|
hailthefish posted:Except the North Korean regime emphatically does not want a rapprochement with 'the international community' in general or the US in particular. The regime derives its legitimacy from playing up the existential conflict between the inherently evil outside world and the inherently virtuous Korean people in need of the Great Leader's protection. A unilateral end to 'hostilities' from the US would, I think more likely than not, prompt the North Korean regime to become MORE bellicose, not less. Yeah. I'm sure the NK government would love for the sanctions to be lifted... so they can short their citizens strictly on their own terms. It would basically be lifting a trade block from the supplier, but the truck still gets pulled over and all the good stuff seized by the guards before it rolls into the distribution center for the masses. Also, the Kims and the NK military have no reason to ever negotiate non-proliferation treaties at this point, keeping what they have now and will very soon develop will always bring far more benefit to them diplomatically both in the short- and long-term than trading them away in some kind of "deal" and they know it. Paradoxish posted:They'd build more so that the threat goes from "we can hit any city" to "we can several cities" to "we can hit all of your cities." A small stockpile of nuclear weapons isn't really a credible deterrent against an opponent that can level your entire country, so there's no particular reason for them to stop escalating. And of course, there's money to be made selling surplus on the black market for precisely the reasons already discussed.
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 01:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 18, 2024 18:41 |
|
|
Burt Buckle posted:What's the worst that could happen if America just entirely pulled their military presence from the Korean Peninsula, ended economic sanctions, and reached out to Kim Jong to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea? Does North Korea truly have worse human rights issues than other countries that we already have 'good' relationships with? Probably a net decrease in US influence in the region, because any sort of gain by North Korea threatens Japanese and South Korean interests, which will hurt our relationship with those countries and decrease our influence over them. The reason we have our military presence on the Korean peninsula isn't just to defend South Korea - it's also to restrain and control South Korean militarization, to limit their ability to engage in military adventurism without US approval, and to provide an assurance that we won't just sail our ships away and withdraw our umbrella of protection in the face of an inconveniently-timed invasion.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 01:12
|
|
|
North Korea's lovely economy is far more from how they repeatedly burned foreign governments and companies on all sorts of contracts through the 80s ad 90s, then it is from actual sanctions. The pre-existing burning of their bridges is a large part of why support for sanctions afterwards was so widespread.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 01:25
|
|
|
GamingHyena posted:The North threatens to nuke the US / declare war on SK once every few weeks anyways so they have no credibility regardless of their intentions. It's hard to blackmail someone when you issue the same threat every month and never follow up on it. How do people not understand this?
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 02:16
|
|
|
Burt Sexual posted:How do people not understand this?
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 02:18
|
|
|
GamingHyena posted:The North threatens to nuke the US / declare war on SK once every few weeks anyways so they have no credibility regardless of their intentions. It's hard to blackmail someone when you issue the same threat every month and never follow up on it. Pretty much. A nuclear weapon is a great bargaining chip - besides the obvious military power boost it offers in an actual conflict, it also creates an incentive for the regime to be propped up lest their nuke(s) be lost in the chaos of state collapse. And should the state collapse, trading their nuclear weapons and the end of the North Korean nuclear program to the US, China, and so on is probably the only strong play the North Korean ruling elite would be able to make for any kind of clemency and personal security. A nuclear weapon also ensures that they can reliably bring the US and other regional interests to the negotiating table when they want some more negotiations for concessions, aid, and what have you, rather than being ignored or having their bluff called out. I think that's what people might be having a hard time wrapping their heads around, the idea that North Korean ruling elite probably don't actually have any ideological belief or desire for the North Korean state to persist. If anything, I suspect that if they could figure out a way to initiate reform in the country, look "good" doing it, and reap as much of the benefit from doing so as possible, they would. This isn't to say that they would become paragons of virtue and weep for their past crimes as they vow to do better; rather, they would be just as fine being a brutal capitalist state as they would be being whatever brutal weirdness they're claiming to espouse and uphold this month. So long as the power, wealth, and influence in the country remains centralized in their hands, it doesn't matter how that's generated or flows upwards to them, basically. So yeah, if we view the North Korean leadership as being just a bunch of self-interested pigs, rather than zealous and fanatical (First?) Cold War relics still anachronistically and earnestly seeking Juche victory over South Korea and the US...well, it seems very unlikely that they'll launch a nuke unless they absolutely have to, for the reasons you mention. This shouldn't be viewed as a military confrontation so much as a chess hustle, with North Korea's play tactic with its opponents being that you let them declare "Check" and win by default, or else they will literally drop millions of pawns into your lap and put you in a world of pain. It's so ridiculous it's almost like a movie; but considering what a supposed cinephile Kim Jong-il was, maybe that's almost by design or incorporated into the North's diplomatic strategies...
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 04:07
|
|
|
Kthulhu5000 posted:Pretty much. A nuclear weapon is a great bargaining chip - besides the obvious military power boost it offers in an actual conflict, it also creates an incentive for the regime to be propped up lest their nuke(s) be lost in the chaos of state collapse. And should the state collapse, trading their nuclear weapons and the end of the North Korean nuclear program to the US, China, and so on is probably the only strong play the North Korean ruling elite would be able to make for any kind of clemency and personal security. A nuclear weapon also ensures that they can reliably bring the US and other regional interests to the negotiating table when they want some more negotiations for concessions, aid, and what have you, rather than being ignored or having their bluff called out. Whoa I didn't realize this thread was moved. Ty
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 04:20
|
|
|
I've no particular objection to letting the Kims live out their natural lives in peaceful exile if they trade their nuclear weapons. Waging wars based upon human suffering has proven to be a terrible and tragic thing in recent years. Great power politics at least offer a chance for reasonable, rational resolutions.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 04:44
|
|
Cat Army 
|
Kthulhu5000 posted:I think that's what people might be having a hard time wrapping their heads around, the idea that North Korean ruling elite probably don't actually have any ideological belief or desire for the North Korean state to persist. If anything, I suspect that if they could figure out a way to initiate reform in the country, look "good" doing it, and reap as much of the benefit from doing so as possible, they would. This isn't to say that they would become paragons of virtue and weep for their past crimes as they vow to do better; rather, they would be just as fine being a brutal capitalist state as they would be being whatever brutal weirdness they're claiming to espouse and uphold this month. So long as the power, wealth, and influence in the country remains centralized in their hands, it doesn't matter how that's generated or flows upwards to them, basically. I don't see why the NK ruling class can't be cynics wanting to remain king-of-the-hill at all costs and dream of reuniting the peninsula and the Korean people under their effective rule in the long-term. Or even just different factions within the governmental structure having those goals to varying degrees.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 06:00
|
|
|
The Iron Rose posted:I've no particular objection to letting the Kims live out their natural lives in peaceful exile if they trade their nuclear weapons. Such an arrangement would be great in theory but patently unworkable in practice. Suppose you're the ruler of an autocratic state. You lead a life of luxury and have the heady power to decide the fate of millions. You also have a monstrous record on human rights and are wildly unpopular with the rest of the world. You also possess nuclear weapons, and know one of the few things preventing a hostile foreign power from installing a new regime is the headache of dealing with a nuclear armed failed state. One day a Western diplomat comes to you and requests you give up all of your power as well as your nuclear weapons. In exchange, the West offers you an unsubstantiated guarantee of living a luxurious life elsewhere. You know that the West doesn't like you and their citizens will be unhappy with the idea of you living it up after causing the deaths of so many people. You also know that once you cede power you have no power to enforce the agreement as you'll just be another mildly rich guy. Would you take the deal? Let's say you decide to take the deal. Your generals find out about it. They know they are also responsible for human rights violations and that their leader just bargained away their only leverage in an effort to save himself. What are your odds of leaving the country alive?
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 06:08
|
|
|
Oh that's great if it happens. I was more thinking we extend the offer a day or two after crossing the DMZ 
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 06:57
|
|
|
.
sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:07
|
|
|
sincx posted:What do you suppose would happen if the US intercepts the next North Korean ICBM missile test? I'm sure the US can come up with some pretext like "the test launch would have hit civilian vessels in Japan's EEZ." Can't be done. The US doesn't have any system, certainly not in the area, with which they could intercept a North Korean ICBM test.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:15
|
|
|
.
sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:20
|
|
|
If we test and miss, that could cause some other problems.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:23
|
|
|
sincx posted:What about Ground-Based Midcourse Defense? If the North Korean test was aimed at the Midwest, maybe. Otherwise no. The Alaskan based interceptors can (attempt) to defend against an attack on the lower 48 states of the US, but can't target stuff happening in the sea of Japan.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:26
|
|
|
sincx posted:What about Ground-Based Midcourse Defense? Also, it is still completely developmental and may stay that way. The SM-3 I think is still primarily naval based. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:59 on Jul 31, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:43
|
|
|
mediadave posted:Can't be done. The US doesn't have any system, certainly not in the area, with which they could intercept a North Korean ICBM test. I would think an SM-3 could do it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:52
|
|
|
RaffyTaffy posted:I would think an SM-3 could do it. OK, sure, why not.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 07:58
|
|
|
RaffyTaffy posted:I would think an SM-3 could do it. It could, and is carried by both US and Japanese ships.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 13:12
|
|
|
sincx posted:What do you suppose would happen if the US intercepts the next North Korean ICBM missile test? I'm sure the US can come up with some pretext like "the test launch would have hit civilian vessels in Japan's EEZ." If the US were capable of doing that, no one would be worrying about the North Korean missile program.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 13:17
|
|
|
nm posted:If we test and miss, that could cause some other problems. As revealed in the final scene of this documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEqvqbjzWuU
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 14:37
|
|
|
The Iron Rose posted:Haha no. Certainly not without sparking an intraregional arms race. GamingHyena posted:Greatly worsened relations between the US and South Korea as we unilaterally end one of our oldest mutual defense treaties and slightly worsened relations with our other allies as we give them an excellent reason to doubt our word. South Korea develops nukes to counter NK nukes and searches for other nearby countries (China) to counter the North Korean threat. North Korea demands economic assistance from the US, and then diverts that money to further enrich the ruling class at the expense of their citizens. Domestically, North Korea uses it as a huge propaganda victory but continues to pump its citizens full of anti-US propaganda to keep them in line. Seeing NK's success, other despotic countries attempt to emulate the NK model of US relations. fishmech posted:North Korea's lovely economy is far more from how they repeatedly burned foreign governments and companies on all sorts of contracts through the 80s ad 90s, then it is from actual sanctions. The pre-existing burning of their bridges is a large part of why support for sanctions afterwards was so widespread. Kthulhu5000 posted:I think that's what people might be having a hard time wrapping their heads around, the idea that North Korean ruling elite probably don't actually have any ideological belief or desire for the North Korean state to persist. If anything, I suspect that if they could figure out a way to initiate reform in the country, look "good" doing it, and reap as much of the benefit from doing so as possible, they would. Kerning Chameleon posted:I don't see why the NK ruling class can't be cynics wanting to remain king-of-the-hill at all costs and dream of reuniting the peninsula and the Korean people under their effective rule in the long-term. Or even just different factions within the governmental structure having those goals to varying degrees.
|
|
#
?
Jul 31, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
Kerning Chameleon posted:I don't see why the NK ruling class can't be cynics wanting to remain king-of-the-hill at all costs and dream of reuniting the peninsula and the Korean people under their effective rule in the long-term. Or even just different factions within the governmental structure having those goals to varying degrees. Because it seems pretty unlikely. Even if there is some remnant "true believing" about North Korea's destiny from Kim Il-sung's time floating around, I doubt the North Korean leadership are going to waste time and energy deluding themselves as to its feasibility and using it as a deciding criteria, not when they can probably see how badly they're outclassed by their neighbors and the US economically and militarily. I have no doubt there's factionalism among the North Korea elite, but I suspect it's more based around watching out for the interests of one's relationships and patron networks, rather than any ideological divide. You might see more conflict over who gets proceeds from selling whatever legitimate goods North Korea exports, or who gets money from all the illicit money channels (drugs, arms, and so on) that the government has run and probably still does, than over the nation's manifest destiny. Halloween Jack posted:The view that the elite are entirely cynical seems to be pretty popular in the West. I think that living in a secular society, we tend to view any "radical" ideology as necessarily espoused by either the completely irrational or the completely cynical. I doubt that the DPRK elite, despite having access to far more information than ordinary citizens, develop an ideology that's entirely orthogonal to the official one. The single most important difference is that a lot of people in the DPRK want to go to war--because despite the gaps in the information cordon, the average person doesn't understand how badly outmatched they are by modern conventional weapons. Eh, it's not that they're total cynics who publicly espouse one set of views and then snidely denigrate those same views in private. It's more that the North Korean state has decayed so much that it doesn't exist as a political entity separate from the people who make up its government. It exists as a means of enriching them through whatever means of generating and extracting wealth can be conjured up, and also to buffer and protect them from anyone who might threaten their position or revenue. The Juche stays around, because the government's authority depends on being a brutal totalitarian state, and part of that is appearing as constant and unchanging as possible no matter what. Essentially, North Korea's core reason to exist nowadays is to give the leaders of the nation maneuvering room to continue dodging and forestalling having to reckon with the international community for their various crimes and failings over past decades. And perhaps, down the line, setup a pivot to something else that works better. This is why they're so radical-seeming; they're desperate to keep North Korea going for another day, or year, or decade or (god forbid) century, as it is, because the alternative is being clapped in irons and facing a lifetime of investigations, tribunals, and prison cells when everything collapses and the aftermath is dealt with. At this point for them, it's in for a penny, in for a pound - they have everything to gain and nothing to lose by putting on a saber-rattling show and playing up how much they think everyone else sucks, so long as it never goes too far and the rest of the world is willing to give in because the alternative is a bigger nightmare than allowing and helping to maintain North Korea's status quo indefinitely. And as I mentioned, nuclear weapons provide them more insurance. Because just as the West fears what is likely a longshot event of North Korea detonating a nuke in violence, I bet North Korea's leaders probably fear an equally longshot event where the outside world calls their bluff and decides not to engage with them anymore, drat the consequences if they collapse. Keeping the nuclear fear in the background helps to mitigate that likelihood and gives more heft to their demands. They ensure that external actors will stay out of North Korea, but they also ensure that North Korea can still engage with the outside world from a position of greater strength, and that the outside world has to engage with North Korea. Probably the only thing worse to the North Korean government, past even being overthrown by a military invasion, is being sanctioned, embargoed, and ignored to deal with the mess of North Korea entirely by themselves. Because it's a certain recipe for collapse and Things Going Very Badly for them. All of this is what makes the most sense to me, rather than anything that suggests the North Korean government really does believe Juche is Cool and Real and the whole world needs to find out about it, by force if necessary. We wouldn't be seeing and hearing so much about North Korea these days, if they were truly content to clam up and practice weirdo communism to satisfy themselves alone.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 07:15
|
|
|
Kthulhu5000 posted:Because it seems pretty unlikely. Even if there is some remnant "true believing" about North Korea's destiny from Kim Il-sung's time floating around, I doubt the North Korean leadership are going to waste time and energy deluding themselves as to its feasibility and using it as a deciding criteria, not when they can probably see how badly they're outclassed by their neighbors and the US economically and militarily. quote:All of this is what makes the most sense to me, rather than anything that suggests the North Korean government really does believe Juche is Cool and Real and the whole world needs to find out about it, by force if necessary. We wouldn't be seeing and hearing so much about North Korea these days, if they were truly content to clam up and practice weirdo communism to satisfy themselves alone.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 15:06
|
|
|
I think a lot of thinking politely ignores China, which means something like Kaesong is if anything a relatively minor issue (also I am sure those factories can be repurposed without SK). If anything the belief in hawks/doves in the Soviet Union if anything also over simplifies what was happening in the Soviet Union as well (also helps exploit the idea the Soviets were deeply divided, which is if anything debatable). At a certain point, you have to admit that a lot of our "understanding" of antagonistic countries (including Iran) is based on the assumptions and biases of a very small group of people who usually live somewhere in the DC metro area. Also, the entire subtext with Juche, was that North Korea lost its major trade partners in the 1990s, and was forced to rely on Autarky to stay a float. If anything the same thing happened to Cuba without the fanfare. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Aug 1, 2017 |
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 16:01
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:
Except Juche was invented in the 50s and 60s by Kim Il Sung trying to have a Local Socialism to match what other Soviet-orbit countries did. And also North Korea had lost most of their major trade partners through the 1980s - in the 70s it had still been common for North Korea to trade with much of Western Europe, South America and Africa, not just Eastern Bloc countries, and not just the Soviets. But during the 80s, the backdealing they did eliminated most Western trade and even a huge chunk of Eastern Bloc trade. And people in those countries certainly weren't going to come back to North Korea for trade after that. The new ideology of the 90s was Songun, the Military first policy, largely believed to be instituted as Kim Jong Il was in a very weak position with the economic collapse and famine.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 16:27
|
|
|
I don't think there's so much a "doves vs. hawks" divide as a "cozy up to China and try limited market reforms vs. holy poo poo don't you remember what happened when the USSR did that do you want to get us all killed" divide. Or, more properly I suppose, a "modernize like China vs. stay the course and go out own way" divide. That all gets muddled in with feudal power politics, since Kim Jong-un looks to be just as ruthless as his father in executing real or suspected enemies, but I think that divide is there. It's not necessarily "pro-West vs. anti-West", but a more baseline calculation of whether they need to modernize to survive on a long-term timescale.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 18:11
|
|
|
fishmech posted:Except Juche was invented in the 50s and 60s by Kim Il Sung trying to have a Local Socialism to match what other Soviet-orbit countries did. And also North Korea had lost most of their major trade partners through the 1980s - in the 70s it had still been common for North Korea to trade with much of Western Europe, South America and Africa, not just Eastern Bloc countries, and not just the Soviets. But during the 80s, the backdealing they did eliminated most Western trade and even a huge chunk of Eastern Bloc trade. And people in those countries certainly weren't going to come back to North Korea for trade after that. More precisely, in 1990, Juche was recodified into "socialism of our style" as a way laying out a way of more or less autarky. Let's be clear here, that while they did burn many bridges in the 1970s and 80s, that by the late 1980s it was very clear that the Soviet Union (and its satellites) couldn't sustain an independent trade system due to the fallout caused by low oil prices (ie Saudi production) and this externally limited their options as well. Songun was the realization that they had no close allies, and that the West had a towering technological advantage over them. You can see the lineage between that realization and the development of an ICBM.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 18:50
|
|
|
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/01/politics/lindsey-graham-north-korea-donald-trump-white-house/index.html seems trump is cool with starting a war as long as the thousands/millions die "over there".
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 18:54
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6hRDS3LvQQ
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 18:55
|
|
|
yeah pretty much. i have a really bad thing bad about all this poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 19:00
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Also, the entire subtext with Juche, was that North Korea lost its major trade partners in the 1990s, and was forced to rely on Autarky to stay a float. If anything the same thing happened to Cuba without the fanfare. To Beijing and Moscow, it was a declaration of impartial friendship. To other Communist nations it towed the line on practicing socialism in one country. To the Non-Aligned Movement and sympathetic Western leftists it was a declaration of socialist autarky. Domestically, it became synonymous with a deepening of the Kim personality cult thanks to Kim Jong Il's work in the propaganda corps, which was part of positioning himself as the only logical successor to Kim il Sung. It's really weird to see American tankies still pimping the Juche Idea, because to get excited about chuche sasang as an ideology you have to, like, not know that Tito existed. (And, preferably, not actually read more than a few paragraphs of Juche Thought.)
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 19:59
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/01/politics/lindsey-graham-north-korea-donald-trump-white-house/index.html I think it's far more likely that someone convinces him that we can pull off limited airstrikes on the DPRK like we've done with Syria, and that ultimately ends up leading to a real war since the Kim regime almost certainly isn't resilient enough to shrug off that kind of embarrassment without a response.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:07
|
|
|
Halloween Jack posted:It's really weird to see American tankies still pimping the Juche Idea, because to get excited about chuche sasang as an ideology you have to, like, not know that Tito existed. (And, preferably, not actually read more than a few paragraphs of Juche Thought.) I would say the reason is simply that North Korea is still a functioning state at least explicitly practicing an ideology (practice is another thing), while pretty much the rest of the second world moved on to strict state capitalism and Yugoslavia is in a lot of little pieces. That said, in reality even North Korea is moving in state capitalist direction and there are satellite photos of markets popping up even in the provinces.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:13
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/01/politics/lindsey-graham-north-korea-donald-trump-white-house/index.html gently caress. So now we know where Trump stands on this. I really want to be optimistic about this. But between the US, NK, and China not budging on their stances, the US and NK continuously escalating, NK's timetable on their capabilities (if they don't already have the ability), and the US military stating that they're only giving diplomacy a few more months, I just don't see an outcome here where nuclear war isn't going to break out.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:14
|
|
|
A sane statement from this administration is surprising. I prefer this over a loving lunatic senator saying he's cool with people dying. https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/892457560275435520
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:14
|
|
|
Tim Whatley posted:A sane statement from this administration is surprising. I prefer this over a loving lunatic senator saying he's cool with people dying. This may be the most reasonable and measured statement to come out of this administration on any topic.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:18
|
|
|
.
sincx fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:27
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 18, 2024 18:41 |
|
|
sincx posted:Okay, say USAF B1s bomb NK's enrichment facility and launch complex. SK is given a heads-up 1 hour before the bombs drop, China is told 5 minutes before the bombs drop. The US makes an announcement immediately after the bombing saying that there will be no other action taken unless NK does another ICBM launch or nuclear test. I just can't imagine NK would do much in response. As much as they puff their feathers, they don't want war either.
|
|
#
?
Aug 1, 2017 20:42
|
|
