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fnox
May 19, 2013



BeigeJacket posted:

Why the gently caress were senior politicians on a tv tarot show? Is that a big thing in Venezuela?

To be fair, they weren't senior politicians at the time. Leopoldo Lopez was then the mayor of Chacao; Nicolas Maduro, Tarek William Saab and Cilia Flores were deputies. The rest of the guests were, albeit notable at the time, not in any senior government positions.

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Gozinbulx
Feb 19, 2004


Muerte al chavismo, Libertad al pueblo

Gozinbulx fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Jul 8, 2017

I dont know
Aug 9, 2003

That Guy here...

Gozinbulx posted:



Muerte al chavismo, Libertad al pueblo

Where was this taken?

Also that is a lovely painting of a monkey smoking a cigarette.

Gozinbulx
Feb 19, 2004
Where else, Miami.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Huge news this morning: Leopoldo Lopez has been transferred to house arrest. He was taken to his home at around 3:00 AM this morning by prison authorities.

The news is still breaking so a lot of the details are still coming out, but from what I'm hearing he was granted house arrest by the Supreme Court due to health reasons. One of the conditions of the house arrest is that he wear monitoring bracelet.

Now we wait for Maduro to say something stupid about this, like Leopoldo called him crying and begged him to let him join the PSUV in exchange for going home.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I am remembering correctly that the last time he shouted something from the prison it was that he was being tortured?

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Mozi posted:

I am remembering correctly that the last time he shouted something from the prison it was that he was being tortured?

Yes, that is correct. That was not too long ago. Also, yesterday was the first time in 32 days that anyone had been allowed to visit Lopez.

I just heard a snippet from a Spanish radio interview with Lopez's father in which he said that his son is coming out of a 3-day stint in solitary confinement in which he was kept isolated for the 72 hours in a completely dark cell (no window or light) without any food. That's what Lopez allegedly told his father after they spoke on the phone this morning.

The news broke out of Spain, which suggests that Jose Luis Zapatero had something to do with this. He's a former Spanish PM who has been floating around Venezuela for a few years trying to mediate between the PSUV and the opposition.

fnox
May 19, 2013



That is huge, holy poo poo. We still need more info to know what the full repercussions of this action will be. I really, really hope the opposition didn't make another piss poor deal to get him released.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
There's a lot of confusion and mixed feelings right now about this.

Obviously this is great news because Lopez is 100% innocent of the crimes of which he was convicted. His arrest, trial and conviction were universally condemned as a complete farce by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights. One of the prosecutors on the case, Franklin Nieves, escaped Venezuela at the end of the trial and told the media numerous times that he received strict orders from his superiors at the Public Ministry to falsify the entire case against Lopez, and that Lopez is completely innocent.

On the other, the skeptical Venezuelan is panicking right now because this is a huge concession from the regime. Like fnox said, is this the result of some kind of secret negotiation between the opposition and the PSUV? If so, what were the terms of the house arrest? Lopez often said he would be the last political prisoner released. Does this mean he was moved out of the prison against his will? Will people react to the house arrest by cooling down the streets? Or will they sense a weakness in the regime and continue to build pressure through protest?

So many questions!

fnox
May 19, 2013



I want to believe that Maduro was forced to do this to save face for that attack on the Parliament, and that it wasn't an exchange with the opposition at all.

I don't see this cooling down the streets, I highly doubt that if Leopoldo Lopez is allowed to speak, he will call people to stand down. I really want to believe that this is the government being forced to play their best bargaining chip early.

I have unofficial reports of more people being put under house arrest today. We'll see.

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Chuck Boone posted:


On the other, the skeptical Venezuelan is panicking right now because this is a huge concession from the regime. Like fnox said, is this the result of some kind of secret negotiation between the opposition and the PSUV? If so, what were the terms of the house arrest? Lopez often said he would be the last political prisoner released. Does this mean he was moved out of the prison against his will? Will people react to the house arrest by cooling down the streets? Or will they sense a weakness in the regime and continue to build pressure through protest?

So many questions!
It could also be a very simple reason that doesn't involve mediation/dialogue with the opposition: Lopez was determined to be in too much of a deteriorating health condition, and him dying outside of a state prison is better than him dying inside of one. The only way to lessen the blow in such a scenario is to release him, because the government having to come out and say that Lopez is dead (and he is too high-profile to keep completely out of contact for too long) would generate a much worse response.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Here is a link to a live stream of the media frenzy outside the Lopez family home in Caracas, where Leopoldo is now staying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aN6ZJXMrgWI

It's 11:00 AM EST, and a few people are getting ready to give the first official statements on this development.

Gozinbulx
Feb 19, 2004
Really eerie lack of activity in this thread over the weekend..

ThisIsWhyTrumpWon
Jun 22, 2017

by Smythe
That's because nobody knows what the gently caress is going on.

Conspiracy theories abound.

Maduro said on state television he approved of the release of Leopoldo Lopez - pissing off many Madurists in the proccess. The Chavistas meanwhile have found new reasons to criticize him and the theory circulating is that this is all something set in motion by Diosdado to get rid of Maduro and take over the Presidency.

Meanwhile other sources believe the cause of Leopoldo's release is the withdrawal from secret peace talks by ex-spanish president Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in a attempt to pressure the PSUV -

Lepoldo's wife made a statement today about "collaborating" with the Maduro Government in the name of peace that kind of lined up with this concept and /r/vzla are currently pissed off at the MUD because of it.

That really kind of underlines how complex the situation is. The people in the street don't trust the MUD at all - they believe that they are secretly negotiating with the PSUV and that these negotiations won't end up solving anything. I believe the vast majority believe widespread civil war is the only solution to get the PSUV out of power.

They believe that these talks will only lead to Maduro being smoke-screened out of power - and someone else in the PSUV being put in his place - with tons of officialist propaganda now declaring Maduro was bad and Diosdado (or whoever) is the new face of the PSUV and "true" Chavismo. The people killed in the protests will be ignored. No real reform or justice will be done. Things will continue to be bad forever.

Mind you the PSUV is not united. There are Madurist wings and Chavista wings - and they don't see eye to eye. Whether there is any meaningful difference between the two groups I doubt. Just royalty sparring for the throne.

Meanwhile the ex-president of the PDVSA Rafael Ramirez is being investigated for the embezzlement of $11,271,148,806 in state funds - which is a shitload of money.

ThisIsWhyTrumpWon fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Jul 10, 2017

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Yeah, there's definitely lots of :tinfoil: theories out there. I don't tend to put a lot of stock in any of them, but this is what you get in situations like this one where things move fast and are confusing.

Another reason why things may seem to be slower than usual is because there's a lot of anticipation building up to Sunday. The opposition is calling the July 16 plebiscite "Zero Hour". No one's sure how that day is going to go down, or what will happen after. If the plebiscite gets lots of participation and people vote for immediate generals elections, etc., then the institutional crisis tearing the state in two will get worse.

Not only that, but the Constituent Assembly election is on the 30th. The feeling is that the last two weeks of this month are going to be really intense.

By way of an update about what's happened over the last two days or so...

People got a look at Leopoldo Lopez outside of prison for the first time in almost three years on Sunday. National Assembly vice president Freddy Guevara was giving a press briefing outside of Lopez's family home in Caracas when Lopez climbed a latter from behind the wall and waved to the crowd. People went nuts:

https://twitter.com/VP_Canada/status/883749773941112832

Like ThisIsWhyTrumpWon said, Lopez's wife (Lilian Tintori) said yesterday that she was "thankful" for the help of Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez in getting Lopez home. That was a really tone-deaf comment, because as key players in the oppressive dictatorship that is the PSUV, Jorge and Delcy are a huge reason why Lopez got arrested in the first place. You don't thank the kidnappers for returning your loved one because they were wrong to take him in the first place.

The MUD held a rally yesterday in Caracas to mark the 100 days of anti-regime protests. A ton of people showed up:

https://twitter.com/Yo_Cayito/status/884102088552321024

During the rally, a MUD representative (I think it was Freddy Guevara) announced a "lock-down" protest for today (that's when people block roads and stay home to essentially shut the country down). The representative said that the lock-down would last two hours, but the crowd didn't like that and started chanting "Ten! Ten! Ten!":

https://twitter.com/RCamachoVzla/status/884111324334215168

The MUD came back later in the day and said, "Alright fine, let's do a ten hour lock-down". Which brings us to today.

From the pictures that I'm seeing on Twitter, lots of major roads in Caracas and other cities are deserted.

The Francisco de Miranda avenue in Caracas:

https://twitter.com/VoluntadPopular/status/884465745568071681

This is an avenue in Santa Fe, also in Caracas:

https://twitter.com/CaraotaDigital/status/884465662520963072

And Altamira:

https://twitter.com/CaraotaDigital/status/884465421390413824

There are also clashes around the city. This is somewhere near the UCV:

https://twitter.com/hispanopost/status/884473378442235904

This is in the El Trigal area of Valencia:

https://twitter.com/MichaelixEricVP/status/884473781477158918

https://twitter.com/ValenciaHoy/status/884470498939293696

I'm not sure where this is, but it's probably in Maracaibo:

https://twitter.com/JuanPGuanipa/status/884470980890025984

Like ThisIsWhyTrumpWon said, Rafael Ramirez has been on the news today. We've known for years now that the dude stole millions and million and millions of dollars while he was the head of PDVSA. Now he's the ambassador of the UN. Anyway, someone saw him in restaurant in NYC yesterday and started calling him out for being a corrupt scumbag (Ramirez is the older guy with glasses);

https://twitter.com/MariaAlesiaSosa/status/884218872655740928

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/884514150638137344

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Here's another shot of that same event:

https://twitter.com/CybernetVzla/status/884528489550016513

I read a tweet that said that one soldier had been injured.

EDIT: The National Guard has confirmed that seven soldiers were injured in the explosion: two with second degree burns, and five with third degree burns.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Jul 10, 2017

ThisIsWhyTrumpWon
Jun 22, 2017

by Smythe

Chuck Boone posted:



EDIT: The National Guard has confirmed that seven soldiers were injured in the explosion: two with second degree burns, and five with third degree burns.

That's not good.

At least no one died.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:

That's not good.

At least no one died.

Not there, anyway.

A 17-year-old kid named Ruben Dario Gonzalez was shot to death a little while ago in the La Isabelica neighbourhood of Valencia in Carabobo state. It's not clear if he was killed by an official state security office or by a pro-regime militia, but the fact that he was shot dead tells me that it was likely the latter. He's the 91st fatality since April 1 by my count (I think the Public Ministry's official count is now up to 92 or 93).

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
The chavez militas are going to be a nightmare for any future government to deal with.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Valencia saw lots of unrest today. Aside from the area where Ruben Gonzalez was killed, the neighbourhood of El Trigal was the site of clashes for most of the day.

This video is pretty nuts. It shows Carabobo State Police officers knocking over a man on a bicycle. The man wipes out on the pavement, gets up and runs for his life. Then, a police officer calmly steals his bike and drives away:

https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/884574828010901506

There's no reason to believe that the man was a protester, by the way. It's very possible that he wasn't participating in the protests, but was merely driving by. It's not at all uncommon for state security forces to attack/rob/arrest people they find near protests, regardless of whether or not they're actually participating.

The short clip below captured some of the chaos in El Trigal this afternoon:

https://twitter.com/AndrewsAbreu/status/884492603781242880

Pharohman777 posted:

The chavez militas are going to be a nightmare for any future government to deal with.

This one of the many "What's gonna happen with...?" questions that come up when people think about the post-chavista era. There are lots of factors to consider, including how cohesive and organized the colectivos might remain if the state's protective umbrella is suddenly taken away from them, but I think you're right in saying that things could get really ugly.

EDIT: I forgot to include these two images, which I think are iconic of the regime's oppression:

https://twitter.com/alcaldeledezma/status/884544569739796481

https://twitter.com/marinoalvarado/status/884588117197500416

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Jacobin Magazine finally published an article saying Maduro's failed, but it's still in the context of saying he failed to live up to the ideals of Chavez (while quietly noting that the government failed to save for a long time when the money was coming in). It still has a ton of paranoid conspiracy bullshit about right wing mercenaries though, and says the people shooting civilians around the protests are right wing instead of the soldiers and colectivos the people who are actually there are blaming. Even when admitting the failure of an authoritarian left wing party, they couldn't abandon the tankie scapegoating and deflection entirely.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/07/venezuela-maduro-helicopter-attack-psuv-extractivism-oil

fnox
May 19, 2013



OK so Lilian keeps loving up, saying stupid poo poo on press releases, but I highly doubt that Leopoldo's "release" (He's still imprisoned, just under house arrest) was the result of any concessions being granted by the opposition to the government. To me it appears that the move was forced onto Maduro due to international pressure, after the siege of the National Assembly, he desperately needed to save face to stay afloat for just a little longer and that required him to spend his last remaining bargaining chip. While Lilian's idiotic comments are harming Leopoldo's position in the eyes of the opposition, granting even this to the "murderer" Leopoldo Lopez, and having it be something done on the behest of the president, as well as Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez, is a highly unpopular move among remaining militant Chavistas, that's something to consider as well.

I think the reaction to Lilian's very poorly worded comments calling for union between former Chavistas and the opposition against the government is rather worrying though. It's necessary to have a number of dissident Chavistas (a minority overall, of course) in the future transitional government to maintain stability, if we alienate the remaining, reactionary Chavista voter base, there is a very real threat of armed conflict.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Seems like there is already armed conflict in your country, it's just that one side has all the arms.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Sinteres posted:

Jacobin Magazine finally published an article saying Maduro's failed, but it's still in the context of saying he failed to live up to the ideals of Chavez (while quietly noting that the government failed to save for a long time when the money was coming in). It still has a ton of paranoid conspiracy bullshit about right wing mercenaries though, and says the people shooting civilians around the protests are right wing instead of the soldiers and colectivos the people who are actually there are blaming. Even when admitting the failure of an authoritarian left wing party, they couldn't abandon the tankie scapegoating and deflection entirely.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/07/venezuela-maduro-helicopter-attack-psuv-extractivism-oil

as I recall, the position is that the left-wing militias don't really exist and are a slanderous myth perpetrated by the right

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/06/collective-panic-in-venezuela/

Zero_Grade
Mar 18, 2004

Darktider 🖤🌊

~Neck Angels~

Gozinbulx posted:

Where else, Miami.
This must be from Wynwood.

and i must meme
Jan 15, 2017

Sinteres posted:

Jacobin Magazine finally published an article saying Maduro's failed, but it's still in the context of saying he failed to live up to the ideals of Chavez (while quietly noting that the government failed to save for a long time when the money was coming in). It still has a ton of paranoid conspiracy bullshit about right wing mercenaries though, and says the people shooting civilians around the protests are right wing instead of the soldiers and colectivos the people who are actually there are blaming. Even when admitting the failure of an authoritarian left wing party, they couldn't abandon the tankie scapegoating and deflection entirely.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/07/venezuela-maduro-helicopter-attack-psuv-extractivism-oil

lol the position on jacobin from actual tankies is that they are imperialist shills
i've seen fairly moderate leftists threaten to unsubscribe because of their position on venezuela

https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/884433708752568322

read the replies to this tweet and see what i mean. i can't get my head around it

skeleton warrior
Nov 12, 2016


Wow, that's a bunch of white middle-class people sneering about how any criticism of the revolution makes you a fascist

Jesus I'm glad I'm not in college anymore

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
I've never in my life been able to get through a Jacobin article on Venezuela without requiring surgery to remove my eyes from the back of my head.

There have been two protest-related fatalities over the last two days. The total number is now 93 since the protests began on April 1. The fatalities were:
  • Oswaldo Rafael Britt (17): Run over by a truck registered to a state-owned energy company in Ciudad Bolivar on July 11. It looks like Britt was protesting near a barricade that was blocking traffic when he was run over. The protesters who witnessed the event later caught up to the vehicle and burned it.

  • Janet Angulo Parra (55): Shot in the head by National Guard soldiers in El Tocuyo, Lara in the early morning hours today. Angulo was not participating in a protest. She had approached a group of protesters allegedly to try to convince them to go home. While she was taking to the protesters, the National Guard showed up and started shooting.

I think that there's a big "calm before the storm" feeling in the air right now since we're heading into a critical time in the history of the country. The plebiscite is on Sunday, and no one's sure how that's going to play out.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
So how long has the mass famine been going on? I guess it would be from the time of long supermarket lines

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

and i must meme posted:

lol the position on jacobin from actual tankies is that they are imperialist shills
i've seen fairly moderate leftists threaten to unsubscribe because of their position on venezuela

https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/884433708752568322

read the replies to this tweet and see what i mean. i can't get my head around it

Oh look, Syrian war crimes denier Max Blumenthal shows up in the replies.

Bob le Moche
Jul 10, 2011

I AM A HORRIBLE TANKIE MORON
WHO LONGS TO SUCK CHAVISTA COCK !

I SUGGEST YOU IGNORE ANY POSTS MADE BY THIS PERSON ABOUT VENEZUELA, POLITICS, OR ANYTHING ACTUALLY !


(This title paid for by money stolen from PDVSA)
I know this is very difficult for you all to understand but please do continue paying attention to what happens in Venezuela after regime change and there's a possibility you might get it

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Maybe you should pay attention to the actual Venezuelans in this thread who remember a time when they had stuff like food, medicine, and toilet paper.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Bob le Moche posted:

I know this is very difficult for you all to understand but please do continue paying attention to what happens in Venezuela after regime change and there's a possibility you might get it

You've got a lot of gall to say this to actual loving Venezuelans.

and i must meme
Jan 15, 2017

skeleton warrior posted:

Wow, that's a bunch of white middle-class people sneering about how any criticism of the revolution makes you a fascist

Jesus I'm glad I'm not in college anymore

they see it as if jacobin is being racist or something? being dismissive of the global south? i can't really understand it.

i would imagine most of them probably only get their news on venezuela from telesur so they all have insanely warped views of the situation there. there's this idea that it's on the edge of regime change and criticism only helps the imperialists, or that things would be worse if the opposition was in power.

fnox
May 19, 2013



and i must meme posted:

they see it as if jacobin is being racist or something? being dismissive of the global south? i can't really understand it.

i would imagine most of them probably only get their news on venezuela from telesur so they all have insanely warped views of the situation there. there's this idea that it's on the edge of regime change and criticism only helps the imperialists, or that things would be worse if the opposition was in power.

You don't have to imagine, you can just browse Bob's post history and experience the insanity yourself.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Welcome back, the thread just isn't the same without a shitbag implying that criticizing Maduro is fascist. :glomp:

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
The grand battle of the 21st century is not between left and right, not between communism and fascism, it's between the poo poo and the less poo poo

Vlex
Aug 4, 2006
I'd rather be a climbing ape than a big titty angel.



curufinor posted:

The grand battle of the 21st century is not between left and right, not between communism and fascism, it's between the poo poo and the less poo poo

Waiter, this take is too spicy for me.

Unbelievably, the guy our project worked with in Puerto Ayacucho is still putting out his college "newspaper" (a poorly-formatted A4-sized .pdf), in which his "editorial" (single sentence, three paragraph screed) takes the bold stance of defending Venezuela against foreign meddling and imperialist aggression. Just don't ask him what currency we paid him in for six months work with us.

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Hugoon Chavez
Nov 4, 2011

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Bob le Moche posted:

I know this is very difficult for you all to understand but please do continue paying attention to what happens in Venezuela after regime change and there's a possibility you might get it

Dunno man, whatever happens, I'll see my mom getting medicine and food by herself instead of me sending a box from Spain every month as a net loving win.

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