Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Good god if that's what Brian Dumoulin gets, what are they going to pay Sheary?
Don't get me wrong, I love me some Dumoulin but the dude is basically David Schlemko - there's no need to be throwing those dollars and term at him.

e: Also that leaves ~6m to sign Sheary and find a 3c so either we're going into this season without one (we have zero internal replacements... I think maybe Rust used to play center? Or Guentzel but why split him from Crosby) or someone is on the move to make room for one.

I imagine Sheary will also get 4 million or so. The 3c they'll have to get via trade I guess and I have no idea what roster player they'd move to do that.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

Shiiiit I'd take Dumoulin over Alzner at that price.

Benson Cunningham
Dec 9, 2006

Chief of J.U.N.K.E.R. H.Q.
I don't understand hockey salary anymore in an era where Sheary and Dumoulin are both going to get 4m+.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Benson Cunningham posted:

I don't understand hockey salary anymore in an era where Sheary and Dumoulin are both going to get 4m+.

Sheary put up 53 points which is a lot of points in this day and age. What exactly do you think he should be getting?

I know Crosby bump blah blah but 50+ points is gonna get you paid no matter who you're playing with.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
The Oduya signing is good, $1mil is whatever and it hopefully stops them from rushing Chabot into the lineup.

Just hope he's not pencilled in to play with Karlsson

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."
Nashville re-signed Austin Watson for 3 years, $1.1m AAV, which is probably fine I guess.

Benson Cunningham
Dec 9, 2006

Chief of J.U.N.K.E.R. H.Q.

Ginette Reno posted:

Sheary put up 53 points which is a lot of points in this day and age. What exactly do you think he should be getting?

I know Crosby bump blah blah but 50+ points is gonna get you paid no matter who you're playing with.


I think my issue is more conceptual than specific to Sheary and Dumoulin. When I started watching hockey the salary cap was ~60 million dollars. Now it's 25% higher than that, but I have a dated mentality of what kind of contract a player should expect.

Entry level contracts are dirt cheap too. In the modern era, I wonder if a team can even make a SCF run without the benefit of 2-5 rookies carrying the load. Take Jake Guentzel out of the equation and the Penguins don't win in 2017. In 2016, Sheary had 10 points in the playoffs that year, and Matt Murray did what he did for 628k a year. Matta was huge in 2016 and cost a scant 894k.

So if Sheary gets bumped from 575k -> 4 million, it is what it is, but once again the Penguins become reliant on talented rookies fitting into the line up to make up scoring deficits from the vets who can't fit in under the cap anymore. But maybe that's just the nhl now, and if you don't have NHL ready rookies, you can't expect to win when it matters.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Benson Cunningham posted:

I don't understand hockey salary anymore in an era where Sheary and Dumoulin are both going to get 4m+.

Sheary scored 53 points in 61 games. This was a big breakout year for him but even if he's really only a 40-50 point player over a full 82 games, 4-5M is a reasonable deal.

I don't know poo poo about Dumoulin but 4M seems fine if he's a reliable second pairing guy?

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Benson Cunningham posted:

I think my issue is more conceptual than specific to Sheary and Dumoulin. When I started watching hockey the salary cap was ~60 million dollars. Now it's 25% higher than that, but I have a dated mentality of what kind of contract a player should expect.

Entry level contracts are dirt cheap too. In the modern era, I wonder if a team can even make a SCF run without the benefit of 2-5 rookies carrying the load. Take Jake Guentzel out of the equation and the Penguins don't win in 2017. In 2016, Sheary had 10 points in the playoffs that year, and Matt Murray did what he did for 628k a year. Matta was huge in 2016 and cost a scant 894k.

So if Sheary gets bumped from 575k -> 4 million, it is what it is, but once again the Penguins become reliant on talented rookies fitting into the line up to make up scoring deficits from the vets who can't fit in under the cap anymore. But maybe that's just the nhl now, and if you don't have NHL ready rookies, you can't expect to win when it matters.

Luckily they have two more years of Guentzel at that price.

I think they get Sheary for less than 4 but he doesn't get the term. The playoffs really hurt Sheary.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Benson Cunningham posted:

I think my issue is more conceptual than specific to Sheary and Dumoulin. When I started watching hockey the salary cap was ~60 million dollars. Now it's 25% higher than that, but I have a dated mentality of what kind of contract a player should expect.

I think this is true for a lot of people, myself included. It doesn't feel like that long ago that Drury got over 7m a year, and that was a lot.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Jordan7hm posted:

Luckily they have two more years of Guentzel at that price.

I think they get Sheary for less than 4 but he doesn't get the term. The playoffs really hurt Sheary.

If I'm Sheary I probably want term moreso than AAV. He's a tiny dwarf man and who knows how long his game can hold up in the NHL.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

If I'm Sheary I probably want term moreso than AAV. He's a tiny dwarf man and who knows how long his game can hold up in the NHL.

Sure. But I see no reason why the Pens should give him term. He's tiny, has demonstrated an inability to play full pro seasons (its early though), and his playoffs made it look like he's a product of Crosby. He might be the real deal but they lose nothing by forcing him to arbitration. That 7x4.5 deal will probably still be there for them next year if it turns out he can reproduce his regular season. He's still gonna be an RFA.

Zodijackylite
Oct 18, 2005

hello bonjour, en francais we call the bread man l'homme de pain, because pain means bread and we're going to see a lot of pain this year and every nyrfan is looking forward to it and hey tony, can you wait until after my postgame interview to get on your phone? i thought you quit twitter...

Benson Cunningham posted:

I think my issue is more conceptual than specific to Sheary and Dumoulin. When I started watching hockey the salary cap was ~60 million dollars. Now it's 25% higher than that, but I have a dated mentality of what kind of contract a player should expect.

The time/age at which players get a "big" contract also changed. From 2006 to 2009, the cap was increasing by 10%+ per year - teams were throwing around big money to UFAs in hopes of landing the big piece they needed, building a stacked top six, while the bottom six were an afterthought, often bogged down by enforcers and checkers who couldn't play hockey at an NHL level. Some big changes occured:

-NHL hockey got faster and ice time got distributed more, there's few forwards playing <8m or >20m per night.
-Fancystats and deployments (and concussions) made people realize that punchmen sucked
-Rosters got filled deeper with faster, younger players as a result.

Teams who built with UFAs (age 27-30+) failed time and time again and long contracts became anchors when players were in their mid-late 30s. Teams aren't going to give them, players aren't going to hope for them, especially now that the cap only grows by ~2% per year. Instead, teams are signing the better half of the middle of their roster to longer deals when they are younger, locking them up from around age 24-30.

Evaluation of the middle of the roster has also changed a lot. It's way more than points or Corsi. You can't/shouldn't compare Dumoulin to Girardi based on points. From what I've heard, Dumoulin's ability is best measured in his ability to suppress shots and prevent zone entries against - this equips him to play the hard situations, contrasting Justin Schultz, who puts up huge offensive numbers by playing in the easier situations.

Benson Cunningham
Dec 9, 2006

Chief of J.U.N.K.E.R. H.Q.

Zodijackylite posted:


Evaluation of the middle of the roster has also changed a lot. It's way more than points or Corsi. You can't/shouldn't compare Dumoulin to Girardi based on points. From what I've heard, Dumoulin's ability is best measured in his ability to suppress shots and prevent zone entries against - this equips him to play the hard situations, contrasting Justin Schultz, who puts up huge offensive numbers by playing in the easier situations.

I was hoping Vegas would take this idea to its logical conclusion and try to be competitive from day 1 using a team consisting fully of 2nd/3rd line talent. The idea being, fill your roster with average or only slightly above average players and give them equal minutes. Rather than relying on your top 2 lines to put up 60-80% of your points, you spread that burden out equally across the entire roster (both in raw numbers of G/As and minutes).

I know at the very top end of talent there is no comparison between a Karlsson and a Gostisbehere, but it also centralizes risk. If Karlsson get injured, the Senators don't win the cup. If Gostisbehere gets injured, the net loss is much lower. Without hiring superstars (outside the goalie position), you can pretty much guarantee your average guy is going to be better than your opponent's average guy.

It'd be interesting to do an analysis and see what the theoretical total points are you could fit on a team based on salary, projected goals per minute, and projected time on ice.


Edit: It turns out that Sheary was 7th overall this past season in points per minutes for all forwards. It's absurd how many Penguins are in the top 25. (pop image out into its own tab if you want to be able to read it)

Benson Cunningham fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Jul 24, 2017

Oswald Kesselpot
Jan 14, 2008

HONK HONK HONK

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Good god if that's what Brian Dumoulin gets, what are they going to pay Sheary?
Don't get me wrong, I love me some Dumoulin but the dude is basically David Schlemko - there's no need to be throwing those dollars and term at him.

e: Also that leaves ~6m to sign Sheary and find a 3c so either we're going into this season without one (we have zero internal replacements... I think maybe Rust used to play center? Or Guentzel but why split him from Crosby) or someone is on the move to make room for one.
I don't think Dumpling getting 4.1 is that much of an overpayment. Yeah I'd prefer they got him much closer to 3, but at the end of the day is it worth losing one of your better defenseman over less than a million dollars? Not much out there to replace him with, and I don't think the pens can really afford for their blue line to get much worse, especially with Letang's injury proneness.

I think the pens have made it clear they want to trade for another center, but I have zero idea who they might be targeting. Sadly I'd not be shocked to see them start the season with out a clearly defined 3C, and just play whatever center golfs with !
Mario in the hopes someone steps up, that they acquire one later, or maybe even finding one hiding in Ryam Reaves stick bag when he shows up to camp.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Right down to the wire.

https://twitter.com/JimCerny/status/889861542958825472

I'm fine with this.

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



That's almost Brooks Orpik money!

Yes I will be making this statement every time a similar contract is signed

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Mind_Taker posted:

That's almost Brooks Orpik money!

Yes I will be making this statement every time a similar contract is signed

It's not much more than Nick Bonino money.

boy is Nashville gonna regret that contract

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Ginette Reno posted:

boy is Nashville gonna regret that contract

Bonino still makes less than Sutter somehow.

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

Ginette Reno posted:

It's not much more than Nick Bonino money.

boy is Nashville gonna regret that contract

Once Johansen gets signed, they at least don't have any RFAs getting majorly paid for a few years, and then Rinne's contract ends. But yeah, Summer 2019 it might start being annoying.

Jovial Cow
Sep 7, 2006

inherently good



Interesting. Well I'm glad arbitration was avoided at least. Still curious what we're doing for centers come season start.

Krime
Jul 30, 2003

Somebody has to do the scoring around here.

Jovial Cow posted:

Interesting. Well I'm glad arbitration was avoided at least. Still curious what we're doing for centers come season start.

Bottom 6 Centers here... No idea

My guess is Cullen comes back for one last last last season.

That leaves the 3C position wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIČRE IN ME

Jovial Cow posted:

Interesting. Well I'm glad arbitration was avoided at least. Still curious what we're doing for centers come season start.

seems OK

IMO I think they are banking on Zibanejad taking over for Stepan (pretty sure he can put up 55 points and his fancies are good as I recall so he should be able to handle the minutes), it's the 2C spot that worries me since I'm not sure that Hayes can put up close to 50 points again playing harder minutes and his fancies were terrible last season even though he put up a career point high.

So, we'll see, might be some trade movement now that Zibanejad is signed

Scylla
Sep 20, 2001

Renaud Lavoie‏ @renlavoietva

Mark Streit is coming back in Montreal. Signed a one year deal at $700 000 #tvasports

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007


Uhhhh

Suspicious
Apr 30, 2005
You know he's the villain, because he's got shifty eyes.

Scylla posted:

Renaud Lavoie‏ @renlavoietva

Mark Streit is coming back in Montreal. Signed a one year deal at $700 000 #tvasports

Post/avatar combo.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Here's a story about Jason Stypinski, former ECHL player and current CBJ equipment manager.

https://twitter.com/971thefan/status/889858651875311616

This stuff is endlessly entertaining to me after reading Chill Factor. Some of the fun tidbits include:

quote:

Jason Stypinski, for instance, is the man responsible for an ECHL rule against equipment staffers modifying jerseys. He had sewn inserts into the sweater of the Columbus Chill’s enforcer, successfully allowing more freedom of movement and bigger punches.

In his defense, he only did this after Toledo’s tough guy had sent the Chill a Christmas card containing Yuletide greetings, and an invitation to the Chill’s fighter. “You wanna go?”

quote:

“Whew,” he breathed. “This is one of the best coaching staffs I’ve ever worked, for. I’ve never seen a coach more dialed in than John Tortorella. He sees things coming.”

He pointed out that Tortorella treats the equipment staff the same way he does the players, insisting they take a break when necessary, once even threatening to fine Stypinski if he didn’t catch a day off.

...and a thing about being an emergency goaltender in the ECHL.

DJExile
Jun 28, 2007


Oh my god I remember that story about the Christmas card. Christ the storm were fun

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

Benson Cunningham posted:


Entry level contracts are dirt cheap too. In the modern era, I wonder if a team can even make a SCF run without the benefit of 2-5 rookies carrying the load.

The Sharks did it in 2016 with a mostly veteran lineup, full of hockey middle-agers and/or soon to be pensioners. Donskoi and Hertl were the two kids who provided a bit of backup in the playoffs but most of the offense came from far older skaters.

So it's possible!

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Ligur posted:

The Sharks did it in 2016 with a mostly veteran lineup, full of hockey middle-agers and/or soon to be pensioners. Donskoi and Hertl were the two kids who provided a bit of backup in the playoffs but most of the offense came from far older skaters.

So it's possible!

The Canucks had two players on an ELC in the playoffs 2011. Hodgson and Tanev who played 12 and 5 games respectively. That was just a well constructed team.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax
This is the dog days NHL post-season of being bored to death zombie carcass, so let's compare the teams that made it to SCF vis a vis veterans and young RFA's and players with entry level contracts after 2010.

Kings and Sharks for example had pretty veteran squads iirc.

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007


Who will Marc Bergevin sign next: Tom Kostopoulous or Brian Smolinski?

Zodijackylite
Oct 18, 2005

hello bonjour, en francais we call the bread man l'homme de pain, because pain means bread and we're going to see a lot of pain this year and every nyrfan is looking forward to it and hey tony, can you wait until after my postgame interview to get on your phone? i thought you quit twitter...

Jovial Cow posted:

Interesting. Well I'm glad arbitration was avoided at least. Still curious what we're doing for centers come season start.

Looks like they're going to be leaving the spot open to be won in training camp. The candidates are:

THE REAL CANDIDATES:

Lias Andersson (age 18, 19 on October 13)
7th overall, 2017. One year pro experience in Sweden.
Impressed at rookie camp. Looks like they're giving him a shot to make the NHL, else he returns to Sweden for another year.

Adam Tambellini (age 22)
65th overall, 2013. Two years AHL experience.
Tall and lanky, struggled to put on weight in the past. Stands 6-4 and 195lbs, about the same size as Artem Anisimov. The Rangers scouting report on him notes his great speed and vision. Great in the shootout in the AHL. Doesn't put up huge point totals, but he might be the type of offensively-inclined depth player that is important in the league today.

Cristoval "Boo" Nieves (age 23)
59th overall, 2012. 48 games AHL experience, one game NHL experience.
Earned an early callup last year, his rookie AHL season, but missed half the season due to injury. Looked "alright" in his NHL debut, but he played four games in five nights and flew across the country for that game. When he was drafted, scouts described him as "one of the fastest players on the ice at any given time" but criticized "his obvious lack of physical size." He's 6-3 219lbs now.

THE ALTERNATIVES:

JT Miller (age 24)
2nd overall in AV's 'favorite players with "Tanner" in their name, 2014-17.'
Played his best hockey at wing. He's only really an option at center if another player finds chemistry in his spot. However, this becomes a lot more flexible if Buchnevich steps up this year.

A UFA signing? (probably too old)
The pickings are thin, but nobody would have expected Brandon Pirri to start the season as the Rangers 4C. UFA options for depth forwards include Daniel Winnik and Alex Chiasson, both more than capable of a regular bottom six shift, and both wingers for most of their career who have played short stretches at center. Now that everyone is signed, I expect the Rangers to grab one more veteran player to compete for Matt Puempel's spot out of camp.

THE 2017 HARTFORD WOLF PACK

Gabriel Fontaine (age 20)
171st overall, 2016. No professional experience.
Drafted as an overager. Praised for his hockey sense and ability to play as a shutdown center in juniors. Sounds like a depth guy who will get some experience in the AHL this year.

Vinni Lettieri (age 22)
College UFA. Nine games AHL experience.
U. of Minnesota alumni. Undersized, emerged to score 37p/38g his senior year. Scored one point, an assist, in nine games in Hartford. Probably AHL-bound for now.

Daniel Catenacci (age 24)
77th overall, 2011. Four years experience in the AHL, 11 games NHL experience.
Looked ready to bust out of the Sabres system, but put up nine points in 19 games in Hartford last year, earning him a two-way contract. He's undersized (5'9") and a long shot to make the NHL. Likely destined for the AHL.

Steven Fogarty (age 24)
72nd overall, 2011. One year AHL experience.
Notre Dame alumni. Big. Right-handed shot. Career high of 23 points his senior year in college, good for seventh on his team. 20 points in the AHL last year. Probably a solid third-liner in the AHL.

Playing in Europe: Filip Chytil, Dominik Lakatos, Patrik Virta

Suspicious
Apr 30, 2005
You know he's the villain, because he's got shifty eyes.

Stiev Awt posted:

Who will Marc Bergevin sign next: Tom Kostopoulous or Brian Smolinski?

I just had a crazy, way out there idea: he could sign Markov. I hear he used to play for Montreal.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Stiev Awt posted:

Who will Marc Bergevin sign next: Tom Kostopoulous or Brian Smolinski?

Smoke is probably still a better 4c than whatever the Canadiens will end up going with

Mage_Boy
Dec 18, 2003

This hotdog is about as real as your story Steve Simmons




Stiev Awt posted:

Who will Marc Bergevin sign next: Tom Kostopoulous or Brian Smolinski?

Tom Kostopoulous is signed to the WBS Pens and is their captain, so that should make it a little easier.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I hope Boo makes it.

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007


Suspicious posted:

I just had a crazy, way out there idea: he could sign Markov. I hear he used to play for Montreal.

too old

Ginette Reno posted:

Smoke is probably still a better 4c than whatever the Canadiens will end up going with

*visions of froese and holland dance across his mind* hmmmm yeah

DJExile
Jun 28, 2007


https://twitter.com/CudmoreColin/status/889915342872600576

here's a neat thing fits found

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Cocaine Bear
Nov 4, 2011

ACAB

Please don't remind me that Nill gave NMCs to everyone loving dude he signed this offseason.

  • Locked thread