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Vox Nihili posted:Usual advice is to sell when you can reap a big profit. Question you need to ask yourself is "would I buy in at the present price?" If no, then sell. If yes, then maybe hold. Like those Quist Yes he could have dropped for near 50 cents last night.
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May 26, 2017 00:42
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This worked out well. Take your Quist-No money move it to the Georgia Election against Ossoff for 35 cents. That market will be back up to 50/50 soon.
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May 26, 2017 03:16
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bawfuls posted:I haven't seen much polling from Montana, is it really free money? Yep. Hot Tip: Body slams increase profit margins so much, you'll need a 20 gallon hat to carry away all this free money. "Quist No From the Get-Go"™
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May 26, 2017 05:12
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Merlot Brougham posted:Yep. quist no after the body slam incident was an incredible opportunity at 50c, almost made me want to get back into this
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May 26, 2017 05:16
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quist hit 65c last night briefly. 0-5 margin was at 60c.
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May 26, 2017 06:49
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Vox Nihili posted:quist no after the body slam incident was an incredible opportunity at 50c, almost made me want to get back into this I'd recommend it. The water's fine.
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May 26, 2017 18:08
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Bought in at Kushner charges yes at 19 this morning. Thoughts on riding this one out or flipping it now for some beer money?
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May 27, 2017 01:24
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Beer should always be the most important factor, seriously.
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May 27, 2017 21:07
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Why is this market still open and why is yes so low? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4792/Will-Trump-withdraw-from-the-Paris-Agreement-in-2017#data
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Jun 3, 2017 22:12
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bawfuls posted:Why is this market still open and why is yes so low? Because of the specific rules of the market. The conditions for this to resolve yes have not yet occurred. Maybe not a bad buy, but I'll stick to the free money. There are plenty of better markets. Predictit.org posted:On or before December 31, 2017, Donald Trump, while serving as president of the United States, or an authorized agent or agency of the federal government, shall publicly announce the United States' unconditional withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or shall issue an executive order or other instrument with the effect of removing or nullifying the United States' signature from, participation in, or compliance with the Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC. Such withdrawal, executive order or other instrument need not be effective by the End Date.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:44
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what about that doesn't apply to this week's announcement? I don't get what's ambiguous about it
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Jun 3, 2017 23:48
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bawfuls posted:what about that doesn't apply to this week's announcement? I don't get what's ambiguous about it It isn't 100% clear if this line has been satisfied: "[Trump or agent] shall publicly announce the United States' unconditional withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)..." Part of the problem is that Trump is functionally illiterate, so the actual words that came out of his mouth are confusing: "“the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord, but begin negotiations to reenter either the Paris accord” or another “entirely new transaction, on terms that are fair to the United States.” Does that amount to "unconditional withdrawal?" Personally, I think Yes is a good buy at 70c, but these rules have been known to bite people in the rear end, and you can safely assume that dozens of maxed bettors will be emailing PI in both directions with what amount to legal briefs on the matter. Part of the problem is that people "farm" ambiguous markets by buying whatever is cheap and then selling when the price goes up due to chaos.
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Jun 4, 2017 01:41
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It is 100% clear that that line hasn't been satisfied; the UNFCCC treaty was never mentioned by Trump. Trump ejecting us from the UNFCCC would've been the super quick way of ejecting us from the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is subordinate to the UNFCCC, and PI makes that distinction between the two in the rules. It's also fairly clear that Trump hasn't yet triggered the second part of the rules by merely making a political speech (and PI would seem to agree, by virtue of the market being open). We can't actually begin leaving the agreement until 2019. It remains to be seen whether anything in writing or official is submitted anywhere, hence the pricing at 70. People are hoping for something to be released by the Federal Govt that codifies our exit, but it is unknown when or if it will come.
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Jun 4, 2017 02:53
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trump could also change his mind next week
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Jun 6, 2017 20:39
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Arkane posted:It is 100% clear that that line hasn't been satisfied; the UNFCCC treaty was never mentioned by Trump. Trump ejecting us from the UNFCCC would've been the super quick way of ejecting us from the Paris Agreement. I went through this all again and I think this is probably the same result I would reach, but lol @ relying on PI to come to that conclusion (and also lol @ whoever writes their rules, once again he managed to completely misinterpret the title of the market). It certainly has the feel of a sucker's market.
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Jun 7, 2017 07:18
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I only just started this and I don't know what I am doing so take this with a grain of salt. I'm also a very hopefuly GA06 voter (though I dumped my Ossoff stock because I reminded myself to never get too excited about politics in GA) GA06 RV % at 50% + for yes is only at 60cents. Early vote has already beaten round 1 which was about 37-43% and the election isn't until the 20th. The Ossoff campaign has been relentless with their GOTV and there's a backlog of mail in votes not yet counted. Cohn on twitter has lots of nice charts that also make it look like the final tally will be shy of a regular election vote count but miles ahead of round 1. Probably going to be 55-60%. Well over 50 to meet this market. caveat: no one seems to know what the exact number they have to hit is since they allowed new registrations for this round. That's spooking people.
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Jun 7, 2017 15:38
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Anyone in the UK election markets at this point? Only thing that seems "safe" to me is betting against 390+ Tory seats, currently at 90c. But if there's one thing that's clear about UK elections at this point its that the polling is not reliable so anything could happen.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:05
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bawfuls posted:Anyone in the UK election markets at this point? I'm trusting my gut that everything sucks (despite Le Pen) and the polls aren't catastrophically wrong and betting Corbyn loses, but that isn't nearly as safe a bet as the 390+ bet.
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Jun 7, 2017 18:52
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May No is also getting into reasonable lotto ticket territory now (<10c). If the Tories win but lose seats relative to their current position, or fail to win an outright majority, there's a strong chance she is ousted by her own party.
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Jun 7, 2017 19:00
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bawfuls posted:May No is also getting into reasonable lotto ticket territory now (<10c). If the Tories win but lose seats relative to their current position, or fail to win an outright majority, there's a strong chance she is ousted by her own party. This is a good take. Personally though I think hope is a lie and have everything on May Yes.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:19
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Jedi Knight Luigi posted:This is a good take. Personally though I think hope is a lie and have everything on May Yes.
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Jun 8, 2017 00:21
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Im getting ready to sell off all the mid ranges I bought for 2 cents. Holding my No on conservative 329 or less.
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Jun 8, 2017 17:57
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Vishass posted:I only just started this and I don't know what I am doing so take this with a grain of salt. I'm also a very hopefuly GA06 voter (though I dumped my Ossoff stock because I reminded myself to never get too excited about politics in GA) This. I agree. A few days ago I got a boat load at 42 cents. Doing well so far.
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Jun 8, 2017 18:02
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Just made a few bucks on comey not saying "obstruction of Justice" during the hearing. It was still 50/50 as of this morning.
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Jun 8, 2017 18:28
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Waiting for the scotland referrendum market to jump after the conservative landslide. Get in now while it's cheap.
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Jun 8, 2017 19:52
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Merlot Brougham posted:Waiting for the scotland referrendum market to jump after the conservative landslide. Get in now while it's cheap. not sure if serious
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Jun 8, 2017 21:05
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Exit polls suggesting a hung parliament, that May No gamble may pay off after all! 
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Jun 8, 2017 22:05
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Arkane posted:not sure if serious Not serious. Was serious about no 329, which isnt looking good but i was pot committed and bought a few more shares. Whats another 20 bucks if this thing goes sour? Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 22:58 on Jun 8, 2017 |
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Jun 8, 2017 22:38
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Merlot Brougham posted:Im getting ready to sell off all the mid ranges I bought for 2 cents. Holding my No on conservative 329 or less. RIP
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Jun 8, 2017 22:39
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This isnt france. Theres still hope based on exit polls
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Jun 8, 2017 22:41
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Jun 8, 2017 23:03
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Merlot Brougham posted:This isnt france. Theres still hope based on exit polls RIP
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Jun 8, 2017 23:09
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looks like exit polls may be over-favoring labour, actual results looking equivocal so far. very little data, however. hold on to ur butts if youve got money in this one
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Jun 8, 2017 23:12
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Vox Nihili posted:looks like exit polls may be over-favoring labour That's what I'm seeing so far. And of course hoping for.
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Jun 8, 2017 23:20
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Where are you seeing those results? Only one's I've found thus far are two safe Labor seats being called as expected.
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Jun 8, 2017 23:21
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bawfuls posted:Where are you seeing those results? Only one's I've found thus far are two safe Labor seats being called as expected. Labour was expected to win both seats but the poll was expecting them to have significantly better %. One of the two actually had a small swing to the conservatives which they said was the opposite of what the poll suggested.
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Jun 8, 2017 23:26
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Merlot Brougham posted:That's what I'm seeing so far. And of course hoping for. Those first 3 results or so were misleading, exit polls looking spot-on now.
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Jun 9, 2017 02:14
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Now those were good quality lotto tickets 
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Jun 9, 2017 04:14
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Thinking it may be time to cash out on May No. If the Tories are close enough that all they need is DUP then the leadership change might not happen by the 30th, tough to say.
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Jun 9, 2017 04:17
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It's up a huge amount, so cashing out now is certainly a safe reaping. 500% return ain't shabby. That said, massive calls even from tories for her to step down. Even if they cling to their majority, she's probably toast.
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Jun 9, 2017 04:20
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