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https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/890657105228701696 Do it man, do it, kick that football. 
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Jul 27, 2017 20:38
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So, I keep thinking about the doom and gloom of the senate map for 2018 - the Dems are defending so many seats. But, the thing is, the reason they are defending so many is because those are seats that they won in 2012. Which means each Senate Democrat is sitting in a winnable seat - it was won literally the very last time it was contested. Dems in 2018 are likely to be energized, and demographic movement continues to favor the Democrats even if it didn't result in Auto-Prez-2016 like we assumed. Are the dems really in that much danger of losing senate seats in 2018? If Heller votes for this he's done (probably done anyways). Is there any possibility of Collins or Murkowski switching parties? I really want Dems to take control in 2018.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:38
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Maybe Ryan is doing this on purpose. After all, if the bill dies in the Senate it's not his fault.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:38
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fsif posted:Here's a novel loving idea: don't vote for a bill you think sucks poo poo. But if don't
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Jul 27, 2017 20:39
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evilweasel posted:if they make any changes at all, it goes back to the Senate and the scam is up Sure, but it's still the HFC. Hard to imagine they don't look to exact some sort of price for their cooperation.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:39
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theflyingorc posted:He has limited time to use reconciliation. Which would then prompt him to say it's over, but that's not this week.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:39
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What the gently caress does a Republican candidate even run on during the 2018 elections? (this is rhetorical - I know the answer and it's ugly)
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Jul 27, 2017 20:40
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Hellblazer187 posted:So, I keep thinking about the doom and gloom of the senate map for 2018 - the Dems are defending so many seats. But, the thing is, the reason they are defending so many is because those are seats that they won in 2012. Which means each Senate Democrat is sitting in a winnable seat - it was won literally the very last time it was contested. Dems in 2018 are likely to be energized, and demographic movement continues to favor the Democrats even if it didn't result in Auto-Prez-2016 like we assumed. Are the dems really in that much danger of losing senate seats in 2018? If Heller votes for this he's done (probably done anyways). The real issue is that there's lots of vulnerable dem seats, and one vulnerable republican seat, and one "maybe if the stars align" more vulnerable republican seat. Even if they keep every seat - a tricky thing to do, but doable - they cannot retake the Senate without black swan-like events because there's just not enough vulnerable Republican seats.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:40
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sharkbomb posted:What the gently caress does a Republican candidate even run on during the 2018 elections? (this is rhetorical - I know the answer and it's ugly) "we're republican and we love america, just like you"
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Jul 27, 2017 20:41
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Rigel posted:Reminder if some big important skinny repeal vote fails: it's not over until the turtle declares that it's over before retreating back into his shell. When is the reconciliation deadline?
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Jul 27, 2017 20:42
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sharkbomb posted:What the gently caress does a Republican candidate even run on during an election? (this is rhetorical - I know the answer and it's ugly) The government is dysfunctional! Elect me to get rid of it! Then while in power they do a good job of making sure the government stays dysfunctional.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:42
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I'm really looking forward to shifting through the ashes for a copy of the book someone will write on the social psychology of what's going on with both Trump and Congress because it feels like there's some kind of massive self-psychosis/gaslighting operation going on. Folie a quarante-douze, if you will.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:42
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mango sentinel posted:When is the reconciliation deadline? probably September 30th but nobody seems 100% sure
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Jul 27, 2017 20:43
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Hellblazer187 posted:So, I keep thinking about the doom and gloom of the senate map for 2018 - the Dems are defending so many seats. But, the thing is, the reason they are defending so many is because those are seats that they won in 2012. Which means each Senate Democrat is sitting in a winnable seat - it was won literally the very last time it was contested. Dems in 2018 are likely to be energized, and demographic movement continues to favor the Democrats even if it didn't result in Auto-Prez-2016 like we assumed. Are the dems really in that much danger of losing senate seats in 2018? If Heller votes for this he's done (probably done anyways). Nevada and Arizona really feel like the only states where the Dems have a chance to gain senators in 2018, I think, and there are more places they could lose them. Very unlikely that Collins or Murkowski change alliances.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:43
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Boyscouts apologized for the President hijacking the jamboree. http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/27/politics/boy-scouts-trump-apology/index.html
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Jul 27, 2017 20:43
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I'm getting flashbacks of that bill to sue Saudia Arabia over 9/11. Everyone said it was dumb, Obama vetoed, they overrode it, and then said we didn't know it was dumb, so its your fault. This is going to be our healthcare now.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:44
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Hellblazer187 posted:Is there any possibility of Collins or Murkowski switching parties? Only if trump goes totally apeshit on collins and she isnt defended at all. She might go "gently caress this, ill switch parties and run for governor after this term." I don't think murkowski switches.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:44
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Bicyclops posted:Nevada and Arizona really feel like the only states where the Dems have a chance to gain senators in 2018, I think, and there are more places they could lose them. Very unlikely that Collins or Murkowski change alliances. O'Rourke seems off to a nice start in Texas. Though I remember when Wendy Davis was going to be governor.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:44
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Jul 27, 2017 20:44
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Bicyclops posted:Nevada and Arizona really feel like the only states where the Dems have a chance to gain senators in 2018, I think, and there are more places they could lose them. Very unlikely that Collins or Murkowski change alliances. yeah best (reasonable) case scenario is winning Nevada and holding all seats, the dream is taking Arizona - which is not all that reasonable but not crazy, meaning they're down 49-51 or 50-51 to actually take the Senate you'd need to defeat Cruz or maybe Corker, neither of which is happening
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Jul 27, 2017 20:45
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Kaboobi posted:"we're republican and we love america, just like you" Sadly probably enough for America's beloved grand old party. Just blame the Democrats likw always if poo poo goes bad
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Jul 27, 2017 20:45
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evilweasel posted:yeah best (reasonable) case scenario is winning Nevada and holding all seats, the dream is taking Arizona - which is not all that reasonable but not crazy, meaning they're down 49-51 or 50-51 If McCain has to resign then there's another seat available in Arizona....
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Jul 27, 2017 20:47
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HappyHippo posted:If McCain has to resign then there's another seat available in Arizona.... Not till the end of his term, I thought. Governor appoints someone to take his seat for the remainder.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:47
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Kale posted:Sadly probably enough for America's beloved grand old party. Just blame the Democrats likw always if poo poo goes bad People blame the guys in power. It's why if Hillary had won there would have been a devastating 2018. Instead it goes the other way.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:48
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HappyHippo posted:If McCain has to resign then there's another seat available in Arizona.... He's not gonna resign, buuuuut that might not be necessary
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Jul 27, 2017 20:48
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this ride sucks I want to get off https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/890659791663759365
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Jul 27, 2017 20:49
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very bad news, though somewhat expected: https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/890660114088116225
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Jul 27, 2017 20:49
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https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/890658214408101889
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Jul 27, 2017 20:49
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It'd be pretty insane if they held every seat and got both Nevada seats and got two Arizona seats, though. That's like beyond the stars aligning, it's a crack in the universe opening up and a more sane timeline leaking into ours.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:49
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/890660372796932096
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Jul 27, 2017 20:50
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Spiritus Nox posted:Not till the end of his term, I thought. Governor appoints someone to take his seat for the remainder. The way it works is: governor appoints someone to fill the seat until the next general election (2018). Then whoever wins that holds the seat for the remainder of McCain's term (until 2022).
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Jul 27, 2017 20:50
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evilweasel posted:The real issue is that there's lots of vulnerable dem seats, and one vulnerable republican seat, and one "maybe if the stars align" more vulnerable republican seat. Even if they keep every seat - a tricky thing to do, but doable - they cannot retake the Senate without black swan-like events because there's just not enough vulnerable Republican seats. Agree with this, but given that we're living the greatest black swan event of our lifetimes, I think it's worth factoring that the odds of subsequent black swan events are more plausible than usual.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:50
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Spiritus Nox posted:Not till the end of his term, I thought. Governor appoints someone to take his seat for the remainder. Temporary appointment until the next State-wide election.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:51
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Bicyclops posted:It'd be pretty insane if they held every seat and got both Nevada seats and got two Arizona seats, though. That's like beyond the stars aligning, it's a crack in the universe opening up and a more sane timeline leaking into ours. That's only because you are contemplating the sane path to victory. There is a way Democrats win those seats that fits our timeline perfectly you just have to be as insane as this universe to see it.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:52
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Kaboobi posted:this ride sucks I want to get off What in the gently caress is this poo poo
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Jul 27, 2017 20:52
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Spiritus Nox posted:Not till the end of his term, I thought. Governor appoints someone to take his seat for the remainder. Governor appoints someone until the next election in 2018, then the person who is elected only gets to serve until McCain's term is up, at which point there's another election.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:52
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Delthalaz posted:Somehow Werner Herzog quotes about animals also apply to Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Werner hates chickens. (lol those quotes  so angry... )Look at those frigid German poultryloathing eyes.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:52
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HappyHippo posted:The way it works is: governor appoints someone to fill the seat until the next general election (2018). Then whoever wins that holds the seat for the remainder of McCain's term (until 2022). Ah, thanks. https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/890658662141747200 Vote no you worthless poo poo
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Jul 27, 2017 20:52
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Harrow posted:What in the gently caress is this poo poo It's a quote from Trump, not about Trump.
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Jul 27, 2017 20:53
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Sandeep posted:Sequestration was supposed to be a poison pill and it ended up not working out that way. I don't think anyone in congress feels confident about passing a bill with a poison pill and counting on that to force later legislation. If you put a tax hike in there that would be sufficient to ensure the House goes to conference to remove it. Something like eliminating the deductibility of employer health care contributions or boosting the Medicare tax cap. But then every GOP member in the senate would be on record as voting for a tax hike.
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