Current Events August 2017: A Song of Tweets and Fire

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Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

psydude posted:

A $15 minimum wage in the US probably won't increase prices, but it will definitely speed up adoption of automation of low-paying nonskilled labor.

that poo poo is already done. high paying, non-skilled labor is next on the chopping block. im looking at you, oilfield workers

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:22

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 05:50

boop the snoot: Jun 3, 2016

lightpole posted:

Economist July 8 or 15 had something on this using Seattle stuff and it wasn't terrible I think but I'm drinking in a Bremerhaven USS so I don't remember

quote:

Economists argue about minimum wages

Two studies of their impact in Seattle reach opposite conclusions

JUST what is the point of a minimum wage? It seems a straightforward enough question to answer. Minimum wages are designed to protect vulnerable workers who might otherwise lack the bargaining power to command a decent pay package. They are a means to limit severe poverty among those in work.

Yet they also attract opposition from critics who see wage minimums as price controls that discourage firms from hiring as many workers as they otherwise might. For decades, feuding camps of dismal scientists have tussled over whether the good done by minimum wages outweighs the bad. A series of recent minimum-wage increases in America will shine a light on that question and others as well. Indeed, the time may have come for economists to broaden their view of just what a minimum wage is meant to accomplish.

As voter frustration at stagnant pay has grown, politicians on the American left have spotted an opportunity to court popularity by calling for higher minimum wages. Democrats are united behind a demand for a national minimum wage of $15 an hour, more than double the current $7.25 rate. State legislatures in California and New York have enacted laws that gradually raise their minimum wages to $15. Few governments, however, have moved as aggressively as the city of Seattle. In 2014 the council voted to raise the minimum wage, the hourly rate set by the state of Washington, then $9.32, to $11 an hour from April 2015, followed by further rises, to $13 in January 2016 and $15 in January this year. Smaller firms and those that provide benefits on top of pay were given longer to implement the changes.

On the surface, Seattle�s economy seems to have weathered the increases well�indeed, to have benefited from them. Since the initial rise, in April 2015, the unemployment rate in the surrounding area has fallen from 4.3% to 3.3% and employment has grown strongly. An analysis published in June by the Centre on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California, Berkeley, compared employment in the food-services industry in Seattle with that in the same industry in comparable areas elsewhere over the period of the first two increases (to $11 and then $13). It concluded that, despite increased wages in the industry in Seattle, there was no detectable effect on employment.

Another recent analysis, however, by a team from the University of Washington, arrives at a very different conclusion. Its authors use data that are not publicly available, on wages earned and hours worked by individuals. They also find that the increase in the minimum wage to $11 seems not to have had much of an effect on employment. But the second rise, to $13, led to a sharp decline in both jobs and hours worked below $13 an hour (as the new rate was phased in), which was not fully matched by increases in jobs and hours worked at or above $13. The hours lost were large enough to result in a net reduction in pay to low-wage workers averaging $125 a month in 2016.

The paper attracted withering criticism from some other economists. Some noted that its analysis left out workers who adjusted to the changes by becoming contractors rather than full employees or by moving away from Seattle, or who switched to jobs at large firms with multiple locations (which were not included in the data set used by the authors). Others pointed out that even though there was no offsetting rise in employment at wages between $13 an hour and $19 an hour, employment at wages above the $19 mark rose sharply. What is more, the fine-grained data used in the report covered only the state of Washington, whereas other parts of America might have provided a better control case. Some of these criticisms are stronger than others. There are limitations to the data, as the authors themselves admit, and this is hardly the last word on the subject.

Elastic bands

But these studies raise other pressing questions. Another way of looking at the effect of higher wages on employment is by calculating what economists call the �elasticity of employment� with respect to wages: that is, by how much employment changes for a given change in the wage. Most studies find an elasticity of around zero, meaning that whatever employment changes occur in response to a minimum-wage change, positive or negative, they are relatively small. The University of Washington team, in contrast, finds that in moving from $11 per hour to $13 the elasticity was close to -3: that is, small jumps in the wage led to freakishly large declines in employment. Subsequent studies should provide clues about how robust that finding is. If true, however, it suggests that firms can more easily adjust their business models to reduce the role of low-wage labour than was previously believed: by automating, perhaps, or by eliminating jobs that were not particularly necessary in the first place.

For politicians looking to improve the fortunes of low-paid workers, signs that higher minimum wages lead to job losses will suggest that other tools, such as wage subsidies, must be relied on more heavily. But another question might also be asked. If workers can find employment only at a low wage, is society actually better for having those jobs? Tens of millions of workers fall into such categories. Nearly 13m American workers, for example, are employed in food preparation. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reports their median hourly wage is just $10 an hour.

If, at higher minimum wages, some of these low-wage workers end up being unemployed, that is personally and socially destructive. But if research suggests that large numbers of workers can find jobs only if wages are low enough to discourage firms from automation, or to encourage them to create unnecessary jobs, then the right balance between a minimum wage and other income-boosting measures might not be the big concern. Instead, politicians need to think harder about how to prepare workers for higher-paid, higher-productivity jobs�or, failing that, how to help them contribute in roles outside paid private-sector work.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:24

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Proud Christian Mom posted:

that poo poo is already done. high paying, non-skilled labor is next on the chopping block. im looking at you, oilfield workers

I'm talking poo poo like fast food and shelf stocking. But yeah, mining has already been automated. I'm sure logging and oil will be next.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:25

EBB: Feb 15, 2005

Proud Christian Mom posted:

that poo poo is already done. high paying, non-skilled labor is next on the chopping block. im looking at you, oilfield workers

ditto stevedores

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:26

boop the snoot: Jun 3, 2016

psydude posted:

I'm talking poo poo like fast food and shelf stocking. But yeah, mining has already been automated. I'm sure logging and oil will be next.

so in 15 years we can have candidates run on bringing back our fast food jobs, and the circle of life will continue.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:27

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

Do you interact with people?
Is your job repetitive?

If you answered no to the first, and yes to the second, congrats youre going to get automated out.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:29

Hot Karl Marx: Mar 16, 2009; Politburo regulations about social distancing require to downgrade your Karlmarxing to cold, and sorry about the dnc primaries, please enjoy!

Proud Christian Mom posted:

that poo poo is already done. high paying, non-skilled labor is next on the chopping block. im looking at you, oilfield workers

I'm a skilled machine operator they can't possiblly automate and if they do it will just make my life easier cause I'll have to just moniter the equipment. Also MGS5 is coming true.

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/894940416931319808

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:30

Serjeant Buzfuz: Dec 5, 2009

I find it hard to believe logging is going to be automated completely. Sure, the advent of bigger and better logging equipment has heavily reduced man power requirements but the real life challenges of cutting down trees in remote areas are huge and will require very advanced robotics/AI in the future to replace human workers.

At least in my lifetime.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:31

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

Hot Karl Marx posted:

I'm a skilled machine operator they can't possiblly automate and if they do it will just make my life easier cause I'll have to just moniter the equipment. Also MGS5 is coming true.

Yeah this is basically my client that owns a cutting edge machine shop. Load material, load program, play on cell phone while making sure it doesnt spin apart. There isnt much fat left to cut there.

Thats even if you want someone to bother watching. If you're doing cutting then you can just fill the stocker with material, send the program to it then come back and collect your sheets full of cut widgets Monday morning.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:35

Hot Karl Marx: Mar 16, 2009; Politburo regulations about social distancing require to downgrade your Karlmarxing to cold, and sorry about the dnc primaries, please enjoy!

The company I work for has been trying to gently caress the unions in the shop over lately, they recently got a contract approved where these kids in around a Toronto suburb (Scarborough) are literally making half what I do for doing basically what I am (smaller pipe but they got more poo poo to possiblly come in contact with)

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:35

Nystral: Feb 6, 2002; Every man likes a pretty girl with him at a skeleton dance.

The thing that never seems to get brought up is that in under 6 months thousands of people will be in South Korea for the Winter Olympics. So if KJU just chills out for a few months he can increase his leverage exponentially.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:38

The Iron Rose: May 12, 2012; Cat Army

psydude posted:

A $15 minimum wage in the US probably won't increase prices, but it will definitely speed up adoption of automation of low-paying nonskilled labor.

It might not increase prices, but a rapid or immediate minimum wage increase will actually harm workers if not phased in over a longer time period. I think it was Seattle but can't recall - some city mandated higher minimum wages, did it in too short of a time, and average wages for adults went down due to terminations and layoffs.

lovely on companies' parts and doesn't mean a higher minimum wage isn't a good thing overall. But there are absolutely negative externalities that need to be taken into account, and rapidly increasing the minimum wage will 100% result in negative outcomes unless policy accounts for that.

Similarly, different regions need different wages. $15 an hour goes a lot further in Appalachia than in San Francisco.

E: it was already posted, d'oh.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:39

Defenestrategy: Oct 24, 2010

The Iron Rose posted:

Similarly, different regions need different wages. $15 an hour goes a lot further in Appalachia than in San Francisco.

Some goon posted it somewhere, but an apt quote was something to the tune of

"Fight for 15 is a good slogan, but you get assholes going "WELL THATS TOO MUCH YOU'LL KILL THE ECONOMY AND GET YOUR JOBS AUTOMATED :smug:

", but it's just a slogan because fight for 15 is way more catchy and easily more understandable than, "Fight for a living wage based on local cost of living, production standards, and is preferably pegged to inflation" "

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:44

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

KildarX posted:

Some goon posted it somewhere, but an apt quote was something to the tune of

"Fight for 15 is a good slogan, but you get assholes going "WELL THATS TOO MUCH YOU'LL KILL THE ECONOMY AND GET YOUR JOBS AUTOMATED", but it's just a slogan because fight for 15 is way more catchy and easily more understandable than, "Fight for a living wage based on local cost of living, production standards, and is preferably pegged to inflation" "

I remember when the Papa John's owner was bitching either about healthcare or wages or something and essentially said "Look, if I'm going to give those benefits, each large pizza will cost a 25 cents more!" Like, gently caress, is that all?

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:46

Poppyseed Poundcake: Feb 23, 2007

Blind Rasputin posted:

Well that's cool and good. Have the achieved re-entry vehicle success yet? My understanding is that's the hard part.

No I'm pretty sure gravity handles all that

# ? Aug 8, 2017 17:58

Mr. Mambold: Feb 13, 2011; Aha. Nice post.

Casimir Radon posted:

I bought a lead codpiece for just such an occasion. So, uh, speak for yourself Cole.

Lol. DEVO knew!

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:06

Blind Rasputin: Nov 25, 2002; Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

Poppyseed Poundcake posted:

No I'm pretty sure gravity handles all that

I was referring to the materials for the RV housing. I guess I understand that it's actually quite hard to build the materials that can withstand the extreme heat and pressure of re-entry. I remember reading they were testing some RV prototypes a few months back using jet engine exhaust but I was just wondering if anyone knew anything more. It's one of the last few hurdles for them. They don't even need that good of a targeting and guidance system, and they certainly don't give a poo poo about what type of platform they launch from.

Now news is saying they like have more than 60 missile ready warheads.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:14

Hot Karl Marx: Mar 16, 2009; Politburo regulations about social distancing require to downgrade your Karlmarxing to cold, and sorry about the dnc primaries, please enjoy!

Brush up on your Korean and Farsi boys

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:34

MA-Horus: Dec 3, 2006; I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

Hot Karl Marx posted:

Brush up on your Korean and Farsi boys

Soju, juseyo.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:39

not caring here: Feb 22, 2012; blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

Should be gearing up for a war in Korea just in time for winter.

You all gonna die a frozen death.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:45

Mr_Ruckus: Jul 8, 2008

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Yeah this is basically my client that owns a cutting edge machine shop. Load material, load program, play on cell phone while making sure it doesnt spin apart. There isnt much fat left to cut there.

Thats even if you want someone to bother watching. If you're doing cutting then you can just fill the stocker with material, send the program to it then come back and collect your sheets full of cut widgets Monday morning.

I work in a machine shop were we have one fully automated cell with a robot, 2 lathes, and a CMM that can run about 12 hours without intervention (usually just to change inserts & load slugs on the conveyor and unload the outfeed conveyor), and then we have a bunch of CNC lathes / mills that are run by operators. In recent years we've been pairing machines to have one person running two. I feel like increased minimum wage would push my company to buy more of the automated cells eventually, or find more ways of reducing the amount of manpower needed. You can't eliminate having workers altogether, but there's a big difference between 20 people running 20 machines and 2-5 people monitoring and occasionally intervening with 20 machines.

That said, I'm for an increased minimum wage, but it's just going to force us as a country to figure out how to keep the same (or even increase) amount of employment so the same people are getting those wages.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 18:46

bird cooch: Jan 19, 2007

My former employer builds the giant robots that make airplanes and spaceships. Here's the secret: Robots don't know when they are making a mistake and it is going to be a very long time before AI can be trusted for quality assurance.

That said, warehouse and fast-food jobs are on death's door.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:14

Johnny Five-Jaces: Jan 21, 2009

Blind Rasputin posted:

Well that's cool and good. Have the achieved re-entry vehicle success yet? My understanding is that's the hard part.

phone posting so i can't look at the moment, but my understanding of the test is that North Korea maintained contact with the warhead through reentry all the way to "detonation." Whether the monitoring equipment can survive but the reentry vehicle is not fit to have a live warhead up there is not something I can answer

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:18

facialimpediment: Feb 11, 2005; as the world turns

The American President addresses a scared public, worried about WaPo report of launchable Nork Nukes.

https://twitter.com/RealPressSecBot/status/894981799163514880

https://twitter.com/RealPressSecBot/status/894984313774551040

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:21

boop the snoot: Jun 3, 2016

Rarely has an administration achieved this much of nothing.

Well he's not lying.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:26

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

Mr_Ruckus posted:

That said, I'm for an increased minimum wage, but it's just going to force us as a country to figure out how to keep the same (or even increase) amount of employment so the same people are getting those wages.

there's an easy solution to this but it is DOA because it involves making the rich actually pay something

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:26

Nick Soapdish: Apr 27, 2008

Stolen from the Trump thread.

DaveWoo posted:

https://twitter.com/Hadas_Gold/status/894985288535199746

The snowflakiest president.

God drat is that loving sad

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:26

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

mlmp08 posted:

I remember when the Papa John's owner was bitching either about healthcare or wages or something and essentially said "Look, if I'm going to give those benefits, each large pizza will cost a 25 cents more!" Like, gently caress, is that all?

John Schnabel is a piece of poo poo, just like every slice of his pizzas. Cocksucker built a 1/10th scale model of his then-to-be-built 50k square foot house but can't pay his employees a worthwhile wage.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:28

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/894979350055059456

I..... :stare:

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:38

Gobbeldygook: May 13, 2009; Hates Native American people and tries to justify their genocides.

Put this racist on ignore immediately!

psydude posted:

I'm talking poo poo like fast food and shelf stocking. But yeah, mining has already been automated. I'm sure logging and oil will be next.

Little Caesars is on the cutting edge.

quote:

The Detroit-based company started selling hot pizzas today through two machines that it calls Pizza Portals at a store in Troy, 2993 E. Big Beaver, and in 14 stores in the Tucson, Ariz. area.

The machines are like lockers that keep pizzas hot until you pick them up.

You order and pay for your pie online through your mobile app. The pizzas are placed in the portal, and it unlocks when you arrive and punch in either a unique three-digit number or flash a QR code into a screen.

Fewer lines. No cashier.

It's like getting a DVD from Redbox or cash from an ATM.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:38

BigDave: Jul 14, 2009; Taste the High Country

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/894979350055059456

I.....

Gorka The Dorka posted:

�There�s a great rule: All initial reports are false,� Gorka said. �You have to check them and find out who the perpetrators are. We�ve had a series of crimes committed, alleged hate crimes by right wing individuals in the last six months that turned out to be prop propagated by the left. Let�s allow the local authorities to provide their assessment and then the White House will make its comments.�

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:48

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

Hot Karl Marx posted:

Same thing is happening in my yard, Ontario is going $15/h for minimum wage and they're all complaining that everything is going to cost $10 more and don't listen when I show that didn't happen in Seattle when they raised theirs

It's loving mindblowing to me that business owners have managed to make this a part of the collective consciousness.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:52

timma85: Feb 13, 2006

The Iron Rose posted:

It might not increase prices, but a rapid or immediate minimum wage increase will actually harm workers if not phased in over a longer time period. I think it was Seattle but can't recall - some city mandated higher minimum wages, did it in too short of a time, and average wages for adults went down due to terminations and layoffs.

lovely on companies' parts and doesn't mean a higher minimum wage isn't a good thing overall. But there are absolutely negative externalities that need to be taken into account, and rapidly increasing the minimum wage will 100% result in negative outcomes unless policy accounts for that.

Similarly, different regions need different wages. $15 an hour goes a lot further in Appalachia than in San Francisco.

E: it was already posted, d'oh.

538 did a write up about Seattles minimum wage issues. They compared the two main studies that have come out. UC Berkeley said the minimum wage hike didn't affect minimum wage workers negatively. The UW study says the hike did negatively affect minimum wage workers. The right-wing media also got in a frenzy about the mayor of Seattle asking UC Berkeley to speed up the release of their study so it came out before UW's study. Both studies seem to have some holes in them.

Best write up about the studies done on Seattles minimum wage so far.

# ? Aug 8, 2017 19:55