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Spoeank posted:Dispatch from 49ers open practice: remove Joe Williams from your draft boards entirely. Looks bad?
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Aug 5, 2017 22:50
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Spoeank posted:Dispatch from 49ers open practice: remove Joe Williams from your draft boards entirely. I love that people thought he was gonna be better than Hyde.
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Aug 5, 2017 22:52
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Carlos Hyde looked incredibly good. They also targeted him a ton so he may be a PPR value, too. He played like he had something to prove. Twice he refused to come off the field for Breida during scrimmage. Breida looked to be the second best RB, and it wasn't close. Hightower only played a little bit. Bibbs outplayed Williams who just repeatedly got caught in the wash
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Aug 5, 2017 23:12
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Also my real hot take is that Goodwin is gonna be a poor man's Taylor Gabriel
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Aug 5, 2017 23:21
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Spoeank posted:Carlos Hyde looked incredibly good. They also targeted him a ton so he may be a PPR value, too. He played like he had something to prove. Twice he refused to come off the field for Breida during scrimmage. I'm constantly stunned when I read how down the 49ers are on Hyde. Aside from injury, he's been pretty good and he's still young.
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Aug 5, 2017 23:22
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Any thoughts on Sports Injury Predictor? They have things like Hyde having an 80% chance to miss at least two quarters with an injury, and an expectation that he misses around 3 games.
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Aug 6, 2017 04:25
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Any thoughts on Sports Injury Predictor? They have things like Hyde having an 80% chance to miss at least two quarters with an injury, and an expectation that he misses around 3 games. I put little stock in it. The disconnect between probability of injury, which sort of follows our expectations (Watkins is a high injury risk, for example), and expected games missed (which by eye looks very little correlated with probability of injury) makes me think the model ends up relying on some relatively dumb heuristics. That is, Danny Woodhead is one of the least likely to get injured RBs, but also one of the highest predicted number of games missed. Is it just latching on to the fact that he missed almost all of last year?
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Aug 6, 2017 04:41
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FF heads on twitter are calling Reed a buy low/value draft pick because he's already hurt.
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Aug 6, 2017 05:51
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RVProfootballer posted:I put little stock in it. The disconnect between probability of injury, which sort of follows our expectations (Watkins is a high injury risk, for example), and expected games missed (which by eye looks very little correlated with probability of injury) makes me think the model ends up relying on some relatively dumb heuristics. That is, Danny Woodhead is one of the least likely to get injured RBs, but also one of the highest predicted number of games missed. Is it just latching on to the fact that he missed almost all of last year? Exactly. There's no predicting index used in sports medicine for injuries. Way too many variables. There is something in saying that a player who faces more contact has more chances to injure himself and that RB's just naturally get injured a lot.
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Aug 6, 2017 06:20
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They need an index that shows how much of a baby a football player is when hurt. Will he man up or is he gonna miss time and gently caress up my god damned fantasy playoff run! 
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Aug 6, 2017 07:49
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Also anyone with a poo poo ton of concussions, like reed, is potentially one concussion away from ending their career... whether they think so or not.
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Aug 6, 2017 07:49
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Jordan Reed + Smart TE streaming = Top 3 TE numbers in your league
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Aug 6, 2017 08:07
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Every player is injury prone until they aren't. When was the last time Murray has missed a game? People used to assume he was a lock to miss half the season.
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Aug 6, 2017 13:37
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I agree that the missed games value seems like BS. Supposedly the probability of injury is based on the statistics specific to each player's injury history.
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Aug 6, 2017 14:46
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Tiptoes posted:Jordan Reed + Smart TE streaming = Top 3 TE numbers in your league This is the type of equation for the #5 or 6 TE off the board, not #3, which he's still going as. Plus the toe thing is likely to see us fast forwarding to January 2018 and a Rotoworld blurb about how Reed was "never really healthy," as the toe bothered him all year. If you want an early TE so bad just get Zeus.
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Aug 6, 2017 15:09
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I agree that the missed games value seems like BS. Supposedly the probability of injury is based on the statistics specific to each player's injury history. So they're saying that when X player got Y injury they missed Z games. That also runs into the wall of 'every persons' body is unique and different' which leads us to this: Sataere posted:They need an index that shows how much of a baby a football player is when hurt. Will he man up or is he gonna miss time and gently caress up my god damned fantasy playoff run! I think this is the most deciding factor in an athlete's recovery. There are plenty of guys who have ran on torn ACL's for an entire game and produced stats, they just horribly gently caress their knee up after. Then there are guys who sit if they bruise their ittle bittle ribs (AJ Green two years ago you loving pussy [sorry it just cost me my league and he was perfectly fine a few weeks later]). Hyde is definitely one of the latter. I owned him all last year and felt like he'd get injured at any moment because A) he runs into all contact and never misses guys ever and B) he babies his injuries because he's from Ohio State and every buckeye is a baby
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Aug 6, 2017 17:23
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Carlos Hyde ran on a broken foot for like a month dude
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Aug 6, 2017 17:25
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Spoeank posted:Carlos Hyde ran on a broken foot for like a month dude He's about to be 27 and he's sat out like 14 games due to injury, and not all of them were serious. Sprains and bruises. Yeah he had a bunch of concussions and tore his MCL last year but he sits a lot due to his running style.
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Aug 6, 2017 17:30
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Players always want to play. Narratives claiming otherwise are toxic and horrible lies promoted by owners and coaches who don't give a poo poo about what happens to players once their use has been squeezed out of them.
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Aug 6, 2017 17:30
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Doltos posted:So they're saying that when X player got Y injury they missed Z games. That also runs into the wall of 'every persons' body is unique and different' which leads us to this: Their analysis appears to be a bit more complicated than that. Incidentally according to their analysis there's no such thing as an "injury prone" player. It's mostly a question of time since the last injury and the number of touches the player has. I agree that it's hard to put metrics to player willlpower, but I do think it's an interesting exercise. Their games missed model only had an R^2 value of 0.271 which I believe is pretty poor. https://twitter.com/DataScientistFF/status/890797886815879168 Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Aug 6, 2017 |
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Aug 6, 2017 18:23
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Daltos gonna Daltos
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Aug 6, 2017 19:05
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Spoeank posted:This is the type of equation for the #5 or 6 TE off the board, not #3, which he's still going as. Plus the toe thing is likely to see us fast forwarding to January 2018 and a Rotoworld blurb about how Reed was "never really healthy," as the toe bothered him all year.
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Aug 6, 2017 20:02
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Tiptoes posted:Jordan Reed + Smart TE streaming = Top 3 TE numbers in your league Streaming TEs in the playoffs when Reed is out with hot brains = a bad TE and a wasted draft pick Unless you're doing best ball, DFS, or some kind of weird Roto football league, there's literally no reason to draft a guy that's going to maybe play 9 games
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Aug 6, 2017 20:11
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Streaming TEs in the playoffs when Reed is out with hot brains = a bad TE and a wasted draft pick Week 14 3/52/1 Week 15 7/72/1 Week 16 8/85/2 Gronk's owner was streaming last year. Greg Olsen's owner was probably streaming as he was on a terrible cold streak going into the playoffs. Literally anyone but Kelce's owner was most likely exploring any options they had at that point. Semi-finals week last year was an absolute shitshow for TE scoring and you would've been better off with Dion Sims than any elite TE1. Everyone should be streaming in the playoffs if another TE match-up is the slightest bit better. And I already understand that my playoff roster is likely going to look a lot different than my drafted roster. My drafted roster is to get me to the playoffs so if players help me do that before injury cripples them, then I don't consider those wasted picks. Reed leads all TEs in PPGs over the last two years so he's a big asset in my lineups whenever he plays.
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Aug 6, 2017 20:42
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Their analysis appears to be a bit more complicated than that. Incidentally according to their analysis there's no such thing as an "injury prone" player. It's mostly a question of time since the last injury and the number of touches the player has. I agree that it's hard to put metrics to player willlpower, but I do think it's an interesting exercise. Fuckin' lol, the 95% confidence limit on their McCluster prediction is "20 games missed" -- more games than exist in a season. Their error bars are absolutely enormous. I appreciate the vague attempt at rigorous evaluation of their own predictions, but all it shows is that their predictions are utterly worthless.
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Aug 6, 2017 21:03
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Actually the 20 games for McCluster to miss is right because he shouldn't play in preseason let alone regular season
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Aug 6, 2017 21:12
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Their analysis appears to be a bit more complicated than that. Incidentally according to their analysis there's no such thing as an "injury prone" player. It's mostly a question of time since the last injury and the number of touches the player has. I agree that it's hard to put metrics to player willlpower, but I do think it's an interesting exercise. Their p value is probably .05 like everyone else so ya that means their model isn't significant.
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Aug 6, 2017 21:17
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Goons please make me feel better about this team I drafted that I feel lovely about. 12 team PPR keeper league (2RB 2WR and flex). I kept AB and Evans at the cost of my first and second round picks. RBs were *flying* off the board and instead of force feeding myself Bilal Powell or Spencer Ware I took guys like Kelce and Brees. QB- Drew Brees RB- Robert Kelly RB- Jonathan Stewart WR- Antonio Brown WR- Mike Evans FLEX- Golden Tate TE- Travis Kelce D/ST- K- B- John Brown B- James White B- Jeremy Hill B- Thomas Rawls B- Robert Woods B- Shane Vereen B- Wendell Smallwood B- Chris Ivory B- Deandre Washington Thanks in advance.
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Aug 6, 2017 22:29
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Ty1990 posted:Goons please make me feel better about this team I drafted that I feel lovely about. 12 team PPR keeper league (2RB 2WR and flex). I kept AB and Evans at the cost of my first and second round picks. RBs were *flying* off the board and instead of force feeding myself Bilal Powell or Spencer Ware I took guys like Kelce and Brees. Your bench really sucks outside of John brown but your starting unit is very good.
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Aug 6, 2017 22:56
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Ty1990 posted:Goons please make me feel better about this team I drafted that I feel lovely about. 12 team PPR keeper league (2RB 2WR and flex). I kept AB and Evans at the cost of my first and second round picks. RBs were *flying* off the board and instead of force feeding myself Bilal Powell or Spencer Ware I took guys like Kelce and Brees. You drafted a league winning team but your bench is rear end. You need way better back up WRs and can probably drop some of those trash RBs like Wendell Smallwood.
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Aug 6, 2017 23:01
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Paging noted cheapskates Parmesan Basil, bobby2times, and Professor Moriarty to the GoonTier thread.
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Aug 6, 2017 23:47
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Appreciate the feedback guys. I got honeydicked on several occasions in the later rounds. Derrick Henry, Kenny Britt, and Frank Gore all went one pick before me and they would've made my bench look a lot better. I'll have to be a physcho on waivers to make up for it.
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Aug 7, 2017 00:44
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Ty1990 posted:Goons please make me feel better about this team I drafted that I feel lovely about. 12 team PPR keeper league (2RB 2WR and flex). I kept AB and Evans at the cost of my first and second round picks. RBs were *flying* off the board and instead of force feeding myself Bilal Powell or Spencer Ware I took guys like Kelce and Brees. I am very jealous of your receivers and TE, but I'd be worried about your RBs a little. There's a lot of question marks there. Definitely play that waiver wire.
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Aug 7, 2017 00:44
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Hey everybody I am going to be running Year 4 of the All IDP League that some of us have been doing. I've created a thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3829406 Please stop by if you want to do some crazy next level fantasy football. IDP is a ton of fun.
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Aug 7, 2017 04:43
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Ty1990 posted:Goons please make me feel better about this team I drafted that I feel lovely about. 12 team PPR keeper league (2RB 2WR and flex). I kept AB and Evans at the cost of my first and second round picks. RBs were *flying* off the board and instead of force feeding myself Bilal Powell or Spencer Ware I took guys like Kelce and Brees. You nailed your keeper picks and got "set and forget" starters at QB and TE, so that's a nice start. I also don't fault your draft strategy -- when an unexpected run happens, sometimes the smart play is to hang back and stick to your board, rather than panic-draft guys you're not inspired by just to fill out a position. People have cooled on Fat Rob and JStew as boring plodders getting pushed by rookies, but I think that's a bit overblown at the moment. Both guys should score enough goal-line plunges to be startable most weeks. Like others said, you have to beef up your RB depth, especially when JStew takes his annual 3-game injury absence. Ivory and Smallwood can be immediate cuts since they won't see the field any time soon. Keep Washington in your back pocket for if/when Marshawn breaks down, and troll the wire for any of those mythical young bucks overtaking vets in September. Overall, this lineup is more promising than you might realize. Work out the kinks early enough and you'll have an easy playoff team. Benne fucked around with this message at 10:02 on Aug 7, 2017 |
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Aug 7, 2017 09:59
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Season 4 is starting for the Free for All Dynasty League. 1. It's free 2. It's fun! 22 roster spots 15 keepers, no keeper penalties, and a 7 round draft every year. 3. Lots of folks have been in it for all 3 years despite an iffy year one with some kinks. Right now there is possibility of The Previous owners of this team has until the 10th to reserve their spot, then it goes to the waiting list on a first come first serve basis. Draft is a 7 round, non snaking (worst team gets 1st pick of each round, best team gets last pick of each round). KICKER 1.01 (Early Draft Pick!) QB Andrew Luck Andy Dalton RB Jonathan Stewart Javorius Allen Giovani Bernard Jordan Howard Tre Mason Branden Oliver WR Vincent Jackson Mike Wallace Mohamed Sanu Dez Bryant Chris Hogan Brandon LaFell Torrey Smith TE Charles Clay Jared Cook Austin Hooper K Chris Boswell Chandler Catanzaro D Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers EDIT: 1 team removed. Marshmallow Blue fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Aug 7, 2017 |
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Aug 7, 2017 15:37
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I'm last place! I'll be back for this year. Sorry I hadn't heard anything, I didn't realize a thread had been made. I already picked my keepers and everything though!
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Aug 7, 2017 15:54
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I hope some brave soul will try and turn 'Kicker 1.01' around. It needs a lot of help, but luckily there is a lot of talent in this year's rookie draft.
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Aug 7, 2017 16:08
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RCarr posted:I'm last place! I'll be back for this year. Sorry I hadn't heard anything, I didn't realize a thread had been made. I already picked my keepers and everything though! The old one got locked for being old and wrinkly. Happy you saw this post. CompeAnansi posted:I hope some brave soul will try and turn 'Kicker 1.01' around. It needs a lot of help, but luckily there is a lot of talent in this year's rookie draft. Yeah I haven't done the official draft order yet, but this team does have the #1 draft pick this year.
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Aug 7, 2017 18:26
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Quincy Enunwa got put on the IR with his neck injury.
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Aug 7, 2017 19:54
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