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Tei posted:The new era of automatization destroy more jobs that it create. And the new jobs created required high specialization. yeah they're better jobs. in some organisations it's part of the culture to automate as much as possible, including your own job. things which are trivially automatible are not usually much fun to do every day!
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Jun 27, 2017 22:57
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Dead Reckoning posted:Also, how would people not be spending their UBI on housing and food?
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Jun 27, 2017 23:01
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idk maybe this time is different and technology actually will permanently increase unemployment but I'm not seeing it yet. distributive problems are fixable with tax/socialism. Spiralling rent seeking by almost the entire healthcare industry seems like a much more relaxing threat to American workers over the next 10-50 years
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Jun 27, 2017 23:02
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Guavanaut posted:In the first modern wave of automation, the industrial revolution, the only way they were able to force sufficient people into the factories of England was by stealing their common land, a theft that was repeated on many continents. Maybe the only way to undo that is to take it back. It's hard to work out who's would be what. Institute a lvt on it all instead
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Jun 27, 2017 23:03
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With common land all of it's everyone's, with a series of bylaws to stop someone coming in and being King rear end in a top hat. For built up areas an LVT administered by the municipality would probably be the modern equivalent.
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Jun 27, 2017 23:07
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pointsofdata posted:idk maybe this time is different and technology actually will permanently increase unemployment but I'm not seeing it yet. distributive problems are fixable with tax/socialism. Spiralling rent seeking by almost the entire healthcare industry seems like a much more relaxing threat to American workers over the next 10-50 years For what it's worth, the argument isn't that technology is increasing unemployment yet outside of specific industries. The argument is that automation is eating away at middle income jobs (and has been for a couple of decades) and replacing them with a combination of higher and lower paying work. If you want to see a job market that's growing massively just take a look at home health care aides. This isn't something that's easy to automate, but it's also a low end job that pays ever so slightly above retail work. There's a lot of work that's available and that will continue to be available, but it's work that we've collectively chosen not to value.
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Jun 27, 2017 23:44
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Paradoxish posted:For what it's worth, the argument isn't that technology is increasing unemployment yet outside of specific industries. The argument is that automation is eating away at middle income jobs (and has been for a couple of decades) and replacing them with a combination of higher and lower paying work. If you want to see a job market that's growing massively just take a look at home health care aides. This isn't something that's easy to automate, but it's also a low end job that pays ever so slightly above retail work. There's a lot of work that's available and that will continue to be available, but it's work that we've collectively chosen not to value. Right,but even this is not really true right now globally, only for a very specific demographic in wealthy countries. There's that famous elephant graph. Maybe it will continue idk, but it seems far from inevitable and could just be due to temporary (positive!) patterns in global trade and development rather than being the inevitable end state of tech
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Jun 28, 2017 07:10
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Paradoxish posted:For what it's worth, the argument isn't that technology is increasing unemployment yet outside of specific industries. The argument is that automation is eating away at middle income jobs (and has been for a couple of decades) and replacing them with a combination of higher and lower paying work. If you want to see a job market that's growing massively just take a look at home health care aides. This isn't something that's easy to automate, but it's also a low end job that pays ever so slightly above retail work. There's a lot of work that's available and that will continue to be available, but it's work that we've collectively chosen not to value. I really get sick and tired of this moralizing. You'll have to excuse people if they aren't particularly interested in the time consuming and difficult work that elder care entails. Not everyone is interested in bathing and cleaning up the bodily fluids of complete strangers and they shouldn't be guilted into such work as an meaningful alternative to more systematic solutions to our economic issues.
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Jun 28, 2017 13:49
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Solkanar512 posted:I really get sick and tired of this moralizing. what My point is that something like home healthcare work is lovely as hell and yet we pay the people who do it peanuts. The only "moralizing" in my post is that maybe we should pay people decent wages for work that's unpleasant yet socially necessary rather than expecting people to do it out of the goodness of their hearts.
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Jun 28, 2017 15:31
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Paradoxish posted:My point is that something like home healthcare work is lovely as hell and yet we pay the people who do it peanuts. The only "moralizing" in my post is that maybe we should pay people decent wages for work that's unpleasant yet socially necessary rather than expecting people to do it out of the goodness of their hearts. Seems a problem that unions can fix. I think if this job sucks, but is poorly paid, is because is easy for anyone to do it without extensive training, or other type of energy barrier. So you compete with everyone, and that dump salaries. Unions can create a artificial barrier, to give people inside the barrier some sort of bargaining power to get good salaries. In a capitalist system: - A lot of bargaining power = good salary - Not bargaining power = bad salary Is not how hard you work, people farming tomatoes work hard, is what you can leverage. (How much people need you / How much you need the job) = your salary Pushing it too far is a thing that exist. Air traffic controllers have a lot of leverage. But that can test the patience of a lot of people with a lot of effective power that can choose to replace workers with unpaid soldiers. Soldiers can't ask for a raise and do what they are asked for. Tei fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Jun 28, 2017 |
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Jun 28, 2017 16:13
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Unions that don't strike have no power
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Jun 28, 2017 16:20
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Tei posted:Seems a problem that unions can fix. "A few arbitrarily selected people get good jobs and everyone else gets gently caress-all" is exactly the problem automation is creating. Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of organized labor, but as the increasing population continues to outstrip the shrinking number of jobs, that's exactly the end game you're describing. Picking an elect who get to have what we consider a first world standard of living and not giving two shits what happens to the rest of the population is certainly A Solution, but the people not in the elect won't like it and you'll probably have to impose it on them by force when they don't agree to starve quietly in the streets.
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Jun 28, 2017 16:31
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Dead Reckoning posted:"A few arbitrarily selected people get good jobs and everyone else gets gently caress-all" is exactly the problem automation is creating. Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of organized labor, but as the increasing population continues to outstrip the shrinking number of jobs, that's exactly the end game you're describing. A union is a tool, and like all tools exist to solve one problem and only one. Unions give bargaining power to workers, so they can get a just salary for their hard work. Unions don't do gently caress all to help fix the end of capitalism caused by automatization.
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Jun 28, 2017 16:40
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Dead Reckoning posted:as the increasing population continues to outstrip the shrinking number of jobs, that's exactly the end game you're describing. Of course, much like with pollution controls, it only works if everyone is willing to play along, but it's a possible solution. Guavanaut fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Jun 28, 2017 |
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Jun 28, 2017 16:56
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Tei posted:A union is a tool, and like all tools exist to solve one problem and only one. Unions give bargaining power to workers, so they can get a just salary for their hard work.
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Jun 28, 2017 17:12
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Zume automated pizza delivery
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Jun 28, 2017 17:27
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Guavanaut posted:Wouldn't a solution here be policies to promote a slight negative rate of population growth? Not necessarily an authoritarian one like how China did it and definitely not like how the British did in Ireland, more like how Iran did it when they massively increased women's health and education and had religious leaders say that family planning is cool and warning about the population bomb in the 70s. (This was prior to Khamenei's shitfit about contraceptives and needing more sons for the army.) All first world countries are already there, much of the rest are catching up and IIRC the last prediction was a decline in total humans starting around 2050.
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Jun 28, 2017 17:39
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So, those of you who are having kids: what's your plan for them, in our automated future? It sure seems like everyone is going to be jobless or working gigs except for the absolute "best" amongst us. Will your child be more grist for the mill?
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Jun 28, 2017 17:49
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Cicero posted:I mean sometimes unions do stand in the way of automation to preserve jobs, and while it's somewhat understandable, it's not a great thing. True that. But I think is a fragile balance, and would only slow down a path that has only one direction. I like capitalism, I hope we can patch it and continue with it. And I would hate to live a hellish apocalypse where 60% is unemployeed and people murder people for food. Not my favorite thing.
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Jun 28, 2017 17:59
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Tei posted:True that. But I think is a fragile balance, and would only slow down a path that has only one direction. yes, these are the only two options. capitalism of murderscape.
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Jun 28, 2017 18:19
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cis autodrag posted:yes, these are the only two options. capitalism of murderscape. The other option is?
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Jun 28, 2017 18:24
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cis autodrag posted:yes, these are the only two options. capitalism of murderscape. Yeah, totally false choice, I'm pretty sure American ingenuity can combine them.
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Jun 28, 2017 18:41
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Tei posted:The other option is?
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Jun 28, 2017 18:43
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If you want to name a future common job name a current ultra elite job that only a few super special people can do. That has usually been a preview of what jobs end up being common. Stuff people want but only the elites can provide while naming their exorbitant price and telling everyone only they can do it because they were chosen by god. Your kid will grow up to be a machine aided neurosurgeon and everyone will have reliable good, cheap access to surgery while the people today that would have been neurosurgeons will declare that was just peasants work anyone could do and the true elites do ultra quantum nano surgery or whatever,
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Jun 28, 2017 18:56
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call to action posted:So, those of you who are having kids: what's your plan for them, in our automated future? It sure seems like everyone is going to be jobless or working gigs except for the absolute "best" amongst us. Will your child be more grist for the mill? I don't believe the future looks bad, I think automation is only a good thing and will inevitably lead to a post scarcity economy. Ideally the concept of work will change over time and in the future the idea of not working won't be stigmatized. I believe it's already happening, what people value is changing. Value is a human concept so really anything can be seen as valuable, it just happens that at the moment value seems to be tied pretty heavily to wealth. In the future I imagine novelty and complexity will become the standards we use to determine value. Owlofcreamcheese posted:If you want to name a future common job name a current ultra elite job that only a few super special people can do. Computer programming is the next blue collar job, in some countries it practically already is.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:09
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ElCondemn posted:Computer programming is the next blue collar job, in some countries it practically already is. No it's not. Computer programming is still just in its infancy, so you still have a lot of people doing "manual labor" of sorts. That job market will shrink as things get simpler and more intuitive. Manually writing code is going to become obsolete. What you'll have instead are a couple proofreaders and people who diagnose issues, but the bulk of the work will be done by computers, and the job market will reflect that in time.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:19
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Software developing is about talking with people. Theres a writing software part, but thats the easy part. Tei fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jun 28, 2017 |
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Jun 28, 2017 19:23
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Cicero posted:I mean sometimes unions do stand in the way of automation to preserve jobs, and while it's somewhat understandable, it's not a great thing. This normally back fires too. The big example for me is west coast port clerking and gates compared to clerking and gates in the south at marine terminals. (The south had the additional advantage of having state run terminals)
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Jun 28, 2017 19:47
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Tei posted:Software developing is about talking with people. Yeah. The core of software development is translating human requirements into something that a computer can understand. Tools are making it easier to do the rote, "manual labor" side of things, but that's it. I know people like to stick it to techbros and all, but the truth is that software development is pretty much the end game of automation. If that happens then it means we're at a point where we can simply tell a computer what we want and it will do it, which means that any job without a physical component to it is over. That's not going to happen for a long time, if ever. edit- In a way, software development is undergoing the same transition as a lot of other industries where the middle is being hollowed out and replaced by lower end, cheap developers at one end and highly educated, highly skilled developers at the other. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Jun 28, 2017 |
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Jun 28, 2017 19:49
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ElCondemn posted:Computer programming is the next blue collar job, in some countries it practically already is. Yeah, I think it applies to everything, if you want to know what the next middle class jobs are you look at what the current "this job is one that requires someone so special only 5 people on earth can do it" type jobs.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:51
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Volkerball posted:No it's not. Computer programming is still just in its infancy, so you still have a lot of people doing "manual labor" of sorts. That job market will shrink as things get simpler and more intuitive. Manually writing code is going to become obsolete. What you'll have instead are a couple proofreaders and people who diagnose issues, but the bulk of the work will be done by computers, and the job market will reflect that in time. Like yeah it's gonna happen, but probably not until around the same time that AI becomes capable of doing most white-collar jobs.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:52
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:If you want to name a future common job name a current ultra elite job that only a few super special people can do. That has usually been a preview of what jobs end up being common. Stuff people want but only the elites can provide while naming their exorbitant price and telling everyone only they can do it because they were chosen by god. Your choice of example for "ultra elite job that only a few super special people can do" is an odd one, since the neurosurgeon shortage is not a matter of insufficient talented people. The prime driver of the neurosurgeon shortage is a thin pipeline - lack of funding and the medical profession's tight controls over entry mean that there simply aren't enough residencies available. It's no surprise there's not enough neurosurgeons when only two hundred people can begin a neurosurgery residency each year. Tei posted:Software developing is about talking with people. Maybe, but most of the time and manpower is in writing software. If all you had to do was punch customer requirements into a magic coding machine and let it do the rest, then you could replace five developers working for three weeks with a single sales engineer putting in a day or two worth of work.
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Jun 28, 2017 20:38
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Paradoxish posted:edit- In a way, software development is undergoing the same transition as a lot of other industries where the middle is being hollowed out and replaced by lower end, cheap developers at one end and highly educated, highly skilled developers at the other. That's basically all I'm saying about it turning into blue collar work, most programming work is done today is by low skill workers while the architecting and core libraries and SDKs are done by the more skilled workers. Certainly it can and will be automated in the future though, maybe with smaller time scales than say fabrication or carpentry since in the tech field advancements move a lot more quickly.
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Jun 28, 2017 20:42
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ElCondemn posted:That's basically all I'm saying about it turning into blue collar work, most programming work is done today is by low skill workers while the architecting and core libraries and SDKs are done by the more skilled workers. Certainly it can and will be automated in the future though, maybe with smaller time scales than say fabrication or carpentry since in the tech field advancements move a lot more quickly. But that's the same as saying "most accounting is done by H&R Block type places" to argue that accounting is becoming blue collar work. In any discipline there's always going to be unskilled labor and highly skilled professionals. If anything I'd argue that the problem is our system of commerce encourages everyone to try to become highly skilled because unskilled jobs are undervalued despite being critically necessary.
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Jun 28, 2017 21:11
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Main Paineframe posted:Your choice of example for "ultra elite job that only a few super special people can do" is an odd one, since the neurosurgeon shortage is not a matter of insufficient talented people. The prime driver of the neurosurgeon shortage is a thin pipeline - lack of funding and the medical profession's tight controls over entry mean that there simply aren't enough residencies available. It's no surprise there's not enough neurosurgeons when only two hundred people can begin a neurosurgery residency each year. That is the point. A way to see what jobs are going to exist in the future in more distributed ways is to look at what jobs now exist with a high demand but a low supply that is restricted in some dramatic way.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:09
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Main Paineframe posted:Maybe, but most of the time and manpower is in writing software. If all you had to do was punch customer requirements into a magic coding machine and let it do the rest, then you could replace five developers working for three weeks with a single sales engineer putting in a day or two worth of work. This is missing the point a bit, I think. "Writing software" is how those requirements get translated into something that a computer can understand, but the core skills and concepts being used don't have anything to do with the code that's being written. Better tools make it easier to write the code, but they don't solve the problem of taking human problems and making them computer understandable anymore than word processors automate the process of writing a novel. We're still very much at the better tools phase of automation for software. When you can punch customer requirements into a magic coding machine then we're at literal Star Trek-level technology and that changes everything on an absurdly profound level. We're absolutely nowhere near being able to say "Computer, make me an Excel" and accidentally ending up with a sentient Sherlock Holmes villain doing our books for us.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:18
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Paradoxish posted:what poo poo you're right, sorry for completely misunderstanding that post. I've just seen that sort of "gently caress you, you should be wiping the asses of elderly strangers for minimum wage, that's a job and thus you have no reason to complain about your lot in life" commentary way too often.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:21
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Paradoxish posted:This is missing the point a bit, I think. "Writing software" is how those requirements get translated into something that a computer can understand, but the core skills and concepts being used don't have anything to do with the code that's being written. Better tools make it easier to write the code, but they don't solve the problem of taking human problems and making them computer understandable anymore than word processors automate the process of writing a novel. We're still very much at the better tools phase of automation for software. It's not really star trek level. What it will end up involving is some sort of drafting process, where a model is created, and then that digital model is exported to a program that creates the code. And as the database of softwares becomes more fleshed out, and the modeling becomes easier, it will take significantly less people to create something than it takes today. We're already seeing this in machining, and the result is code that would take weeks for a skilled manual programmer to write, being done in a matter of hours.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:29
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Volkerball posted:It's not really star trek level. What it will end up involving is some sort of drafting process, where a model is created, and then that digital model is exported to a program that creates the code. And as the database of softwares becomes more fleshed out, and the modeling becomes easier, it will take significantly less people to create something than it takes today. We're already seeing this in machining, and the result is code that would take weeks for a skilled manual programmer to write, being done in a matter of hours. There is far more automation in writing software now than there was fifteen years ago, yet web developers (for example) need to have a significantly wider skill set than they did in the late 90s. The reason I say we're still in the tooling phase of automation is because better tools are simply enabling us to solve more complex problems, which in turn require more sophisticated skills. There will absolutely be a point where that isn't true anymore, but I think that future looks less like "no more programmers" and more like "most people do something that we used to call programming as one smaller part of their job."
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Jun 28, 2017 22:41
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Paradoxish posted:There is far more automation in writing software now than there was fifteen years ago, yet web developers (for example) need to have a significantly wider skill set than they did in the late 90s. The reason I say we're still in the tooling phase of automation is because better tools are simply enabling us to solve more complex problems, which in turn require more sophisticated skills. There will absolutely be a point where that isn't true anymore, but I think that future looks less like "no more programmers" and more like "most people do something that we used to call programming as one smaller part of their job." Most employed people, sure.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:45
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