NBA Playoffs 2016-17 G/V: The Playoffs Are A Band Metaphor Now

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > NBA Playoffs 2016-17 G/V: The Playoffs Are A Band Metaphor Now

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Tae: Oct 24, 2010; Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!

DeimosRising posted:

Consider how effective small ball was not at running geriatric Duncan off the court, or how the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in part because they lost a big, slow center who was a critical part of their game on both sides of the court.

The most baffling takeaway from that Bogut injury and I will never understand it. Losing Bogut didn't make the warriors lose, it's replacing him with two lovely centers like Varejao and McAdoo instead of playing the perimeter players more minutes.

Unless you want to admit Zaza is more critical to the Warriors now than Bogut was in 2016, then you might be in the right direction.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 17:58

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 00:41

BWV: Feb 24, 2005

Paul Robeson would sweep the 2017 Warriors

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:01

EvanTH: Apr 24, 2004; i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

Zaza has been critical to the Warriors, he's been removing Thompson from the games.

Bogut->Pachulia is a downgrade so they must have got an upgrade somewhere that compensates for it hmmm what could that have been hmm umm I can't think of anything right now hmm.

Really tho I'm not sure I understand that argument, Tae? Losing Bogut didn't make them lose, replacing him with worse players did? Isn't replacing him a consequence of losing him and the same thing?

EvanTH fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Jun 11, 2017

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:02

EvanTH: Apr 24, 2004; i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

EvanTH posted:

I've never heard of TPA. What is this?

oops forgot about google

http://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

quote:

TPA Model

The concept of total points added (TPA), isn�t particularly complicated. We�re looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives.

At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:

Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions.
Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions.

Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis�twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.

As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It�s broken down into two parts�offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)�and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:06

DeimosRising: Oct 17, 2005; �Hola SEA!

Tae posted:

The most baffling takeaway from that Bogut injury and I will never understand it. Losing Bogut didn't make the warriors lose, it's replacing him with two lovely centers like Varejao and McAdoo instead of playing the perimeter players more minutes.

Unless you want to admit Zaza is more critical to the Warriors now than Bogut was in 2016, then you might be in the right direction.

You can't play Draymond at C for 35 minutes. He will foul out and get beaten up. The future is not small ball, it's big guys with handles and a jumper IN ADDITION to banging for rebounds, put backs, and post ups. The ideal modern center is not Draymond Green, let alone a perimeter center like Frye, but Jokic or Towns or Embiid. Those kind of guys, once they are in their primes, will eat Dray's lunch if he has to guard them extended minutes.

This is not to poo poo on Draymond. He's a unique and invaluable offensive piece and a great defender whose versatility allows him to guard any player for a short while. But he is not a replacement for nor has he invalidated actual bigs. Size is good. You need size and you always will.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:09

Tae: Oct 24, 2010; Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!

DeimosRising posted:

You can't play Draymond at C for 35 minutes. He will foul out and get beaten up. The future is not small ball, it's big guys with handles and a jumper IN ADDITION to banging for rebounds, put backs, and post ups. The ideal modern center is not Draymond Green, let alone a perimeter center like Frye, but Jokic or Towns or Embiid. Those kind of guys, once they are in their primes, will eat Dray's lunch if he has to guard them extended minutes.

This is not to poo poo on Draymond. He's a unique and invaluable offensive piece and a great defender whose versatility allows him to guard any player for a short while. But he is not a replacement for nor has he invalidated actual bigs. Size is good. You need size and you always will.

You're taking this the wrong way. I'm not saying there's no place for good centers. I'm saying playing McAdoo and Varejao the time they did cost them the margin enough for the Warriors to lose. The same way starting Mike Bibby and Big Z for the 2011 Heat did in the NBA Finals. You shorten the rotation, not play 13 man rotations which is completely Kerr's style.

Varejao does not defend, rebound, or score. He doesn't even box out. Playing Livingston 10 more minutes instead would be productive on some form of positive basketball.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:13

DeimosRising: Oct 17, 2005; �Hola SEA!

Tae posted:

You're taking this the wrong way. I'm not saying there's no place for good centers. I'm saying playing McAdoo and Varejao the time they did cost them the margin enough for the Warriors to lose. The same way starting Mike Bibby and Big Z for the 2011 Heat did in the NBA Finals. You shorten the rotation, not play 13 man rotations which is completely Kerr's style.

Varejao does not defend, rebound, or score. He doesn't even box out. Playing Livingston 10 more minutes instead would be productive on some form of positive basketball.

But there's no one to defend the paint and absorb fouls. Lebron and Irving will just go at the rim and Love I'll post up Green or Barnes over and over and they'll wrack up fouls. You're daring the refs not to shorten your rotation even more by fouling Green out, and if you lose that bet and have to play Varejao WITHOUT Green at the 4, you're hosed

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:23

Spacebump: Dec 24, 2003; Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Tae posted:

You're taking this the wrong way. I'm not saying there's no place for good centers. I'm saying playing McAdoo and Varejao the time they did cost them the margin enough for the Warriors to lose. The same way starting Mike Bibby and Big Z for the 2011 Heat did in the NBA Finals. You shorten the rotation, not play 13 man rotations which is completely Kerr's style.

Varejao does not defend, rebound, or score. He doesn't even box out. Playing Livingston 10 more minutes instead would be productive on some form of positive basketball.

The Heat never started Big Z during the 2011 Finals. Bibby starting wasn't an issue until Carlisle made Barea one of the starting guards. Then again, Barea has never lost a game while starting in the Finals.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:28

Tae: Oct 24, 2010; Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!

DeimosRising posted:

But there's no one to defend the paint and absorb fouls. Lebron and Irving will just go at the rim and Love I'll post up Green or Barnes over and over and they'll wrack up fouls. You're daring the refs not to shorten your rotation even more by fouling Green out, and if you lose that bet and have to play Varejao WITHOUT Green at the 4, you're hosed

Varejao and McAdoo were nowhere close to being able to foul on drives because they are bad at defense.

In your situation, literally nothing helps the Warriors last year. They are hosed regardless, but are less hosed if they stop playing their literal worst players 12-15 minutes.

Let's try to better understand each other: How does Varejao, Speights, McAdoo, and Ezeli stop people in the paint? Because they cannot. Your argument seems to be that they need filler minutes, I argue that those filler minutes are so detrimental that they are better off risking fouling out and being a little more tired down the stretch.

The Cavs played 8 man in the final game because playing anyone outside of that core would've let the Warriors win.

Spacebump posted:

The Heat never started Big Z during the 2011 Finals. Bibby starting wasn't an issue until Carlisle made Barea one of the starting guards. Then again, Barea has never lost a game while starting in the Finals.

Your right. I forgot they stopped starting Big Z in the conference Finals back when around Udonis Haslem rose from the grave and dunked on the Bulls.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:35

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

DeimosRising posted:

You can't play Draymond at C for 35 minutes. He will foul out

disagree

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:35

Dejan Bimble: Mar 24, 2008; we're all black friends; Plaster Town Cop

EvanTH posted:

guys I know this might sound revisionist but Michael Jordan was really really good

Please do not troll

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:44

Ghost Dog: Aug 17, 2016

DeimosRising posted:

But there's no one to defend the paint and absorb fouls. Lebron and Irving will just go at the rim and Love I'll post up Green or Barnes over and over and they'll wrack up fouls. You're daring the refs not to shorten your rotation even more by fouling Green out, and if you lose that bet and have to play Varejao WITHOUT Green at the 4, you're hosed

they wont kick draymond out for 2 techs i doubt they will for 6 fouls

also a warrior fan was letting me know that verajao is more than good enough to be the best player on a playoff team. should have had more minutes if anything imo

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:49

DeimosRising: Oct 17, 2005; �Hola SEA!

Tae posted:

Varejao and McAdoo were nowhere close to being able to foul on drives because they are bad at defense.

In your situation, literally nothing helps the Warriors last year. They are hosed regardless, but are less hosed if they stop playing their literal worst players 12-15 minutes.

Let's try to better understand each other: How does Varejao, Speights, McAdoo, and Ezeli stop people in the paint? Because they cannot. Your argument seems to be that they need filler minutes, I argue that those filler minutes are so detrimental that they are better off risking fouling out and being a little more tired down the stretch.

The Cavs played 8 man in the final game because playing anyone outside of that core would've let the Warriors win.

Your right. I forgot they stopped starting Big Z in the conference Finals back when around Udonis Haslem rose from the grave and dunked on the Bulls.

Look, in reality they mostly did what you're suggesting. In game six when Green came back he played 40 minutes. Ezeli, Mcadoo, and Varejao played a combined 24. If they played all of those at the 5 then Green was playing 5 about 24 minutes and 4 about 16 minutes. He had 5 fouls and 8 points, and since Thompson was able to credibly guard him they didn't have to go small and give Barnes a matchup he could play against (he went 0/8). In game 7 Dray played 46! Minutes and Ezeli/Varejao 19 minutes. Green was on fire from three and had a great game on both sides of the ball.

It's two games and we can't be sure from that how it would play out long term. But someone has to be guarding the paint. Sometimes Dray can do that as well as anyone. Sometimes he gets in foul trouble immediately and your defense collapses. The Cavs demonstrated in those two games how vulnerable the Warriors were to constant drives. How much more could they play Green?

No one thinks it's good to play bad players. But "play your best guys maximum minutes regardless of position" is the Dantoni Method and it gets regularly mocked and is a major part of why his defenses are bad and his teams gas out

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:59

Mr. Mambold: Feb 13, 2011; Aha. Nice post.

Sports Argument Stadium � NBA Playoffs 2016-17 G/V: The Posts Are Bad Now

# ? Jun 11, 2017 18:59

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

WhyteRyce posted:

Water is wet
https://twitter.com/sam_amick/status/873677529734762496

Zaza!!!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEKB7pi1mbc

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:11

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; "..The high ground"

Zaza is a basketball hero.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:14

Dejan Bimble: Mar 24, 2008; we're all black friends; Plaster Town Cop

DeimosRising posted:

Look, in reality they mostly did what you're suggesting. In game six when Green came back he played 40 minutes. Ezeli, Mcadoo, and Varejao played a combined 24. If they played all of those at the 5 then Green was playing 5 about 24 minutes and 4 about 16 minutes. He had 5 fouls and 8 points, and since Thompson was able to credibly guard him they didn't have to go small and give Barnes a matchup he could play against (he went 0/8). In game 7 Dray played 46! Minutes and Ezeli/Varejao 19 minutes. Green was on fire from three and had a great game on both sides of the ball.

It's two games and we can't be sure from that how it would play out long term. But someone has to be guarding the paint. Sometimes Dray can do that as well as anyone. Sometimes he gets in foul trouble immediately and your defense collapses. The Cavs demonstrated in those two games how vulnerable the Warriors were to constant drives. How much more could they play Green?

No one thinks it's good to play bad players. But "play your best guys maximum minutes regardless of position" is the Dantoni Method and it gets regularly mocked and is a major part of why his defenses are bad and his teams gas out

Every single adjusted plus minus sort of stat says that being a really large person and just standing in the way is a net gain on defense in the aggregate. I want to agree with you.
The finals are a very small set of games and if someone is just cooked like Varejao, whose only contributions were okay box outs and flopping for offensive fouls, it might be better to leave them on the bench, especially when you only have 200 possessions or so left. I agree in general that you need bigs to save wear and tear on your more skilled less large players. I believe that it's observably true that being large and in the way is usually enough to add value on defense, but this is not any circumstance, it's a very specific circumstance against specific players.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:17

Henrik Zetterberg: Dec 7, 2007

jase1 posted:

My bookie offered it to me at +2500 He is now offering it at +1200. I assume that is close to what Vegas has.

I'd put $20 on that.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:25

Spacebump: Dec 24, 2003; Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Looking at the free agency center list makes me really wonder who the Warriors can get for next season that won't be a downgrade from the Zaza/JaVale rotation. It really wouldn't shock me to see both of them gone.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:26

DeimosRising: Oct 17, 2005; �Hola SEA!

Mr. Mambold posted:

Sports Argument Stadium � NBA Playoffs 2016-17 G/V: The Posts Are Bad Now

Awww

Dejan Bimble posted:

Every single adjusted plus minus sort of stat says that being a really large person and just standing in the way is a net gain on defense in the aggregate. I want to agree with you.
The finals are a very small set of games and if someone is just cooked like Varejao, whose only contributions were okay box outs and flopping for offensive fouls, it might be better to leave them on the bench, especially when you only have 200 possessions or so left. I agree in general that you need bigs to save wear and tear on your more skilled less large players. I believe that it's observably true that being large and in the way is usually enough to add value on defense, but this is not any circumstance, it's a very specific circumstance against specific players.

Sure. But Green already played 46 minutes in g7. He can't play no more minutes. Should they all have been at the 5? Is the step up from 18 minutes of Ezeli/Varejao better than the step down giving 16 more minutes at the 4 to, presumably, Barnes/Iggy/maybe Speights? In this specific circumstance against a Cavs team with Irving and Lebron, I think that just exacerbates the issue they really had - Lebron and Irving could beat their guy over and over and get inside, where Green was not enough to stop them by himself and Barnes/Iggy/Speights were not providing value in help defense.

This year they can put Durant at the 4. That's a whole different kettle of fish

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:33

Tae: Oct 24, 2010; Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!

Spacebump posted:

Looking at the free agency center list makes me really wonder who the Warriors can get for next season that won't be a downgrade from the Zaza/JaVale rotation. It really wouldn't shock me to see both of them gone.

If Zaza wanted money, he could've gotten it. Same with Nene. They took a discount to join teams to ring chase while still wanting major roles.

No one talks about losing David West, he's easily the 2nd best traditional Center on the team. Good passer, aggressive on post-ups for mismatches, can stretch the floor a bit. A shame he's not allowed to play in the 1st quarter.

If anyone's joining the Warriors for the center spot, it's anyone that is willing to take the minimum and that could be anyone that's 32+.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:37

EvanTH: Apr 24, 2004; i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

Dejan Bimble posted:

Please do not troll

It's a reflex action and well beyond my conscious control. Blame the bridge not the troll.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:41

Brolander: Oct 20, 2008; i am but a vessel

lol that guy from the 87 finals video is an idiot. the burns weren't even good, if he was funny it'd be one thing

we need a Bench Goon to put out zaza's eye with a well timed finger poke

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:44

Spacebump: Dec 24, 2003; Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Tae posted:

If Zaza wanted money, he could've gotten it. Same with Nene. They took a discount to join teams to ring chase while still wanting major roles.

No one talks about losing David West, he's easily the 2nd best traditional Center on the team. Good passer, aggressive on post-ups for mismatches, can stretch the floor a bit. A shame he's not allowed to play in the 1st quarter.

If anyone's joining the Warriors for the center spot, it's anyone that is willing to take the minimum and that could be anyone that's 32+.

I understand that Zaza could have gotten more money and went to ring chase. He will have a ring after this season so he might want to get a bigger pay check again. I wouldn't be shocked if he did it so he had more money for charities back in Georgia. Though it also wouldn't shock me if he stayed or became a worse player next season. The free agent centers that are 32+ are all worse than Zaza. (unless I'm missing someone.)

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:50

TildeATH: Oct 21, 2010; by Lowtax

Ghost Dog posted:

they wont kick draymond out for 2 techs i doubt they will for 6 fouls

You're getting so salty, pretty soon Ghandi is going to lead a march with 79 others to you to protest British Imperialism.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 19:55

Redgrendel2001: Sep 1, 2006; you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

https://twitter.com/Team_KB24/status/719771006575845376

# ? Jun 11, 2017 20:12

Dejan Bimble: Mar 24, 2008; we're all black friends; Plaster Town Cop

DeimosRising posted:

Awww

Sure. But Green already played 46 minutes in g7. He can't play no more minutes. Should they all have been at the 5? Is the step up from 18 minutes of Ezeli/Varejao better than the step down giving 16 more minutes at the 4 to, presumably, Barnes/Iggy/maybe Speights? In this specific circumstance against a Cavs team with Irving and Lebron, I think that just exacerbates the issue they really had - Lebron and Irving could beat their guy over and over and get inside, where Green was not enough to stop them by himself and Barnes/Iggy/Speights were not providing value in help defense.

This year they can put Durant at the 4. That's a whole different kettle of fish

I wasn't disagreeing with you, just pointing out that it was a sophie's choice, now we know it wasn't the winning choice, but we don't know how they could have won, all injuries and suspensions being the same. I guess Harrison Barnes not being the biggest choker in the world, a playoff paul george, an anti Joe Johnson sort of figure, would have probably given them the series.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 20:12

Rick: Feb 23, 2004; When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

DeimosRising posted:

Lol but also really unfair. Both of those teams were extremely efficient and high pace, long post isos into bricked shots is not representative of a typical series of possessions for them.

It's a lot funnier to me that the dull-witted people think that you can somehow score as much or more than the Warriors currently score without shooting threes via slow post-ups.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 21:17

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

a good 3 is like a 30% shot and playing The Right Way will give you guaranteed layups. 0.3 * 3 < 2, case closed

# ? Jun 11, 2017 21:27

DeimosRising: Oct 17, 2005; �Hola SEA!

Shear Modulus posted:

a good 3 is like a 30% shot and playing The Right Way will give you guaranteed layups. 0.3 * 3 < 2, case closed

Not gonna pretend that more 3s wouldn't have been helpful for the Showtime style but they did have two guys take more than a three per game and those two guys shot .385 and .436. They knew if you could hit them you should take them, they just erroneously believed you couldn't reliably hit them at volume.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 21:37

EvanTH: Apr 24, 2004; i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

TildeATH posted:

You're getting so salty, pretty soon Ghandi is going to lead a march with 79 others to you to protest British Imperialism.

just because Gandhi was misspelled on Chuck's graphic before game 4 doesn't mean everyone has to start doing it aghghh

# ? Jun 11, 2017 21:39

RaySmuckles: Oct 14, 2009; Grimey Drawer

Spacebump posted:

I understand that Zaza could have gotten more money and went to ring chase. He will have a ring after this season so he might want to get a bigger pay check again. I wouldn't be shocked if he did it so he had more money for charities back in Georgia. Though it also wouldn't shock me if he stayed or became a worse player next season. The free agent centers that are 32+ are all worse than Zaza. (unless I'm missing someone.)

i have no idea if this is true or not, but i heard zaza's uncle or something was one of those crazy russian billionaires and he and his family already have more money than pretty much anyone can even make in the nba. so he could potentially not be in it for the money at all and he doesn't need to be that good, just do all the dirty work so the rest of the warriors can torch other teams.

long story short i can see zaza staying because he wants to be part of something bigger and doesn't really need the money (if that's true)

i can also see javale staying because he's getting "respect" for the first time in his career

# ? Jun 11, 2017 21:48

Ghost Dog: Aug 17, 2016

eh making narratives for any roleplayer to stay is easy but people want to be paid for the work they do

# ? Jun 11, 2017 22:36

RaySmuckles: Oct 14, 2009; Grimey Drawer

Ghost Dog posted:

eh making narratives for any roleplayer to stay is easy but people want to be paid for the work they do

true, these are just some things i've picked up lurking warriors fan sites

are they unbiased and purely factual? of course not. but they do know more about their players than i do.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 22:41

Ghost Dog: Aug 17, 2016

oh if its from fanboards then its prolly just straight up wrong. everyone thinks people should play for their team at a massive discount and be happy to do it.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 22:42

boop the snoot: Jun 3, 2016

Ghost Dog posted:

oh if its from fanboards then its prolly just straight up wrong. everyone thinks people should play for their team at a massive discount and be happy to do it.

False. I fully agree with any player who won't play for Orlando for less than a billion.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 22:44

BWV: Feb 24, 2005

Numerous people I know who I did not (at the time) consider idiots thought Durant would come to the Raps because he like Drake and was friendly with the roster.

# ? Jun 11, 2017 22:51