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fnox posted:Jesus, that the US is removing diplomatic personnel from the country is really serious stuff. They must know something we don't, and what they know must be horrible. God knows what's gonna happen to the country after this Sunday. Families being evacuated comes along with the warning signs of large scale violent instability of any flavor. This protects the families and makes the footprint smaller if/when poo poo hits the fan and everybody else is evacuated.
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Jul 28, 2017 15:35
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Labradoodle posted:I'm 95% sure they're also letting the rest of the employees leave voluntarily, according to a Reuters tweet I say, but I'm too lazy to look it up. I suppose that's a notch below poo poo hitting the fan. Godfuckingdamnit stay safe, you and any venegoons still left in there. poo poo looks grim.
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Jul 28, 2017 15:37
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I had a chance this morning to go through the news more carefully and I'm not counting nine dead since Wednesday morning. There's a kind of rhythm to some of the chaos that the country has been experiencing lately. The marches that the opposition kept trying to stage to the western part of Caracas, for example, always developed along the same pattern: rally in the east starting at 10:00 AM; get on the Francisco Fajardo by around 11:00 AM; clash with the National Guard when the march gets to Las Mercedes; go home, and repeat the next time. Another kind of regular pattern that has emerged is the night-time raid. It's become commonplace for officers from the SEBIN (the political police) and the CONAS (an anti-kidnapping unit) to raid residential complexes, usually in Caracas, when night falls. The video below, shot in the La Candelaria neighbourhood of Caracas on Wednesday night, shows someone--either a SEBIN/CONAS officer, or a regime militia--shooting at a streetlight to cover the raids in the area that night: https://twitter.com/OVCSocial/status/890445439572606976 The raids usually involve officers destroying the front gates of residential communities with their armored trucks. La Patilla has pictures of the damage done to a residential complex in Palo Verde, Caracas last night here. This video shows some of the damage done to a building in Caracas during a raid the other night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDzVVhY-eds A bit on the recent oil talk here in the thread: El Universal has an article today that cites an economist named Francisco Farado as saying that any kind of oil embargo/sanction against PDVSA by the US would immediately cut Venezuela's oil income by 75%. Labradoodle posted:As for the Constituent, I'm not sure what to expect. The government won't back down at this stage so the MUD will probably continue to escalate protests. At some point, we'll probably start seeing mass looting in Caracas, which is when I think we'll know that poo poo really hit the fan. Stay safe, pana.
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Jul 28, 2017 16:15
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Well I think that answers how absolutely tragic for the Venezuelan economy sanctions against the oil industry by the US would be.
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Jul 28, 2017 18:38
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Yeah, it's pretty much a nuclear option.
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Jul 28, 2017 19:41
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A retired National Guard lieutenant colonel named Eduardo Gil Rodriguez (53) was shot to death by the National Guard at a protest in Cardenas, Tachira state. He is the 114th person killed in protest-related violence since April 1, and the 10th person killed since July 26. There were lots of clashes around the country today again. This we're at the top of the 9th inning. In Tovar, Tachira, protesters broke into a voting centre and burned electoral material: https://twitter.com/danielmorillo_/status/891025486113058816 From Ejido, Merida, were fighting has killed three people in the last few days. Five priests walk up a street to meet a National Guard convoy: https://twitter.com/radiofeyalegria/status/891018206323904513 The video below shows a dump truck emptying tree branches on a stretch of the Rio de Janeiro avenue in Caracas this afternoon. A group of protesters then get to work building a barricade: https://twitter.com/anavescobar/status/891005350954061828 More barricades from today in La Candelaria, Caracas: https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/891001921678520320 In Rubio, Tachira, colectivos armados patrolled the streets looking for protesters. The image below shows a colectivo patrol there this afternoon: https://twitter.com/tinchavel/status/891021341486444548 I'm not sure where this video was shot, but I believe that it's from today. It shows a colectivo militia driving a motorcycle with a National Guard soldier riding in the back. The soldier calmly hops off the bike and throws a tear gas grenade directly into a home: https://twitter.com/cristiancrespoj/status/891017510778281989 The video below was shot on the 26th, but I'd missed it until today. It shows a group of National Guard soldiers subduing a protester. As the unarmed protester lays on the ground, one of the soldiers shoots him at point blank range (with rubber pellets--still lethal). The soldiers then leave the man in agony: https://twitter.com/Sinmordaza/status/890974135538647040 ugh its Troika posted:Yeah, it's pretty much a nuclear option. Yes. It's hard to overestimate how catastrophic something like sanctions against PDVSA would be for the country. It would be one of the worst things that the US could do right now for Venezuela. Since Trump and his gang of... people are in power, I'm terrified because they're senseless enough to do it.
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Jul 29, 2017 00:18
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And yet, if things continue to escalate, threatening it may be the only option. Suppose Maduro goes full Assad and orders the military to gun down protesters en masse?
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Jul 29, 2017 00:58
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My extremely informed take as a Canadian who knows nothing about Venezuela is that Maduro will never step down on his own because he's bugfuck crazy. He'll get pulled down by the army or another wing of his party is my guess, and there is also the ever possible lone gunman.
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Jul 29, 2017 01:14
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As an engineer I have to ask: do you know people with generators and Shortwave radios, and better still a way to transmit encrypted texts over said radios? Because everything you're saying sounds to me like major communication infrastructure will be in jealousy over the next few months. Establishing comm relays to get your stories and needs spread throughout the country and to the outside world could wind up being critical.
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Jul 29, 2017 01:18
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M_Gargantua posted:As an engineer I have to ask: do you know people with generators and Shortwave radios, and better still a way to transmit encrypted texts over said radios? Because everything you're saying sounds to me like major communication infrastructure will be in jealousy over the next few months. Establishing comm relays to get your stories and needs spread throughout the country and to the outside world could wind up being critical. FidoNet Echomail has shortwave implementations, iirc.
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Jul 29, 2017 01:33
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One more fatality, this one in San Cristobal, Tachira: 18 year old Gustavo Villamizar, shot in the head while protesting this evening. Assailants unknown. ugh its Troika posted:And yet, if things continue to escalate, threatening it may be the only option. Suppose Maduro goes full Assad and orders the military to gun down protesters en masse? Scaramouche posted:My extremely informed take as a Canadian who knows nothing about Venezuela is that Maduro will never step down on his own because he's bugfuck crazy. He'll get pulled down by the army or another wing of his party is my guess, and there is also the ever possible lone gunman. M_Gargantua posted:As an engineer I have to ask: do you know people with generators and Shortwave radios, and better still a way to transmit encrypted texts over said radios? Because everything you're saying sounds to me like major communication infrastructure will be in jealousy over the next few months. Establishing comm relays to get your stories and needs spread throughout the country and to the outside world could wind up being critical.
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Jul 29, 2017 03:39
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Jesus, stay save Venezuela goons. It looks like its falling apart.
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Jul 29, 2017 03:42
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Chuck Boone posted:One more fatality, this one in San Cristobal, Tachira: 18 year old Gustavo Villamizar, shot in the head while protesting this evening. Assailants unknown. I was the one who asked about Amateur Radio organizations in Venezuela. I did some more research since then, and it turns out that there are several clubs in Caracas alone! http://gdxc.org/ http://yv5rcv.org/ http://hfdx.org/ MullardEL34 fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Jul 29, 2017 |
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Jul 29, 2017 04:20
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Chuck Boone posted:Someone asked about shortwave radios in the thread a while back, and the answer that the thread came up with (if I remember correctly) was that their price/technical requirements might make them beyond the reach of the vast majority of the country. I Googled different variations of the Spanish for "Shortwave radio station Venezuela" and didn't find anything. That's not to say that they don't exist or that no one has them, of course, but it's definitely not a common hobby. You can make a fair shortwave SDR (Software defined radio) with a $30 tuner plugged into whatever computer you have. Attach it to some wire strung between two trees and youre in business. That will give you some ability to cover an urban area as long as your aiming for antennas without too much obstructing the line of sight. The off the shelf 100W radios go for about $1,000 here, and those can cover a whole municipality. Luckily while commercial stuff is great and readily available here, its also designed to be put on a shelf and used for years. The great thing about radio is that basic functionality can be rigged up very simpy, the technology is old now and you can do a lot with recycled electronics. Pretty much anyone who can work with electronics can scrape together parts for a shortwave and roughly copy a basic design from the internet. Reliable communication helps a huge amount in crisis. Its something that the US suffered horribly for just from hurricane Katrina, and that was with FEMA and the national guard responding, but without knowing about tons of groups who were desperate for water or shelter. If you've got a barking chain ask around for some electrical college people or just tech savvy sort who can improvise. A lot can be successfully jury rigged in a short time if you have the time to salvage the parts. What else would happen if you and your fellows lost internet and phone lines? MullardEL34 posted:I was the one who asked about Amateur Radio organizations in Venezuela. Organizing and inventorying ahead of time will lay the ground work.
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Jul 29, 2017 04:39
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M_Gargantua posted:You can make a fair shortwave SDR (Software defined radio) with a $30 tuner plugged into whatever computer you have. Attach it to some wire strung between two trees and youre in business. That will give you some ability to cover an urban area as long as your aiming for antennas without too much obstructing the line of sight. The off the shelf 100W radios go for about $1,000 here, and those can cover a whole municipality. Even for those without a lot of money, a used CB radio with SSB and a cheap chinese 2m-440 handheld would be better than nothing for local communication, and the CB could work DX when the conditions are right. Most CB's can easily be modified for the 10m amateur radio band if necessary.
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Jul 29, 2017 04:44
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Yeah, handhelds will be super useful, especially if someone could grab a whole pile and batteries to boot. But I was more pointing out how you could maybe finagle something more regionally with some spit and gumption.
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Jul 29, 2017 04:50
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M_Gargantua posted:Yeah, handhelds will be super useful, especially if someone could grab a whole pile and batteries to boot. Venezuela's local version of ebay is actually loaded with used ham gear. https://www.mercadolibre.com.ve/
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Jul 29, 2017 04:58
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Thanks for all this radio info, guys. I'm clearly way out of my depth when it comes to this sort of stuff. The results of a survey by the Datanalsis polling firm were just released this evening. The survey supports previous surveys in showing that the Constituent Assembly is overwhelmingly unpopular. Some figures from the survey:
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Jul 29, 2017 05:19
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Calling it shortwave is confusing the issue. Most English sources use shortwave to mean professional commercial/government broadcasting on the bands in question and I believe that the Spanish terms have the same connotation. Going straight to just all amateur radio/ham radio would be the way to go.
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Jul 29, 2017 05:43
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Wanna get from Caracas to Miami in a hurry? That'll be $1,500 US please. If you can snag a ticket in time. And it's a lovely airliner too. A nice plane will cost you $2,500. Oh you wanted to go to Caracas? We can accommodate that for $305. (When I first looked there was a $285 ticket, with a stopover in Barcelona. I got a bit excited until I realized it's the Barcelona in Venezuela since it's Avior. Courtesy Expedia.)  Comparison of international & domestic flight availability in Venezuela in July 2008(left) vs today(right). Today's version of the Wikipedia article for Caracas airport doesn't even have a separate column for domestic and international flights. You can also see the decrease in passenger traffic (7 million in 2005 to 5 million in 2015, I'm guessing the 2015 estimate is a little inflated).  I became curious how many foreign air carriers and international flights still left Caracas, so I did a little digging on Wikipedia (reliability caveats apply). It's definitely down considerably since 2008, though not ALL of this is because of Chavismo. It's not Caracas airport but Avior has service from Barcelona(VZ) to Miami on Expedia.  The decline since 2008 is fairly staggering when you consider Caracas airport was in the middle of a planned expansion until just a few years ago, instead seeing a major decline in service. They never did finish the monorail or the hotel (the wikipedia text changed from "An on-site hotel is currently being built and is expected to open by the end of 2007." to "An on-site hotel was on construction but it halted before it was finished, it is unknown if it will ever be finished and opened since works in the airport have stopped as well on most areas" in 2008 to " As part of an expansion plan, new international gates are currently in construction, and a section of the parking area has been cleared to build an airport hotel" in 2014. Flight availability from Caracas vs Bogota or Santiago is striking (Bogota now offers twice as many international carriers as Caracas). Even more so when one considers many of the 'new' international flights out of Caracas since 2008 are from Venezuelan carriers. In fact only 4 foreign carriers have begun service to Caracas since 2008: LAW (A small chilean startup from 2016, 1 flight), World Atlantic Airlines (Small Miami startup, 1 flight), Turkish Airlines (maybe Aissami and Lebanese expats take this to visit home? 2 hops), and TAME (Ecuadorian airliner). I'm surprised they've even been able to keep service going this long, given the difficulty of getting cash out of Venezuela. The list of direct foreign destinations out of Caracas is getting short, still some options for the moment, but for how much longer? edit: I'd also add the wikipedia articles for Venezuela's airliners are basically a series of horror stories. Pota hemplo: RUTACA has only 9 planes but has had at least 4 major incidents since 2001, Venezolana had to ground its international flights due to currency shortages from CADIVI and resumed them only after being bought by private investors, and even Venezuela's premier carrier Conviasa was forced to suspend all international service to due foreign currency shortages. Conviasa also reportedly had 80% of its pilots quit, suffered the flight 2350 crash, and was briefly banned from flying to the EU over safety concerns. Eregos fucked around with this message at 04:10 on Jul 30, 2017 |
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Jul 29, 2017 11:42
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Lets say you're a Venezuelan and worried about the safety record of Venezuelan carriers, and insist on taking a foreign carrier out of Caracas. But you also hate flying, Cuba, and only want to take 1 flight, just to get out of hell. Your direct destination options are now: Buenos Aires, Madrid, Miami, Port-of-Spain, Panama City, Santiago, Bogota, Lisbon, and Istanbul. Only 9 Choices remaining. (Not counting private chartered jets of course).
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Jul 29, 2017 12:54
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My uncle works for a subsidiary of a state-owned company. This is the message that his company sent him this morning:quote:[INDUSTRY] WORKER: THIS JULY 30, ONCE YOU HAVE EXERCISED YOUR RIGHT TO VOTE, SEND YOUR NATIONAL I.D. NUMBER TO [PHONE NUMBER]. Speaking about violence earlier, this kind of violence always strikes a nerve with me. Just try to put yourself in my uncle's shoes when he wakes up tomorrow morning, or in the shoes of the millions of Venezuelans who work for the state and who have been threatened for weeks to vote or else. "Am I a man of principles, or will I let myself be used like this? What good is being a man of principles if I lose my job? Who else would hire me at my age, and in this chaos? Would it not be more responsible for me to vote so that I can keep my job and continue to provide for my family? But that's not how my father raised me--but he did raise me to take care of my family above all else, didn't he. Would he have voted?", etc. This is the kind of decision that sticks with you your whole life, that nags you to the bone at night when you're trying to sleep years and years down the line. This is the kind of decision that, once you make it, you might keep hidden among your darkest secrets until you die because of how shameful it might be for you. This is, as my uncle has called it, "psychological terror".
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Jul 29, 2017 14:07
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I would really like to comment on any of the points brought up but I'm still recovering from being beyond pissed off all of yesterday when I learned Mexican Customs greeted my sister with a huge "Return to Sender"...
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Jul 29, 2017 14:15
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AstraSage posted:I would really like to comment on any of the points brought up but I'm still recovering from being beyond pissed off all of yesterday when I learned Mexican Customs greeted my sister with a huge "Return to Sender"... Sadly as much as we might wish it true the US does not have a monopoly on being poo poo to foreigners in terrible situations.
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Jul 29, 2017 15:40
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Vaya con Dios, Venezuela.
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Jul 29, 2017 21:48
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AstraSage posted:I would really like to comment on any of the points brought up but I'm still recovering from being beyond pissed off all of yesterday when I learned Mexican Customs greeted my sister with a huge "Return to Sender"... What the gently caress? They sent your sister back to Venezuela? Did they give her any reason why?
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Jul 30, 2017 03:09
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So, today is probably gonna be crazy.. Stay safe, all of you!
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Jul 30, 2017 13:39
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Maduro had his ID card checked on live TV and the scanner said : This person does not exist or the card was annulled. https://mobile.twitter.com/dianacaroruiz/status/891623165276848128
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Jul 30, 2017 13:48
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Eregos posted:Wanna get from Caracas to Miami in a hurry? That'll be $1,500 US please. If you can snag a ticket in time. And it's a lovely airliner too. A nice plane will cost you $2,500. Oh you wanted to go to Caracas? We can accommodate that for $305. (When I first looked there was a $285 ticket, with a stopover in Barcelona. I got a bit excited until I realized it's the Barcelona in Venezuela since it's Avior. Courtesy Expedia.) One of those there is just there mostly being forced, TAP which used to also fly to Madeira Island on the way to Lisbon from and to Caracas suspended that stopover and has been complaining about the route being unprofitable, it is only kept active because of the high number of Portuguese that live in Venezuela and the Portuguese government having re-nationalized 50% of TAP, otherwise I doubt they would still be flying.
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Jul 30, 2017 13:52
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beer_war posted:Maduro had his ID card checked on live TV and the scanner said : If they have to use a slow android with a slow connection to verify voters that will take a while.
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Jul 30, 2017 13:54
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beer_war posted:Maduro had his ID card checked on live TV and the scanner said : Damnatio memoriae is getting kinda abstract.
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Jul 30, 2017 13:54
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This is why we can't have satire in Latin America.
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Jul 30, 2017 13:59
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So #VenezuelaVotaHoy seems to show a lot of support for the constituiente, what's the mood like in Caracas right now? Is there a Twitter account or something I can follow for real time news?
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Jul 30, 2017 14:02
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orange sky posted:So #VenezuelaVotaHoy seems to show a lot of support for the constituiente, what's the mood like in Caracas right now? Is there a Twitter account or something I can follow for real time news? I believe CNN en Espaņol is having a full day coverage of the events today, otherwise, you can use this channel to get live coverage. If you need them to be in English however, you're poo poo out of luck.
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Jul 30, 2017 14:46
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Labradoodle posted:What the gently caress? They sent your sister back to Venezuela? Did they give her any reason why? The final reason she got was she didn't have enough money on hand for her two-month trip, but it was clear that was just her Brutish Interrogator (The idiot spent hours forcing my sister to recite her travel plans and personal info of the friends who were gonna host her, and even damaged my sis' confiscated phone) looking for the Cat's Fifth Paw: All the Venezuelans on that flight were sent back for wildly different reasons. Honestly, this ended up being a reminder that the only governments that are actually compassionate about Venezuelans' plight are Chile and Peru, and that's only because they lived through Pinochet and Fujimori respectively...
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Jul 30, 2017 15:17
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orange sky posted:So #VenezuelaVotaHoy seems to show a lot of support for the constituiente, what's the mood like in Caracas right now? Is there a Twitter account or something I can follow for real time news? I put together two Twitter lists that cover Venezuela: One mostly in Spanish and one mostly in English. The regime has Twitter bot armies and a whole department devoted to manipulating social media to get hashtags trending. By all accounts, there has been anemic voter turnout for the election all around the country. The video below shows masked soldiers threatening journalists in El Paraiso, Caracas who were out covering the vote: https://twitter.com/Gbastidas/status/891646218127978497 This is "one of the biggest voting centres" in the city of San Carlos at around 10:00 AM this morning: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/891658835584266240 One of the voting centres in Caracas at around 8:45 AM: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/891655008323854337 A voting centre in Caracas with only about 25 people in line at 9:30 AM: https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/891654978191982592 The regime isn't letting journalists cover the vote and the machines don't work. People are choosing to risk getting fired rather than vote for this thing. I'm projecting a 98% voter turnout and somewhere around 16 million votes.
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Jul 30, 2017 15:17
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There are widespread reports of police and GNB opening fire on protesters, many wounded. Also apparently a bomb went off as PNB were passing by the Plaza Francia in Altamira, it's unclear how many were wounded. https://twitter.com/RCamachoVzla/status/891705079253921793
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Jul 30, 2017 18:57
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Yes, it's looking like 8-10 killed so far. The explosion in Altamira was intense: https://twitter.com/RayliLujan/status/891707028690882560 It looks like the explosive was made of/was a big firework?
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Jul 30, 2017 19:16
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I'm still not up to date with the acronyms. PNB, M_Gargantua fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Jul 30, 2017 |
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Jul 30, 2017 19:50
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The Wall Street Journal says the US could announce sanctions against PDVSA as early as tomorrow. They mention that banning oil imports isn't on the table yet, but they're considering halting exports of oil and refined products to Venezuela and restricting PDVSA's finances. poo poo's gonna get bleak.
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Jul 30, 2017 20:56
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