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Filthy Hans posted:what are the odds that Mueller gets axed by midnight Saturday? Might as well say Friday at high noon.
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Jun 21, 2017 13:51
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Filthy Hans posted:what are the odds that Mueller gets axed by midnight Saturday? probably very low. i don't think it's unlikely that he will be fired at some point, but i think we will see a concerted narrative push beforehand to pave the way. when you see the GOP doubling down on criticizing mueller for hiring team members who donated to clinton or somesuch, start to worry.
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Jun 21, 2017 13:56
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botany posted:probably very low. i don't think it's unlikely that he will be fired at some point, but i think we will see a concerted narrative push beforehand to pave the way. when you see the GOP doubling down on criticizing mueller for hiring team members who donated to clinton or somesuch, start to worry. If this were any other President, sure - there'd be a coherent strategy and direction. There will gen none of that with Trump. All of the 'paving' wil happen afterwards, as the GOP attempts to flatten out the rubble and slurry that Trump leaves in his wake. I think if Mueller gets fired, it'll be after a series of gently caress-ups and losses drive Trump to do it as something he thinks he can control and be in charge of and feel good and powerful about, so maybe if the Senate drops AHCA or infrastructure or some new bad scandals come out. But what the gently caress do I know, I thought Hillary would win (Also, thank you to people who complimented my post)
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Jun 21, 2017 14:03
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Filthy Hans posted:what are the odds that Mueller gets axed by midnight Saturday? Honestly it seemed a bit more likely a few day ago. I mean Trumps going to Trump so who the hell knows, but it does seem like he's been talked down for the moment. I would guess that the more the investigation is being talked about in the news the more likely it is for trump to go all Nixon on Muller. I wonder if any of Trumps aids have considered just cutting the Whitehouse cable TV feed, and just blame it on democrat leaning mice chewing through the cable or something. Edit: Yeah I don't see how their could be a concerted PR thing happening to soften up Mullers firing, just because that would involve people other then Trump thinking it's anything other then the most terrible idea ever, and even remotely survivable. Afterwards sure, what's done is done and cleaning up Trumps messes is a lot of peoples full time job, so there will be lot of Trump stuff spinning like hell to make it as uncomparable to Nixon as possible. Nixon did nothing wrong!!!! dr_rat fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 14:04
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skeleton warrior posted:If this were any other President, sure - there'd be a coherent strategy and direction. There will gen none of that with Trump. All of the 'paving' wil happen afterwards, as the GOP attempts to flatten out the rubble and slurry that Trump leaves in his wake. Firing Mueller is more complex than firing Comey and requires more people to be in the loop before it can happen. That doesn't mean Trump won't do it or try to do it, but it can't happen as suddenly as Comey's firing.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:20
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Paradoxish posted:Firing Mueller is more complex than firing Comey and requires more people to be in the loop before it can happen. That doesn't mean Trump won't do it or try to do it, but it can't happen as suddenly as Comey's firing. I'd like to believe that would be clear 'obstruction' given the steps required, but, well, why put trust in congress?
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Jun 21, 2017 14:20
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Mendrian posted:Why are some of you so invested in 'predicting' what every political burp and hiccup will look like from now until the end of Trump's reign? Like, being right about an electoral outcome will never get you your Nostradamus merit badge. I think a serious part of the problem is the left using all of its political energy trying to guess outcomes like it's the loving weather, like human beings can't possibly have any impact on it. It's pretty gross, guys. I made a couple grand on trump winning  A couple hundred last night on Handel What amazes me is how these same people who were completely blindsided by trumps win in the primary, and then the general election, continue to try and make predictions like they have any clue at all what drives elections or why people vote. TROIKA CURES GREEK fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 14:23
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:I made a couple grand on trump winning Yeah, it's one thing with Democracies. America is a different beast entirely.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:30
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If we'd seen Ossoff win the other night, today we'd all be talking about how Ossoff's win was pathetic and he'd have made a much bigger win if he'd only been a leftist.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:32
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Covok posted:As is liberalism. We have the government Americ wants. People just need to realize that racist conservatism is the real America. Then, you will learn just how lovely this nation truly is and how it is truly beyond saving. These statements are all correct.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:33
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/877515038692659202
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Jun 21, 2017 14:35
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hey guys what are the odds trump fires handel
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Jun 21, 2017 14:36
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:What amazes me is how these same people who were completely blindsided by trumps win in the primary, and then the general election, continue to try and make predictions like they have any clue at all what drives elections or why people vote. Milquetoast neoliberalism gets unlimited mulligans as its bonus ability.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:37
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skylined! posted:hey guys Well his buddy Duterte jailed a senator a couple months back for speaking against him, so i guess it depends on how far is idolizing goes
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Jun 21, 2017 14:38
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for the broke/sadbrains https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/877515596887470080 this does actually suggest a dem wave in 2018, especially with the rate of which trump continues to rapidfuck support and demoralize republicans, while providing more to work with to energize democrats you can doom and gloom all you want, but a +8 swing toward democrats in heavy red districts just five loving months after this shithead took office is unprecedented
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Jun 21, 2017 14:39
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dead comedy forums posted:a thing, though: here in Brazil the Worker's Party did just that and now is crashing and burning and flailing in voter intention and federal investigations (well alongside everybody else but they got in with the perception of "hey these are the different guys!", but they hosed up exactly because of "well we got to be pragmatic") This is a perfect example of how people here seem to think-- cherry pick random anecdotes to fit your preconceived notions of how things work/ how people think. It's called curve fitting and it is exactly why so many people utterly loving suck at making predictions. A lot of people here just flat out don't understand how to process data.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:39
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Avirosb posted:Don't hate the players, hate the system. Venezuela.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:43
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Cerebral Bore posted:Milquetoast neoliberalism gets unlimited mulligans as its bonus ability.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:43
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Venezuela. This is a perfect example of how people here seem to think-- cherry pick random anecdotes to fit your preconceived notions of how things work/ how people think.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:45
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skylined! posted:for the broke/sadbrains Yeah, well, that's all well and good, but a few tangible victories now would be really helpful. I've completely lost faith in any kind of predictive model at this point because they don't take Democrat missteps and Republican spite into account.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:46
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Venezuela. Socialism would proably go down just as easy in America.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:47
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Ratoslov posted:If we'd seen Ossoff win the other night, today we'd all be talking about how Ossoff's win was pathetic and he'd have made a much bigger win if he'd only been a leftist. You're kind of being an idiot if you're reading anything at all into this result, in either direction. GA-06 was effectively a coin toss. If you think that Democrats have a messaging/candidate problem then there's nothing in this election that should convince you otherwise. If you think that Democrats are fine and just need to stay the course, then there's nothing in this election that should convince you otherwise. These special elections don't really matter in general. They're another data point onto the pile, but as long as Democrats keep performing in line with their polling they aren't actually providing any new information.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:48
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It sure is nice how every loss is a perfect validation of my own personal vision of how the left should proceed. Sucks about all the other poo poo, but hey.
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Jun 21, 2017 14:49
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LaserShark posted:Yeah, well, that's all well and good, but a few tangible victories now would be really helpful. I've completely lost faith in any kind of predictive model at this point because they don't take Democrat missteps and Republican spite into account. ya, i too want a win. don't let great continue to be the enemy of good though, and close your blinds and suck your thumb for a week in your sick sad little world during midterms the rhetorical you(r), i mean
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Jun 21, 2017 14:51
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Actually it's a good thing the Democrats lost elections in multiple semi competitive districts against a party actively and imminently planning to deny healthcare coverage to 20 million Americans and whose leader has a 35% approval rating!
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Jun 21, 2017 14:55
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Paradoxish posted:You're kind of being an idiot if you're reading anything at all into this result, in either direction. GA-06 was effectively a coin toss. If you think that Democrats have a messaging/candidate problem then there's nothing in this election that should convince you otherwise. If you think that Democrats are fine and just need to stay the course, then there's nothing in this election that should convince you otherwise. What if we just ran candidates who talk about economic populism in places where economic populism can win, run more moderate establishment candidates in places where they can win, and invest in both?
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Jun 21, 2017 14:58
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Subvisual Haze posted:Actually it's a good thing the Democrats lost elections in multiple semi competitive districts against a party actively and imminently planning to deny healthcare coverage to 20 million Americans and whose leader has a 35% approval rating! - the districts were never meant to be competitive. that is precisely why the republicans were tapped for the positions they are in now - if dems took all 5 seats it would not change what is happening with the ahca
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Jun 21, 2017 14:59
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Good morning hell thread! I feel almost liberated that we have no more special elections to worry about.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:02
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skylined! posted:- the districts were never meant to be competitive. that is precisely why the republicans were tapped for the positions they are in now It might show that they have any plan at all to maybe one day unfuck things even a little
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Jun 21, 2017 15:02
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Subvisual Haze posted:Actually it's a good thing the Democrats lost elections in multiple semi competitive districts against a party actively and imminently planning to deny healthcare coverage to 20 million Americans and whose leader has a 35% approval rating! You think that a couple of house seats swinging D would have done... what, exactly in the immediate future?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:04
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I can't believe the Dems didn't take Mississippi!
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Jun 21, 2017 15:04
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Spiritus Nox posted:It might show that they have any plan at all to maybe one day unfuck things even a little there is a clear strategy, which can be inferred by the approach to the +8 average swing toward dems across the 5 elections engaging with it in argument is worthwhile. complaining that we aren't all in a perfect world this morning because dems hosed it up is not.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:07
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Xombie posted:You think that a couple of house seats swinging D would have done... what, exactly in the immediate future? For one thing, it would've dramatically decreased the odds of AHCA passing.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:07
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Xombie posted:You think that a couple of house seats swinging D would have done... what, exactly in the immediate future? Might have given some shakier AHCA votes reason to think that there might one day be actual consequences for passing a lethally terrible healthcare bill?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:07
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Z. Autobahn posted:For one thing, it would've dramatically decreased the odds of AHCA passing. how?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:08
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Spiritus Nox posted:It might show that they have any plan at all to maybe one day unfuck things even a little Are you under the impression that even a Democratic house is going to be able to do anything other than the same obstruction that we saw from Republicans under Obama?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:08
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What time is Jeh Johnson testifying?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:09
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yeah why didn't the dems take the seats in the incredibly safe districts where the gop advised trump it would be safe to create a special election by nominating the current congressperson? the world is ending and i am so sadskylined! posted:how? by scaring the GOP into being more centrist
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Jun 21, 2017 15:10
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skylined! posted:how? Congressional Republicans (especially Senate) would feel their seats were at risk from being tied too closely to Trump and would've been much more likely to break with him; instead, their takeway is "See? Our base still likes him, and that's what matters".
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Jun 21, 2017 15:10
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Spiritus Nox posted:Might have given some shakier AHCA votes reason to think that there might one day be actual consequences for passing a lethally terrible healthcare bill? Basically this. Republicans keep getting rewarded for ruining the country, even if they aren't winning by as much as they like. A win is still a win.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:10
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