|
Yeah that stuff all makes sense, but based on playing fantasy in usually two to four leagues for five years, my experience has been "whoever drafted or grabbed off waivers the killer RB that didn't get injured" is the one who usually wins the championship. The best way to convince me otherwise would be to aggregate data for a few thousand players, dividing between players who drafted zero-RB and those that didn't, and see who wins the most championships. My money is on either "zero RB is worse" or "there's no significant difference." e. you could simulate this, but note that if your simulation is "one player does zero RB while the rest do ADP" that's not a valid test; you have to have the zero-RB player facing a real-world-correct set of opposing players, who would presumably react to the zero-RB player's strategy during the draft, and some of whom would presumably also be doing zero-RB.
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 21:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 16:09 |
|
|
The issue I have with the roto article is that it is failing to take into account the trend that Dallas has started. As teams have geared towards the passing game, defenses are becoming smaller and faster, to become better equipped for that. Dallas has built their offense to exploit those deficiencies and other teams are following suit. I think the last couple of years are showing a shift back towards using a power running game to set up play action, as opposed to passing to set up your running game. Historical data is only relevant in this case if teams continue to adhere to the same philosophy. This may not be the case anymore. So color me skeptical. As I have always maintained, the only drafting philosophy one should adhere to is "which player left on the board is gonna score the most points next season.". Everything else is white noise.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 21:42
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:Yeah that stuff all makes sense, but based on playing fantasy in usually two to four leagues for five years, my experience has been "whoever drafted or grabbed off waivers the killer RB that didn't get injured" is the one who usually wins the championship. The best way to convince me otherwise would be to aggregate data for a few thousand players, dividing between players who drafted zero-RB and those that didn't, and see who wins the most championships. My money is on either "zero RB is worse" or "there's no significant difference." I think that's where the comment to Go Against the Grain is most valuable. If everyone is dead set on going RB RB then Zero RB makes a ton of sense. If everyone goes WR-WR the guy grabbing RBs probably wins it. Going in with a locked in plan either way is dumb. Sataere posted:The issue I have with the roto article is that it is failing to take into account the trend that Dallas has started. As teams have geared towards the passing game, defenses are becoming smaller and faster, to become better equipped for that. Yeah, that first "There's no reason to suppose..." seemed a little facile.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 21:56
|
|
|
Congrats to anyone who scoops up DJ outside of the top 3 because of a sprain.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 22:16
|
|
|
Matt Zerella posted:Congrats to anyone who scoops up DJ outside of the top 3 because of a sprain. Sorry bro, not gonna grab DJ at 7 cause I'm going zeroRB.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 22:26
|
|
|
Thoughts on Ty Montgomery this season? Such an interesting pick. Wait until late pre-season to decide whats going to happen in GB?
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 22:50
|
|
|
Ben Nevis posted:Going in with a locked in plan either way is dumb. This. This has always been true and will be true for the rest of time
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 22:56
|
|
|
ifuckedjesus posted:Thoughts on Ty Montgomery this season? Such an interesting pick. Wait until late pre-season to decide whats going to happen in GB? Too gadgety. A pass-happy offense like GB wants an RB who can north-south three yards on command, everything else is just a bonus. Although Ty is stocky, he just doesn't seem to have the shoulders to fit into the "first down with a cloud of dust" game plan. Now I'm going to go watch Packers games to make sure this isn't me talking out of my butt
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 22:58
|
|
|
Drunk Nerds posted:This. This has always been true and will be true for the rest of time This is one of the reasons I am so glad of how BeerSheets have worked out.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 23:07
|
|
|
Drunk Nerds posted:Too gadgety. A pass-happy offense like GB wants an RB who can north-south three yards on command, everything else is just a bonus. Although Ty is stocky, he just doesn't seem to have the shoulders to fit into the "first down with a cloud of dust" game plan. Last year, Ty Montgomery had 77 carries for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Granted that was use as a gadget carrier, but still, that's Jamaal Charles-like efficiency. e. I honestly think the biggest issue is whether he learns to block. If he does, then we'll actually get to find out if he can be a "first down with a cloud of dust" guy; otherwise, he's doomed to third down/gadget plays.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 23:34
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:Last year, Ty Montgomery had 77 carries for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Granted that was use as a gadget carrier, but still, that's Jamaal Charles-like efficiency. Nah, the biggest issue is the three running backs they drafted this year. That doesn't speak to the teams confidence in Ty Montgomery as a feature back.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 23:43
|
|
|
Ben Nevis posted:Sorry bro, not gonna grab DJ at 7 cause I'm going zeroRB. If he's there at 7 and you don't throw that strategy out immediately, congrats on not making the playoffs.
|
|
#
?
Jul 7, 2017 23:57
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:Last year, Ty Montgomery had 77 carries for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Granted that was use as a gadget carrier, but still, that's Jamaal Charles-like efficiency. This brings up a good question: Is there a site that does stats like number of rushes that go for negative yards? Perhaps just lists every Ty Montgomery rush? Because it's super good to know if his 5.9 yards was without consistent deviation, or if it was like "lost 2 yards, lost 2 yards, lost 2 yards, gained 30 yards" when it comes to figuring out if he is dependable.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 00:49
|
|
|
You should probably get RStudio and mosey on over to the Ground Control thread, friend
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 02:10
|
|
|
Here you go 
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 02:17
|
|
|
Sataere posted:Nah, the biggest issue is the three running backs they drafted this year. That doesn't speak to the teams confidence in Ty Montgomery as a feature back. Very good point, although their highest picked RB was a fourth-rounder. Jamaal Williams could well be the heavyweight between-the-tackles guy with Montgomery doing third downs and such, and that's a significant risk. The other two guys, well, I dunno if they both even make the roster, particularly since GB also has a fullback (Ripkowski) and they picked up an UDFA guy (William Stanbeck). I'd guess Mays and Stanbeck don't make it, or if one of them does, Aaron Jones doesn't, and the deciding factor there is gonna be special teams play with none of them seeing much in the way of offensive snaps. So going back to your point... yeah, Williams could take the starting job, but Montgomery probably still sees lots of play in that event (maybe as much as... Tevin Coleman?) and barring injury, that's his floor. His ceiling is a three-down back with Williams coming in to rest him and those other guys filling in on special teams and occasional spot work.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 02:25
|
|
|
Matt Zerella posted:If he's there at 7 and you don't throw that strategy out immediately, congrats on not making the playoffs. I am, much to my protestations against, the biggest MY STRATEGY dink in this thread (most of those strategies being staunchly anti-strategy, but still an ethos is an ethos) and I'm on board with this 150% I'm going Zero RB until I die, but if DJ is available at my first round pick it's a all but a certainty that I'm picking him. It's just that my next ~6 picks are going to be WRs probably. DJ falling to you after 3 is a zero RB dream because you literally don't have to worry about picking a RB again for like 5 rounds it's literally best case scenario. Having a top 3 pick this year is actually where it gets annoying, because there's very little in the way of truly justifying AB/OBJ/Julio/what have you over the top RBs and then you have to wait like 18-20 picks for your WR1 and WR2 which severely limits your chances of getting top flight WR talent. The Zero RB dream is to have pick 5-6 and somehow by the grace of god DJ or Zeke fall to you, and you laugh all the way to the bank when you somehow get both a legit RB1 and two top-15 ADP WRs e: If DJ fell to me at 6, maybe I'd even pick a TE since I'll need one less 5-7th round pick for a zero RB target!!!!! Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jul 8, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 02:45
|
|
|
Why would David Johnson fall out of the top 3 in anything but a public free league with 3 maniacs picking 1-3? I'd be more concerned about having to make a decision about Zeke if he fell out of the top 3, considering his woman issues, constant car wrecks, and smaller sample size.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 06:32
|
|
|
Teemu Pokemon posted:I am, much to my protestations against, the biggest MY STRATEGY dink in this thread (most of those strategies being staunchly anti-strategy, but still an ethos is an ethos) and I'm on board with this 150% I have him in the 7thas a keeper and am picking 6th. I might go 0RB for the first time ever 
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 06:39
|
|
|
coronaball posted:Why would David Johnson fall out of the top 3 in anything but a public free league with 3 maniacs picking 1-3? I'd be more concerned about having to make a decision about Zeke if he fell out of the top 3, considering his woman issues, constant car wrecks, and smaller sample size. Read back a bit before my comment and you'll see.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 06:42
|
|
|
coronaball posted:Why would David Johnson fall out of the top 3 in anything but a public free league with 3 maniacs picking 1-3? I'd be more concerned about having to make a decision about Zeke if he fell out of the top 3, considering his woman issues, constant car wrecks, and smaller sample size. 2QB league with 6 pt touchdowns?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 06:49
|
|
|
What's the best draft spot this year? I have second choice of slot, and I'm leaning towards grabbing #2 (or 1 if the guy ahead of me doesn't take it) and taking one of the big 3 rbs. Any reason to get clever and pick something else? (Standard league, 12 teams)
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 07:32
|
|
|
If you just want any of the big 3, then take #3 because your second rounder will be better.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 08:00
|
|
|
von Metternich posted:What's the best draft spot this year? I have second choice of slot, and I'm leaning towards grabbing #2 (or 1 if the guy ahead of me doesn't take it) and taking one of the big 3 rbs. Any reason to get clever and pick something else? (Standard league, 12 teams) I would be pretty happy with 4-6. I really like the idea of getting a top flight WR this year.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 13:56
|
|
|
I would take Antonio Brown, Julio, and OBJ over Zeke personally. Top 2 would be the only picks where I would invest in a RB and I strongly prefer DJ to Bell.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 16:21
|
|
|
Papes posted:I would take Antonio Brown, Julio, and OBJ over Zeke personally. Top 2 would be the only picks where I would invest in a RB and I strongly prefer DJ to Bell. This, but Bell 1 overall.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 17:08
|
|
|
Assuming the first six are bell, DJ, zeke, julio, brown, and OBJ, I like to pick fifth or sixth to guarantee an elite player and not miss out on a good second round pick.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 17:53
|
|
|
I like six myself because I get to pick from Zeke/Bell/DJ and ODB/AB84/Julio. History shows one of those three RBs is gonna flop and last year I was worried about the inevitable decline of AB84, but I'm over that. I was clearly wrong. I'd rather have the higher 2nd round pick at the turn. I could be pairing one of those six with Jordy, Ajayi, Howard or Dez and feel real loving good about my top choices.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 18:21
|
|
|
Sataere posted:I like six myself because I get to pick from Zeke/Bell/DJ and ODB/AB84/Julio. History shows one of those three RBs is gonna flop and last year I was worried about the inevitable decline of AB84, but I'm over that. I was clearly wrong. I'd rather have the higher 2nd round pick at the turn. I could be pairing one of those six with Jordy, Ajayi, Howard or Dez and feel real loving good about my top choices. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 18:34
|
|
|
I mean, I'd feel pretty good about DJ / Gronk too. The 10 spot is where things get dicey for me. Current ADP has people starting Gordon / Michael Thomas
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 18:57
|
|
|
Michael Thomas is gonna be magnifique tho Gordon is concerning. There's just so much against him and he's a meh back.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 19:06
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:I mean, I'd feel pretty good about DJ / Gronk too. I've gone McCoy/Freeman a few times and simply given no fucks.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 19:18
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I've gone McCoy/Freeman a few times and simply given no fucks. Can't really fault ya for this. Good a choices as any to be top 5 RBs.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 19:23
|
|
|
So glad I run a 14 team auction league so I don't have to worry about where I draft. Speaking of, Beer could I get a Beersheet for a 1PPR 14 team auction league with yardage bonuses (100 yard = 1 pt for non-QB / 300 yards = 1 point for QB)?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2017 20:39
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I've gone McCoy/Freeman a few times and simply given no fucks. I'd do this every time at the turn.
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:21
|
|
|
Sataere posted:I'd do this every time at the turn. Yeah that's an amazing one-two RB punch to start with
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:28
|
|
|
And then, what are you taking next, at the 26th/27th turn? I'd have a reallllly hard time taking RB-RB at the 12/13 turn, just because the next time you get to take a WR is a looooot of picks later.
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:33
|
|
|
Here's fantasypros ADP  Shady/Devonta and two of Hopkins/Alshon/DT would be a not bad start Spoeank fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jul 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:44
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Here's fantasypros ADP Looks pretty screwy. McCaffrey just one spot after Baldwin, Brady and Brees in the 3rd?!
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:53
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 16:09 |
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:Looks pretty screwy. McCaffrey just one spot after Baldwin, Brady and Brees in the 3rd?! It's FF Calculator and ESPN current ADP. Maybe ESPN skews it. Here's FF Calculator.  You could still get Alshon and DT 
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2017 02:55
|
|