Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
20 Blunts
Jan 21, 2017

***12 hours passes***

"LOOK THEYRE STILL LIBERALS!"

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ularg
Mar 2, 2010

Just tell me I'm exotic.

A stand? Like how he hasn't been waterboarded for charity yet?

https://thinkprogress.org/hannity-explodes-after-being-confronted-by-thinkprogress-about-previous-offer-to-be-waterboarded-for-644af3767139/

quote:

Fox News host Sean Hannity is so adamant that waterboarding is not torture that he once offered to be waterboarded at a charity event and donate the proceeds to soldiers’ families. Four years later, a yet-to-be-waterboarded Hannity did not take kindly to being called out about it on his own radio show.

Yes I'm bitter and petty. Oh and I guess NK will kill us all, huh.

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

Trabisnikof posted:

How dare a country threaten to strike a military to stop an attack. Only thing worse would be if a country threatened "fire and fury like the world has never seen" over a potential threat.

North Korea, the plucky little hero in this tale

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Spiritus Nox posted:

The rhetoric, sure. Their actual intentions, I would say quite a bit less so.

I don't know, dude, it's about as close as you're going to get short of actually being inside of Kim Jong-un's head. There's not going to be anything on state media that isn't approved by the regime and the people authorizing this messaging know that it's going to be seen by other governments as well. "We're considering a preemptive strike if we think you're going to attack us" seems like it's very possibly true. They have nothing to lose if they honestly believe that an attack is imminent.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Paradoxish posted:

I don't know, dude, it's about as close as you're going to get short of actually being inside of Kim Jong-un's head. There's not going to be anything on state media that isn't approved by the regime and the people authorizing this messaging know that it's going to be seen by other governments as well. "We're considering a pre-emptive strike if we think you're going to attack us" seems like it's very possibly true. They have nothing to lose if they honestly believe that an attack is imminent.

...And this is different from yesterday, or hell a year ago, how?

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

North Korea, the plucky little hero in this tale

Of the two countries right now, NK isn't the one threatening nuclear war over rhetoric. Trump is threatening using nuclear weapons if North Korea doesn't stop saying things he doesn't like. North Korea is threatening to bomb a strategic military base if they believed the US would soon launch an attack. North Korea is taking the George W Bush policy here and I don't approve but it is more reasonable than Trump.

Not my fault Trump's doing everything he can to make NK look reasonable.

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Spiritus Nox posted:

...And this is different from yesterday, or hell a year ago, how?

I don't know since I never said that it was.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

SulphagneSocialist posted:

Yeah, I edited in a mention of the Soviet officers (I think there were more than Petrov), probably after you already quoted me. There was that false alarm from a Norwegian weather rocket in the 1990s, and one other false positive that wasn't Petrov during the Soviet era.

There was also the collective ABLE ARCHER freakout the USSR had in 1983.

Yeah, it's reassuring to remember that, in the end, senior officers are still human. For most of them, there can, in fact, be a bridge too far, an order that they simply can't obey.

The other Soviet era example you were thinking of might have been Vasili Arkhipov, by the way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov A good example for today's fleet commanders to follow. I hope. I pray.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010

https://twitter.com/passantino/status/895043437367410688

Air Pirates of Guam is a dope fuckin name

WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Majorian posted:

While this is usually true, I think it can be overstated. Generals and Admirals can, and often do, develop minds of their own, in spite of their training; see Mike Flynn's behavior under Obama, or William Fallon's under Dubya. Or, for an example of a senior officer disobeying protocol in refusing to launch a nuclear strike, see Stanislav Petrov. The point is, at some juncture, the drive for self-preservation and avoiding world-ending conflicts will usually override an officer's respect for the chain of command.

This is true, but what scares some people is that N Korea is not a real threat like the Soviet Union was. Some in the military may think that this is a nuclear war we can "win", as opposed to nuking the soviets which would have been suicide.

I mean yeah we would "win" but I'm sure you know what I mean.

WorldsStongestNerd fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Aug 8, 2017

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Party Plane Jones posted:

(ew greenwald but still)

In about 20 years the history of the theory and practice of imperial presidency in the United States is going to look at comments like this as being painfully, childishly naive.

To his credit, Greenwald seems to understand and accept that fairweather acceptance of his work (dependent on whether or not Democrats are in power; Republicans don't seem to be up to the task of engaging with his work no matter what way the wind blows) is just how it's going to go, and he continues doggedly pursuing the same kind of work he always has.


hahahaha i'm loving with you he's obviously getting that putin dick amiright

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

North Korea, the plucky little hero in this tale

'Won't someone think of the poor American imperialists'

Nobody is a good guy in this situation

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

The scary thing is that if we were serious, actually, legit serious about being willing to use the military to stop NK from developing nuclear ICBM's and we weren't just bluffing (all presidents have had to say the military option is available if you want diplomacy to succeed) then we're probably less than a year away from walking away from diplomacy and attacking NK. If a smart, rational, sane president wanted to explain that we're out of options and must go to war, I'm willing to hear him out, but we've got the loving insane cheeto nazi making that call.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002


this is poorly phrased

north korea is very loudly talking about how they might attack guam in their state media, it's not that reports are suggesting that we have intercepts about them actually considering it

basically, it's a very loud threat to trump not an indication they're seriously doing it

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


That is an amazing name.


Also isn't that just saying they're drawing up battle plans? As in, previously they hadn't considered how to attack Guam with missiles? If so that's even less of a big deal and more of a show.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

OddObserver posted:

Sadly our way of electing the President was designed to balance power between various late 18th century elites, not based on modern democratic values.

Edit:

There is also 1824 which needs an asterisk, but that one was... a little more complicated.

I really miss the QuidProQuo "let's play presidential elections". At least we got to elect the Anti-Masonic Party. :v:

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Bishounen Bonanza posted:

This is true, but what scares some people is that N Korea is not a real threat like the Soviet Union was. Some in the military may think that this is a nuclear war we can "win", as opposed to nuking the soviets which would have been suicide.

Yeah, which is definitely troubling. Although in my research and personal experience, it ironically tends to be civilian analysts and political appointees in the Pentagon who are the most gungho for such conflicts.

Lookin' at you, Doug Feith, you unbelievable piece of poo poo.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Can't wait for the increasingly likely future that NK will use nuclear deterrence to essentially do whatever the gently caress they want to on the Korean peninsula.

twice burned ice
Dec 29, 2008

My stove defies the laws of physics!

I wish

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Rigel posted:

The scary thing is that if we were serious, actually, legit serious about being willing to use the military to stop NK from developing nuclear ICBM's and we weren't just bluffing (all presidents have had to say the military option is available if you want diplomacy to succeed) then we're probably less than a year away from walking away from diplomacy and attacking NK. If a smart, rational, sane president wanted to explain that we're out of options and must go to war, I'm willing to hear him out, but we've got the loving insane cheeto nazi making that call.

the reality is there are two choices:

1) accept MAD with north korea, where they have the capability to threaten american cities
2) go to war with north korea

everyone keeps hoping for option 3, but there really isn't one at this point short of some massive diplomatic breakthrough that is not possible with someone in control of the united states whose word cannot be trusted

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Boon posted:

Can't wait for the increasingly likely future that NK will use nuclear deterrence to essentially do whatever the gently caress they want to on the Korean peninsula.

I mean, that doesn't even work for the other nuclear powers, why would it work for them?

SeANMcBAY
Jun 28, 2006

Look on the bright side.



Boon posted:

Can't wait for the increasingly likely future that NK will use nuclear deterrence to essentially do whatever the gently caress they want to on the Korean peninsula.

It goes both ways so I'm sure their actions won't change much.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Trabisnikof posted:

I mean, that doesn't even work for the other nuclear powers, why would it work for them?

that works for russia, they would not have been able to conquer eastern ukraine if not for their nuclear deterrent

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Trabisnikof posted:

I mean, that doesn't even work for the other nuclear powers, why would it work for them?

To which nuclear power do you refer that has territorial disputes with it's neighbor, isn't already in control of that territory, and who isn't also armed with nuclear weapons?

Russia has had no problems annexing Crimea, that's for sure.

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
If there were a band named Air Pirates of Guam I would automatically buy their album even if I'd never heard their music.

Low Desert Punk
Jul 4, 2012

i have absolutely no fucking money
Is there any way South Korea makes it out fine even in a relatively minimal altercation? I feel like they're getting hosed no matter what happens.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
The problem with what North Korea is considering or not considering as a course of action in sincerity is that Donald Trump acts on headlines.

botany
Apr 27, 2013

by Lowtax

evilweasel posted:

that works for russia, they would not have been able to conquer eastern ukraine if not for their nuclear deterrent

that's very questionable. what do you think would have happened without a nuclear deterrent?

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Low Desert Punk posted:

Is there any way South Korea makes it out fine even in a relatively minimal altercation? I feel like they're getting hosed no matter what happens.

no, south korea is basically right there and even the north is not stupid enough to attack china

japan would probably get shot at with missiles but really the only thing the north has in abundance is ground troops/vehicles and artillery. also all retaliation from the US/UN would come through south korea too

Mr Interweb
Aug 25, 2004

evilweasel posted:

knowing how to spreadsheet well is a useful skill. word...well, that's just basic competence.

at one job i made a spreadsheet for my own use that someone saw, thought was useful, and instructed other teams to start using it. right up until a few weeks before i left I was still getting calls about how it worked, and there were many people (smart people, in other areas) whose idea of a spreadsheet was you typed the numbers in, pulled out a calculator, and then typed in the result. formulas were like a dark magic (lawyers are real bad at math).

on a related note, excel formulas are the tool of the devil because there's always something slightly wrong in any complex spreadsheet you make for the first time but the error will be subtle because it just generates the wrong number instead of crashing (like a good program does) and due to variable names being A1, B6, etc and your formula being every bit of code mashed into a single complex line of code, it's fantastically irritating to hunt down the error because the code is utterly unreadable

Or because you put a dash at the beginning, which Excel will go stir crazy if you do (I use Excel to organize QC related issues). Drove me insane trying to figure out wtf the problem was.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

evilweasel posted:

the reality is there are two choices:

1) accept MAD with north korea, where they have the capability to threaten american cities
2) go to war with north korea

everyone keeps hoping for option 3, but there really isn't one at this point short of some massive diplomatic breakthrough that is not possible with someone in control of the united states whose word cannot be trusted

Another thing that complicates just accepting option 1 is the fear that North Korea might sell nuclear weapons to terrorists. We don't believe Russia or China would ever do that, so MAD makes more sense with them. Thats what it would probably take to get me to accept option 2, would be if the military could somehow convince me that option 1 won't work.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Boon posted:

To which nuclear power do you refer that has territorial disputes with it's neighbor, isn't already in control of that territory, and who isn't also armed with nuclear weapons?

Russia has had no problems annexing Crimea, that's for sure.

Israel?

Also Pakistan and India aren't exactly best buddies. China doesn't get whatever it wants from its neighbors. Even the US can't get whatever we want from countries.

Your point that SK and Japan don't possess nuclear weapons is moot unless you're also assuming the US will abandoned their defense. Possessing nuclear weapons doesn't gain NK any guarantees except maybe survival.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Office Pig posted:

The problem with what North Korea is considering or not considering as a course of action in sincerity is that Donald Trump acts on headlines.

This is a major problem. Trump doesn't understand foreign policy or the fact that North Korea relies on what amounts to trolling the international community to get what it wants, but I don't think North Korea realizes that Trump is stupid enough to take them at face value and react like a child would.

I can only imagine that there are a number of North Korean officers who got used to Obama who have no clue how much of a moron they're dealing with.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Low Desert Punk posted:

Is there any way South Korea makes it out fine even in a relatively minimal altercation? I feel like they're getting hosed no matter what happens.

No country wants a war on it's territory, so you're going to have to define 'fine'.

Open war on the peninsula will see at a minimum:
a) an exodus of both North and South Korean refuges straining infrastructure in and around the region
b) an exodus of capital from markets

Likely:
a) civilian causalities
b) increased destabilization and escalation

Blorange
Jan 31, 2007

A wizard did it

evilweasel posted:

that works for russia, they would not have been able to conquer eastern ukraine if not for their nuclear deterrent

Ukraine itself is a perfect example of what happens to states that surrender their nuclear capabilities. Any promise the US could make would be taken in light of the one Ukraine got in 1994, and how well that worked out.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Boon posted:

No country wants a war on it's territory, so you're going to have to define 'fine'.

Open war on the peninsula will see at a minimum:
a) an exodus of both North and South Korean refuges straining infrastructure in and around the region
b) an exodus of capital from markets

Likely:
a) civilian causalities
b) increased destabilization and escalation

There's also no scenario where North and South Korea go to war where massive war crimes and civilian abuse don't occur. I shudder to imagine North Korea occupying South Korean towns and cities.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

botany posted:

that's very questionable. what do you think would have happened without a nuclear deterrent?

the united states and the EU would have been much more willing to support ukraine, which wants desperately to join the american sphere, overtly or covertly to retake its territory

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

Blorange posted:

Ukraine itself is a perfect example of what happens to states that surrender their nuclear capabilities. Any promise the US could make would be taken in light of the one Ukraine got in 1994, and how well that worked out.

Don't forget Ghadaffi and Saddam who also stopped their WMD programs at the cost of their own lives.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Trabisnikof posted:

Israel?

Also Pakistan and India aren't exactly best buddies. China doesn't get whatever it wants from its neighbors. Even the US can't get whatever we want from countries.

Your point that SK and Japan don't possess nuclear weapons is moot unless you're also assuming the US will abandoned their defense. Possessing nuclear weapons doesn't gain NK any guarantees except maybe survival.

Disagree.

- Israel (who does not actually admit to having the weapons) already owns the territory it claims or already does whatever the gently caress it wants in territory it doesn't (Palestine).
- Pakistan and India are both nuclear countries.
- China DOES do whatever it wants both in the south china sea, Hong Kong, and in Nepal. It's other disputed region, with India, is once again a situation where both countries possess nuclear arsenals.

And :lol: if you think we don't just walk around loving up countries who can't harm us. The longest war in American history isn't even fully wrapped up.

  • Locked thread