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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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What was the difference between the expected youth turnout for Cleggmania and the actual turnout? Is the expected turnout comparable to what was going on with the youth back then?
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Jun 8, 2017 00:21
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| # ? May 15, 2024 19:37 |
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Have an american hot take: https://twitter.com/MrRBourne/status/872591545400086529
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Jun 8, 2017 00:22
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Well, life is full of meaningless suffering and frustrating disappointments. I am going to drink as the election results come out because gently caress it.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:22
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Who looks at cleggy and thinks hmm yes this man is down with my yoof.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:22
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Did they put YouGov out of order as a gently caress you to the obvious herding?
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Jun 8, 2017 00:24
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OwlFancier posted:What did he say? He was amazingly pro-Labour but had voted Tory last time, because, in his own words, "I didn't pay any loving attention". I said the Labour party forgives him if he gets at least five friends to vote with him. Actually selling Labour was pretty easy since he was lab-leaning to begin with, but explaining the process of voting and how parties worked took forever and I'm kind of stunned it was never covered in school but, eh, he's 20, I'll forgive him for not understanding the specifics in his second election. He was at least interested to know. It's far more baffling when you run into a 60-something pensioner who adamantly insists something works in a way completely divorced from reality. spectralent fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Jun 8, 2017 |
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Jun 8, 2017 00:26
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Average of an 8 point lead for the Tories ignoring the Ipso Mori one, and give a 10 point margin of error either way we have an 18 point lead for the Tories or a 2 point lead for Labour as the margins of error. Hope...
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Jun 8, 2017 00:28
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872595284886507521
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Jun 8, 2017 00:28
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OwlFancier posted:I mean given brexit turnout and the big push towards youth voting and corbyn actually having some youth appeal I think that maybe it should be a bit higher, and it's not like +50% youth turnout would be historically unheard of. We have an intern in the office at the moment, and he said that everyone in their year has registered to vote that he knows, and there was quite a stigma against anyone saying they were not going to vote or were going to vote Tory. Maybe Brexit was enough of a shock to galvanise them all into getting out of their pits and vote. TheRat's post looks sobering though.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:29
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Coohoolin posted:What was the difference between the expected youth turnout for Cleggmania and the actual turnout? Is the expected turnout comparable to what was going on with the youth back then? Graun noted that Cleggmania evaporated within 6 days whereas Corbynismo has actually remained constant all 6 weeks of polling. I think they noted that Clegg was actually poo poo outside of debates so people lost their rose-tinting.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:29
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One problem is always that bad final polls normally have a disproportionate impact on youth enthusiasm compared to any other group. Be nice to see tomorrow buck the trend.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:29
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Huh, that's... not where I expected us to be. Anyway, pick a poll, any poll to decide how much of hope is a lie.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:30
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Skinty McEdger posted:One problem is always that bad final polls normally have a disproportionate impact on youth enthusiasm compared to any other group. Be nice to see tomorrow buck the trend. Apparently Labour voters are statistically more likely to stay at home when it rains as well. And it's raining tomorrow here. 
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Jun 8, 2017 00:32
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I still don't see how a bad poll makes you not vote. That's some pretty incredible levels of conformity.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:32
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TheRat posted:Have an american hot take: "Fewer checks on power" mmm yes Trump would absolutely manage to become to the leader of a Westminster party
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Jun 8, 2017 00:33
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I think my newest "Why do you believe this specific wrong thing so hard?" was an old lady I talked to on a phone who said that the speaker is a member of the royal family who's appointed by the queen to oversee parliament. She didn't believe it was Bercrow and when I pressed said "do you know, I suspect it's that Andrew man."
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Jun 8, 2017 00:34
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So we have two polls in hung parliament territory (possibly three if you discount YouGov's blatant lack of balls), three predicting a moderate Tory majority, and three a landslide. Basically it's all over the place.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:35
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Prince John posted:We have an intern in the office at the moment, and he said that everyone in their year has registered to vote that he knows, and there was quite a stigma against anyone saying they were not going to vote or were going to vote Tory. Maybe Brexit was enough of a shock to galvanise them all into getting out of their pits and vote. brexit would've galvanised them, trump would've, even bernie losing the primary. lots of recent lessons for the youth about the importance of turning out.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:36
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As much as I'd like to see a United Ireland result from May pushing through a disastrous hard Brexit, it would be good to see Corbyn win and give you guys a break from the conversion to Airstrip One. Though another recession feels on the way, especially if he continues with Brexit, and it would be a shame to have him blamed for ruining the economy by trying to save the NHS and invest in infrastructure.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:36
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spectralent posted:I think my newest "Why do you believe this specific wrong thing so hard?" was an old lady I talked to on a phone who said that the speaker is a member of the royal family who's appointed by the queen to oversee parliament. She didn't believe it was Bercrow and when I pressed said "do you know, I suspect it's that Andrew man." Have you been doing the phone bank stuff then? How's it been? I've chickened out of doing that as I'm not terribly comfortable on the phone and I have a poo poo voice that I need to counteract with the rest of me to make a reasonable impression.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:36
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Why would you distribute don't knows in a non-compulsory election anyway? Surely they're even less likely to vote than yoof who say they are strongly committed to voting? e:I mean other than herding. Do any of the other polls distribute dks?
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Jun 8, 2017 00:37
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You know, every since BBC replaced Rick Wakeman's Arthur as the election theme, things have went to poo poo. A clear connection if ever there was one.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:37
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Why would you distribute don't knows in a non-compulsory election anyway? Surely they're even less likely to vote than yoof who say they are strongly committed to voting? YouGov basically said in their write up they allocated them to their 2015 votes.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:38
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:I still don't see how a bad poll makes you not vote. That's some pretty incredible levels of conformity. It can go the other way though - complacency for the leading party's supporters rather than despair. Prince John posted:Apparently Labour voters are statistically more likely to stay at home when it rains as well. And it's raining tomorrow here. The slimy, amphibious skin of Tory voters means they're more comfortable in the drizzle. (Also the good news is, rain affecting turnout is an urban myth - http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40172917)
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Jun 8, 2017 00:38
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872591111746990080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw As I said earlier this range isn't much different to a few days ago: so why believe in a labour victory any less now than then?
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Jun 8, 2017 00:38
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Goddammit the idiot Slab people are going to let in the Tories. Where's Detritus when you need him.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:39
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Pissflaps posted:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872591111746990080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw They don't, they're just preparing themselves. 
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Jun 8, 2017 00:39
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Coohoolin posted:I've been drinking Fraoch and I've resigned myself to a further five years of being angry at everyone and going full saltire mad. Not much else to do eh. good beer choice
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Jun 8, 2017 00:43
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Prince John posted:Wow. What do they think about the moon landings?  One of the best Twitter fights recently was between fans of Trad. Christian Neo-Nazi The Golden One and Pagan Neo-Nazi Varg Vikernes over religion. Within the hour they were accusing each other of being secret Jews and worshiping a Jew and destroying European culture to benefit the Jews.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:43
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Raeg posted:You know, every since BBC replaced Rick Wakeman's Arthur as the election theme, things have went to poo poo. A clear connection if ever there was one. You mean this? A good election theme song if I ever heard one. Pissflaps posted:As I said earlier this range isn't much different to a few days ago: so why believe in a labour victory any less now than then? because we are only capable of extremes in emotion and will gladly swing between the two at the changing of a wind, watch us go Coohoolin posted:Goddammit the idiot Slab people are going to let in the Tories. Enh, only if it's SNP voters swinging. I imagine some of the #scotlabfightback will be down to unionists who were tempted by Strong Ruth Davidson No Referendum Ruth Davidson
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Jun 8, 2017 00:43
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freebooter posted:It can go the other way though - complacency for the leading party's supporters rather than despair. Heh, huzzah! Perhaps my local party were just using it as a motivating tactic 
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Jun 8, 2017 00:43
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Angepain posted:Enh, only if it's SNP voters swinging. I imagine some of the #scotlabfightback will be down to unionists who were tempted by Strong Ruth Davidson No Referendum Ruth Davidson Well, most of the swing SNP voters in 2015 swung from Labour, so it's not a huge leap that the majority of those swinging to Labour are just coming back from SNP.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:45
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Pissflaps posted:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872591111746990080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw I think a lot of pollsters are going to feel silly tomorrow.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:46
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Lord of the Llamas posted:I think a lot of pollsters are going to feel silly tomorrow. Except YouGov! Either their (recently tweaked) poll is right, or their (experimental) model is right! Funny how that works out.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:47
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Angepain posted:
Sorry, I think you mean, Ruth Davidson: Tory Queen of Scots. 
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Jun 8, 2017 00:47
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So do I see many more videos/articles/songs praising corbyn and telling may to gently caress off because I live in a bubble or will this entire demographic group vote Labour and the rest will 100% not? I mean I know I have a bubble but I don't really find much even if I search for it.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:48
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Coohoolin posted:Goddammit the idiot Slab people are going to let in the Tories. I'm not sure it Scottish Labour's fault people are voting tory.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:48
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Prince John posted:We have an intern in the office at the moment, and he said that everyone in their year has registered to vote that he knows, and there was quite a stigma against anyone saying they were not going to vote or were going to vote Tory. Maybe Brexit was enough of a shock to galvanise them all into getting out of their pits and vote. I fear this just makes the shy Tories double down on their voting intentions.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:48
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jabby posted:Except YouGov! Either their (recently tweaked) poll is right, or their (experimental) model is right! Funny how that works out. they should all just use the nate silver 'well i did give him a 5% chance so i did actually call it right' method
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Jun 8, 2017 00:49
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| # ? May 15, 2024 19:37 |
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whatever happens tomorrow please don't take it as a repudiation of populist leftist politics
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Jun 8, 2017 00:49
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