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coronaball posted:How can a guy with a 13th round ADP be a bust? This is my problem dude. They're all appropriately drafted and I need to jam them into these arbitrary labels. Kevin White is the bust because lol can't stay healthy lol. Or Jordan Howard hits the sophomore wall or other bullshit I just pull out of my rear end because Chicago is a dumpster fire of insane proportions I just have to hope nobody reads this drat thing (which isn't a risk)
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Jul 13, 2017 22:46
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Like how insane is it to go deep sleeper and call for Tarik Cohen? Maybe even point out he's not draftable in shallow formats but keep an eye on him or something.
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Jul 13, 2017 22:49
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Papes posted:Sleeper: that tight end they drafted Yeah, this isn't bad. I'd swap White and Meredith because White has been "bad" due to injury, not on field performance, so I haven't given up hope yet, and Meredith is a scrub, but one or both of them should get the ball thrown at them a million times.
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Jul 13, 2017 22:55
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Spoeank posted:This is my problem dude. Why do you have to do it this way? Writing something just to give advice you don't believe is dumb. Like, is there any room for leeway? RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, this isn't bad. I'd swap White and Meredith because White has been "bad" due to injury, not on field performance, so I haven't given up hope yet, and Meredith is a scrub, but one or both of them should get the ball thrown at them a million times. Meredith has not been a scrub. Dude was one of the few bright spots on the Bears last year.  Papes posted:Sleeper: that tight end they drafted His ADP is higher than Zach Miller, who is still the starter. If anything, Miller is seriously undervalued. When healthy, he's been a mid level TE1. So four games
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Jul 13, 2017 23:01
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Sataere posted:Meredith has not been a scrub. Dude was one of the few bright spots on the Bears last year. All I'm going by is stats, because who would watch a Bears game last year, but he disappeared for so much of the season, and was not great (though not awful) for the few games where Jeffery was out and the offense was essentially just him and Howard. 15-217-1 over 4 games against NYG, Tennessee, SF, and Detroit, when he presumably faced up against CB1s. Doesn't bode super well for him being a WR1 and not having Jeffery there to draw coverage, but small sample for sure. Also, I wish I could find any summary stats about coverage, because I can imagine teams double teaming Jeffery a lot and daring anyone else to make a play, but I'm not sure that data exists in an easy to use form. For example, I'd also love to see how often Michael Thomas and Snead were facing awful defenders, and how each did when covered by better DBs.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:12
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Meredith obviously just needs Matt Barkley back under center and he'll return WR2 numbers.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:14
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Sataere posted:Why do you have to do it this way? Writing something just to give advice you don't believe is dumb. Like, is there any room for leeway? The other 31 teams are formatted that way so it would be weird to just not do it for the Bears. Sleeper definitions change. Markus Wheaton has value in a 16 team 5 WR league I'm just here to give stats man
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Jul 13, 2017 23:17
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Do an IDP guy.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:33
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I would make one of them chicago's kicker and just used the spot to riff on my situation
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Jul 13, 2017 23:40
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I guess you could make the point that White is a wasted pick and you'd be better off drafting Jonathan Williams or Hooper or a high-end kicker if you use kickers.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:43
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Spoeank posted:The other 31 teams are formatted that way so it would be weird to just not do it for the Bears. Is this my future?  All I am saying is keep the format, but only say what you believe. And don't let the format restrict you from making it your own. If mid tier players can be busts, you got plenty to choose from on that roster. It's perfectly acceptable to use the format to say honest evaluations of the Bears. Any player out performing their current ADP would make them a breakout player, but there is a large gap from the bottom to draftable.  I'm just saying he's not a scrub, not that he's good! 
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Jul 13, 2017 23:44
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Drunk Nerds posted:I would make one of them chicago's kicker and just used the spot to riff on my situation oh hell yes this poo poo is definitely happening you cracked the nut
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Jul 13, 2017 23:53
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Spoeank posted:oh hell yes this poo poo is definitely happening you cracked the nut Good. I'm a big believer in using a format to mock things. Also, the below gem is yours free of charge if you want it.  Sataere posted:Bust is your playoff hopes after you willingly draft players from the Chicago Bears to fill out your fantasy roster.
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Jul 14, 2017 00:11
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Sataere posted:
Haha I hear you, no worries. I've seen a lot of people saying they value him as a mid to late 1st rookie pick in dynasty, so wasn't sure.
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Jul 14, 2017 00:28
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RVProfootballer posted:Haha I hear you, no worries. I've seen a lot of people saying they value him as a mid to late 1st rookie pick in dynasty, so wasn't sure. I'd have to go back and look. I remember him being the only reliable receiver last year, but it does not make him good. He is young and shown flashes, so he's definitely a guy I'd consider targeting. The problem is that the preseason is my barometer for guys I'm on the fence about.
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Jul 14, 2017 00:39
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Sataere posted:His ADP is higher than Zach Miller, who is still the starter. If anything, Miller is seriously undervalued. When healthy, he's been a mid level TE1. So four games
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Jul 14, 2017 00:46
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Tiptoes posted:they also gave $10 million guaranteed to Dion Sims in free agency. Huh, good to know, I missed that entirely. I nabbed Shaheen in some TE premium dynasty leagues, but now I'm not sure I'm going to get to see much from him this year. Wasn't expecting much fantasy-wise of course, but some time on the field to evaluate real life talent would've been nice.
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Jul 14, 2017 01:12
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Tiptoes posted:I'd be careful about considering Miller an undervalued player this year. Solid the last couple years when healthy but the situation seems a lot worse now. Two bad injuries to the same foot in the last three years (broke it last year, Lisfranc in 2014) and not only did the Bears draft a tight end, but they also gave $10 million guaranteed to Dion Sims in free agency. That's "you're gonna play" money for a tight end. Even at his super cheap ADP, I don't think Miller will be worth anything. The injuries are an absolute concern, but the difference between Miller and Sims is Miller is actually a pretty good football player when healthy. He's just a great receiver for the position. I don't think anyone has ever called Sims that. And his big contract is 3 years, $18 million with $6 guaranteed. All but $1 million guaranteed this year. It's just like the Glennon contract. If he sucks, he's cut at no real cost. If he pans out, you have a nice, value contract. Shaheen is interesting. There's a lot to like about him. I would not be surprised to see him get looks in the second half of this season, but rookie tight ends struggle a ton. IfWhen Zach Miller gets injured, he could gain some value. TL;DR version - I'll believe Miller isn't the starter when he's not on the roster.
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Jul 14, 2017 01:44
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*punts Rotoworld blurb into thread*
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Jul 14, 2017 01:47
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Cervixalot posted:*punts Rotoworld blurb into thread* Nothing said there contradicts me.
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Jul 14, 2017 02:38
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Don't draft any Bears, problem solved.
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Jul 14, 2017 02:39
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Benne posted:Don't draft any Bears, problem solved. Jordan Howard says go gently caress yourself! The rest of the team agrees
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Jul 14, 2017 02:41
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Sataere posted:The injuries are an absolute concern, but the difference between Miller and Sims is Miller is actually a pretty good football player when healthy. He's just a great receiver for the position. I don't think anyone has ever called Sims that.
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Jul 14, 2017 02:46
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Tiptoes posted:Sims doesn't need to overtake Miller as the starter to ruin his value (with help from Shaheen). Even if you only consider his guaranteed money at signing, it was twice as much as the Bears gave to Miller. He'll be on the field plenty even if Miller is the nominal starter and with a second rounder in the mix too, this feels like a pretty muddled situation to me. I'm expecting his snaps and target share will take a potentially large hit. I get why you think that. I think they gave more money to Sims, but didn't commit. Miller's problem is injuries and they've taken steps to protect themselves, but I think his timeline ends next season. He's still the best player on the roster at that position. He's just unreliable. It's murky now, but if he has a strong camp, it's his job to lose.
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Jul 14, 2017 03:03
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Benne posted:Don't draft any Bears, problem solved. The Mike Glennon Express still has lots of seats available.
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Jul 14, 2017 03:12
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Lot of debate in this thread over a TE who's missed more games than he's played, has never played a full season, or ever passed 500 yards receiving, or ever catch more than 5 TD's. but basically Benne posted:Don't draft any Bears, problem solved.
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Jul 14, 2017 03:16
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 IT HAS BEGUN
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Jul 14, 2017 03:51
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VietCampo posted:Lot of debate in this thread over a TE who's missed more games than he's played, has never played a full season, or ever passed 500 yards receiving, or ever catch more than 5 TD's.
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Jul 14, 2017 04:01
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VietCampo posted:Lot of debate in this thread over a TE who's missed more games than he's played, has never played a full season, or ever passed 500 yards receiving, or ever catch more than 5 TD's. It's the offseason. I'm just pointing out from a football perspective, if he stays healthy, he's the number one TE on the Bears roster. But your post sums up why I'm not drafting him, but will keep an eye on him.
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Jul 14, 2017 04:23
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To try and make amends for continuing/enabling TE-chat, can I try and bring up a different stupid topic: Dynasty QB chat Watson is going mid-1st round in 2QB rookie drafts, back end of 1st in superflex drafts. I drafted him in my superflex startup but I held my nose doing it and did it late. I just don't get the fantasy love for him... Am I missing something here? He's coming from one of the simplest college offenses with some huge crutches (Clemson defense, offensive weapons) to one of the more complex offenses, not a great O-line, not great weapons except Hopkins. I just don't see him succeeding there... not even talking short term, I don't see him being viable even in a year or two. He'll get injured and broken before he can become the next Wilson IMHO. Then it's Mahomes and Kizer in the 2nd round who I can see being valued alright there, and Trubisky in the "oh gently caress I should probably take a QB" rounds (3/4), yet I personally could see Trubisky being worth a 2nd. And other guys like Beathard and Kaaya are undrafted but should be worth fliers depending on bench size I'd think. I mean QB is tough because of longevity, and there are plenty of young guys out there now who are performing well, but there's also plenty of older QBs who will be gone in the next few years (Big Ben, Eli, Brady, possibly Rivers, Brees, Palmer). I was expecting QBs to be valued higher overall even with the weak class, but maybe it's because next year's class looks to be much better...? Or maybe people are holding onto their Jimmy Gs and Paxton Lynchs and hoping for the best?
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Jul 14, 2017 04:31
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Amergin posted:My tight takes on tight ends The fact that you assumed this list was predictable enough that you felt compelled to post it in the first place is by far the hottest take in this thread and I fuckin applaud you for it sir fake edit: also swap Eifert, Ertz, and Rudolph with Henry, Graham, and Witten and maybe you got sumtin dere real fake edit: cook steps up early and the Raiders see the appeal of utilizing the TE, then he predictably cooks and clive tribe 2017 get in real actual edit: Spoeank posted:Final Tight End Ranks 
Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 05:05
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QB fantasy success is highly correlated with NFL pick. You can draft purely by NFL pick, rather than fantasy ADP, and do very well. If Watson is worth a mid to late 1st, Trubisky in the 3rd is a total steal, and even for a 2nd is likely undervaluing him.
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Jul 14, 2017 05:11
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Will Fuller was pretty solid whenever Brock was able to complete a pass, for what it's worth. Watson came from a simple offense with a stout defense, but he also balled out against top tier competition. He's got a decent arm. The reason he is my number one is twofold. First, dude is known for his work ethic. Second, his teammates love him.
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Jul 14, 2017 05:12
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Amergin posted:AP will average ~50 yrds/gm at ~3.2 YPC and have < 8 TDs, ending up as a fringe RB2. I honestly believe that if they use him exactly as they've indicated using him (and just let him assume Hightower's role plus a little extra if he shakes off the rust) he'll only be seeing 125-200 carries. That's 8-13 carries per game. If he's getting 800 yards (50 per game, which I don't think is inconceivable) he's averaging like 4-6.5 YPC. And if he's doing that well, he'll probably get way more inside the 30 work, and 8 TDs could easily be 14 if everyone is expecting Brees to pass and he's a decoy outside of goalline packages The one thing that I don't do is count out Adrian Peterson, and there were enough factors the last two years that prevent me from calling this a trend. It's the inverse logic train as to why I discounted Charles last year: that we take for granted recovery because guys like Peterson and Charles can still be effective (and really good because Charles was really good both before and after the first surgery as well) but we ignore that Peterson is a freak of nature, and these advanced recovery abilities and time tables aren't proportional to football skill. "Jamaal Charles survived one ACL injury and was dope for a long time, but wear and tear, especially compounded with that injury, will catch up" is a different sentiment than "I think Adrian Peterson was designed by whatever the opposite of whatever the organizers of the Munich Olympics were on about" If he's getting 50 ypg, I legitimately think that's a 165-175 point season, which would've squarely put him as RB22-24 in ppr last year (his value obviously gets a bump in standard no matter where you rank him). So I really think the take here is that you (and I) think Peterson has fringe RB2 floor which should make him at least a matchup Flex play/backup RB which is still pretty gat dang off the consensus from what I've seen. I also haven't read anything between your post from three pages ago and my post now, but I'm willing to bet the Peterson confidence is not at an all time high Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 05:37
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I honestly believe that if they use him exactly as they've indicated using him (and just let him assume Hightower's role plus a little extra if he shakes off the rust) he'll only be seeing 125-200 carries. That's 8-13 carries per game. I agree with all of this.
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Jul 14, 2017 05:46
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I'm just gonna keep responding to things as I read them in real time from 80 posts ago like an rear end but Tiptoes posted:Again, Rodgers averaged 2 targets a game when Cook was active last year. Finley only played in six games in 2013 so no surprise the Quarless' numbers from 16 games look similar. And who gives a poo poo about what numbers Andrew Quarless and a rookie Richard Rodgers put up? So I'm not seeing any consistent splits here. They've just had lovely TEs since losing Finley. Yeah but if you look at those looks you'll see that the Packers suffer from the same fate as the Eagles where everyone conflates Those 1.5 Seasons Of Brent Celek with a philosophy, and chases the usage dragon. Bennett being the most talented TE they've had doesn't necessarily turn "we appreciate how having the option to attack the middle" suddenly turns into "We're going to legitimately try to use the TE" It's the same reason why I am down on Kelce at his ADP: offense caps usage which trumps talent. Then again, Bennett is talented enough to turn 75-90 Rodgers targets into 65-80 catches and then the only really difference between him and Kelce is ADP and their offense holy poo poo I think I just talked myself around on this one WHERE IS BENNETT GETTING DRAFTED? Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 05:56
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I'm just gonna keep responding to things as I read then in real time from 80 posts ago like an rear end but The chiefs cut their only good wide receiver and you think Kelce's usage is capped?
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Jul 14, 2017 06:01
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Let's not get into the Alex Smith Can't Throw Seam Routes So All Those Extra Targets Are Going To Be Split 65/35 Between RBs And Kelce Inside Of 12 Yards And Under Triple Coverage argument again it's late and I'm out of weed
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Jul 14, 2017 06:04
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The Too drat High meme, but it's your projections for Martellus Bennett
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Jul 14, 2017 06:08
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Benne posted:Don't draft any Bears, problem solved. I say this about Vikings every year and no one listens  RVProfootballer posted:The Too drat High meme, but it's your projections for Martellus Bennett 65-80 catches is like 650-950 yards and 6-9(+ with Rodgers??) scores when comparing Bennett's career numbers, and those Packers TE stats show that their TEs will see ~95 targets, and if they have a legit TE1, he can expect like 85% of that target share. What about Bennett's talent, quarterback, or complementary weapons, make you think he can't turn 75 targets (85% of 90 total TE targets) into 157 points (60 catches for 670 yards and 5 TDs, aka his average the last 5 years with 4 of those getting the ball from Eli and Cutler), which would've made him TE11 last year. Obviously matching Kelce's numbers is hyperbole unless the Packers actually really do use the TE (lol) but at whatever he's going, I'll take a TE10 floor over spending a top-60 pick on a TE 105 out of 100 times especially when Alex Smith is throwing one of them the ball capping his ceiling from locked and loaded TE1 to "just another good TE you will draft too high at the expense of the rest of your team" goddamn I thought we weren't talking about this e: I'd also rather bank on the equally hypothetical "Rodgers makes Bennett a TE1" than "Kelce overcomes lack of outside threats, and a QB incapable of attacking safeties, into a season any better than the one he just had, which would've made him TE4 in a normal year and he'll also be going in the goddamn 4th round" Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Jul 14, 2017 |
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Jul 14, 2017 06:22
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