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All that pressure on labor changes the answer to: Does it make sense for business X to automate X? So there would be a balancing loop, a damping term basically.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 17:17 |
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# ? May 8, 2024 04:37 |
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BrandorKP posted:All that pressure on labor changes the answer to: Does it make sense for business X to automate X? So there would be a balancing loop, a damping term basically. Automation is good in itself. - Is easier to take measures when something is done automatically and in the same way. If you use a machine to paint a wall. You can try different paint mix. If you use humans, they will add a random element making this optimization very hard. - Is easier to forget how it works, to turn into a black box. It free the mind for other stuff. - Is something is wrong, you run it again. If you ask 4 people to stay we whole weekend because something screwed something. You will have a group of very angry people. Machines feel nothing if they have to repeat a task. If is wrong again, because some mistake you made, you don't have a group of angry people that think you are stupid. Machines don't judge us. - Machines don't make mistakes, or the ratio they make mistakes is several orders of magnitude smaller. So even if a automated task cost exactly the same than a manual one, I would still automatize it. Smart business will probably end automatizing everything, not matter the cost, except public facing roles. Humans have a error ratio of about 1%. That will cost you customers. What is the cost of a lost customer? The cost of 1 lost customer is infinite. Tei fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Jul 3, 2017 |
# ? Jul 3, 2017 17:33 |
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Cicero posted:Thanks to higher-level languages and frameworks and IDEs, you need like one programmer-hour to do the work of like a hundred programmer-hour from 50 years ago, and yet instead of demand for programmers going down, it went up, drastically, by at least an order of magnitude. So yeah it's entirely possible that'll happen, because it's happened before. Instead of automating it, companies will just shift programming chores to anonymous teams in India and Pakistan with an American front man who will take the fall if they gently caress up. Since programmers produce nothing but code, they are ripe for offshoring.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 17:55 |
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Dead Reckoning posted:Instead of automating it, companies will just shift programming chores to anonymous teams in India and Pakistan with an American front man who will take the fall if they gently caress up. Since programmers produce nothing but code, they are ripe for offshoring. This is how it works in many companies today.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 18:03 |
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Dead Reckoning posted:Instead of automating it, companies will just shift programming chores to anonymous teams in India and Pakistan with an American front man who will take the fall if they gently caress up. Since programmers produce nothing but code, they are ripe for offshoring. The secret here few people talk about is that most code have a negative value. You are probably ordering a herd of white elephants that will demand water and food and produce very littel. Most written code have the value of a graffty in some backstreet. If you want it fixed, it will probably cost you money!
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 18:14 |
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Dead Reckoning posted:Instead of automating it, companies will just shift programming chores to anonymous teams in India and Pakistan with an American front man who will take the fall if they gently caress up. Since programmers produce nothing but code, they are ripe for offshoring. This has been a boogeyman since at least the late nineties. It's actually fairly common, but it turns out the quality of work you get from extremely cheap offshore teams tends to be absolute poo poo in a lot of real, measurable ways. My last job was like 90% maintenance and cleanup of a codebase that was produced this way and in the end the whole thing was more or less scrapped and rebuilt from the ground up. Basically, what we have now is what the labor market for programmers looks like when the industry is already making heavy use of outsourced labor.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 18:26 |
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Automation isn't going to eliminate computer programming any more than computer generated proofs is going to eliminate math PhDs.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 18:47 |
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It's a good thing programming is so safe from automation, that means that there will be work for all the people who loose other jobs to it! I know my country will totally spend the money on retraining thousands of people into programmers and not just let them languish on unemployment. Another good thing is that techbros are super special and even if economies tank due to large numbers of unemployed then they are still safe because of ......... Programmer magic? My point being that just because you're job is safe doesn't make you safe from the ill effects of automaton in a world that has not prepared for it.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 20:44 |
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ElCondemn posted:This is how it works in many companies today. I wonder how much of automation has been put off, delayed because of outsourcing.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 21:35 |
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BrandorKP posted:I wonder how much of automation has been put off, delayed because of outsourcing.
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# ? Jul 3, 2017 22:02 |
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Tasmantor posted:It's a good thing programming is so safe from automation, that means that there will be work for all the people who loose other jobs to it! I know my country will totally spend the money on retraining thousands of people into programmers and not just let them languish on unemployment. Another good thing is that techbros are super special and even if economies tank due to large numbers of unemployed then they are still safe because of ......... Programmer magic? i wish someone would automate murdering every motherfucker in this thread myself included
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# ? Jul 4, 2017 05:18 |
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Think Thin! posted:i wish someone would automate murdering every motherfucker in this thread myself included Reality has got that one covered as automatic already. Just mind the relatively short queue. But hey, you can jump the line anytime you want.
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# ? Jul 4, 2017 05:24 |
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Paradoxish posted:It's more that these kiosks are probably just going to end up being a stopgap/fallback option until there's more widespread adoption of ordering through an app on your phone. That solves most of the problems (being unfamiliar with the interface, taking too long, etc.) since you can just sit at your table and browse for as long as you want on a device that you're familiar with. Not so sure about the App being the end goal, since the kiosk system takes a lot of kinks out of a system that would otherwise only be partly in McDonald's hands. McDonald's had the app solution for several years here (QuickMac). You could order over the App, drive to the restaurant and get your order in a fast lane just for the App orders in seconds. It wasn't widely used or accepted, maybe because the payment required you to be redirected to your bank/CC site where you had to enter your data every time. However it was a working prototype for the kiosk system. It's now merged with the kiosk system and works a lot better and easier. The kiosks in general are fast and easy especially if you combine them with paying via NFC. The whole ordering process went from "cashier takes your order, puts it together and collect the money" to "you order (at the kiosk or at the one remaining cashier), you pay you get your number and wait until the order is finished by people who just do the order finishing", a completely different and far less hurried and stressful work flow for the people still doing the jobs. It was not only a new tech for ordering, it was a complete restructuring how the restaurants function according to the people I talked with waiting for my orders. Of course it also means you need 3/5/10 fewer cashiers, meaning with the shift system suddenly you need a lot fewer people or people working fewer hours overall at every single McDonald's. Like 20-30 % fewer people. The long term goal is of course also eliminating the last remaining cashier point, once you get the people not able or willing to use a kiosk or who want to pay cash on board. But even now the cashier point is only used rarely and doesn't seem a fixed position, but one that's filled on the fly only when needed. And that's not even a year after all the McDonald's restaurants here were overhauled with kiosks. I'm pretty amazed how quickly people accepted it, when for example self-checkout in super markets or IKEA is DoA here. Decius fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Jul 4, 2017 |
# ? Jul 4, 2017 08:04 |
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Mark Zuckerberg came out in favor of UBI:quote:In a Facebook post about a trip this week to Alaska with wife Priscilla Chan, the Facebook CEO praised the state's Permanent Fund, which pools the state's oil revenue and pays out cash dividends to eligible Alaskans. In 2016, that dividend was $1,022. UBI based on resources exploitation, that is! But he's also implying seizing the means of production? At the least, he recognizes his own industry's push for automation creating unemployment.
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# ? Jul 6, 2017 20:10 |
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It's funded without raising taxes and relies on the principle of small government, therefore it's a bipartisan idea? What?
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# ? Jul 6, 2017 20:24 |
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call to action posted:It's funded without raising taxes and relies on the principle of small government, therefore it's a bipartisan idea? What?
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# ? Jul 6, 2017 20:26 |
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Of course the idea that $1,000 per year is a universal basic income is pretty laughable. And funding it purely on natural resources can't scale to provide an actual UBI for the population.
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# ? Jul 6, 2017 21:56 |
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Raldikuk posted:Of course the idea that $1,000 per year is a universal basic income is pretty laughable. And funding it purely on natural resources can't scale to provide an actual UBI for the population. The PFD is pretty much the first example of a lump sum payment given to people just on the basis of existing, so as a case study it's certainly smart to bring it up. It's essentially the same concept as what a universal income would be.
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# ? Jul 6, 2017 22:00 |
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Dumping some stuff on automation I read back in grad school: http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet Not going to copy / paste it, images have a lot of the info.
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 04:12 |
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This one is older, but the program head still thought it was relevant: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...9KcqIvjB0UB82tA Sorry about the formatting article posted:Four Questions Every CEO Should Ask
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 04:20 |
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I've been looking for this one to post here for a while:
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 04:28 |
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Decius posted:Not so sure about the App being the end goal, since the kiosk system takes a lot of kinks out of a system that would otherwise only be partly in McDonald's hands. McDonald's had the app solution for several years here (QuickMac). You could order over the App, drive to the restaurant and get your order in a fast lane just for the App orders in seconds. It wasn't widely used or accepted, maybe because the payment required you to be redirected to your bank/CC site where you had to enter your data every time. However it was a working prototype for the kiosk system. As someone in the fast food industry I'll tell you you're right on the part about needing fewer cashiers, however this has instead lead to better paying jobs for the remaining employees as they now have to handle more responsibilities. In our stores we now tend to have about as many hourly managers as we do employees who have to handle everything from meal prep during rushes to handling customer complaints.
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 20:39 |
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Paradoxish posted:I don't really disagree with anything you're saying here, except maybe on how long it'll take to get there. Sure, but "when will it happen" isn't really a useful question. It will happen, sooner or later. The more difficult - and more important - question is "what will we do when it happens"? Cicero posted:Thanks to higher-level languages and frameworks and IDEs, you need like one programmer-hour to do the work of like a hundred programmer-hour from 50 years ago, and yet instead of demand for programmers going down, it went up, drastically, by at least an order of magnitude. So yeah it's entirely possible that'll happen, because it's happened before. It's no surprise that there's higher demand for programmers today compared to 50 years ago. After all, 50 years ago, a computer was the size of a room. Today, not only do we have personal computers, but we have computers in our phones, our cars, our TVs, and everything else. On top of that, heavy platform standardization has opened up the software market in a massive way compared to the pre-x86 era. Let's not even mention the existence and evolution of the internet. That doesn't mean that the demand will continue to increase forever, though - we've already shoved computers into pretty much everything we could think of to shove a computer in, whether it's useful or not. Although demand rose fast enough to outpace the losses from automation in the past, there's no guarantee that it will continue - that's up to the specific industry and market conditions.
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 21:55 |
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ColoradoCleric posted:As someone in the fast food industry I'll tell you you're right on the part about needing fewer cashiers, however this has instead lead to better paying jobs for the remaining employees as they now have to handle more responsibilities. In our stores we now tend to have about as many hourly managers as we do employees who have to handle everything from meal prep during rushes to handling customer complaints. Protip: call your employees managers and they'll gladly do lots of extra work for just a few cents more per hour.
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# ? Jul 7, 2017 21:59 |
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Main Paineframe posted:Sure, but "when will it happen" isn't really a useful question. It will happen, sooner or later. The more difficult - and more important - question is "what will we do when it happens"? I just had to wait 30 minutes for my TV OS to update tonight. Most TV's have probably had micrcontrollers and small processors for decades but that's not the end of progress - now they have full blown processors and OS's with a sustaining engineering team somewhere continuing to push out updates and there isn't an indication this trend of more computers with more processing in more things is going to end anytime soon.
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 04:39 |
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Hardware makers are awful. You don't want people like Sony or lesser companies making anything with a OS in it. You want somebody like Apple or Microsoft or Google, a software company. Waiting 30 minutes for a TV to update is stupid. Theres no reason to do that, except programmed by people that consider software a unimportant thing and that only hardware is important. Thats why Apple make phones now. Because you can't expect hardware companies to make a good phone with a OS in it. Thats why Google make phones now. Is not that hardware companies can't make good software. But they dont think software is central to the experience, so they make some token effort and ship the product. They don't think about things like these 30 minutes, so they produce things that work, but have UI and defects like these old VHS players that had a permanent "12:00" blinking because they would lost the date every time they had not energy. IBM quickly found a solution to that when they invented the PC, a small battery. If only the people making VHS machines had access to this incredible technology from the future. Oh, I forgot to mention that companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google also suck and that software also suck. But suck less. Tei fucked around with this message at 06:17 on Jul 8, 2017 |
# ? Jul 8, 2017 06:10 |
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Tei posted:Hardware makers are awful. Apple's a hardware company. (this actually supports your point if you're familiar with their software)
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 12:51 |
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mobby_6kl posted:
Apple is holding this back at least with their insistence that they get 30% cut on anything bought through app store apps, I had a customer wanting this back in 2011 but when I noted it'd be android only they weren't interested
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 14:23 |
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asdf32 posted:I just had to wait 30 minutes for my TV OS to update tonight. Most TV's have probably had micrcontrollers and small processors for decades but that's not the end of progress - now they have full blown processors and OS's with a sustaining engineering team somewhere continuing to push out updates and there isn't an indication this trend of more computers with more processing in more things is going to end anytime soon. Well, yeah. Most TVs these days are just purpose-built computers with a collection of TV-related "apps", just like how smartphones are tiny computers with a cell radio and a phone app. Hell, even soda dispensers run on Windows these days. The trend of more computers in more things is already slowing down, because somebody's already put computers in just about everything it makes sense to put computers in - as well as a bunch of things it doesn't really make sense to put a computer in. We're in a bit of an IoT bubble, and eventually it will pop and return to sanity. The world isn't ready for app-powered smart nightlights that change color if you have any unread emails, let alone smart toilets that analyze your poop.
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 15:31 |
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Vesi posted:Apple is holding this back at least with their insistence that they get 30% cut on anything bought through app store apps, I had a customer wanting this back in 2011 but when I noted it'd be android only they weren't interested Wait really? How does Uber get around that? Or do they just give apple their cut? Main Paineframe posted:Well, yeah. Most TVs these days are just purpose-built computers with a collection of TV-related "apps", just like how smartphones are tiny computers with a cell radio and a phone app. Hell, even soda dispensers run on Windows these days. The trend of more computers in more things is already slowing down, because somebody's already put computers in just about everything it makes sense to put computers in - as well as a bunch of things it doesn't really make sense to put a computer in. We're in a bit of an IoT bubble, and eventually it will pop and return to sanity. The world isn't ready for app-powered smart nightlights that change color if you have any unread emails, let alone smart toilets that analyze your poop.
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 15:38 |
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mobby_6kl posted:Oh you have no idea dude, we're just getting started with IoT!
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# ? Jul 8, 2017 15:55 |
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We're still at the beginning stages of consumer IoT and the main thing holding it back is cost. Once there isn't such a large premium on things such as smart bulbs, we should see it enter the mainstream. Alexa and Hue bulbs are one of those things that sounds stupid at first but, once you integrate them into your life, you can't imagine going back. People that adapt that technology will be much more open to other smart devices throughout their house.
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 03:38 |
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Main Paineframe posted:Well, yeah. Most TVs these days are just purpose-built computers with a collection of TV-related "apps", just like how smartphones are tiny computers with a cell radio and a phone app. Hell, even soda dispensers run on Windows these days. The trend of more computers in more things is already slowing down, because somebody's already put computers in just about everything it makes sense to put computers in - as well as a bunch of things it doesn't really make sense to put a computer in. We're in a bit of an IoT bubble, and eventually it will pop and return to sanity. The world isn't ready for app-powered smart nightlights that change color if you have any unread emails, let alone smart toilets that analyze your poop. It's not slowing down and you don't know what you're talking about. I design hardware for specialized industrial equipment and am currently refreshing a 20 year old product design. It always had a processor and FPGA's but, as I pointed out, now those things are growing comparatively more powerful and absorbing functionality that had to be pure hardware in the past (real-time feedback loops). This example isn't some lovely IOT it's something you've never heard of that's buried deep in the economy and it's more software dependent than ever because software is the best way to do more and more things.
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 04:57 |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cyberiad One of the tales in this book is about a automated bard. A automatic artist, everyone hate it when its bad, but it gets progressive better, on the point it become better than humans, everyone hate it. And love it, and hate it. Is a interesting take. What if machines become better artist than any human?
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 10:27 |
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Main Paineframe posted:as well as a bunch of things it doesn't really make sense to put a computer in. We're in a bit of an IoT bubble, and eventually it will pop and return to sanity. The world isn't ready for app-powered smart nightlights that change color if you have any unread emails, let alone smart toilets that analyze your poop. The idea that we are at the end of the age of putting computers in things and pretty soon it will 'return to sanity" is hilarious. There isn't going to be an electrical device that exists that won't have computer chips in. We are going to get to a point where devices stop having on/off switches because it costs more to build a hole in device casing and set up a bunch of reinforced spring buttons than it does to include a low power 65 cent wifi chip and run an app on a phone to turn it on and off.
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 16:59 |
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Call Me Charlie posted:Alexa and Hue bulbs are one of those things that sounds stupid at first but, once you integrate them into your life, you can't imagine going back. People that adapt that technology will be much more open to other smart devices throughout their house.
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 17:18 |
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Putting processors in things is only increasing and increasing and soon there will be 802.11ah wireless and it will get really crazy
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# ? Jul 9, 2017 18:27 |
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Guavanaut posted:I'm very excited for all of the lights in my house to flash purple and green at 4am because of an unintended side effect of some future political grandstanding between Israel and Iran. I don't use light bulbs because I control my candles, not some man that owns a dam 200 miles away! That drat dam guy could turn them off lightbulbs whenever he wanted!
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# ? Jul 10, 2017 01:23 |
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Fortunately it's pretty easy to spin an induction motor at the right speed regardless of what state malware programs are doing.
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# ? Jul 10, 2017 02:18 |
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# ? May 8, 2024 04:37 |
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Guavanaut posted:Fortunately it's pretty easy to spin an induction motor at the right speed regardless of what state malware programs are doing. Gas centerfuges...
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# ? Jul 10, 2017 05:01 |