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Cicero posted:Did you miss the part where I said "Looking at the system as a whole, costs are reduced." Yes, obviously Uber itself would have higher costs than now, but this would be offset by capturing more of (well, all of) the fare. My point is that, if you had, say, a vertically integrated taxi company in 2017 vs in the future where self-driving electric taxis exists, costs would definitely be lower in the latter time. you're assuming that uber can cover its costs by charging competitive rates. so far this doesn't seem to be the case, uber is undercharging customers while possibly not paying drivers enough to cover the wear on their vehicles. there's a reason most taxis are kind of beat up there's also no way to predict the true cost of a self driving car fleet. what if they tend to get into accidents with human drivers? what about the cost of cleaning the insides as dozens of different people with varying standards of cleanliness use them throughout the day?
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Aug 1, 2017 17:14
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JailTrump posted:LOL Enjoy getting your suitcases robbed on the bus while heading to the airport on your trip to france and missing the flight meaning you lose out not only on the thousands of dollars of stuff in your suitcases but also the thousands of dollars you spent on booking hotels/flights/etc... I mean my local airport has a metro line running to it. And I dunno how your bus works but you can stand next to your luggage if you want to.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:15
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OwlFancier posted:I mean my local airport has a metro line running to it. "what kind of bourgeois racist scum takes public transportation  "
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Aug 1, 2017 17:19
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I mean I genuinely don't know how US public transport works but the worst trouble I ever had on the bus was when the driver spent the entire trip yelling at an old woman because she wandered out in front of the bus to tell him to open the door so she could get on while he was waiting in traffic before the stop. Oh and some of the passengers smell like pee sometimes. Otherwise they're quite pleasant. Also hang on who owns thousands of dollars worth of stuff to take on holiday with them?
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Aug 1, 2017 17:23
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fishmech posted:No, looking at the system as a whole, costs are not reduced. Capturing all of a low fare does not make up for billions of dollars in investment required to reach that point, quote:especially since by definition a self-driving electric car fleet is much more expensive than existing, non-self-driving, gasoline cars already in use, which can be had in usable condition for sometimes as little as a few thousand dollars. quote:The whole point, dear, is that it's actually massively, massively expensive to run a national level, let alone international like Uber tries to do. No one can really afford to spend billions of dollars setting up and running a self-driving car fleet just to make it up $10 at a time from taxi fares.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:24
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OwlFancier posted:I mean I genuinely don't know how US public transport works but the worst trouble I ever had on the bus was when the driver spent the entire trip yelling at an old woman because she wandered out in front of the bus to tell him to open the door so she could get on while he was waiting in traffic before the stop. Uh, a laptop and a phone alone will push you over 1k.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:26
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Lol if you own a laptop that doesn't run windows ME and you found it in a bin.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:28
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Everyone should take public transport to the airport. I take it nearly every time I go and it's usually faster than taking a car because the airport around O'Hare is terrible. I also have to drive near O'Hare on my way to work and every Monday is god awful as I sit in traffic at 6 AM surrounded by taxis/Ubers/limos dropping people off for their Monday morning commuter flight. TAKE THE TRAIN PEOPLE! You would already be there.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:28
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If you have friends you can get a friend to drop you off at the airport, that's the best way. I usually get a friend to drop me off half way then take the train or bus the rest of the way. Also only travel with carry-on so no bulky suitcases to deal with which is nice, no waiting at the airport for your baggage to come off or risk it being sent to some other country. Speaking of travel and retail apparently the whole souvenir business in a lot of places isn't doing as well as people traveling want "authentic experiences" and not lovely little tourist trap stores. With no extra space to take stuff home with us we never really buy anything when we travel, contrasted to my parent's generation who could easily fill up a whole extra suitcase with things they bought on their trip. I think a part of that too is that anyone can pretty much get anything from anywhere these days, the things aren't special, the actual trip is. Every city is different though in regard to airport transit. Sometimes there's like a metro line or express bus that goes right there, sometimes there's absolutely nothing or it's a stressful horror show to get there any way other than driving/taxi and what's $40 or what ever if it saves you an hour meaning you only need to leave home at 6am instead of 5:00am.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:28
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I'm glad that we are having chats about Uber, self driving cars, public transportation, the very concept of health codes for food preparation in the coffee thread.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:28
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Baronjutter posted:If you have friends you can get a friend to drop you off at the airport, that's the best way. I usually get a friend to drop me off half way then take the train or bus the rest of the way. Also only travel with carry-on so no bulky suitcases to deal with which is nice, no waiting at the airport for your baggage to come off or risk it being sent to some other country. Speaking of travel and retail apparently the whole souvenir business in a lot of places isn't doing as well as people traveling want "authentic experiences" and not lovely little tourist trap stores. With no extra space to take stuff home with us we never really buy anything when we travel, contrasted to my parent's generation who could easily fill up a whole extra suitcase with things they bought on their trip. I think a part of that too is that anyone can pretty much get anything from anywhere these days, the things aren't special, the actual trip is. Also lol if you can fit souvenirs in your 1 bedroom hovel that you, as a millenial, live in.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:29
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Bird in a Blender posted:Everyone should take public transport to the airport. I take it nearly every time I go and it's usually faster than taking a car because the airport around O'Hare is terrible. I also have to drive near O'Hare on my way to work and every Monday is god awful as I sit in traffic at 6 AM surrounded by taxis/Ubers/limos dropping people off for their Monday morning commuter flight. TAKE THE TRAIN PEOPLE! You would already be there. Counterpoint: Most people don't live in big cities in the US and most people do not have access to functional public transportation much less safe public transportation.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:30
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Bird in a Blender posted:Everyone should take public transport to the airport. I take it nearly every time I go and it's usually faster than taking a car because the airport around O'Hare is terrible. I also have to drive near O'Hare on my way to work and every Monday is god awful as I sit in traffic at 6 AM surrounded by taxis/Ubers/limos dropping people off for their Monday morning commuter flight. TAKE THE TRAIN PEOPLE! You would already be there. Having taken the train to/from O'Hare every time I fly there I wholeheartedly endorse this. It's pretty nice! The only reason I don't take the Metro from National or Dulles is because of where my house is/there is no Metro from Dulles (yet).
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Aug 1, 2017 17:30
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Cicero posted:Yes, self-driving electric cars will be somewhat more expensive to acquire, but they'll also be cheaper to operate, possibly MUCH cheaper to operate. you really can't know this. there's a lot of operational costs to a vehicle - cleaning, maintenance, refueling - that is assumed for free by the driver/owner. you're going to have to pay custodians to take care of your self driving vehicles Cicero posted:Wow, this is real dumb. Most drivers and companies don't buy crappy old beaters to use as taxis, so I'm not sure why you would even bring that up. i see it all the time in atlanta. in immigrant neighborhoods there's a bunch of small time taxi companies that use old minivans
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Aug 1, 2017 17:30
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Getting vaguely back on topic wasn't airport retail one of the last big growth markets?
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Aug 1, 2017 17:30
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boner confessor posted:you're assuming that uber can cover its costs by charging competitive rates. so far this doesn't seem to be the case, uber is undercharging customers while possibly not paying drivers enough to cover the wear on their vehicles. there's a reason most taxis are kind of beat up quote:there's also no way to predict the true cost of a self driving car fleet. what if they tend to get into accidents with human drivers? quote:what about the cost of cleaning the insides as dozens of different people with varying standards of cleanliness use them throughout the day? Cicero fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Aug 1, 2017 |
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Aug 1, 2017 17:31
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JailTrump posted:Counterpoint: Most people don't live in big cities in the US Demonstrably, factually incorrect.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:31
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hobbesmaster posted:Getting vaguely back on topic wasn't airport retail one of the last big growth markets? The airports know this and charge insane leases now, which squeezes out some of the more actually useful stores and replaces them with "luxury" or over priced poo poo. If I'm at an airport I want travel related poo poo that I maybe forgot. Some sunscreen, a phone charging cord, travel guides. I don't understand why anyone would go to the airport to buy a rolex watch or some other ridiculous luxury brand poo poo, but I guess they do since that's mostly all I see anymore. Airport as a high-end mall is absolutely a thing and it seems to be doing well.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:33
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Baronjutter posted:The airports know this and charge insane leases now, which squeezes out some of the more actually useful stores and replaces them with "luxury" or over priced poo poo. If I'm at an airport I want travel related poo poo that I maybe forgot. Some sunscreen, a phone charging cord, travel guides. I don't understand why anyone would go to the airport to buy a rolex watch or some other ridiculous luxury brand poo poo, but I guess they do since that's mostly all I see anymore. Airport as a high-end mall is absolutely a thing and it seems to be doing well. MSP has Tumi and Johnston and Murphy stores - "poo poo my shoes/bag was hosed up" seems to get them decent traffic. hobbesmaster fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Aug 1, 2017 |
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Aug 1, 2017 17:34
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Cicero posted:If costs are lower than what a 'competitive rate' is becomes lower too. And the issue isn't that they're not paying drivers enough to cover the wear on their vehicles, but that after covering the wear on vehicles the effective wage for the driver is pretty low. But if you don't actually need a driver... you're assuming costs are lower, but this assumption isn't based on any facts since self driving cars don't exist yet let alone fleets of them Cicero posted:What, and existing taxis don't? Since crashes are nearly always the result of human error, with self-driving cars at least you'll be able to mostly eliminate the possibly of the 'driver' of the taxi itself causing an accident. self driving cars get in accidents at a decent rate, it's just usually humans hitting them because self driving cars don't follow expected rules of the road. maybe the technology will get better, maybe the technology will be mostly limited to grandma level driving out of fear of liability. it's entirely possible self driving cars will not be capable of driving past the speed limit and will follow every road rule to the fullest, making them less safe because they don't drive as conventional humans would expect. either way, you've still got a damaged vehicle Cicero posted:Again, this doesn't seem terribly different from existing taxis. If a customer leaves a mess, likely the next customer will report it, the company will then send them a new vehicle while the dirty one is sent to a nearby cleaning station, and the customer who caused the mess is charged a cleaning. I mean, that's just a guess, but again, it's not like existing taxis don't have this problem. or the driver cleans up right then and there instead of having to take it back to a janitorial facility. or maybe you get some creepy bronze tier pricing where you expect your bargain rate customers to provide labor in compensation for a discounted ride neither one of you are wrong here, you're just talking past each other. crappy suburban sprawl with no transit counts as 'urban' for the purposes of this study, and on average in american metropolitan areas the majority of the people live in suburbs
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Aug 1, 2017 17:35
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Also if you want to make crazy money as a food service worker, work someplace with tips in an airport. My friend worked in a lovely local burger chain and managed to get the highly sought after airport location where he tended bar. Travelers want to have a drink or two and tip well. He was making about $30 an hour after factoring in tips. The prices at the airport are already inflated and a lot of these people are leaving on vacation or coming back from a stressful business trip, but something about airports seems to make people tip like crazy.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:38
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Baronjutter posted:Also if you want to make crazy money as a food service worker, work someplace with tips in an airport. My friend worked in a lovely local burger chain and managed to get the highly sought after airport location where he tended bar. Travelers want to have a drink or two and tip well. He was making about $30 an hour after factoring in tips. The prices at the airport are already inflated and a lot of these people are leaving on vacation or coming back from a stressful business trip, but something about airports seems to make people tip like crazy. $30/hr is pretty normal if you're a good bartender in a decently busy bar
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Aug 1, 2017 17:41
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Cicero posted:The system as a whole already requires billions of dollars of investment to provide current taxi service for the cars we have right now, it's just usually done via individual drivers or relatively small companies rather than by a large, vertically integrated corporation. Yes, self-driving electric cars will be somewhat more expensive to acquire, but they'll also be cheaper to operate, possibly MUCH cheaper to operate. But it's much fewer billions of dollars, since it doesn't require new cars nor particularly high end cars to operate. Switching to electric self-driving cars means paying a hefty cost premium versus say, a 2012 Toyota Camry or a ex-cop Crown Vic. There's also very little reason to assume that self-driving electric cars that are open to the public will inherently be much cheaper to operate. They still require all sorts of cleaning, they still require maintenance, they will also require extra maintenance of all the sensor arrays they must have to properly drive. Uh, I take it you haven't actually seen some of the cars with Lyft and Uber stickers on them in major cities? Or the various small time taxi operators in others? There's plenty of older beat up cars in service there. Self-driving cars are going to be more expensive for a long time to come. They inherently require extra equipment a normal car doesn't have. And similarly, batteries are expensive, so electric cars can be expected to cost more versus internal combustion for quite a while too.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:42
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boner confessor posted:you really can't know this. there's a lot of operational costs to a vehicle - cleaning, maintenance, refueling - that is assumed for free by the driver/owner. you're going to have to pay custodians to take care of your self driving vehicles quote:i see it all the time in atlanta. in immigrant neighborhoods there's a bunch of small time taxi companies that use old minivans
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Aug 1, 2017 17:42
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Baronjutter posted:Also if you want to make crazy money as a food service worker, work someplace with tips in an airport. My friend worked in a lovely local burger chain and managed to get the highly sought after airport location where he tended bar. Travelers want to have a drink or two and tip well. He was making about $30 an hour after factoring in tips. The prices at the airport are already inflated and a lot of these people are leaving on vacation or coming back from a stressful business trip, but something about airports seems to make people tip like crazy. I always tip even more crazily than usual at the airport because I figure the waiters don't have access to speed/coke because they have to go through security and I have a lot of sympathy for that plight.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:44
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Cicero posted:Granted, but again, economies of scale should mean that it's effectively cheaper for a corporation to have their own specialized cleaners/mechanics than for a driver to handle cleaning and maintenance themselves. Those costs are already present in the current system, they're just somewhat hidden. considering uber currently pays very little if anything for these hidden costs i dont see how you can conclude that when they do assume the burden of these costs, in whatever form they take, that it would still tally up to be lower than their current cost except via repeated appeals to 'economy of scale' Cicero posted:That's why I said most. But if you have data showing that most drivers buy used cars that cost 3 or 4k to use as taxis I'd love to see it.  you advanced the argument friendo, you can support it. or noti mean the stereotypical taxi is "used police car that hit 100k miles and is more costly to insure" so... fishmech posted:Self-driving cars are going to be more expensive for a long time to come. They inherently require extra equipment a normal car doesn't have. And similarly, batteries are expensive, so electric cars can be expected to cost more versus internal combustion for quite a while too. i'm also curious to see how insurance on self driving vehicles is going to work out boner confessor fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Aug 1, 2017 |
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Aug 1, 2017 17:45
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The other thing to remember is that you won't need 150,000 autonomous cars to replicate the coverage of 150,000 human drivers. Even if the cost of a operating an autonomous car was exactly the same as the cost of paying a human to drive a car, you'd still make more per vehicle using an autonomous car since it wouldn't need to eat/sleep/get sick/see the kids/etc. Not having to deal with a human's downtime will automatically make an autonomous cab company more profitable than the equivalent cab company with human drivers because it shouldn't need as many vehicles to make the same fares.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:47
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Self-driving cars should be talked about as a theoretical at best. Right now we have glorified Roombas, which can only operate in controlled urban environments. Which may work for taxis, mind, but it means mass adoption of them is a long way away, especially anywhere it snows. Or even rains a lot.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:47
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boner confessor posted:$30/hr is pretty normal if you're a good bartender in a decently busy bar Yea, but an airport has steady customers all day long. Most bars are only busy at night, and weekends obviously. You can see people in airport bars from 6 AM to the last flight of the night.
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Aug 1, 2017 17:48
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boner confessor posted:you're assuming costs are lower, but this assumption isn't based on any facts since self driving cars don't exist yet let alone fleets of them quote:self driving cars get in accidents at a decent rate, it's just usually humans hitting them because self driving cars don't follow expected rules of the road. maybe the technology will get better, maybe the technology will be mostly limited to grandma level driving out of fear of liability. it's entirely possible self driving cars will not be capable of driving past the speed limit and will follow every road rule to the fullest, making them less safe because they don't drive as conventional humans would expect. either way, you've still got a damaged vehicle quote:or the driver cleans up right then and there instead of having to take it back to a janitorial facility. or maybe you get some creepy bronze tier pricing where you expect your bargain rate customers to provide labor in compensation for a discounted ride
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Aug 1, 2017 17:48
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GamingHyena posted:an autonomous car [] wouldn't need to eat/sleep/get sick/see the kids/etc. Oh no. I was imagining they'd have a union and daycare for their tiny car babies. (car pups? car kits? car cubs?)
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Aug 1, 2017 17:49
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GamingHyena posted:The other thing to remember is that you won't need 150,000 autonomous cars to replicate the coverage of 150,000 human drivers. Even if the cost of a operating an autonomous car was exactly the same as the cost of paying a human to drive a car, you'd still make more per vehicle using an autonomous car since it wouldn't need to eat/sleep/get sick/see the kids/etc. Not having to deal with a human's downtime will automatically make an autonomous cab company more profitable than the equivalent cab company with human drivers because it shouldn't need as many vehicles to make the same fares. there's a couple problems with this argument you're assuming a constant demand for trips. trip generation is highly skewed towards specific times of day, this is why rush hour is a thing. there just aren't as many people demanding ubers at 4am as there are at 4pm. so this means that downtime doesn't matter so much there's also an assumption here that some level of trip demand goes unsatisfied for lack of drivers. it's difficult to prove this assumption true without specific study of an individual area because trip generation/consumption is heavily based on local conditions and subject to the triple convergence shift - if people can't make a trip by a specific mode on a specific route at a specific time, they can change their mode, route, or time to satisfy their need. in this case, mode being taxi versus some other transportation method
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Aug 1, 2017 17:51
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hobbesmaster posted:Uh, a laptop and a phone alone will push you over 1k. it's not like i disagree with you per se but usually you keep your phone in your pocket rather then in a bag, so it shouldn't be lost or stolen easily
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Aug 1, 2017 17:51
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boner confessor posted:considering uber currently pays very little if anything for these hidden costs i dont see how you can conclude that when they do assume the burden of these costs, in whatever form they take, that it would still tally up to be lower than their current cost except via repeated appeals to 'economy of scale' quote:
quote:i'm also curious to see how insurance on self driving vehicles is going to work out fishmech posted:But it's much fewer billions of dollars, since it doesn't require new cars nor particularly high end cars to operate. Switching to electric self-driving cars means paying a hefty cost premium versus say, a 2012 Toyota Camry or a ex-cop Crown Vic. There's also very little reason to assume that self-driving electric cars that are open to the public will inherently be much cheaper to operate. They still require all sorts of cleaning, they still require maintenance, they will also require extra maintenance of all the sensor arrays they must have to properly drive. quote:Uh, I take it you haven't actually seen some of the cars with Lyft and Uber stickers on them in major cities? Or the various small time taxi operators in others? There's plenty of older beat up cars in service there. quote:Self-driving cars are going to be more expensive for a long time to come. They inherently require extra equipment a normal car doesn't have. And similarly, batteries are expensive, so electric cars can be expected to cost more versus internal combustion for quite a while too. Cicero fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Aug 1, 2017 |
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Aug 1, 2017 17:55
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Bird in a Blender posted:Yea, but an airport has steady customers all day long. Most bars are only busy at night, and weekends obviously. You can see people in airport bars from 6 AM to the last flight of the night. this is why bartenders try to only work at night, or on the weekends. getting day shifts is newbie work, or punishment Cicero posted:Yes, I'm making what's called a 'prediction', perhaps you've heard of them. prediction, bullshit, same thing Cicero posted:Self-driving cars are still a weird thing and the novelty is contributing to the crash rate. I'd expect them to become somewhat more human/aggressive before they actually launch to consumers such that they become more predictable. Yes, another guess, although IIRC Google already said they've worked on exactly this topic ('bending' the rules of the road to fit in with people better). i expect they won't, for liability purposes. nobody wants to make a technology more dangerous and aggressive before they release it to the market Cicero posted:I mean, depends on the big the mess is, right? In any case if you have to send it to a facility, well there's no driver so it's not like you're paying someone during that lost time. And yes the car is unavailable for fares during the cleaning, but overall self-driving car availability will pretty obviously be much higher if you don't need a driver. the costs would be the same depending on if there's a driver or not. a manually operated car with no fare is going to incur the same level of fixed cost as a driverless car with no fare, so that's kind of a pointless argument also i don't see why self driving car availability will be higher if you dont need a driver. there's no shortage of taxi drivers, the scarcity is in the vehicles, which is the same issue self driving fleets will face. both of whom are going to be responsive to potential customer demand, not sheer number of vehicles you can put on the road. neither a taxi company or a self driving fleet is going to have scores of vehicles available at 4 am because it's a money losing proposition Cicero posted:I mean, those costs are just effectively rolled into what they're paid to carry people around; if there were no capital or maintenance costs, Uber could get away with paying drivers even less than they do now (and you're kidding yourself if you think they wouldn't do so). i agree if things cost less then costs would be lower, yes Cicero posted:No, that was fishmech bringing up that regular gas-powered cars can be had for cheap. Which is obviously true, but it's only actually relevant to his larger point if that's what most taxi drivers are doing. So if he or you wants to back that up, feel free to do so. ok pal, i mean, i can see most taxis in my area are used vehicles, so i guess we'll have to agree to perceive different realities on this one boner confessor fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Aug 1, 2017 |
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Aug 1, 2017 17:56
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boner confessor posted:i expect they won't, for liability purposes. nobody wants to make a technology more dangerous and aggressive before they release it to the market quote:So much for the virtues of defensive driving. quote:the costs would be the same depending on if there's a driver or not. a manually operated car with no fare is going to incur the same level of fixed cost as a driverless car with no fare, so that's kind of a pointless argument quote:also i don't see why self driving car availability will be higher if you dont need a driver. there's no shortage of taxi drivers, the scarcity is in the vehicles, which is the same issue self driving fleets will face. quote:i agree if things cost less then costs would be lower, yes quote:ok pal, i mean, i can see most taxis in my area are used vehicles, so i guess we'll have to agree to perceive different realities on this one
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Aug 1, 2017 18:09
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http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_book.pdfquote:The average age of a taxi vehicle is 3.3 years
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Aug 1, 2017 18:13
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Cicero posted:They already are: http://fortune.com/2015/09/29/google-self-driving-cars-humans/ according to a two year old press blurb with no details, maybe. given that the government has broad regulatory power to force firms to make vehicles drive as safely as possible - something you can't really force people to do - i don't see how this would bear out. pretty cherry picky on a speculative technology that doesn't exist yet, so i'm less than convinced Cicero posted:Except that the driverless car will be able to be on the road for longer, even if it has to spend slightly longer at a cleaning station or whatever. this doesn't address what i said at all? you can swap drivers into a different vehicle when their shift is over. a manually operated vehicle doesn't need to rest or anything Cicero posted:It's not like every car is out there on the road literally every peak hour of every day of the year, y'know. you're starting to contradict yourself now, see your previous argument about self driving cars staying out longer. now they don't have to? again doesn't really address what i'm saying, which is that the scarcity of taxi trip demand satisfaction is in vehicles, not in drivers, meaning the same constraints would apply to self driving fleets (which you could easily slap medallions on or something) Cicero posted:The point is that current fares are higher because of the need to cover capital and maintenance costs, so those are costs are accounted for currently, just indirectly. haha yes i agree uber is not properly accounting for their costs, making estimates of theoretical future technology even more variable Cicero posted:Nice try; fishmech didn't say 'used' he said they could be had for as little as a few thousand dollars. Pretty huge difference between a car that's a few years old vs one that's 15+. i get the feeling now you're just arguing for the sake of argument. whatever. i've made my argument - you can't speculate on the economics of self driving fleets and there's no reason to believe they're even economically feasible. it's really just disney's higway of tomorrow updated for the transistor age https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwA7c_rNbJE
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Aug 1, 2017 18:28
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JailTrump posted:LOL Enjoy getting your suitcases robbed on the bus while heading to the airport on your trip to france and missing the flight meaning you lose out not only on the thousands of dollars of stuff in your suitcases but also the thousands of dollars you spent on booking hotels/flights/etc... I'm so sorry that you live in the cartel infested towns of Mexico.
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Aug 1, 2017 18:29
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Does theft on buses even happen? They all have security cameras, you need to pay to get on and presumably anything you steal you have to do so when you can get off, otherwise you're in a confined space with a bunch of people who are going to be pissed at you for disturbing their commute.
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Aug 1, 2017 18:35
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