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What is going to be your favorite offseason storyline?
This poll is closed.
The Big3 Tourney 67 22.41%
Will Lakers draft Ball 40 13.38%
Where will the Pauls go 54 18.06%
Will LeBron jump ship to the Spurs or ?? 41 13.71%
Will every team in the league just pivot towards tanking 97 32.44%
Total: 210 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Rebounding is complicated because while ideally you rebound and get back on defense, very few teams in history have actually been able to do both. Coaches often go back and forth (often as frequently as during halves) as to which philosophy they want their team to practice.

Also you can be a bad rebounding team because you shoot too well.

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R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


who is your favorite lovely Bulls player, mine is Fredman J. "Fred" Hoiberg

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

R.D. Mangles posted:

OH HELL YEAH


Dejan made some joke about Hungarian players a few days ago and I was gonna respond "Kornél Dávid REMINDS YOU TO STAY HUNGARY" but i figured a bad pun about the only Hungarian player in NBA history would be too obscure. Now this happens

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Jud Buechler was my man way before I ever imagined I'd go to UofA.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

EvanTH posted:

Dejan made some joke about Hungarian players a few days ago and I was gonna respond "Kornél Dávid REMINDS YOU TO STAY HUNGARY" but i figured a bad pun about the only Hungarian player in NBA history would be too obscure. Now this happens

Never ever doubt RD's memory of Bulls players.

straight up brolic
Jan 31, 2007

After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

:homebrew::homebrew::homebrew:

Andrew Wiggins is dead rear end just his dad

https://twitter.com/mynameisjohn/status/883544828713283585

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

R.D. Mangles posted:

who is your favorite lovely Bulls player, mine is Fredman J. "Fred" Hoiberg


Bobby Portis

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Declan MacManus posted:

Lonzo Ball looks like a really good passer and a really terrible everything else; going 2/15 is worthy of a paddlin'


I meab rebounding is a part of The Four Factors TM so it's at least representative of some skill that affects wins and losses (second chance points generated/prevented? commitment to defensive schemes and player positioning? pulchritude?) idk it seems like a ridiculous conclusion to me

The original question was can the Celtics avoid getting killed on the boards because there is at least one player (Tristan Thompson) who will make life very difficult for them if they do not; no amount of analytics is going to make up for the fact that in the actual Game of Basketball the Celtics have punted on stopping teams from getting aggressive on the boards which will more than likely end up haunting them

Dean Oliver came up with the Four Factors a long time ago, it's possible it doesn't perfectly fit an era where teams shot this accurately and this often from 3. Or the Warriors are so good they just broke math, I dunno

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

R.D. Mangles posted:

who is your favorite lovely Bulls player, mine is Fredman J. "Fred" Hoiberg


Those Sixers jerseys looked so good on Iverson and so bad on everyone else.

Punkin Spunkin
Jan 1, 2010
Ron Mercer
He deserved better than growing up to be a J cole line

Strawberry Panda
Nov 4, 2007

Breakfast Defecting, Slow Dick Touching, Root Beer Barreling SwagVP

MourningView posted:

Dean Oliver came up with the Four Factors a long time ago, it's possible it doesn't perfectly fit an era where teams shot this accurately and this often from 3. Or the Warriors are so good they just broke math, I dunno

The Heat punted rebounding during their championship years as well.

Boredumb
Mar 10, 2005

Cool Buff Man posted:

I always look forward to WhyteRyce summer league heckling stories

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

leftist heap posted:

I just have a hard time buying that rebounding is just somehow dead. If that is the conclusion of "data" then imo there is some part of the analysis that is missing. There's more to life than correlation coefficients, drat it

Rebounding isn't dead it's just been completely neutralized as a critical factor in winning. Elite 3P shooting has become imperative to going for a title in the last five years.

Rick posted:

Also you can be a bad rebounding team because you shoot too well.

That's why shooting has become way, way more important than rebounding these days. We're in an era featuring the best shooting in NBA history ever.

code:
Season	Tm	eFG%
2016-17	GSW	0.563
2015-16	GSW	0.563
2013-14	MIA	0.554
2012-13	MIA	0.552
2006-07	PHO	0.551
2007-08	PHO	0.551
1984-85	LAL	0.551
2016-17	CLE	0.547
2009-10	PHO	0.546
2008-09	PHO	0.545
2016-17	HOU	0.545
1987-88	BOS	0.541
2014-15	GSW	0.54
1994-95	ORL	0.539
2016-17	LAC	0.537
2005-06	PHO	0.537
2013-14	SAS	0.537
Nine of the top seventeen greatest eFG% teams have occurred in the last five seasons.

Lockback posted:

I think the data is overreacting to a couple teams...

In what way?

Zogo fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Jul 8, 2017

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

Going back to Ryan Anderson vs. Carmelo I was surprised to see how closely they ranked in some areas:
http://www.basketball-reference.com...y01&idx=players

MourningView posted:

Dean Oliver came up with the Four Factors a long time ago, it's possible it doesn't perfectly fit an era where teams shot this accurately and this often from 3. Or the Warriors are so good they just broke math, I dunno

Yea, the ORB% factor/axiom is becoming outmoded. The four factors were created in an older and earlier version of basketball. Basketball on Paper was published in 2004 but if it was published in the 1970s then rebounding would've been extremely emphasized.


I'd like to see the consensus +/- numbers for as far as they go back.

Metapod posted:

I understand that the data says that but I truly believe that the data is wrong. Rebounding is a fundamental part of the game to say that it has no correlation to winning is just inaccurate

The correlation between SRS and DRB% last year was .03 SRS and ORB% was .12
.03 is nearly a perfect zero correlation.

It isn't fundamental to be the best at rebounding any longer.

Niwrad posted:

Fire GarPax billboard is going up in a couple weeks.

https://www.blogabull.com/2017/7/7/...dit-lake-racine

I'm surprised Pippen (the Bulls ambassador/advisor) went on TV to talk about this.

Zogo fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Jul 8, 2017

Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost
Well gently caress, reborn4hdlive has switched to a system where the only way to buy a package is via bitcoin or chinese gift cards. Guess I'm back to league pass and punting the dozen or so games a year that the Celtics are nationally broadcast.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

He's a huge disappointment

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Brian Windhorst: LeBron James had active conversations with Jeff Green before decision to sign with Cavs, sources said. – via Twitter WindhorstESPN

JEFF GREEN IS A CAV LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

Shelvin Mack is nearly a magic, a better pg than Elfrid Payton

Salvor_Hardin posted:

Well gently caress, reborn4hdlive has switched to a system where the only way to buy a package is via bitcoin or chinese gift cards. Guess I'm back to league pass and punting the dozen or so games a year that the Celtics are nationally broadcast.

There are some sites that make buying bitcoin really simple. At most you might need to bring a piece of paper to your bank

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 07:39 on Jul 8, 2017

Femur
Jan 10, 2004
I REALLY NEED TO SHUT THE FUCK UP
How would you calculate if it matters if like a 40%efg team got a 2nd opportunity each possession if they missed, but were playing a 55%efg team, with no other factors. Would the 40% team get a sure win?

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

Salvor_Hardin posted:

Well gently caress, reborn4hdlive has switched to a system where the only way to buy a package is via bitcoin or chinese gift cards. Guess I'm back to league pass and punting the dozen or so games a year that the Celtics are nationally broadcast.

Or cut cable and get Sling or Vue.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



or just find streams off reddit (unfortunately the best stream for a couple games i found last season had pepe the frog in the corner for some reason)

jackofarcades
Sep 2, 2011

Okay, I'll admit it took me a bit to get into it... But I think I kinda love this!! I'm Spider-Man!! I'm actually Spider-Man!! HA!
With Jeff Green, the Cavs have added another top 5 pick to their team.

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
Teams used to send 2 or 3 guys to the offensive glass; now they send 1 if any. Everyone's so concerned about giving up open 3s/layups/fouls in transition that transition defense is prioritized over offensive rebounding. It's like when they box out after a free throw - the shot is so likely to go in, and even if it misses the defensive rebounder has such a massive advantage, that the offensive rebounder only gives a token effort. That same dynamic happens on live ball possessions now.

So it doesn't surprise me that rebounding no longer is highly correlated with winning.

Look back at games from earlier decades... every time a shot goes up it is a loving war down there. Now that doesn't happen outside of crunch time or if Tristan Thompson is in the game.

Chairchucker
Nov 14, 2006

to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022




R.D. Mangles posted:

OH HELL YEAH


He was great as the Scarecrow in Batman Begins IMO

rabidsquid
Oct 11, 2004

LOVES THE KOG


R.D. Mangles posted:

who is your favorite lovely Bulls player, mine is Fredman J. "Fred" Hoiberg


tyrus thomas because the amount of gloating the fans did about that draft day trade and the hand wringing over how his per was actually secretly quite good was a fun ride

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch
Taj!!! Noo!!!

http://www.tmz.com/2017/07/07/nba-star-taj-gibson-arrested-new-york-city-driving-suspended-license/

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Minnesota takes responsible driving seriously. Were his tags up to date?

proctorbot posted:

Teams used to send 2 or 3 guys to the offensive glass; now they send 1 if any. Everyone's so concerned about giving up open 3s/layups/fouls in transition that transition defense is prioritized over offensive rebounding. .

Except defensive rebounding doesn't correlate either. You can separate rebounding and even teams that let offensive boards go do Ok.



Declan MacManus posted:


The original question was can the Celtics avoid getting killed on the boards because there is at least one player (Tristan Thompson) who will make life very difficult for them if they do not; no amount of analytics is going to make up for the fact that in the actual Game of Basketball the Celtics have punted on stopping teams from getting aggressive on the boards which will more than likely end up haunting them

Golden State has punted on defensive rebounding harder than Boston and they have been pretty successful but...





Zogo posted:


In what way?

I think there are a couple teams that have had a lot of success despite punting on rebounding, but I don't think it's been neutralized, there just happens to be successful teams that are not good rebounders. To say it's been neutralized you'd need to take a good DRB team like SAS or OKC and make them bad and see how it effects their win percentage. I'm fairly certain it would, and not in the positive.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Femur posted:

How would you calculate if it matters if like a 40%efg team got a 2nd opportunity each possession if they missed, but were playing a 55%efg team, with no other factors. Would the 40% team get a sure win?

It would be very close. I made some assumptions about the other stats involved, and the poor shooting team ended up with 35 more FGA than the good shooting team, and outscored them by 2.5 points. I think that's about the high end. You could make other reasonable assumptions that would make it essentially tied.

BallisticClipboard
Feb 18, 2013

Such a good worker!


Paul Zuvella posted:

Eastern Conference Finals at Bronny's

This is from yesterday but my brain took this idea and ran. There isn't any text because I can't make fonts and google was coming up with nothing.

Anyway, here's this

Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost

Dejan Bimble posted:

There are some sites that make buying bitcoin really simple. At most you might need to bring a piece of paper to your bank

Bite your tongue.

Kibner posted:

Or cut cable and get Sling or Vue.

Haven't had cable in a while. I'll look into those.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Zogo posted:

Rebounding isn't dead it's just been completely neutralized as a critical factor in winning. Elite 3P shooting has become imperative to going for a title in the last five years.


That's why shooting has become way, way more important than rebounding these days. We're in an era featuring the best shooting in NBA history ever.

code:
Season	Tm	eFG%
2016-17	GSW	0.563
2015-16	GSW	0.563
2013-14	MIA	0.554
2012-13	MIA	0.552
2006-07	PHO	0.551
2007-08	PHO	0.551
1984-85	LAL	0.551
2016-17	CLE	0.547
2009-10	PHO	0.546
2008-09	PHO	0.545
2016-17	HOU	0.545
1987-88	BOS	0.541
2014-15	GSW	0.54
1994-95	ORL	0.539
2016-17	LAC	0.537
2005-06	PHO	0.537
2013-14	SAS	0.537
Nine of the top seventeen greatest eFG% teams have occurred in the last five seasons.


In what way?

What your data says about elite shooting teams going for a title is they either need to also be great at defense or have LeBron or both. Rebounding is still important to win because rebounding is apart of limiting your opponents chances. The team that challenged LeBron the most in the East while in Miami was a pacer team that was a great defensive rebounding team and the team that challenged the warriors the most in the West has been a okc team that was great at rebounding. Neither of those teams would I say were elite shooting teams and they both came close to going to the finals.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Salvor_Hardin posted:

Haven't had cable in a while. I'll look into those.

Vue owns but their mid-tier package just went up :10bux: (the others probably did too) which kinda sucks

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Metapod posted:

What your data says about elite shooting teams going for a title is they either need to also be great at defense or have LeBron or both. Rebounding is still important to win because rebounding is apart of limiting your opponents chances. The team that challenged LeBron the most in the East while in Miami was a pacer team that was a great defensive rebounding team and the team that challenged the warriors the most in the West has been a okc team that was great at rebounding. Neither of those teams would I say were elite shooting teams and they both came close to going to the finals.

There are some interactions that make extrapolations from the data very difficult. LeBron aside, teams that are good defensively while being poor defensive rebounders do it by going small. It's not that they are saying that rebounding doesn't matter, it's that they calculate the benefit of being able to switch on pnrs to be more valuable than what they give up through second chances. It isn't clear that just any team can go small and gain an immediate benefit in pnr defense. Presumably some teams don't go small because they don't like to change a good thing (MEM) or because they're not the smartest (NYK), but some teams must avoid small lineups because they don't have the personnel. In any case, as you point out, not any team can just copy the winning strategy of elite teams, they need to make many other adjustments and it may not pay off anyway.

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch
https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/883703921281191936
https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/883704242179002369

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Is Thabo injured ?

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
Thabo, come back to OKC buddy. We supported you during your cornrows phase. We loved you when you shot 28% from 3. We're proud of your Swiss heritage.

MOVIE MAJICK
Jan 4, 2012

by Pragmatica

Dexo posted:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/883399485728083968

Nate Silvers numbers are questionable.

Rondo, Butler amd Wade arent on the alphas list.

Could a NBA team of 6 gammas win a chip?


For example Starting 5: Wall, Beal, PG13, Whiteside, Millsap, Demar as 6 man

Does that beat the Warriors?

Boosh!
Apr 12, 2002
Oven Wrangler

Year 4 of me going drat, I'd take a flier on him.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

Break what must be broken, once for all, that's all, and take the suffering on oneself.

― Corey Dostoyevsky
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/883722955573690370

enjoy

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land





Bring back KJ ('s mom), BC

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Boosh!
Apr 12, 2002
Oven Wrangler

I've talked myself into it. He'll still be under 30 when the contract expires at least. My major concern is he'll win some garbage games in May, costing us lottery slots.

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