China Economy Megathread

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MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

R. Guyovich posted:

is it.

On the other hand, Sudan.

# ? May 16, 2017 20:31

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# ? Apr 30, 2024 09:01

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

icantfindaname posted:

To be fair, at this point it doesn't seem like China is exercising the same influence on domestic politics that the US used to. That may change in the future but at the moment they're basically just running jobs programs for chinese construction workers in third world countries, not having the Chinese-CIA fund death squads to murder anyone who ever said a bad thing about the 5000 year reich

If you exclude places like Libya, the US has been pretty benevolent in Africa as of late. The Chinese appear to be using it either as a market for their goods or a source of raw materials. I had a friend in Djibouti who'd always comment on the surprising number of Chinese in the region.

# ? May 16, 2017 20:54

R. Guyovich: Dec 25, 1991

MiddleOne posted:

On the other hand, Sudan.

you'll need to be more specific

# ? May 16, 2017 22:00

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

R. Guyovich posted:

you'll need to be more specific

To say that China's role in Sudan during the time of the Darfur genocide was problematic would be to put it lightly.

# ? May 16, 2017 22:17

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Actually I have it on good authority that all of China's relationships with underdeveloped countries is basically a Maoist era propaganda poster but IRL

# ? May 16, 2017 22:56

wyldhoney: Nov 7, 2005; huh?

R. Guyovich posted:

the united states has destabilized the caribbean, overthrown governments there and stunted development for decades but the chinese might send tourists. may god have mercy on us all

Actually no, the Chinese aren't sending tourists. After each China-sponsored construction project in my country (a sports stadium and a mental health hospital so far), there has been a noticeable increase in new Chinese immigrants "left behind". In a majority black country with few ethnic Chinese nationals, it's quite striking.

The Chinese aren't going to be building any LEED certified buildings either. In a country that's home to the rarest snake in the world, as well as four other endemic and endangered species, I'm concerned about the environmental impact large reclamation projects of the type the Chinese like to build will have on our precious 238 square miles. Yes, we're literally a dot in the ocean.

What I'm afraid of us getting caught in what's being described as "debt-trap" diplomacy, where Chinese-fueled FDI completely overwhelms and distorts our sleepy island culture. I have no problem with Dubai, Macau, Vegas and Miami Beach....I just don't want to live in a place that looks like that.

The seemingly easy money is turning the heads of our banana republic leaders, and I know enough about fishing to know that buried inside that delicious-looking bait is a deadly sharp hook.

# ? May 17, 2017 20:15

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Well if your country is an island, it will be flooded by the 2nd coming anyway. So don't plan too far ahead.

# ? May 17, 2017 20:30

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

What's wrong with another 1,000 chinese bar/grocery stores?

# ? May 18, 2017 06:32

CAPS LOCK BROKEN: Feb 1, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

Why won't somebody think of the snakes??? -American concern troll

# ? May 18, 2017 16:02

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

Pevan Stan weighs in on the side of environmental devastation and extinction.

# ? May 19, 2017 00:48

fishmech: Jul 16, 2006; by VideoGames; Salad Prong

Bloodnose posted:

Pevan Stan weighs in on the side of environmental devastation and extinction.

You can't expect anything more from the guy who thinks any Asian who doesn't live in China, Japan or Korea is a jungle dweller.

# ? May 19, 2017 00:53

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

We can only look forward to the day when a Chinese state owned enterprise agent oranges up those jungles so we can fill them with concrete farmhouses to pad our GDP stats

# ? May 19, 2017 01:02

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

Peven Stan posted:

Why won't somebody think of the snakes??? -American concern troll

-han supremacist peven stan

# ? May 19, 2017 01:09

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-26/china-s-pension-gap-is-growing-and-nobody-wants-to-talk-about-it

quote:

China's Pension Gap is Growing as Aging Becomes Economic Risk
Demographics suggests China's pension gap is widening

It's no secret that China is an aging society facing a growing pensions bill. Just how much of that bill is unfunded seems to be one though.

It's an increasingly urgent question, as nearly a third of the inhabitants of the world's most populous country will be over 60 years old by 2050, according to United Nations data. By 2015, the pension of each retired resident was borne by the contributions of fewer than three wage-earners, government estimates show.

When China set up the current pension system in early 1990s, a shortfall immediately emerged, as the government began making payments to the already-retired using the current contributions of the working population, without there being any cash pile from the previous generation.

The problem was exacerbated in the late 1990s, when millions of workers at state-owned enterprises were laid off and were offered pensions even though they haven't reached retirement age.

There are a few unofficial estimates of the gap, such as that from Enodo Economics contributor Stuart Leckie, who has advised China's government on the matter. Leckie projects the hole will expand to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2019, weighing on public debt. No official data is available.

Data on the gap isn't available in the National Council for Social Security Fund's annual report. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security used to publish a report on China's social insurance in 2014 and 2015, which offered a glimpse into the nation's pension burden, but stopped doing so since 2016. The ministry didn't respond a request for comment.

"The lack of public information on the issue has made tackling it more difficult," says Yang Yansui, a public governance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, adding that the gap continues to widen and is more serious in places such as northeast China where state-led enterprises take up a bigger share in the economy.

The dynamic migration triggered by urbanization has led to a noticeable regional diversification in terms of the pension burden.

Pensioners in Guangdong are supported by more than nine working people, as young Chinese rush into the prosperous coastal province, seeking better opportunities and, when they find them, making contributions to the local pension fund.

The ratio of pensioners-to-working is about 1:1.5 in Jilin and Heilongjiang, two provinces in China's northeast rust belt, which has seen population outflows in recent years.

The pension burden adds to the fiscal stress in less-developed provinces and impedes their initiative to catch up with developed areas by improving public services and attracting outside investment.

The government appointed reform-minded official Lou Jiwei to head the National Council for Social Security Fund late last year, a sign that it's serious about dealing with the issue. And this year Premier Li Keqianq committed to transferring some of the profit of state-owned companies to the fund to fill the gap, but so far no updates have been released.

Enodo says the main problem is that the pensioner population will grow rapidly as the workforce dwindles, and that a more structural response than just plugging the hole is needed. "The answer is to raise the low retirement age and let pension funds invest in higher yielding assets," the report argues.

phew, and here I am thinking that the biggest problem is the severe gender imbalan

# ? Jun 27, 2017 04:41

Kassad: Nov 12, 2005; It's about time.

Isn't it pretty much just because of the one child policy?

# ? Jun 27, 2017 07:55

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Kassad posted:

Isn't it pretty much just because of the one child policy?

The gender imbalance or the pension problem?

# ? Jun 27, 2017 08:41

Kassad: Nov 12, 2005; It's about time.

The pension problem, sorry.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 08:45

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Kassad posted:

The pension problem, sorry.

A combination of factors, migration from rural areas to the city has caused a regional imbalance, prices have naturally inflated more than pensions, and older Chinese people are simply living longer.

Basically, slow population growth + industrialization/modernization has predictably put pressures on pensions.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 09:21

MrNemo: Aug 26, 2010; "I just love beeting off"

A lot of the stuff I read about China's development projects in Africa and South America sound like some combination of exporting their own infrastructure spending to maintain government fueled GDP growth and early period British Imperialism where, instead of recruiting indigenous peoples to produce basic products for export, the British just exported 5 million Scots and had them do the work. The real test comes in 20-30 years when China has improved its ability for force projection and some local government refuses to pay up or orders Chinese people/companies to leave.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 09:36

oohhboy: Jun 8, 2013; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

There have already been riots here and there. It's only going to get worse as China keeps pushing countries into bonded slavery with their false promise of riches while they plunder them while building white elephants everywhere to boost perceived GDP leaving the locals with useless or unmaintainable structures.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 10:55

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

oohhboy posted:

There have already been riots here and there. It's only going to get worse as China keeps pushing countries into bonded slavery with their false promise of riches while they plunder them while building white elephants everywhere to boost perceived GDP leaving the locals with useless or unmaintainable structures.

Granted, let's be honest, there are two sides of the coin here, most of those countries are desperate for investment in the first place because there generally ignored otherwise (including yes the legacy of decolonization/cold war). The one constant is exploitation.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 10:59

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

MrNemo posted:

A lot of the stuff I read about China's development projects in Africa and South America sound like some combination of exporting their own infrastructure spending to maintain government fueled GDP growth and early period British Imperialism where, instead of recruiting indigenous peoples to produce basic products for export, the British just exported 5 million Scots and had them do the work. The real test comes in 20-30 years when China has improved its ability for force projection and some local government refuses to pay up or orders Chinese people/companies to leave.

Then history will repeat itself with them getting into proxy wars with France, the US or whatever local hegemony might arise in the next few decades.

# ? Jun 27, 2017 10:59

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

MiddleOne posted:

The gender imbalance or the pension problem?

Yes.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 01:42

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

MiddleOne posted:

Then history will repeat itself with them getting into proxy wars with France, the US or whatever local hegemony might arise in the next few decades.

This is drastically overestimating China's ability to project power.

France in 2017 still has more ability to project power than China does.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 02:10

CAPS LOCK BROKEN: Feb 1, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

Fojar38 posted:

This is drastically overestimating China's ability to project power.

France in 2017 still has more ability to project power than China does.

Source your quotes fojar

# ? Jun 28, 2017 02:56

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

Peven Stan posted:

Source your quotes fojar

I'm going to guess it's because France has a nuclear aircraft carrier while China still needs to gas up.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:15

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

Peven Stan posted:

Source your quotes fojar

France has 4 carriers, 3 of which are helicopter, China has 1. Moreover, while China has been undergoing more and more blue-water operations, is it recognized as a blue-water navy? I know France obviously it is, but is China there yet?

France totals 10 military bases abroad: Antilles, French Guiana, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Mayotte, & Djibouti, Cote D'Ivoire, Gabon, Senegal, and the UAE. While China also has significant ground presence in Africa, it has only one facility in Djibouti and is looking to expand to Pakistan.

So when we're talking hard power and the ability to project force, it's not a controversial thing to say.

e:

Krispy Kareem posted:

I'm going to guess it's because France has a nuclear aircraft carrier while China still needs to gas up.

probably mostly this lol

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:18

CAPS LOCK BROKEN: Feb 1, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

stone cold posted:

France has 4 carriers, 3 of which are helicopter, China has 1. Moreover, while China has been undergoing more and more blue-water operations, is it recognized as a blue-water navy? I know France obviously it is, but is China there yet?

France totals 10 military bases abroad: Antilles, French Guiana, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Mayotte, & Djibouti, Cote D'Ivoire, Gabon, Senegal, and the UAE. While China also has significant ground presence in Africa, it has only one facility in Djibouti and is looking to expand to Pakistan.

So when we're talking hard power and the ability to project force, it's not a controversial thing to say.

e:

probably mostly this lol

France has a bunch of bases in former colonies to keep on eye on the locals, what a droolworthy measure of power projection

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:26

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

Peven Stan posted:

France has a bunch of bases in former colonies to keep on eye on the locals, what a droolworthy measure of power projection

do you know what hard power is

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:29

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Peven Stan posted:

France has a bunch of bases in former colonies to keep on eye on the locals, what a droolworthy measure of power projection

France has been fighting ground wars in Africa and the Middle East for the past decade or so. China's ability to project power even into its coastal waters is still limited.

Krispy Kareem posted:

I'm going to guess it's because France has a nuclear aircraft carrier while China still needs to gas up.

It's because France has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to project power while China hasn't.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:32

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

Fojar38 posted:

France has been fighting ground wars in Africa and the Middle East for the past decade or so. China's ability to project power even into its coastal waters is still limited.

Is it green- and brown-water essentially?

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:33

CAPS LOCK BROKEN: Feb 1, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

Fojar38 posted:

France has been fighting ground wars in Africa and the Middle East for the past decade or so. China's ability to project power even into its coastal waters is still limited.

It's because France has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to project power while China hasn't.

HIlarious how liberals are basically neocolonialists at heart

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:36

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

Peven Stan posted:

HIlarious how liberals are basically neocolonialists at heart

observing that France has more military bases than China and therefore has a higher capacity to project hard power=full throated endorsement of the French military, any given state's possessions abroad, neocolonialism

if you read the numbers it's the equivalent of doing an imperialism

e:

stone cold posted:

do you know what hard power is

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:40

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

stone cold posted:

Is it green- and brown-water essentially?

China's navy is oriented towards fighting near the Chinese mainland, not for fighting wars across oceans. There has been a lot of hype over the idea of a future "blue water" PLAN but they're still a long way from acquiring the sorts of things that would make adventures as far as Africa possible. They can show the flag right now, but that is very easy to do.

This makes sense, because the sorts of conflicts China might feasibly fight would all take place close to home, and in a conflict with another great power China is very easily boxed in by geography and long-range power projection tools wouldn't be particularly useful strategically.

Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Jun 28, 2017

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:40

fishmech: Jul 16, 2006; by VideoGames; Salad Prong

You're neglecting that France also has the ability to use a bunch of NATO ally bases, beyond just the bases they outright own.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:47

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

fishmech posted:

You're neglecting that France also has the ability to use a bunch of NATO ally bases, beyond just the bases they outright own.

This is true. Bases in southern Europe are very helpful for projecting power into northern Africa.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:48

stone cold: Feb 15, 2014

fishmech posted:

You're neglecting that France also has the ability to use a bunch of NATO ally bases, beyond just the bases they outright own.

fair enough

# ? Jun 28, 2017 03:49

oohhboy: Jun 8, 2013; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

fishmech posted:

You're neglecting that France also has the ability to use a bunch of NATO ally bases, beyond just the bases they outright own.

China will never understand this. They don't have allies, they see only potential subjects.

Their diplomacy reflects this as they never go into an agreement in good faith whether if it is with another state or with themselves. They claim superiority when there is none, claim history that is not theirs, outright lie, dishonour treatise and break laws in foreign countries in state sponsored kidnappings.

Having allies makes you far stronger than you are individually. Even though Taiwan doesn't have "Official" ties they have allies makes them stronger than China without having to directly match military force which is an impossible proposition.

# ? Jun 28, 2017 04:03