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Xombie posted:Are you under the impression that even a Democratic house is going to be able to do anything other than the same obstruction that we saw from Republicans under Obama? Obstruction would be a tremendous improvement on where things are at now, actually.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:10
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I assume when picking cabinet members that are currently in office, one of the things considered is how vulnerable their seats would be? When was the last time a seat flipped parties during a special election caused by a presidential appointment?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:11
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Z. Autobahn posted:For one thing, it would've dramatically decreased the odds of AHCA passing. Unless the D's swept them (which they were never going to do), there is nothing dramatic that it would have done to the chances of the AHCA passing.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:12
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McConnell wouldn't give a poo poo if Ossoff won. He is determined to ram the AHCA through no matter what. I think the deteriorating situation with the Trump WH is also motivating him to get this done ASAP. I'm just wondering if he has the votes.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:12
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Xombie posted:Unless the D's swept them (which they were never going to do), there is nothing dramatic that it would have done to the chances of the AHCA passing. You don't need anything dramatic to block AHCA. You need 3 Senators feeling skittish. Right now, they're all feeling joyful and emboldened.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:12
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Spiritus Nox posted:Obstruction would be a tremendous improvement on where things are at now, actually. Right, with all of this legislation that's whizzing through congress. I swear that you guys don't even actually follow politics beyond reading tweets in this thread.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:14
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skylined! posted:there is a clear strategy, which can be inferred by the approach to the +8 average swing toward dems across the 5 elections You mean the 5 elections of which four were basically written off by the national party? Doesn't seem like the result of much strategic acumen on their part to me.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:14
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Democracy is like a team of oxen - you have to pull really hard to the left to shift course a little bit. Just hang in there. Progressivism is making some gains, and we have to keep pulling. No part of this administration is normal or okay.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:15
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Xombie posted:Right, with all of this legislation that's whizzing through congress. But...but...Any Day Now! 
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Jun 21, 2017 15:15
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Z. Autobahn posted:You don't need anything dramatic to block AHCA. You need 3 Senators feeling skittish. Right now, they're all feeling joyful and emboldened. Yeah I'm sure that the R's in swing districts are feeling joyful and emboldened that hard-R districts are getting competitive and the GOP has to pump tons of money into what were safe havens. Absolutely over the moon. And that's not even with the poo poo passed and a year of rising premiums. Just with the threat of it.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:15
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FlamingLiberal posted:McConnell wouldn't give a poo poo if Ossoff won. He is determined to ram the AHCA through no matter what. I think the deteriorating situation with the Trump WH is also motivating him to get this done ASAP. I'm just wondering if he has the votes. I don't give a poo poo what Mitch McConnell thinks, I care whether some skittish blue/ish state Republican has reason to fear for his seat if he goes along with Mitch.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:16
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Xombie posted:Yeah I'm sure that the R's in swing districts are feeling joyful and emboldened that hard-R districts are getting competitive and the GOP has to pump tons of money into what were safe havens. Absolutely over the moon.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:16
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FlamingLiberal posted:McConnell wouldn't give a poo poo if Ossoff won. He is determined to ram the AHCA through no matter what. I think the deteriorating situation with the Trump WH is also motivating him to get this done ASAP. I'm just wondering if he has the votes. Of course they have the votes. A handful will have their staff put out a press release detailing how troubled they are with some random section of the bill and then they'll all vote in lockstep.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:17
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The Handel campaign raised $4.5 million and outside groups spent $18.2 million. This district should have cost the GOP $0.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:19
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Xombie posted:Yeah I'm sure that the R's in swing districts are feeling joyful and emboldened that hard-R districts are getting competitive and the GOP has to pump tons of money into what were safe havens. Absolutely over the moon. Honestly? Yes. Yes, they are. Look, this isn't a rational matter. It's 'gut'. Any rational analysis would tell you passing AHCA is a terrible idea. They're going off gut and emotion, and right now, their guts are happy.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:19
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Z. Autobahn posted:You don't need anything dramatic to block AHCA. You need 3 Senators feeling skittish. Right now, they're all feeling joyful and emboldened. Reminder that they literally got hunted for the AHCA a week ago, I doubt 'emboldened' is the feeling in on the hill. Now maybe that's motivating for them on account of feeding their persecution complex, but these aren't confident well-liked leaders.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:20
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Skippy Granola posted:Democracy is like a team of oxen - you have to pull really hard to the left to shift course a little bit. Can you explain what gains progressivism is making please
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Jun 21, 2017 15:20
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Like, I'm not Gloom-And-Dooming; I think in 2018 prognostication terms, the elections last night give the Dems good odds to take the House (though I wish they were better). But it's also naive to deny that right now, there's a celebratory relieved mood among Republicans, and that's going to make them more likely, not less, to stick with the agenda.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:20
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Maybe the Democratic Party needs to rebrand itself the Freedom Party and go bananas. You're not against the party of freedom, are you? 
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Jun 21, 2017 15:21
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Skippy Granola posted:Democracy is like a team of oxen - you have to pull really hard to the left to shift course a little bit. I'm pretty sure the tens of thousands of people who are going to die in the next few years don't feel very comforted at the idea that "progressivism is making some gains" when those gains are "We're not losing AS BADLY as we might have" in a game where anything short of a win is 100% meaningless. The GOP are delighted. They're not taking this as a loss. They're taking it as proof they can do whatever and win.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:21
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Z. Autobahn posted:Like, I'm not Gloom-And-Dooming; I think in 2018 prognostication terms, the elections last night give the Dems good odds to take the House (though I wish they were better). But it's also naive to deny that right now, there's a celebratory relieved mood among Republicans, and that's going to make them more likely, not less, to stick with the agenda. Has the 538 guy or anyone else extrapolated the actual vs demographic for the 5 special elections to all house districts?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:22
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Maybe the answer is somewhere in the middle
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Jun 21, 2017 15:22
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ImpAtom posted:I'm pretty sure the tens of thousands of people who are going to die in the next few years don't feel very comforted at the idea that "progressivism is making some gains" when those gains are "We're not losing AS BADLY as we might have" in a game where anything short of a win is 100% meaningless. You really think 8-12 points movement towards the left is 100% meaningless?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:24
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Reik posted:The Handel campaign raised $4.5 million and outside groups spent $18.2 million. This district should have cost the GOP $0. Your point isn't wrong, but it's not like they wasted that money. That money was spent because they wanted to hold onto that seat, which is exactly what they did. The takeaway from this can just as easily be that Republicans are capable of raising the resources necessary to defend their seats even in the face of an overwhelmingly unpopular president.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:24
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Z. Autobahn posted:Honestly? Yes. Yes, they are. They are actual politicians, not NPC's in a video game. There's nothing a +8 Dem swing doesn't achieve that a +10 one would. Either they give a poo poo about their reelection chances or they don't. If they're willing to ram the legislation through at their own peril, then 2-3 Dems actually winning wouldn't matter. Actually passing it just fucks them even further and makes it even more likely they'll be voted out despite whatever grinding slog of lovely legislation they manage to hammer out.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:25
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Dietrich posted:by scaring the GOP into being more centrist You mean that thing that hasn't happened in living memory?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:25
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Skippy Granola posted:Democracy is like a team of oxen - you have to pull really hard to the left to shift course a little bit. This is your reminder that climate change will literally end civilization before our culture breaks away from its current course.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:26
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Z. Autobahn posted:Like, I'm not Gloom-And-Dooming; I think in 2018 prognostication terms, the elections last night give the Dems good odds to take the House (though I wish they were better). But it's also naive to deny that right now, there's a celebratory relieved mood among Republicans, and that's going to make them more likely, not less, to stick with the agenda. No one with a working brain thought that they were going to abandon their agenda. The only thing that's possible is slowing it down, which is already being accomplished.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:27
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Dietrich posted:You really think 8-12 points movement towards the left is 100% meaningless? Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, chum
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Jun 21, 2017 15:27
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Paradoxish posted:Your point isn't wrong, but it's not like they wasted that money. That money was spent because they wanted to hold onto that seat, which is exactly what they did. The takeaway from this can just as easily be that Republicans are capable of raising the resources necessary to defend their seats even in the face of an overwhelmingly unpopular president. They've only got so much money though, even if they have a lot. When defending a couple specific districts they can raise the resources, but can they when it's every house seat where republicans historically lead by 15 or less? If you assume the deeper red a district is the less amount of money they will need to spend to defend it, how much would they be spending in a district that may only lean +5-7 R historically?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:28
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ImpAtom posted:The GOP are delighted. They're not taking this as a loss. They're taking it as proof they can do whatever and win. You are absolutely delusional if you thought they were going to abandon their agenda with an Ossof win. They don't care about proof or winning, they just care about ramming their agenda through. The only thing that can be accomplished is shaking enough of them that the process gets slowed enough to stall for longer. "I was totally afraid that my R+2 district was going to be lost next year, but now that a previously R+35 district was down to 2 points with just the threat of this legislation I'm about to pass, I'm totally emboldened!" says absolutely no one in this physical reality. If they go through with their agenda, it's not because they're happy, it's because they know they're hosed and are going kamikaze. Xombie fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 15:28
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Is this the part of the week where we consume ourselves?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:30
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sean10mm posted:You mean that thing that hasn't happened in living memory? There are plenty of people alive that remember moderate republicans.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:30
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Reik posted:They've only got so much money though, even if they have a lot. When defending a couple specific districts they can raise the resources, but can they when it's every house seat where republicans historically lead by 15 or less? If you assume the deeper red a district is the less amount of money they will need to spend to defend it, how much would they be spending in a district that may only lean +5-7 R historically? On the other end of that, though, can the Dems and other left-leaning organizations really pour enough money and candidates into these races to make the danger real or has too much ammunition already been spent?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:32
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Whoops guess a district by-election in rightwing Georgia has broken the left. Republicans are not winning as big as they used to, plenty of their leadership have hitched their wagons to a deeply unpopular probable criminal, and their vaunted healthcare bill may not even pass. Plus, regular folks are getting mad and paying attention. Hush your unproductive sadbrains
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Jun 21, 2017 15:33
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Lightning Lord posted:Is this the part of the week where we consume ourselves? You mean the whole week?
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Jun 21, 2017 15:34
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Change might be extremely slow but it is still supposed to be visible. It'll take time, yes, but it helps if we can see it happening.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:35
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skylined! posted:for the broke/sadbrains Predicting 2018 seems utterly pointless. Not because ive lost faith in any polls, but because so much poo poo is going to happen between now and the midterms that what people think right now wont matter in the slightest. Hell, with how much crazy poo poo happens at the last minute, I wouldnt try to predict the midterms a week before they happened,
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Jun 21, 2017 15:35
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Xombie posted:They are actual politicians, not NPC's in a video game. There's nothing a +8 Dem swing doesn't achieve that a +10 one would. It's precisely because they're humans, not machines, that the difference between winning and losing, between maximum consequences and none at all, is orders of magnitude more meaningful than shaving numbers off the margin of victory.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:36
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Ratoslov posted:You mean the whole week? The self-consumption never stops, this thread is an infinite ouroboros.
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