status/872549729221193729 Just locker room talk. Boys will be boys and all
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Jun 7, 2017 21:50
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Harrow posted:
They are only "chained" to Trump because Republican voters love Trump. Until that changes they won't abandon him, and I don't think it will/can happen to the degree necessary to ditch him. You think Rubio, Cruz, and Ryan support Trump because they want to? LOL
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Jun 7, 2017 21:51
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Trump won't be impeached. Anyone who honestly believes this is crazy. The only way he'll get impeached at this point is if him being president is Impeachment only requires a simple majority in the House. Which makes impeachment likely if the Dems take the House in 2018. Conviction in the Senate requires 2/3 majority which obviously isn't going to happen.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:51
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Sloober posted:if i could i'd get a X Files "I WANT TO BELIEVE" with a VHS tape labeled "PEE TAPE" instead of a UFO. 
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Jun 7, 2017 21:52
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Unzip and Attack posted:They are only "chained" to Trump because Republican voters love Trump. Until that changes they won't abandon him, and I don't think it will/can happen to the degree necessary to ditch him. Yeah, ultimately I agree. Trump would have to be not just a liability, but an absolutely massive liability in order for impeaching him to be better for the GOP than continuing to back him. That's not likely, and it's why I think impeachment is only even remotely possible if Democrats take the House (and, even then, would almost certainly not succeed in removing him from office).
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Jun 7, 2017 21:52
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PhazonLink posted:BTW question about the NJ primary, was there any interesting movement among the Dem to move left? Like yeah both sides got their expected winner, but did the losers for the Dem primary win by smaller margins than expected? NJ has a shitload of progressive Democrats, and they came out in force for Johnson and Wisniewski, two candidates more progressive than Murphy. Each got about 22% of the vote, while Murphy got about 48%. So it's not like it almost cost him the primary or anything, but when 44% of the voters said they wanted someone more progressive and you ended up with 48% of the vote, it should send a message. Who knows if Murphy actually listens. His platform's actually more left than he gets credit for, but I don't think anyone's holding their breath.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:53
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theflyingorc posted:I grew up in Evangelical circles and...publicized proof of being with prostitutes would be a problem for them. Honest question (and I know being rational isn't a normal thing for these folks) but how do they have a problem with this but no problem with having had a string of wives, including the fact that the current one is clearly not really into filling the tradition role of being a wife (like for example being in the same room with him for any significant amount of time)? Also wouldn't the Billy Bush tape clearly demonstrate that he was down to gently caress (or whatever the hell that toad does) anything that would give him a chance? When I think of evangelicals and their views on how marriage/relationships should work, I think about Pence. Again: I'm seriously asking, not being a smart rear end.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:53
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botany posted:wow thank you for your service, needlessly pedantic man It is not needlessly pedantic, because a lot of people really do mean a majority of the house, and then when people flip the gently caress out and demand how we expect 20 GOP Senators to flip, we're like "wait, what?"
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Jun 7, 2017 21:53
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Just a side note and reminder that Russia's framed several people with "sex tapes" before using lookalikes. I have almost no doubt there's a piss tape on Obama's former hotel bed, but I wonder if anyone would be convinced the russkies actually found a Trump clone to play the part. All that aside, tomorrow's gonna be great... for Trump's twitter! covfefe was just the tip of the iceberg on stroke induced tweets.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:54
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PhazonLink posted:Did they edit the pic to make what's-his-name look worse/like Donnie? Time has never been kind to Steve buschemi. Doesn't make him any less cool for returning to his old fire station and helping after 9/11 though.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:55
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https://twitter.com/metasynthie/status/872539725097299968
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Jun 7, 2017 21:56
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hahah Christie is still on MSNBC just being completely belligerent
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Jun 7, 2017 21:56
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The way polarization works these days I think it's impossible for a republican president to be so underwater impeaching him becomes the winning move for enough republicans. Maybe thirty years ago.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:56
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Maybe old news but Secret Hitler released a new add-on pack that replaces facist cards with the trump admin. http://trumppack.deals/ 
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Jun 7, 2017 21:57
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Impeachment only becomes a possibility when Trump's approval is in the 20s. If he's in the 20s, then he becomes a huge liability for the House in 2018 and the Dems may even gain seats in the Senate.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:57
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The pee tape comes out, Christie goes on television talking about "normal New York City sex acts"
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Jun 7, 2017 21:57
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theflyingorc posted:The vast majority of Republicans found insane reasons to twist themselves to not believe that he actually committed sexual assault. Well, to be fair Democrats have been doing that for 20 years.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:58
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So does Trump have something on Christie, or does Christie just hero-worship him as the big tough strongman mob boss he wishes he was?
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Jun 7, 2017 21:58
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Toaster Beef posted:NJ has a shitload of progressive Democrats, and they came out in force for Johnson and Wisniewski, two candidates more progressive than Murphy. Each got about 22% of the vote, while Murphy got about 48%. So it's not like it almost cost him the primary or anything, but when 44% of the voters said they wanted someone more progressive and you ended up with 48% of the vote, it should send a message. Who knows if Murphy actually listens. His platform's actually more left than he gets credit for, but I don't think anyone's holding their breath. His platform is actively good on many issues. It's who he is that worries people on the left.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:58
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Trump is a bitch, Christie doubly so
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Jun 7, 2017 21:59
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FuriousxGeorge posted:It's too dangerous to the country not to throw him out. Forget the election. If it can be done it has to be done, even though it means Pence. I agree, even though Pence would probably be worse domestically because he'd be more effective. Things are getting way too squirrelly internationally to allow Trump to stay at the helm, though. It'd be great if we could clean the slate all the way down to Hatch and just let him keep the seat warm with no mandate to actually do anything, but I'll take what we can get if it means we don't have Pissbaby allowing WWIII to start.
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Jun 7, 2017 21:59
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Harrow posted:So does Trump have something on Christie, or does Christie just hero-worship him as the big tough strongman mob boss he wishes he was?
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Jun 7, 2017 21:59
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/republicans-wont-impeach-trump-no-matter-what-his-crimes.html I actually disagree. There's something more powerful than hyperpartisan politics, and that is a sense of covering your own rear end. Of fleeing the sinking ship. A sense of self-preservation. Antti posted:The way polarization works these days I think it's impossible for a republican president to be so underwater impeaching him becomes the winning move for enough republicans. Maybe thirty years ago. Again, I disagree. The key component here is that if Trump sheds too many republican voters they may get rid of him in order to preserve their party. Harrow posted:If the Democrats take the House in 2018, it's definitely possible Trump will be impeached. That doesn't mean he'll be removed from office. But he could well face an impeachment trial. I actually see those polls as getting worse over time. He's currently under 50% with the military and the exurb voters. That only leaves evangelicals and rural voters. The military approval rating is going to go into freefall as he continues to screw up. He's going to be at or below Nixon approval ratings before 2018. Around 24-25% approval rating with 60-65% disapproval rating. He seems to be careening from one screw up to another and while he isn't pissing off everyone all of the time he does make certain groups incensed. They'll remember that going forward and I don't really see him being able to pass any meaningful policy that will reflect well on him. He's not really capable of crafting meaningful or good policy that will appease anyone. At some point he'll be so toxic that congress won't even entertain his ideas because he'll be toxic even with their own base. At some point the republicans will try to get rid of him to preserve their own party, but before that they'll try to isolate him. To an extent they're already doing it. The Saudi trip actually wasn't a $110 billion arms deal. The FAA executive order has no teeth. I think that they're going to attempt to create a sort of presidential mock show that makes him think he's having an effect and that he's powerful but in actuality they're just using him to pass their own agendas and making him think he's important. Even then I think he's still going to careen from crisis to crisis because he's still necessary and powerful. My guess is that the idea of impeachment within the GOP will begin to be openly entertained at around 30% and people will begin to move on it at 25% and less. I see him getting here because he is unable to make people pleased with his actions. I see him as being unable to gain any more of a floor than he already has. His floor, once lowered, only comes back a bit. He's gotten all that he can and can only shed them at this point. So the benchmarks are: 35% approval rating. Grumblings and open criticism from the republicans. 30% approval rating. Talk of impeachment. 25% approval rating. Nixonian levels of approval ratings. The gears of government truly begin to grind in order to push him out of office. Below that it only makes it more and more likely.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:00
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Lote posted:Impeachment only becomes a possibility when Trump's approval is in the 20s. If he's in the 20s, then he becomes a huge liability for the House in 2018 and the Dems may even gain seats in the Senate. Trump's overall approval is irrelevant. The only number that matters is his approval among Republicans. As long as that remains high, nothing is going to happen. Republicans still fear being primaried more than any Democratic opposition.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:00
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Where else is Christie gonna go after he's kicked out of the NJ governor's mansion?
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Jun 7, 2017 22:00
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so my take on this thing is that Comey really doesn't have anything concrete or enough to cause waves, is that correct
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Jun 7, 2017 22:00
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Harrow posted:So does Trump have something on Christie, or does Christie just hero-worship him as the big tough strongman mob boss he wishes he was? I think it started as part of his ever continuing attempt to gain more power and spotlight time (see: that one fuckin' video of him forcing himself into a hug with two guys in a skybox), but it kinda eroded into him just being in too deep so this is all he has left.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:00
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HappyHippo posted:Just locker room talk. Boys will be boys and all More like just normal NYC politics. Like Sheldon Silver and Dean Skelos.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:01
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Jun 7, 2017 22:02
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saintonan posted:Trump's overall approval is irrelevant. The only number that matters is his approval among Republicans. As long as that remains high, nothing is going to happen. Republicans still fear being primaried more than any Democratic opposition. Some do. Others are so worried about getting tossed out on a wave that here in Texas they were making calls to redistrict to hedge up their gerrymander against losses.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:02
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There's no self preservation of there's no comeuppance. If they impeach it won't be before Actual Things Happen re: the midterms. Period full stop. Ship it. There's still a real good chance that normal voting patterns hold in 2018 and Trump goes the full 8 years as a crippled but still Republican policy pushing machine.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:02
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eviltastic posted:Submitting prepared remarks before testifying to Congress is normal. I don't think Comey is the one to make that call.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:03
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Harrow posted:So does Trump have something on Christie, or does Christie just hero-worship him as the big tough strongman mob boss he wishes he was? christie is less popular than herpes among (a) people from new jersey (b) republicans who aren't trump fans bitter that he helped trump win the primary (c) people in general his only hope of a job once hes turfed out of the governor's office that he currently holds only because democrats think it's better to have him in office reminding new jerseyites why you don't vote for republicans than to impeach him is for trump to allow him to come crawling back, so he's going to continue to debase himself in the hopes of returning to favor
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Jun 7, 2017 22:03
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saintonan posted:Trump's overall approval is irrelevant. The only number that matters is his approval among Republicans. As long as that remains high, nothing is going to happen. Republicans still fear being primaried more than any Democratic opposition. Yeah but if Arizona, Texas, and Mississippi look like it will be a toss-up Senate race in a non presidential year, that's when Trump's support among Conrgess collapses.
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Jun 7, 2017 22:03
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DLC Inc posted:so my take on this thing is that Comey really doesn't have anything concrete or enough to cause waves, is that correct it confirms impeachable obstruction of justice and impeachable attempts to control the fbi, but republicans still will likely look the other way
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Jun 7, 2017 22:03
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Here's your template for every right-wing take from now until 2019 https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/872558012753485824
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Jun 7, 2017 22:04
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also, it's not a vhs tape, it's a flash drive
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Jun 7, 2017 22:04
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mcmagic posted:We never had it tested out in a Presidential campaign before... Yup, never been any presidents that might of raped anyone before
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