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Spoeank posted:What the gently caress silly burrito did you hack me and steal my piece I created a GUI interface using visual basic to track your IP address. Next time use the two person keyboard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8qgehH3kEQ
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Jul 1, 2017 04:01
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Spoeank posted:Ya boy just got offered $150 to put 500 words on cbs digital's scout.com about the fantasy football prospects of the jacksonville jaguars nerd grats hmu when the podcast deal comes through
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Jul 1, 2017 05:56
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Dude sorry I keep forcing edits with my terrible strategy of writing a post, thinking about it more and then adding incredibly relevant info. Other people are telling you I'm totally wrong but I'll go ahead and explain my thinking. Basically, for dynasty, you definitely want to target young promising players, right? Sure. If you can draft someone with enormous talent who is going to dominate in his position for the next decade, that's awesome. But, I think your #1 pick also has to be guaranteed. You are never going to get another #1 pick again in dynasty; future rounds, most of the talent will be kept. You'll get shots at rookies of course, and maybe the occasional player whose opportunity radically changes due to an offseason trade. Maybe a guy like Josh Brown somehow gets reinstated and cleans up and is there for the first round. But, assume that poo poo isn't going to happen; I feel your first pick off the board has to be someone who will anchor your dynasty team. Even, and this is where I differ with other guys, if the guy you pick isn't super young. That's why I'd far rather have a veteran player on an excellent team whose opportunity and talent are unquestioned. And I don't think Amari Cooper's opportunity is guaranteed. Specifically, he's had two running 1000+ yard seasons, and will very likely get more; but he's getting only 5 or 6 TDs per season, and I don't believe that is slated to change. My comment about Crabtree wasn't to suggest Crabs is a better player (he isn't) or is going to steal more normal targets (he isn't); but the Raiders have shown they rely on Crabtree for red zone TD play. His last two seasons were 900 and 1000 yards, respectively... and 9 and 8 TDs, respectively. I don't see enough changes in Raiders lineup to expect that to change. Cooper is going to have a long and good career barring injury, but I put him as a solid second round pick - even in Dynasty - because he hasn't got the high TD production opportunity. I want him on my team and if I don't see a solid veteran high-opportunity player available, I take him, yeah. But. Jordy Nelson's last three played seasons (2013, 2014, 2016) were 1300, 1500, and 1250 yard seasons, with 8, 13, and 14 TDs. Yes, he's 32, so probably not much more than 5 or 6 seasons left, and expecting him to decline after another two or three years is reasonable. But right now, he's an absolute winning anchor with guaranteed opportunity and an unquestionable talent at QB. After last year I don't believe there are big injury concerns with him. If I want to win my league any time in the next two or three years, I love Nelson. So, despite it being dynasty... yeah, I take Nelson over Cooper for my first round pick. Especially given that you chose to move back in the first round in order to get more early-round picks: I'd be planning to use those extra picks to grab more of the rookies and young talents that will still be on the board in the third and fifth rounds, and focus my first and second round picks on absolute safe bets. As for Gurley: I just don't trust him or his opportunity. It remains to be seen whether the Rams will be not a garbage fire again, and Gurley is unproven. His play got significantly worse last year compared to his rookie year; maybe he's due to turn that around, but... I'd rather take a player who has turned things around, and is unquestionably on an upswing with tremendous opportunity. Like Jay Ajayi. I know a bunch of other people don't agree, and if you go with their advice I'm not mad or anything, but I think you have to be really careful about e.g. Fantasypro's ratings when you've taken a particular strategy into the draft, and add in that it's dynasty. By the way, I don't think you've mentioned what your keeper rules will be, but they matter a lot. Will it be much more expensive in some respect to keep a 1st round pick vs. later round picks? Do you have player salaries that escalate or anything like that? Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Jul 1, 2017 |
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Jul 1, 2017 20:09
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Yeah, I feel the same as you, Leperflesh, obviously no hard feelings or anything, and everyone should play the game how they think is best. And also the caveat that I'm talking like it's pure dynasty, when it isn't. I just think picking someone like Jordy locks you 100% into a draft strategy the rest of the way, or you've wasted your pick. If someone like Mike Williams is sitting there at pick 100 or 120 or whatever, do you take him or like, I dunno, Mike Wallace? Picking Jordy means you're going all in to win this year and next, and that's it. No sitting on rookies as they develop. You take dudes like Demarco Murray, Crabtree, Sanders, Brady, you win it this year, then your team falls apart. Someone like Cooper (or Beckham or Evans or Hopkins or a handful of other guys) are fantastic in that they give you production now, today, right now, while also being so young that they work for any kind of team. He finished as like WR#14 or 15, depending on PPR and stuff, yeah? Take Cooper at 14 and then find guys like John Ross or Doctson or Moncrief or whoever are sitting there on the board, way past their ADPs? Take em, you can afford to wait a year or two for them to develop. Or you find all those old dudes that have a tiny bit of gas in the tank just keep falling? Cool, draft them and win it all with at least high end WR2 production from Cooper, while also having a solid stud to build around when all your old dudes die in 2018 or 2019. I absolutely do think lots of people fetishize youth too much, knocking guys like Hilton or Jeffery for being, gasp, older than 25. But Cooper, in particular, has not hit his ceiling. Would you really be that surprised if he busts out for 100-1400-9 or something? He can't put up a breakout year like ARob, Hopkins, or Evans have recently? It's exactly when you can keep them forever that you should lock up guys that are almost top tier already but still have tons of room to grow.
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Jul 1, 2017 20:36
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RVProfootballer posted:Would you really be that surprised if he busts out for 100-1400-9 or something? He can't put up a breakout year like ARob, Hopkins, or Evans have recently? It's exactly when you can keep them forever that you should lock up guys that are almost top tier already but still have tons of room to grow. Would I be surprised? No, not really, I think he definitely has a chance to do that. But I think his chance is more like 50/50, and more importantly, I think there's a solid chance he remains at his current level of TD production and yardage for a long time. I look at a guy like Landry; his third year was basically identical to his second, 1150 yards and 4 TDs, and I don't think the Raiders are gonna be so stupid as to drag their feet re-signing him if he has a third year like Landry's. I think that's the expectation and I'd rate Cooper and Landry as roughly equivalent draft picks in Dynasty. Maybe Coop gets a slight edge just because the Raiders are more likely playoff contenders than the Dolphins and that will help late in the season. I love Amari Cooper in dynasty, I just don't love him as your only first round pick when you're waiting another 14 spots for your second pick.
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Jul 1, 2017 20:54
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Well, might just need to agree to disagree. I think there's very little chance Cooper has peaked, or that he and Landry are similar in more than a very superficial way (season end counting stats). I couldn't accept quickly enough if you offered me Cooper for Landry.
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Jul 1, 2017 21:23
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why is everybody so excited about the Raiders' #2 receiver  For the record I don't think this is the year we Tinkerbell Clap Amari into being a WR1 unless Crabtree gets hurt. I don't think he's a first round dyno startup WR, but a second round ADP is more than fair for him. Crabtree is going to be 30 when the season starts, and there will be a changing of the guard either this year or next year in terms of 1a to 1b, but you don't want that kind of situation with your first pick in a dyno startup
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Jul 1, 2017 21:39
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Spoeank posted:why is everybody so excited about the Raiders' #2 receiver This exactly. Throw in that the Raiders' TE corps has been pretty bad but now Jared Cook ahahah I can't even finish this sentence but eventually the team might find a third guy to throw the ball to, is my point here e. Just noticed Seth Roberts has two running 5TD seasons as well. I wonder what Cordarelle Patterson will do?
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Jul 1, 2017 21:43
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clive tribe 201X
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Jul 1, 2017 21:45
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I think you guys are undervaluing Cooper a lot. He's a third year receiver who absolutely hasn't hit his ceiling. You are talking about a dynasty piece that you can have for the next ten years whose floor appears to be low end WR1/ high end WR2. Moreover, you are dismissing the fact that because of his age and the fact that Nelson is consistently undervalued in normal drafts, there's a very good chance he'll be available in the second. There are so many things going for Cooper in that offense, his age and even if he's not quite as good as Nelson is right now, the drop off is not so drastic that you are really hurting your short term value. It's important to maximize your value per round. Drafting a player over 30 in the first is irresponsible because there are enough younger players who are top tier talents that you are sacrificing your future team needlessly. It's not an either / or situation where you are sacrificing winning now by taking Cooper. You can easily win this year with him AND be competitive long term. The same is not true with Nelson. Basically, Leperflesh is wrong!  I still respect your opinions on everything else
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Jul 1, 2017 22:08
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In a 16 team start up going right now, Jordy went 26. He went 71 in a ridiculous 2 QB start up that saw like 35 QBs go before that (so adjust accordingly, and maybe discount this one entirely, hah). In another 2 QB that was more reasonable, he went 26, after 5 QBs. Can't imagine taking him over AJ Green either. So yeah, little bit that I think people are undervaluing Cooper and overvaluing ol Jordy. I love Jordy for competitors, bought him for a 2018 1st round rookie pick in a league I just won, for example. He's just not close to a mid 1st start up pick for me.
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Jul 1, 2017 22:26
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FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL FISH BOWL https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3825569
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Jul 1, 2017 22:45
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Cooper over Jordy in dynasty and its not close imo. Not just because of age, but liquidity. Jordys trade value is going to continue to decline each year as he continues to age into his 30s, and as the dynasty community continues to place a premium on youth, you're less likely to find potential trade partners as he continues to age into his 30s. One bad season and his value will plummet (see Brandon Marshall), while guys like Donte Moncrief who havent proven anything still carry high trade value, and give you a long runway to get out before the bottom falls out and you're stuck holding the bag. If you think Jordy is going to continue to put up WR1 seasons for the next 2-3 years, you're betting on an outlier, and giving yourself fewer outs by investing in a declining commodity. I'm of the opinion that you should invest in young players with proven production in the early rounds with room to maintain/grow their value, and spend mid-late round capital on undervalued veterans while the rest of the league takes shots on low odds rookies/fliers.
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Jul 2, 2017 06:05
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Cervixalot posted:
This sums it up perfectly. Also note, this is coming from a guy who thinks Jordy is 1st round value in standard leagues. I just don't draft him there because for some odd reason, most people don't have him rated that high.
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Jul 2, 2017 16:23
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Take from this what you will but I just dug up this nugget: Amari Cooper was the only player last season who had 5+ targets within the ten without a catch (he had seven targets). Only Amari, Pierre Garcon and Chris Hogan had 5+ within the ten targets without a touchdown (73 players had 5+ within the ten targets). Positive regression or Amari has trouble when the field shortens, your call Edit: lol he left two touchdowns on the table against SD because he can't get his second foot down Spoeank fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Jul 2, 2017 |
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Jul 2, 2017 18:27
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I just watched all his targets in the red zone, Cooper has a red zone problem. He keeps getting bodied up in the end zone and gets manhandled or pushed out of bounds My Source:  My Notes: New Orleans - 1st & goal from the 2 - sideline, couldn't get toes down Atlanta - 2nd & goal - bad pass, bracketed coverage San Diego - 3rd & goal - sideline, couldn't get toes down San Diego - 1st & goal - sideline, couldn't get toes down San Diego - 1st & goal - DPI KC - catch for 11 yards, 1st down, couldn't shake open field tackle Jax - 2nd & goal - uncatchable pass, bodied up by Cyprien TB - 1st & goal - extremely good catch, bodied by Hargreaves Den - 2 DPI I didn't bother watching Den - 2nd & 10 - supposed to be catch & run, went nowhere HOU - 1st & 10 - release valve for Carr, double covered, no chance to score CAR - 1st & 10 - Carr double pumped, Cooper tackled on catch CAR - 3rd & goal - couldnt shake end zone coverage KC2 - DPI I didn't bother watching SD2 - 2nd & 8 - dropped an easy one, this was just bad Indy - 1st & goal - bodied up at the one
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Jul 2, 2017 19:02
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Spoeank posted:I just watched all his targets in the red zone, Cooper has a red zone problem. He keeps getting bodied up in the end zone and gets manhandled or pushed out of bounds So what's the conclusion, Mr. CBS Fancypants? Overrated or underrated?
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Jul 2, 2017 20:42
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Spoeank posted:I just watched all his targets in the red zone, Cooper has a red zone problem. He keeps getting bodied up in the end zone and gets manhandled or pushed out of bounds This list of plays seems pretty unremarkable. Edit: In the sense that there's one bad drop, a few times of not getting his toes down that virtually every receiver should have (it's the end zone, of course they're not going to get their toes down every time, that's the defensive game plan), and then some decent plays that didn't go for touchdowns. sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jul 2, 2017 |
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Jul 2, 2017 21:40
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Exactly. This is what I'm taking huge issue with:Cervixalot posted:I'm of the opinion that you should invest in young players with proven production in the early rounds Amari Cooper has a couple 1000 yard seasons with 4-5 TDs. That's not at all remarkable to me and I've seen nothing - having watched almost all the Raiders games the last two years - nothing to suggest Cooper is on the verge of a breakout season. If you don't like Nelson, fine, but why would you take him over any of the several other young WRs with 1000 yard season potential on teams that hand a lot of TDs out to other targets? I think Amari Cooper is a solid second round WR pick in any format. He's not going to be the next superstar WR.
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Jul 2, 2017 21:56
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I think it's a mix of bad luck, bad playcalling and bad red zone play on Cooper's part. Bad luck in the toe taps, bad playcalling in that he was running curls and outs and other plays that weren't designed to score and bad red zone play in that he did basically nothing to get free and get separation. There were only two plays that concerned me, which were the ugly drop and the one time he had a chance to score. It was him and one defender, and he hesitated and basically ran into the tackle. I don't think he's going to have a huge positive regression but he should have a couple more red zone TDs this year. I still don't think he's a solid wr1 yet due to Crabtree hoovering targets but might end up there through attrition. So do what you want wrt to cooper. We are talking hairline rank differences here. Though to whoever lumped him in with odb I give you a hearty 
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Jul 2, 2017 22:31
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Leperflesh posted:Exactly. This is what I'm taking huge issue with: If you don't think two 1000 yard seasons before the age of 23 is impressive, then I don't know what to tell you. Here's a list of comparable players who put up similar receiving numbers to Amari Cooper in their first two NFL seasons, using Rotoviz's Screener App: 
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Jul 2, 2017 22:36
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Leperflesh posted:Exactly. This is what I'm taking huge issue with: This is fair, but then pick TY Hilton or Allen Robinson or whoever is in their mid twenties that you like better. I just happen to have Cooper higher than those two. Young mid twenties receivers are crucial to starting up a dynasty league if you care about your long term equity of assets. You won't find a bigger Jordy fan than me. He ends up on half my rosters every year. But for a dynasty/keeper start up, first round is too early. The argument is about long term value and by picking Jordy here, you are giving up a ton. If he's available in the second, I draft him in a heartbeat.
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Jul 2, 2017 22:43
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I mean, I also think youth is overrated in dynasty, but that's also an unpopular opinion so sure: go with Hilton I guess. I don't know as much about him and a-rob as I do about Cooper. Cervixalot posted:If you don't think two 1000 yard seasons before the age of 23 is impressive, then I don't know what to tell you. Sure it's impressive! Any receiver that is in the conversation of the first two rounds of the draft when they've only got two NFL seasons under their belt is impressive as hell. I just think there's a pretty good chance we are seeing Cooper's ceiling, at least while he's a Raider.
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Jul 2, 2017 22:54
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Whole argument against him just seems weird. He's 23. He saw more red zone targets in 2016 (17) than either Hilton or Doug Baldwin (both 16), and just a couple fewer than Evans (19) or Michael Thomas (18) or Antonio Brown (18). His catch rate on them was markedly worse than most of those guys, but from what spoeank showed, didn't seem too concerning. He had drop issues in his rookie year that he cleaned up a ton in 2016. Just seems like a weird narrative that his upside is capped due to his red zone usage or that he has already peaked. His peers historically had not peaked after this kind of production the first two years, and no one would say Baldwin or Evans couldn't be true WR1s due to too few red zone targets. Edit: Hmm, numbers might be off, I got them here: http://nflsavant.com/targets.php Or maybe that includes postseason? sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Jul 2, 2017 |
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Jul 2, 2017 23:44
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RVProfootballer posted:Whole argument against him just seems weird. He's 23. He saw more red zone targets in 2016 (17) than either Hilton or Doug Baldwin (both 16), and just a couple fewer than Evans (19) or Michael Thomas (18) or Antonio Brown (18). His catch rate on them was markedly worse than most of those guys, but from what spoeank showed, didn't seem too concerning. He had drop issues in his rookie year that he cleaned up a ton in 2016. Just seems like a weird narrative that his upside is capped due to his red zone usage or that he has already peaked. His peers historically had not peaked after this kind of production the first two years, and no one would say Baldwin or Evans couldn't be true WR1s due to too few red zone targets. I don't think it includes postseason. But, look who is at #3.
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Jul 3, 2017 02:59
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Leperflesh posted:I don't think it includes postseason. But, look who is at #3. Yeah, I'm not trying to minimize Crabtree or how great a value he is. Hell, looks who's #1 by a mile 
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Jul 3, 2017 03:08
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Leperflesh posted:I mean, I also think youth is overrated in dynasty, but that's also an unpopular opinion so sure: go with Hilton I guess. I don't know as much about him and a-rob as I do about Cooper. I actually agree with this. However, in the first couple rounds, you don't have to sacrifice much to have both. In dynasty, it's about both short term AND long term value. I think Jordy is as good as any receiver in football, but I don't know for how much longer. Hell, at 32, this might be the year where all of us who thought we were getting a steal in the 2nd round end up realizing we bought a year too late. I would make a stock market diversified portfolio analogy here, but I just realized my stock portfolio is a combination of Powerball and scratch off lottery tickets. Perhaps I should not be giving any type of advice. 
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Jul 3, 2017 08:29
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So, even though my WRs are Julio, Baldwin, & Alshon, I'm starting to think RB-RB might have been optimum. I didn't feel comfortable with guys like Crowell in the 3rd, I think that's too high. I could have possibly landed Devonta Freeman or LeSean McCoy and I was one pick away from DeMarco Murray. So let's say McCoy & Murray. Then I'd have Alshon and then there's plenty of high quality WRs left. RBs? Wasteland already after 2 rounds.
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Jul 3, 2017 20:22
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People are way overreacting to an outlier rb season last year. I dunno how many leagues I'll do this year but I'll be going zero rb in all of them.
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Jul 3, 2017 20:40
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89 posted:So, even though my WRs are Julio, Baldwin, & Alshon, I'm starting to think RB-RB might have been optimum. I didn't feel comfortable with guys like Crowell in the 3rd, I think that's too high. I could have possibly landed Devonta Freeman or LeSean McCoy and I was one pick away from DeMarco Murray. So let's say McCoy & Murray. Then I'd have Alshon and then there's plenty of high quality WRs left. Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. There are tons of deep rookies and un-sexy picks this year to round out a solid receiver core. Gore, Mixon, Crowell (but not in the 3rd, agreed), Perkins, Ingram, Powell, Gillislee are all guys I'd be proud to have as my RB1 if I didn't pick an RB in the first 3 rounds. Like Papes said, I'm finding my best mocks are where I don't end up drafting an RB until round 4 (although I still follow my strict "best player available" rule for the first three rounds)
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Jul 3, 2017 21:16
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Drunk Nerds posted:Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. There are tons of deep rookies and un-sexy picks this year to round out a solid receiver core. Gore, Mixon, Crowell (but not in the 3rd, agreed), Perkins, Ingram, Powell, Gillislee are all guys I'd be proud to have as my RB1 if I didn't pick an RB in the first 3 rounds. I'm nixin' Mixon, but otherwise that's a solid list of RB prospects.
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Jul 3, 2017 21:20
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Papes posted:People are way overreacting to an outlier rb season last year. I dunno how many leagues I'll do this year but I'll be going zero rb in all of them. Are you going zero RB if you pick in the top three?
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Jul 3, 2017 21:57
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check out my bold new strategy draft good players at good value check mate zeroRBailures
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Jul 3, 2017 22:00
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Spoeank posted:check out my bold new strategy My strategy is to draft good fantasy players. Which is way more optimal than just good players. 
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Jul 3, 2017 22:04
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Sataere posted:My strategy is to draft good fantasy players. Which is way more optimal than just good players.  gimma all dem Kenny Britts and Bilal Powells.Why yes I'll just go ahead and help myself to some Emmanuel Sanders thanks for asking.
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Jul 3, 2017 22:23
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Gonna ride Eddie Lacy all the way to the championship  of the local Chinese food eating contest
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Jul 3, 2017 22:48
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China food you mean
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Jul 3, 2017 23:11
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Sataere posted:Are you going zero RB if you pick in the top three? Why would you not do an auction draft in the year 2017? But to answer your question, no. I would draft a top 3 rb and immediately try to trade them after the draft.
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Jul 3, 2017 23:24
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Benne posted:Gonna ride Eddie Lacy all the way to the championship True story Eddie Lacy is the single solitary player I have on literally every dynasty team. What I'm saying is that Rawls will have the single greatest RB year ever in tyool 2017.
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Jul 3, 2017 23:29
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Papes posted:Why would you not do an auction draft in the year 2017? Who knows. Most of my leagues are auction. I was just making the point that a battle plan is only good until the first shots are fired!  Forever_Peace posted:
I'll see you Bilal Powell and raise you Jonathan Stewart. Wanna go old school? Give me your aging Joey Galloways. The last few years of his career, you could spend your last pick on him and get a WR2 who'd get all the garbage points. Although to be fair to Sanders, he's not the bad football player affecting his numbers. Forever_Peace posted:True story Eddie Lacy is the single solitary player I have on literally every dynasty team. Also of note. Forever Peace drafted all his dynasty teams from Golden Corral.
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Jul 3, 2017 23:41
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