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Pro football reference should be able to accommodate that.
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Jul 9, 2017 23:52
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Forever_Peace posted:Pro football reference should be able to accommodate that. Oh nice. I don't think I've ever gone too crazy with their filter, just used it to search like "players at position X drafted within Y pick range".
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Jul 10, 2017 00:08
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Drunk Nerds posted:Yes to most of that. Although, The statement being debated was "Why would anyone draft Paul Perkins when J Stew is still available?" So I think you're agreeing with my rebuttal even though it sounds like you are disagreeing with it. No, unless I misinterpreted the last sentence of your post, I'm contending Stewart has a clear cut advantage in role and opportunity. Giants won't or can't manufacture a run game, and Perkins is a JAG to boot. In any case, I'll admit it's entirely too early to really debate the merits of the 30th and 40th ranked RB.
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Jul 10, 2017 00:35
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RVProfootballer posted:Oh nice. I don't think I've ever gone too crazy with their filter, just used it to search like "players at position X drafted within Y pick range". Yeah they have searchable play by play data going back to 1992. It's pretty great. I actually wrote a script that could slowly scrape the entire rushing database for Ground Control but their policy on crawlers is a bit ambiguous and nobody has been picking up the phone so it's been left in limbo.
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Jul 10, 2017 01:56
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Forever_Peace posted:Pro football reference should be able to accommodate that. Will check it out. Thank you!
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Jul 10, 2017 03:49
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I've enjoyed this J stew-paul perkins debate because it's really made me get in there and examine the Carolina running situation from every angle I can think of. That said, I can't find a single angle that doesn't make me utterly shocked people want to take the 29th overall RB (in STandard, way worse in PPR) in 2016 whose team spent a top 10 pick on a running back... I would rather throw a dart at any other RB1 than that. I really don't get it, but still i have enjoyed this back-and-forth
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Jul 10, 2017 04:00
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I just joined a new Dynasty league and decided to punt/draft for youth for the first time and it was a blast. Normally I try to draft BPA for dynasty startups and I've been ending up like the Bengals (in the playoffs and out quickly) so my draft positions have consistently been poo poo. You can obviously get hits at 1.08-1.12 (hello Michael Thomas!) but I really want a piece of the upper tier of RBs coming out next year, so this time all my players (save one or two) are aged 25 or under and I have 6 1st round picks in 2018 and 2 in 2019. I likely ended up "losing" some of the trades I made to get those 1sts but honestly this is one of the few teams I have where I have the players I want and I am happy, regardless of how this season ends up. --- Now to you all I have to ask: I define "tanking" as not even bothering to put in the best lineup week by week (which I plan on at least putting in that much effort!), however I've been accused of tanking in this league because I valued some positions lower than I probably should have. Case in point: this is a superflex league and my QBs are Trubisky, Watson, Brissett, Boykin, Kaaya (limit 5). The rest of my team looks like: 12 team 1PPR 1.5TE w/KR+PR yards, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/SFlex/2DB/2DL/2LB Trubisky, Watson, etc. Zeke, Abdullah, bunch of dart throws Cooks, Tyreek Hill, Fuller, Tyler Lockett, Stills, Tyler Boyd, bunch of dart throws OJ Howard, Bucky Hodges, Jesse James Byron Jones, Hargreaves III, Eli Apple Leonard Williams, Shaq Lawson Darron Lee, Reuben Foster, Jatavis Brown, other IDP dart throws 6* 2018 1sts, 2* 2019 1sts I'm not going to post all the trades I did as this is getting long enough, but just looking at that roster, would you cry "tanking!"? I mean I went a little hard on the "build on youth" thing but I didn't think it was egregious. 
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Jul 10, 2017 06:21
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Amergin posted:I just joined a new Dynasty league and decided to punt/draft for youth for the first time and it was a blast. Nah, that's absolutely not tanking. Your understanding of it is right: set a full lineup each week and you're not "tanking" in any bad sense of the word. For your actual roster, mostly think you'd have been better off selling Zeke for a haul and stocking up on better WRs. Everyone after Cooks is a massive question mark. Not too late to do that if you choose, of course.
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Jul 10, 2017 14:38
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Amergin you'll want to check this out. Your strategy is called "the productive struggle" https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/06/29/dynasty-blueprint-productive-struggle/
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Jul 10, 2017 15:02
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Nah, it's not tanking. You could've for sure gotten more established players for this year, but you also clearly gave up a lot of your early round picks for future picks. There is a real danger in the strategy you used, because you have a lot of picks the next couple of years, but depending on the draft classes, they could become devalued. Your plan going forward should be to trade most of them constantly down the road, so you only have at most three first rounders in a given year. Ideally two a year to increase your stockpile from year to year. Trading those picks forward will net you extra 2nd and 3rd rounders in the rookie pools for that year. I also think you might have overdone trading for the future. You needed to make sure you got two quarterbacks since it's a superflex league. Quarterbacks last forever and you kinda screwed yourself here.
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Jul 10, 2017 15:52
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Anyone else playing in the Scott Fishbowl? I'm drafting 1.12 and the point per first down in throwing me off. Was originally planning to go QB/TE heavy since there will be position scarcity there. QB because its superflex and TE because most tight ends suck. That said I'm having second thoughts and thinking go RB heavy even if its RB7 & 8 might make sense.
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Jul 10, 2017 16:00
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Then again he got Trubisky, the next Tom Brady. I agree that it's not tanking. I kinda dig how youthful that squad is as well.
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Jul 10, 2017 16:02
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tsbicca posted:Anyone else playing in the Scott Fishbowl? I'm drafting 1.12 and the point per first down in throwing me off. Was originally planning to go QB/TE heavy since there will be position scarcity there. QB because its superflex and TE because most tight ends suck. That said I'm having second thoughts and thinking go RB heavy even if its RB7 & 8 might make sense. There are still 12 teams and that means minimum 24 QBs rostered of just 32 starters in the NFL. I would say you have to go QB-QB despite the first down points. After that, draft for value, e.g. if everyone else is going RB heavy, you can grab premium WRs, etc.
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Jul 10, 2017 17:30
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Amergin posted:QBs are Trubisky, Watson, Brissett, Boykin, Kaaya (limit 5). The rest of my team looks like: I wouldn't call it tanking either, but statistically isn't half your team going to be done in the NFL inside 3 years? Having a bunch of young dudes is good and all, but you have a bunch of guys who have never seen an nfl snap and may wash out inside of 2 seasons. Add in your future firsts and you are statistically in a world of hurt by the 2020 season. Probably can trade a bunch of the picks away before next years draft for a half dozen mid-age guys like Randall Cobb or AJ Green or someone to beef up the developing WRs for few years.
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Jul 11, 2017 00:15
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Thanks for the advice all. I figure I'll be holding the 1sts until next offseason, let them build in value leading up to the 2018 draft and get rid of a few then. I'm hoping the 2018 class of QBs shows up so I can build some QB depth there, or if it doesn't pan out I'll try to trade for a QB midseason (say if Mariota or Luck get hurt again I'll try to buy low). My WRs I was a bit stuck on... my 2nd pick was Hopkins who I flipped for 2 rookie 1sts and a couple startup picks, that was sort of the trade that started this madness. Not sure that was a wise trade but we'll see. I'm hoping Lockett and Hill give decent points considering it's a PR/KR league but I agree my depth right now isn't there for anything really. I'll be scouring the waivers this year in this league to try and pick up guys early, either for depth or to trade high for future picks or other dart throws. I'm holding onto Zeke right now just because his value has taken a hit over him possibly getting punished by the NFL. I'm not sure I want to trade him though as he seems like he could be a solid cornerstone around which I can build this team. I know the thinking is I should build around young stud WRs as cornerstones but the only one I like there (youth-wise) is OBJ (I think the first half of last year was a peak for Evans, not a new normal) and his owner LOVES him and would ask for an arm and a leg.
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Jul 11, 2017 02:38
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It's always good to have 1sts and feel out other owners during the draft. I've gotten some stupid steals when the rookie fever blinders go on. That 2014 draft class has inflated the value of picks for the last few years.
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Jul 11, 2017 02:58
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Ayudo posted:In any case, I'll admit it's entirely too early to really debate the merits of the 30th and 40th ranked RB. Well, while that obviously has merit, there's something to be said for being able to spot a trend. For instance last year, some people were a little gun shy to draft DeMarco Murray "just" based on preseason, whereas those of us who had been barfing up stats about Mike Mularkey and the Titans line were confidently grabbing him. It also makes every debate a win-win: If I win, I get to be right. If I lose, I get to see a potential trend starting that would make j-Stew a crazy sneaky pick, should things continue.
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Jul 11, 2017 03:32
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Drunk Nerds posted:I've enjoyed this J stew-paul perkins debate because it's really made me get in there and examine the Carolina running situation from every angle I can think of. That said, I can't find a single angle that doesn't make me utterly shocked people want to take the 29th overall RB (in STandard, way worse in PPR) in 2016 whose team spent a top 10 pick on a running back... I would rather throw a dart at any other RB1 than that. I really don't get it, but still i have enjoyed this back-and-forth This is honestly my thinking, i'm not touching any RB who's team drafted a RB anywhere that high, even if all signs and hype pieces point to that said rookie not having a significant impact on his workload. But hell, just having your team draft a RB that high is already significant impact. I mean if JStew does pan out and still gives you RB2 numbers, that's great, but i'd rather let someone else find that out. At least in Perkins case, he's got a clear cut path to being the starting RB with minimal competition besides Vereen? VietCampo fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Jul 11, 2017 |
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Jul 11, 2017 21:55
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VietCampo posted:This is honestly my thinking, i'm not touching any RB who's team drafted a RB anywhere that high, even if all signs and hype pieces point to that said rookie not having a significant impact on his workload. But hell, just having your team draft a RB that high is already significant impact. Do you think Paul Perkins has upside that exceeds a rb2? If not why would you take a player with the same ceiling and floor 2 rounds earlier? Papes fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Jul 11, 2017 |
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Jul 11, 2017 22:35
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VietCampo posted:I mean if JStew does pan out and still gives you RB2 numbers, that's great, but i'd rather let someone else find that out. At least in Perkins case, he's got a clear cut path to being the starting RB with minimal competition besides Vereen? Vereen (edit: if PPR!) or Gallman in the last round or off the wire is more appealing to me than Perkins in the 6th or 7th or whatever. If we're talking draft capital and all that, Giants wouldn't have taken a big bruiser in the 4th this year if they thought their run game was good. JAG. sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Jul 11, 2017 |
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Jul 11, 2017 22:44
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Regarding Gallman, this is from Giants running backs coach Craig Johnson:quote:“Coming from college, he was a very productive runner,” Johnson stated. “Stats don’t lie. So far what I’ve seen in practice is that he has been effectively able to run the ball in the runs he’s been given. The pass protection, he’s coming along in. He’s certainly made a big improvement in the last week or so. He’s been able to catch the ball effectively. Again, as a young back, he’s trying to figure it all out. The game is a little too fast for him, like they are for every back right now when they’re young. The game starts to slow down and he’s starting to get it. I’ve seen a couple bursts. I think he will continue to get it in the future.”
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Jul 11, 2017 23:22
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He doesn't need to pass protect to run it in from the 2 yard line
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Jul 12, 2017 00:21
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Ran a hardcore battle royal in MDickie's Mpire for draft order this year. Got #5 in this 10 man league. I dunno how I feel about that. Seems the later draft position is best this year  Also, if Jimmy Graham goes before 5th round, I think I'm gonna target Martellus & Gates in a lot of drafts.
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Jul 12, 2017 00:23
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RVProfootballer are... are you Wayne Gallman
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Jul 12, 2017 00:33
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RVProfootballer posted:He doesn't need to pass protect to run it in from the 2 yard line Giants will be rolling out the same poo poo heap line as last year (plus DJ Fluker I guess), and were last in the league in rushing TDs with six. No one should care about the carousel of jags carrying the ball there.
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Jul 12, 2017 01:01
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Spoeank posted:RVProfootballer are... are you Wayne Gallman Lol  But seriously, it's like Langford last year or any of a million other awful guys over the years. Perkins is bad, Gallman likely is too but costs way less. Don't draft Jeremy Langford or Bishop Sankey or Zac Stacy or Paul Perkins with a mid round pick just because they have the shakiest of holds on the starting job during preseason. Now hit me with all the times those mid round garbage RBs have hit! 
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Jul 12, 2017 01:03
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This was PFF literally a year ago after the Giants drafted Perkins:""Don't Be Surprised If Rookie Paul Perkins Wins The Giants' RB Job" posted:Former UCLA Bruin Paul Perkins dropped all the way to the fifth round in the draft as the running back position continues to be devalued, but we at PFF had a late-second-round draft grade on him as the third-best running back in the class. As a junior in 2015, Perkins led the draft class in both rushing grade and elusive rating, which is PFF’s measure of how productive a back is independent of his blocking. So why do you think he is so bad? Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Jul 12, 2017 |
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Jul 12, 2017 01:23
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Tiptoes posted:
He played NFL games and was bad in them. The giants are not going to be in a position to run enough to make him a good volume fantasy back and he's not efficient enough to be productive without volume.
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Jul 12, 2017 01:37
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Tiptoes posted:This was PFF literally a year ago after the Giants drafted Perkins: Because we actually saw him in the NFL and that matters more than college scouting reports? quote:In his first NFL season, Perkins ranked 40th out of 62 qualified running backs with an overall grade of 67.8. "But he's an amazing pass protector! Only one QB pressure allowed!" Yeah on 31 snaps that he stayed in to block. He just doesn't have upside. Vereen is a far better pass catcher, Gallman is (probably) a better goal line back, Perkins isn't fast or elusive and won't have a good line. Langford was a more enticing pick last year than Perkins is this, at least we thought he'd be a 3rd down back if he fell on his face as the bellcow. sourdough fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Jul 12, 2017 |
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Jul 12, 2017 01:41
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What do you guys think about Jordan Howard this year? In my goon keeper league, I have DJ for $11, Howard for $6, and Zeke for like $55. I could replace any of those with Nuk for like $25.
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Jul 12, 2017 02:15
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You don't throw out a young player's college analysis just because his limited rookie year sample didn't impress. You have to factor in everything and acknowledge how the player is growing. That's how everyone missed on Devonta Freeman's sophomore breakout; even people who liked him coming out of college considered him trash after his rookie year. I take grades from limited samples on a case-by-case basis and if a player ends the year in a better place than how he started it, then I'm not going to worry so much if the full-season grades aren't real generous. The same website a year ago had him as the most elusive RB in his draft class with an ability to gain yards even when getting met in the backfield, so he has skills that can translate to success even behind a below-average line. I'm not just going to forget that part as Perkins is still that same player physically. Sometimes those skills don't translate immediately as guys have to get used to the speed of the NFL game. So I just don't believe those grades tell the whole story of Perkins' game. They don't even seem that terrible for a rookie.
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Jul 12, 2017 02:37
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I tend to agree with the line of thinking that "if a player underperforms in his rookie year, that doesn't necessarily mean he's a JAG" but the Giants are a special case due to their limited use of RBs. If I can get Perkins after say round 7, I'd probably do it. I want him to be my second RB on my bench if possible. I do not want him to be my RB2 or RB3 if I can help it. I actually just took a look and the Giants have a rough schedule this season... almost every opponent has a good to great offense or good to great (run) defense so I really don't think he has a great ceiling this year unless he goes off like Freeman. He's most likely a better dynasty prospect than redraft.
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Jul 12, 2017 03:17
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Tiptoes posted:You don't throw out a young player's college analysis just because his limited rookie year sample didn't impress. You have to factor in everything and acknowledge how the player is growing. That's how everyone missed on Devonta Freeman's sophomore breakout; even people who liked him coming out of college considered him trash after his rookie year. I take grades from limited samples on a case-by-case basis and if a player ends the year in a better place than how he started it, then I'm not going to worry so much if the full-season grades aren't real generous. The same website a year ago had him as the most elusive RB in his draft class with an ability to gain yards even when getting met in the backfield, so he has skills that can translate to success even behind a below-average line. I'm not just going to forget that part as Perkins is still that same player physically. Sometimes those skills don't translate immediately as guys have to get used to the speed of the NFL game. So I just don't believe those grades tell the whole story of Perkins' game. They don't even seem that terrible for a rookie. The gist of what you're saying is totally fair, but you also can't just ignore that there are tons of guys who tear it up on college and fail miserably as a pro. He had the 5th most carries of any rookie RB last year, two more than Henry. Can we judge Booker and Kelley to be plodders and/or not good because they had 50 more carries than Perkins, or do they get to live off their college tape still too? He couldn't beat out Rashad Jennings. Now Vereen is back, so you're already looking at an early down workload at best.
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Jul 12, 2017 04:19
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Actually, let me elevate my shitposting for a sec. There are a good number of semi-established vets with not super premium rookies behind them. Who do you think gets usurped, maybe order em? Latavius Murray / Dalvin Cook Jeremy Hill / Gio Bernard / Joe Mixon Rob Kelley / Samaje Perine Carlos Hyde / Joe Williams Paul Perkins / Wayne Gallman Ty Montgomery / Jamal Williams or Aaron Jones Mark Ingram or AP / Alvin Kamara Who else am I missing? Obviously Cook with Murray's foot surgery is a great bet, Mixon a bit less likely but has a good shot to unseat Hill. Everyone has anointed Perine over Kelley, I don't really know enough about them to know. Everyone thinks Hyde is gone, everyone is sure Perkins is going to dominate, people seem fairly confident Montgomery won't hold his job as the early down guy. Kamara is sort of complementary, but Ingram did catch a bunch of passes, so is Kamara going to take all that from him? Dunno.
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Jul 12, 2017 04:49
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Odds of starting more than half of the team's games at season's end: 1. Mixon decent gap 2. Cook 3. Perine 4. Kamara gap 5. Williams/Jones 6. J. Williams* huge massive cavernous I'm talking the grand canyon gap 7. Wayne Gallman *Hyde gets at least a six game leash, then Hightower gets at least three games to prove he's the starter before Williams starts. There's also ~Matt Breida, SPARQ superstar~ Spoeank fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jul 12, 2017 |
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Jul 12, 2017 05:05
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Dammit, knew I forgot someone. Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt. Dynasty community seems all ready to give Hunt the job, but I don't really buy it yet. Ware was decent iirc. Also, you're not buying the rumblings about Hyde being out of favor/a bad fit, or Shanahan's love for Joe Williams? (I'm not, tbh, but still a little scared for dynasty teams I have Hyde on) And Hightower getting a shot?! Gross.
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Jul 12, 2017 05:12
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Carlos Hyde is the most talented running back on that roster, full stop. Fantasy prognosticators are tired of being burned by him so they've wish-crafted Joe Williams stealing the job into a thing from some beat writers talking about how Hyde is having trouble in shorts.
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Jul 12, 2017 05:15
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^^^^^^^^^^ The Williams thing isn't entirely wishcasting. Shanahan is definitely a coach who knows how to handpick the right guys for his scheme. But I agree he won't overcome a healthy Hyde. Whether Hyde stays healthy is another matter. RVProfootballer posted:Actually, let me elevate my shitposting for a sec. There are a good number of semi-established vets with not super premium rookies behind them. Who do you think gets usurped, maybe order em? 2. Perine > Kelley. I don't believe Kelley holds off the talented rookie and WAS will have plenty of red zone opportunities. 3. Cook > Murray. Think Murray winds up the odd man out in MIN sooner rather than later. McKinnon will have a larger role than people expect, I think, but have to respect Cook's upside. Guys Who Won't Start 4. Kamara. AP will be lead dog while healthy but Kamara will still be valuable as a passing down specialist at first. Ingram will have the dumb role that makes his fantasy owners regret taking him. If AP gets hurt, Kamara ought to have bought himself enough goodwill by that point to maybe force a timeshare with Ingram. 5. Williams. Probably a stash to start the year but Hyde has been snakebit by injuries lately and that could force Williams into the picture. And like Spoeank mentioned, Matt Breida is also a name to keep in mind. 6. (Honorary Mention) Oakland's guys: DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard. Comes with the stipulation that Lynch is THE MAN. Unless he's busted (he probably isn't). But if he is, those kids are talented and can probably be relied upon as sophomores. I favor Washington over Richard. Nooooooooooope 7. Green Bay's guys might wind up with decent roles as rookies. I do fear Montgomery is in that special place where fantasy players like him a LOT more than Aaron Rodgers/Mike McCarthy actually do but I don't think he gets jumped by the other guys unless a true disaster happens. More likely the worst case scenario is more of an ugly looking committee where Montgomery has the most value but isn't as good as he could be and Williams/Jones still don't see any real volume. 8. Wayne Gallman SUUUUUUUUUUUCKS. Well he probably doesn't actually but his pass blocking was a knock on him coming into the league. Dynasty stash for now but my gut says Orleans Darkwa has a bigger 2017 role than Gallman.
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Jul 12, 2017 06:37
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RVProfootballer posted:Latavius Murray / Dalvin Cook "Will naturally be starter by Week 6" Tier Cook > Murray CMC > Stewart (maybe? depends on usage) "Requires an injury to be starter" Tier (best -> worst order) Bernard > Mixon > Hill Kelley > Perine Hyde > Williams Ingram > Kamara Ware > Hunt Miller > Foreman Martin >= Rodgers > McNichols TyMont > Jones >= Williams Blount > Smallwood > Pumphery Bell >>> Conner "No" tier Perkins > Gallman Forte/Powell > McGuire Lynch > * (but really Lynch > Washington >= Richard > Hood) Amergin fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Jul 12, 2017 |
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Jul 12, 2017 06:57
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Amergin posted:"Will naturally be starter by Week 6" Tier I'd quibble slightly over a couple, but this looks almost perfect to me and good job making it comprehensive.
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Jul 12, 2017 07:29
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