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Trump is the white obama
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Jul 17, 2017 17:13
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BarbarianElephant posted:Did it ever work that way? I used to think that, too (when I was very young) and I assume someone must have told me that. Perhaps it worked that way in the past. Nope
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Jul 17, 2017 17:13
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lol, Trump is thinking about backing a primary challenge against Flake in Arizona. If he actually gets him primaried by a crazy person, then the Dem's slim hopes of taking the Senate might jump from like 1% up to 2 or 3% http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/playbook-jeff-flake-donald-trump-election-240616
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Jul 17, 2017 17:14
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Trump Admin: "Okay, we need to get all 50 remaining R Senators on board to pass this health care bill. We can't afford to alienate a single one of them. What should we do? I know!" https://twitter.com/politico/status/886964971359412226
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Jul 17, 2017 17:15
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DaveWoo posted:There's an interesting anecdote in that article, which suggests that Trump's disapproval rating should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt: "Independent" All these approval gaps in red states are going to evaporate in 2019 when the Democrat running has a name and a face.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:16
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TheScott2K posted:"Independent" If that name and face is not literally Hillary Clinton, then the gap will only be reduced, not evaporate.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:19
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axeil posted:People are horrifically bad at long-term thinking and planning, especially when you throw in numbers. You can offer someone $500 now or $25/week in perpetuity and a whole shitload of people will take the first. It's an issue with general innumeracy in our society and how we educate people on math. Part of the problem is we've allowed people to cop out with the "I'm not a numbers guy/girl, I'm not good at math, etc." excuse. No one is innately good at stuff, you have to practice a ton to get good at it. You don't see people giving the sorts of excuses we see with math about say, reading/writing. True. You'd think they'd begin to take notice though of, say, a company like Netflix that charges like 12 bucks a month to millions of people and effectively demonstrates what a collective pool can do. lovely example maybe - equating an entertainment division to an insurance company - but it effectively works out the same. One family binge watches Netflix every night, another recently divorced guy just watches a few series here and there and another stay at home mom runs SuperWhy or Curious George for their kid all day long, but it all evens out and the company doesn't care because of the sheer volume of subscribers so they're able to offer the same service to everyone for the same low cost, regardless of use. If I watch 2 or 3 movies a month on Netflix, it's worth it to me right there. If a family of 5 watches 8 hours a day of it they pay the same cost and get even more value but obviously having so many loving subscribers is what makes the business model effective.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:19
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BarbarianElephant posted:Did it ever work that way? I used to think that, too (when I was very young) and I assume someone must have told me that. Perhaps it worked that way in the past. With respect to the brackets, no. It is technically possible for this to happen given some unlikely circumstances and poorly designed tax credits that phase out too rapidly (that is, you get abruptly cut off at some kind of income threshold rather than the benefit gradually reducing as you earn more). This is more of a unicorn thing (like a full time college student also earning way north of median household income) than a serious problem. If someone tells you their salary went up and they netted less because of taxes, they're probably wrong about something.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:21
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DaveWoo posted:Trump Admin: "Okay, we need to get all 50 remaining R Senators on board to pass this health care bill. We can't afford to alienate a single one of them. What should we do? I know!" But how many Republicans have actually turned on Trump when he's put the pressure on them?
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Jul 17, 2017 17:21
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Mustached Demon posted:Like Al Gore? Oh wait. It's depressing how this keeps happening. Al Gore didn't want to cheat with the tapes. George and Jeb! stole the election. Remember when Reagan's campaign manager was given the President's (Carter) stolen debate prep? But oh there I go again.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:23
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Fitzy Fitz posted:But how many Republicans have actually turned on Trump when he's put the pressure on them? He lost AHCA votes after a meeting with them to get more votes so... maybe a few?
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Jul 17, 2017 17:23
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DaveWoo posted:DRAIN THE SWAMP! DRAIN THE SWAMP! DRAIN THE oh that's just politics "that's just politics", is a dogwhistle for "their guys do it, so you have to stomach us doing it if you want to win!"
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Jul 17, 2017 17:24
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BarbarianElephant posted:Did it ever work that way? I used to think that, too (when I was very young) and I assume someone must have told me that. Perhaps it worked that way in the past. It never did for normal taxes. But in a hosed it way if you instead base it on total benefits received it happens today. If you don't make much money it absolutely can happen that making an extra $1 will result in you being worse off by losing access to benefits like Medicaid, SNAP, housing vouchers, etc.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:24
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Prester Jane posted:That isn't what drug courts are or what drug courts do. I know quite a few people who are walking around free and clean instead of being incarcerated because of drug courts. Drug courts work pretty hard to avoid incarceration and usually use the threat of incarceration to compel attendance in a rehab program. You usually have to screw up pretty bad (I've seen relapses forgiven) several times in order to wind up in prison through a drug court. I suspect this is something that depends on the particular court and the particular judges. One *potential* problem you run into with systems like this is that judges often have a "I have a hammer, and everything looks like a nail" issue: they end ip just incarcerating, because that's what they know how to do. It might work a lot better in some areas than others depending on the availability of local services.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:26
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DaveWoo posted:Trump Admin: "Okay, we need to get all 50 remaining R Senators on board to pass this health care bill. We can't afford to alienate a single one of them. What should we do? I know!" How competitive would an Arizona Senate seat be if a wing nut beat Flake or McCain in a primary?
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Jul 17, 2017 17:27
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DaveWoo posted:Trump Admin: "Okay, we need to get all 50 remaining R Senators on board to pass this health care bill. We can't afford to alienate a single one of them. What should we do? I know!"
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Jul 17, 2017 17:30
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funkymonks posted:How competitive would an Arizona Senate seat be if a wing nut beat Flake or McCain in a primary? The MAGA robot crazyman would still be favored because its Arizona. But its not Alabama or Wyoming, so the race would still be close-ish and interesting. Arizona is on the list of red states along with Texas and Georgia that might flip someday because of rapidly-changing demographics.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:32
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funkymonks posted:How competitive would an Arizona Senate seat be if a wing nut beat Flake or McCain in a primary? It always confuses me that Arizona isn't consistently pumping out Cruzes and Lees. It's the state that affluent old Republicans who have no reason to give a poo poo about anyone else and are terrified of Mexicans specifically choose to congregate at.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:34
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SgtScruffy posted:There's that Michael Moore video in which he says that the reason so many people want(ed) Trump to win was because he was a hand grenade thrown into politics. The system was broken, it screwed over the little guy, and they knew Trump would be terrible and gently caress everything up, and that's exactly why they voted him in. They didn't want even a Cruz or someone who represented their beliefs to be voted in, they wanted the guy to come in and just ruin everything because gently caress you, the system crashed the banks and is only self-serving. Basically this was the "acquit OJ as a punishment to the LAPD" equivalent except it was to the entire American Political System. Anecdotal, but I've never met a Trump voter who believed this. In my experience they all voted for him because he was an Outsider and thought maybe Government Should Be Run Like a Business. To this day they think he's doing an excellent job. Their metric? How pissed off the Democrats and the left are. It isn't any more complicated than that. They voted for a Triggerer-in-chief, a human meme, and he delivers.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:35
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Flip Yr Wig posted:It always confuses me that Arizona isn't consistently pumping out Cruzes and Lees. It's the state that affluent old Republicans who have no reason to give a poo poo about anyone else and are terrified of Mexicans specifically choose to congregate at. Western Republicans tend to be more Libertarian than their idiot teammates in the south and midwest
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Jul 17, 2017 17:35
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Rigel posted:Trump's disapproval in Iowa has jumped a lot and a majority of Iowans now disapprove. 'Approval' doesn't mean much when millions of people who disapprove of Trump are still going to vote straight ticket R in 2018 and 2020 because it's Their Team and that matters more than the fact that their team wants to destroy them while the other team wants to work for their benefit.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:36
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Grammarchist posted:I'm actually curious how a hypothetical Single Payer Law would have gone over the eight years of GOP sabotage that followed. The ACA alone had to survive two Supreme Court challenges, arguably only limping through because insurance companies and hospitals had a stake in challenging the GOP's suits against it. Having single payer enacted and then overturned or broken right after congress swings right and makes further reform impossible was a real possibility that could have left us even worse off. Obama hosed up by thinking that the GOP and Blue Dogs would work with him if he appeared reasonable so he started with what he thought he could ultimately get instead of asking for the moon and working backwards through concessions and compromises. He did this a lot actually (STARTED with the compromise position) and in this sense, Trump was right about him being a weak negotiator. He was very naive until about halfway through his presidency and it consistently worked to his detriment. Republicans saw a wildly charismatic, popular black guy with a funny name get elected against a white war hero, were instantly terrified, and probably rightfully assumed that if he'd succeeded at anything at all it'd be the death knell for their party so they took the stance from day one that He Must Fail. They and their pundits are on record regarding this. I sometimes wonder what would happen if Democrats figured out a way to propose and pass meaningful progressive legislation and just let Republicans take credit for it somehow. Let McConnell or someone get in front of the cameras and bask in the accolades. I honestly think that might almost work except that the ship has sailed and decades of pundits and preachers calling Democrats socialists, atheists and commies has taken such firm root.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:37
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Deified Data posted:Anecdotal, but I've never met a Trump voter who believed this. In my experience they all voted for him because he was an Outsider and thought maybe Government Should Be Run Like a Business. To this day they think he's doing an excellent job. This sounds like you are describing T_D. I think Mark Blyth really explains it best why Trump won. The two parties were not serving the middle class and this hand grenade was the only option they had. (President) Clinton, Bush and Obama certainly did not change things up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWMmBG3Z4DI
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Jul 17, 2017 17:39
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WampaLord posted:And again, that only solves half of my problem. I still don't have healthcare. But at least you now have legal medical weed! You just cant smoke it.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:40
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Enigma89 posted:This sounds like you are describing T_D. Except most people who voted for him were well off whites. The white working class/rurals by and large don't vote.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:40
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DaveWoo posted:There's an interesting anecdote in that article, which suggests that Trump's disapproval rating should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt: Oh yes. It's the "guy I'd have a beer with" all over again. People are dumb, and they are self-inserting into the presidency because they'd probably gently caress it up too. They really identify with the guy who was born a millionaire and lives in a gold penthouse. He's genuine.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:41
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DaveWoo posted:Trump Admin: "Okay, we need to get all 50 remaining R Senators on board to pass this health care bill. We can't afford to alienate a single one of them. What should we do? I know!" This is good for us since if Trump keeps trying to primary establishment GOP critters suddenly this Russia thing will be seen as a Grave Threat That We Need To Take Care Of
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Jul 17, 2017 17:42
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Peven Stan posted:Except most people who voted for him were well off whites. They don't want to vote for the same policies after being failed by both parties since the 90s? Watch the video please. I really found it interesting and Blyth makes a lot of sense IMO.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:42
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Democrats say overestimate how much respectable white people care about bigotry too. If by and large most whites won't even cut out contact with racist uncles etc. what makes them think that they won't vote for an open racist, especially if it means a tax cut for them?Enigma89 posted:They don't want to vote for the same policies after being failed by both parties since the 90s? Watch the video. Hard to say they were being failed when the average trump voter makes 70k a year and lives in a rich suburb. I prefer to not watch bullshit videos on economics and politics unlike most right wing white males.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:43
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Peven Stan posted:Democrats say overestimate how much respectable white people care about bigotry too. If by and large most whites won't even cut out contact with racist uncles etc. what makes them think that they won't vote for an open racist, especially if it means a tax cut for them? How do you explain Obama getting elected then? He must have lost with all of these secret racists around. Again, looking at who doesn't votes is as important as who votes. Clinton wasn't really offering much and people stayed home.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:45
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Was approached by a lawyer buddy of mine to run for a position on next years ballot for local democratic chair... apparently they are trying to challenge democrats that have been complacent in our county and adding a wave of more progressive members to the party ranks. It's a crap shoot but apparently some of the city elected officials have been frustrated and in not so many words have been looking to shake things up. Welp I've been looking for a way to tell my daughter I am trying my best for her... this might be it 
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Jul 17, 2017 17:47
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Peven Stan posted:I prefer to not watch bullshit videos on economics and politics unlike most right wing white males. This "bullshit video" is from the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, AKA Brown University... If you don't want to watch it then go for it, but it's not bullshit.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:47
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Rigel posted:I have no idea. I followed the conversation fine, but I thought you were Riek. 
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Jul 17, 2017 17:47
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Enigma89 posted:How do you explain Obama getting elected then? He must have lost with all of these secret racists around. You answered your own question. Obama won the same share of the white vote as Clinton and Kerry before him. It was youth and minorities who put him over the top. Clinton thought they could poach moderate republicans due to trumps bigotry and they were absolutely wrong.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:48
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Spiffster posted:Was approached by a lawyer buddy of mine to run for a position on next years ballot for local democratic chair... apparently they are trying to challenge democrats that have been complacent in our county and adding a wave of more progressive members to the party ranks. It's a crap shoot but apparently some of the city elected officials have been frustrated and in not so many words have been looking to shake things up. Go for it! We all know that "being a politician" can't be as hard as it looks, given the numpties that have achieved high office.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:50
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gonna get a neato pic of trump pretend zooming in a speedboat soon https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/886991582389571584
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Jul 17, 2017 17:51
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Peven Stan posted:Except most people who voted for him were well off whites. This was an almost immediate reaction, and Blythe worked it into his larger theory of the failure of the ruling class etc. while there's salient points to be made there, they didn't have the raw data yet.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:52
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Rigel posted:Western Republicans tend to be more Libertarian than their idiot teammates in the south and midwest
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Jul 17, 2017 17:54
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Peven Stan posted:Hard to say they were being failed when the average trump voter makes 70k a year and lives in a rich suburb. You're not very familiar with Blythe, huh?
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Jul 17, 2017 17:54
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BarbarianElephant posted:Go for it! We all know that "being a politician" can't be as hard as it looks, given the numpties that have achieved high office. I'll find out fast enough. I have to run an inquiry through my works ethics office then file with the state if approved. I can post updates of the progress if I do happen to get the spot.
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Jul 17, 2017 17:54
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