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Xombie posted:They have a chance to swing the House but not the Senate in 2018. Why do they not have a chance to swing the senate? 8 R seats are up and they only need 3 + the number of seats they lose from their 23. 
Reik fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 16:02
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For those of you trying to parse these events into a fatalistic march towards America's demise, ask yourself if you would vote for a twelve year old who is an honor roll student at your local elementary school who also won the Thanksgiving hand turkey award. Ossof represented everything people in this region dislike about Democrats- young, entitled, and aloof. Republicans hammered those nails deep into the consciousness of their base and Ossof didn't have the faculties to dispel those notions. He wasn't the candidate to ride the wave of discontent and his age, inexperience, and Vanilla disposition didn't pull the 60+ white male voting bloc towards him. Anecdotally, his age alone put a lot of moderate Republicans off of him that I discussed his chances with, people basically saw him as the neighbors kid instead of the ham-faced, bitchy, neighbor that Handel is. It's going to take someone that has a working knowledge of the different types of camouflage, owns several semi-automatic rifles, doesn't appear vegan, drives a truck, can quote scripture, is a male 40-55, successful personal life, attractive wife/kids, ideally a background with military service but can parlay all of that into a genuine concern with the environment, regulation of big business, and progressive social norms. Ossof wasn't close to that guy and his loss shouldn't be taken as a mortal blow.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:03
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Lightning Lord posted:So what do you want? Every D voter to roll over and die in the face of overwhelming odds? many people itt are just lashing out and throwing tantrums because they feel powerless in american politics right now and this thread is their main source of political interaction, and the only place they can exercise some control. it's like a toddler throwing their toys ImpAtom posted:No it isn't. sorry for telling you to calm down and have some perspective is actively damaging maybe you should take a break
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Jun 21, 2017 16:03
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"if you dont indulge my mortal fears of being killed, to death, by republicans in my sleep then you are not my ally and you should stop talking about how this thing im freaking out about isnt actually a big deal. i have the right as an american citizen to have panic attacks, thank you"
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Jun 21, 2017 16:06
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ImpAtom posted:The optimists in this thread don't care about they. They genuinely don't care about the people who are going to die or suffer or anything of the sort. They just want to cling to "See, it isn't as bad a loss as it could be and even if they won it wouldn't have mattered anyway! The GOP is celebrating because it didn't matter and they didn't care!" This is the very essence of tone policing. Get over yourself. You are not "helping" anyone with brokebrain complaints and delusions about what the Democrats could achieve with 2 house seats. quote:You mean the SCOTUS seat they won. Using an example of it paying off perfectly for them isn't actually meaningful. You're also pretending like blocking the Supreme Court seat had any negative impact on them. it emboldened their base and Democratic voters clearly didn't think it was important enough to get out and vote for. That's nice, but I never claimed it affected votes.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:06
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Reik posted:Why do they not have a chance to swing the senate? 8 R seats are up and they only need 3 + the number of seats they lose from their 23. Because 7 of those 8 seats are in deep red states. They won in 2012 with 55%+ of the vote. edit: correction, Flake won with 49% of the vote. Arizona is the most threatened of the 7 seats, which gives some context to how safe they are. Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 16:08
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boner confessor posted:no he didn't? we dont know exactly how hillary did in the 6th since that district didn't vote for electors (fulton county did) but ossof greatly outperformed the dem on the ballot in 2016 during the general, and came within a few dozen votes of topping all time dem turnout for the district in a special election https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0
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Jun 21, 2017 16:08
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Xombie posted:The literal only reason Democrats put any money into the race was because it was a special election. They will ignore any district like that next year. The lesson they got was that $22.5m bough them a huge Democratic swing. That's an extremely expensive lesson. ImpAtom posted:No it isn't. :agreed;
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Jun 21, 2017 16:08
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Reik posted:Why do they not have a chance to swing the senate? 8 R seats are up and they only need 3 + the number of seats they lose from their 23. Those senate seats are in deep republican territory. It would take a miracle .
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Jun 21, 2017 16:09
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enraged_camel posted:That's an extremely expensive lesson. It's literally what the money is there for.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:10
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TyrantWD posted:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0 clinton got 46% of the vote in ga-6. ossoff got 48%. think real hard, just dig down real deep into yourself, and figure out if 46 is a higher or a lower number than 48. then you will know if ossoff underperformed or overperformed compared to clinton
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Jun 21, 2017 16:10
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Reik posted:Why do they not have a chance to swing the senate? 8 R seats are up and they only need 3 + the number of seats they lose from their 23. The Senate map for 2018 is one that, historically, the Democrats would lose seats in. They're defending in red states and swing states while the Republicans have less of a minefield to walk through, all while already controlling the majority of seats that are up for reelection. It's not impossible for Democrats to pick up seats in this kind of situation, but a net loss is a more likely outcome even with an environment that's pretty toxic for Republicans. If Trump were actually capable of getting his head above water (lol) it'd be pretty close to a guarantee that Republicans would be expanding their Senate majority next year.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:13
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boner confessor posted:clinton got 46% of the vote in ga-6. ossoff got 48%. think real hard, just dig down real deep into yourself, and figure out if 46 is a higher or a lower number than 48. then you will know if ossoff underperformed or overperformed compared to clinton Hillary trailed Trump by 1.5, Ossoff lost by more than that.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:13
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Run Tammy Duckworth, break the nation.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:13
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Z. Autobahn posted:Congressional Republicans (especially Senate) would feel their seats were at risk from being tied too closely to Trump and would've been much more likely to break with him; instead, their takeway is "See? Our base still likes him, and that's what matters". this is dumb. the data from these elections didn't magically disappear just because dems didn't win the seats. republicans in moderate and purple districts are still going to be concerned for their re-elections, as republican turnout was significantly lower in most of these special elections while democrat turnout higher. as easy as it is to believe, republicans aren't babies playing peek-a-boo with voting data disappearing entirely once someone wins a seat.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:13
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I'm not sadbraining anyone... I just think going "All is lost, time to die" in response to GA-6 is what the MAGAHats want. Demoralization is a kind of voter suppression.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:14
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I can't believe people are being yelled at for not  ing enough.You must panic this much to post here.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:16
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TyrantWD posted:Hillary trailed Trump by 1.5, Ossoff lost by more than that. This apple is significantly different from this orange, I agree.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:16
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TyrantWD posted:Hillary trailed Trump by 1.5, Ossoff lost by more than that. and? ossoff got a higher proportion of the vote than hillary. he got closer to winning. at least you're not talking about how the sky itself is collapsing now that i've given you a makework job of moving goalposts about
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Jun 21, 2017 16:17
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Lightning Lord posted:I'm not sadbraining anyone... I just think going "All is lost, time to die" in response to GA-6 is what the MAGAHats want. Demoralization is a kind of voter suppression.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:17
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Relax people. We'll have plenty to celebrate when the Democrats lose by an even smaller margin in 2018 and win the popular vote by an even higher amount in 2020!
Fame Douglas fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 16:17
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TyrantWD posted:Hillary trailed Trump by 1.5, Ossoff lost by more than that. 51.9% + 48.1% = 100%. There were third parties in the presidential election.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:19
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Go to the fuckin Democrats thread or something. gently caress off. Isn't there Trump news to talk about? Is Flynn talking or what?
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Jun 21, 2017 16:19
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It's almost as though GA-6 GOP voters going for one of the two third party candidates that represented their political views out of severe dislike of the GOP candidate depressed their votes for the GOP presidential candidate. If only there were another race on the same ballot we could look at to discern their typical preferences.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:19
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ImpAtom posted:No it isn't. First of all, gently caress you. One's level of aggressive posturing toward the Democrats doesn't say poo poo about how much we care about peoples lives and livelihood. I'm loving livid about the AHCA and am actively rallying friends and family around it. I'm really disappointed by the GA loss, and I didn't have much love for Ossoff or the style of Democratic politicking that he represented. An Ossoff win may well have spooked enough Senators to shut the AHCA away, at least for a time. But now it won't, so we'll have to mobilize along other fronts. But nonetheless, shifting voting margins do actually mean something, and there are enough seats with a lower baseline margin that can be exploited in 2018. The Democrats do need to shift their strategy to drive their youth vote and base, but if you're going to run a competitive race in every district, an explicitly dem soc/soc dem message isn't not going to win in many of those marginal district, especially not suburban Atlanta.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:21
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boner confessor posted:and the only place they can exercise some control. it's like a toddler throwing their toys What are you feeling? How did you react? What are the consequences? What is the acceptable way to act? Thread needs some parenting.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:21
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FlamingLiberal posted:Agreed...and this seat will be up for election again in about a year so it's not a huge loss besides the money that was spent Yeah and whenever Republicans lose that just revs them up more. Whenever Democrats lose, it causes us to weep and cry for aeons and consider never voting again. How do we fight this?
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Jun 21, 2017 16:22
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Cerebral Bore posted:You mean the 5 elections of which four were basically written off by the national party? Doesn't seem like the result of much strategic acumen on their part to me. i said there was a strategy, and arguing whether or not it was good or working is worthwhile. i have no idea if the strategy is good, since i'm not a pollster/political strategist. i imagine if their funds are limited, and these special elections are somewhat without meaning, that they are testing the waters - what sort of dem support can happen organically in heavy R districts as a result of the republican agenda just loving sucking vs. what spending can do. wondering how many of you will be here apologizing if the dem wave is real and they retake the house en masse in 2018.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:23
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Lightning Lord posted:Yeah and whenever Republicans lose that just revs them up more. Get hosed up?
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Jun 21, 2017 16:24
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boner confessor posted:many people itt are just lashing out and throwing tantrums because they feel powerless in american politics right now and this thread is their main source of political interaction, and the only place they can exercise some control. it's like a toddler throwing their toys I think that ImpAtom's post perfectly illustrates how their primary interest in politics is feeling like they're superior to other people.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:24
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Lightning Lord posted:I'm not sadbraining anyone... I just think going "All is lost, time to die" in response to GA-6 is what the MAGHats want. Demoralization is a kind of voter suppression. "This is not good news and in fact is an actual loss and represents a serious problem" isn't the same as "It's time to die, give up hope forever!" Constantly going "this isn't a real problem, we don't need to worry that much about it" is part of why the Democratic Party is in the shape it is in. They are the experts at making excuses for why a loss isn't really a loss. Xombie posted:I think that ImpAtom's post perfectly illustrates how their primary interest in politics is feeling like they're superior to other people. Yes, that's my primary interest in politics, you got me. Thanks for proving my point about how you're more interested in being snide and smug than anything else though. Flip Yr Wig posted:First of all, gently caress you. One's level of aggressive posturing toward the Democrats doesn't say poo poo about how much we care about peoples lives and livelihood. I'm loving livid about the AHCA and am actively rallying friends and family around it. Sorry, I didn't mean every single person, I apologize. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 16:26
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aellisr posted:For those of you trying to parse these events into a fatalistic march towards America's demise, ask yourself if you would vote for a twelve year old who is an honor roll student at your local elementary school who also won the Thanksgiving hand turkey award. Ossof represented everything people in this region dislike about Democrats- young, entitled, and aloof. Republicans hammered those nails deep into the consciousness of their base and Ossof didn't have the faculties to dispel those notions. He wasn't the candidate to ride the wave of discontent and his age, inexperience, and Vanilla disposition didn't pull the 60+ white male voting bloc towards him. Anecdotally, his age alone put a lot of moderate Republicans off of him that I discussed his chances with, people basically saw him as the neighbors kid instead of the ham-faced, bitchy, neighbor that Handel is. do you have any electoral data to back this up or are you just shootin from the hip
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Jun 21, 2017 16:28
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The election loss has caused this thread to fly ossoff the handel.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:29
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ImpAtom posted:"This is not good news and in fact is an actual loss and represents a serious problem" isn't the same as "It's time to die, give up hope forever!" Constantly going "this isn't a real problem, we don't need to worry that much about it" is part of why the Democratic Party is in the shape it is in. They are the experts at making excuses for why a loss isn't really a loss. You know what dude. We're on ObamaCare. My wife is battling cancer. We are being destroyed financially and healthwise by them loving with plans and not actually fixing things. Healthcare is my primary concern throughout this election and everything else. I'm actually effected unlike most of you sadbrained trolls, and yet somehow I can still look at things realistically and critically without talking like the world is ending every five seconds. So gently caress off with all of it and post real content, you and all the rest of the broke brained dimwits.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:31
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ImpAtom posted:Yes, that's my primary interest in politics, you got me. I haven't actually been smug, at all. I haven't even been snide, really. I don't think that most of what you say constitutes cogent arguments, just wailing about how you feel about things, as if that's important or relevant to the greater political situation. You constantly demand that everyone kowtow and stroke your inflated ego. You even sink to screaming about how it's driven by how much you care about other people and what a great person that makes you compared to anyone who disagrees with your sadsack philosophy. You are the very caricature of "ivory tower liberal" that has made the blue collar constituency abandon the Democratic party.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:31
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Ague Proof posted:The election loss has caused this thread to fly ossoff the handel. It's been par for the course, really.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:32
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The GA-6 election is over and done with. The results suck, but can we talk about something else? Like this, for instance: http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/21/politics/russia-hacking-hearing-states-targeted/index.html
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Jun 21, 2017 16:34
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Xombie posted:It's been par for the course, really. Things honestly went to crap after all the permabans
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Jun 21, 2017 16:34
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F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:The GA-6 election is over and done with. The results suck, but can we talk about something else? Cool, the votes really were rigged.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:35
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I've kind of been kind of skipping around this thread so I might have missed this being posted about earlier, but I just learned that Alaska might be shutting down: http://juneauempire.com/state/2017-06-18/alaska-remains-course-statewide-shutdown-second-special-session-begins Which, yeah, seems pretty bad.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:38
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