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Olsen is an interesting player this year and there are basically 2 schools of thoughts about him. The additions of mccaffery and Samuel who will primarily run shorter routes will either: 1) reduce Olsens targets so much to makes it difficult for him to hit adp value 2) free him up to run deeper routes which could lead to a career year and a bargain at his adp.
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Aug 25, 2017 14:25
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Jota posted:Just did an auction draft for a 0.5 PPR goon league, tell me what you think: How many people in the league, and how many WR slots/flex slots are there?
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Aug 25, 2017 14:31
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Rotoviz, 4For4, and The Ultimate Draft Kit are my Holy Trinity of fantasy football analytics.
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Aug 25, 2017 14:41
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Dunno if this is cool but we need 1 more player in this league here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3829121 5th year of a $30 goon keeper league on Yahoo. We lost 3 out of 12 managers during the offseason and 2 are already replaced. If you join you're gonna randomly get one of these: quote:Tom Brady (NE - QB) - Round 8, Pick 5 - Can be kept for a 7th round pick (ADP: 2nd round) but you won't be able to keep anyone else from your salvaged team. It's unconventional, sure, but 2 of the 3 teams were garbage and nobody would have picked them up otherwise.
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Aug 25, 2017 16:05
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when is the draft? I am interested.
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Aug 25, 2017 16:23
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Drunk Nerds posted:How many people in the league, and how many WR slots/flex slots are there? 12 people, 2RB, 2WR, 1 FLX.
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Aug 25, 2017 16:24
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Forever_Peace posted:This offseason, they interviewed a local beat writer for every single team about things like usage and role, offensive line quality and depth, camp standouts, offensive and defensive philosophy etc. I've never been a huge believer in football stats but drat do I never, ever trust local beat writers. They come in two flavors: homers or haters.
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Aug 25, 2017 17:03
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Butter Hole posted:So they don't like Olsen? it feels so hard to lock up a good TE this year. Someone reached for Gronk (early second), someone reached for Kelce (early third). trying to stream TE was a nightmare last year. I spent a fifth rounder on Olsen and that seems like a fair price for consistency, but I guess we'll see. Well, they make an argument that it would be unusual for somebody his age: quote:In a normal year, TE3 would require roughly 224 points. A TE doing that at age 32 or older this century has only happened twice, both of which were Tony Gonzalez. He’s also the only TE this century to record more than 114 targets, 80 receptions, or 900 receiving yards in a season at that age, something Olsen was three catches away (in 2015) from doing each of the last three seasons. And that Olsen differs from Gates and Gonz in that he has been slowing down in the back half of seasons after he hit ~30: quote:Something else that really sticks out with Olsen is his declination over the last three seasons in the second half of the year. This is obviously absolutely critical to fantasy success in any league that has playoffs, and we didn’t see this kind of back-half breakdown in Gonzalez nor Gates when they were the ages of 29 to 31, despite overall similar production: They go on to discuss Olsen's situation this year compared to other TEs that are going later. There's a lot to like about Olsen, including his target floor, reliable hands, and track record of durability. But it's still a pretty high draft capital.
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Aug 25, 2017 17:08
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Forever_Peace posted:Well, they make an argument that it would be unusual for somebody his age: Huh, that IS useful information. Maybe I'll target Jordan Reed or Jimmy Graham in my next draft.
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Aug 25, 2017 17:23
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Forever_Peace posted:Well, they make an argument that it would be unusual for somebody his age: The problem with this analysis is it doesn't really take into account the situation of the team. By the second half of last year, Cam was beaten to hell and the Panthers as a whole cratered. I'm leery of him at his current ADP, but I think a lot of the second half regression were due to factors outside his control.
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Aug 25, 2017 17:56
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Sometime the week before football starts we're drafting for my Charity League. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3828867 This league is Cool and Good and features Cool People doing Good Things. I highly recommend playing. It is good fake football.
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Aug 25, 2017 17:58
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Sataere posted:The problem with this analysis is it doesn't really take into account the situation of the team. By the second half of last year, Cam was beaten to hell and the Panthers as a whole cratered. They used the average of the past 3 years. But you're right that a lot of that was last year. Looks like for his age 29 and 30 seasons, the 2nd-half drop was "only" 2 points per game.
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Aug 25, 2017 18:14
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CompeAnansi posted:Rate my team! (12 Teams - 0.5PPR, 2RB, 2WR, 1 FLX) Self-quoting myself on the new page. I was initially targeting DJ or Bell, but they both went for $80, so I had to settle for McCoy. But, my main worry is Fournette's ankle. I thought I was getting a deal on him (I had him projected as worth $33), but I never had any intention of targeting him since he was going for more than that in mocks, so I hadn't read up on his injury situation at all. Other than that, I'm pretty happy with how it turned out. CompeAnansi fucked around with this message at 22:31 on Aug 25, 2017 |
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Aug 25, 2017 18:23
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I'm stuck in an 8 man league that can't attract more people. I was thinking to make it so everyone doesn't have a superteam, we'd do the following. 2QB/2RB/3WR/2TE/Def/1 IDP Are there any other tactics we can use to make this interesting?
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Aug 25, 2017 18:40
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OxySnake posted:when is the draft? September 6th @ 9PM EDT 
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Aug 25, 2017 18:49
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internet inc posted:September 6th @ 9PM EDT Sign me up.
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Aug 25, 2017 19:26
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coronaball posted:Are there any other tactics we can use to make this interesting? No Bench
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Aug 25, 2017 19:36
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CompeAnansi posted:Self-quoting myself on the new page. I was initially targeting DJ or Bell, but they both went for $80, so I had to settle for McCoy. But, my main worry is Fournette's ankle. I thought I was getting a deal on him (I had him projected as worth $33), but I never had any intention of targeting him since he was going for more than that in mocks, so I hadn't read up on his injury situation at all. Other than that, I'm pretty happy with how it turned out. How many teams in your league? How many WR slots and flex slots are there?
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Aug 25, 2017 19:41
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Draft Jimmy Graham, you nerds
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Aug 25, 2017 19:51
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89 posted:Draft Jimmy Graham, you nerds gently caress you, dad! You're not the boss of me!
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Aug 25, 2017 19:52
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this is Kyle Rudolph's year!
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Aug 25, 2017 19:54
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coronaball posted:I'm stuck in an 8 man league that can't attract more people. I was thinking to make it so everyone doesn't have a superteam, we'd do the following. Expanding the lineup is definitely one way to do it. I'd basically add 1 RB, 1 WR and probably a W/T flex and things even out a good bit. Even a QB or Superflex is fine, I'd think. You could limit the bench of you wanted to, that can force interesting choices. I don't think adding 1 IDP does much of anything. I'm in a 12 teamer that does 4 and even that still leaves good options open.
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Aug 25, 2017 20:09
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Am I crazy to punt on WRs in a 12 man No PPR league? Just go hard on RBs. My mocks have me starting something like Crowder & Decker or Martavis Bryant & Cooper Kupp and I feel pretty okay about that considering the league.
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Aug 25, 2017 20:59
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89 posted:Am I crazy to punt on WRs in a 12 man No PPR league? Just go hard on RBs. My mocks have me starting something like Crowder & Decker or Martavis Bryant & Cooper Kupp and I feel pretty okay about that considering the league. Those are really bad WR1s and 2s in no PPR.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:03
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RVProfootballer posted:Those are really bad WR1s and 2s in no PPR. WRs just seem so devalued in no PPR compared to RBs.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:04
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89 posted:WRs just seem so devalued in no PPR compared to RBs. Yeah, it's true, I just don't know what caliber of RBs you're getting to make up for such weak WRs.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:06
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, it's true, I just don't know what caliber of RBs you're getting to make up for such weak WRs. Mocks I'm running have me getting something like (#12 out of 12): RB: DeMarco Murray RB: Jay Ayaji FLEX: Mark Ingram CJ Anderson Doug Martin Then, making sure to handcuff Murray & Martin. Getting a higher TE like Graham or Walker/Bennett.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:12
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89 posted:WRs just seem so devalued in no PPR compared to RBs. Yes they're devalued, but I'd still target upside WRs around the third round. Keenan Allen and Terrell Pryor can give you some theoretically high ceilings to pair with guys like Crowder, Snead, and maybe even Cobb and Maclin much later in the draft. Kupp, M. Bryant, and even Decker could prove unstartable by week 4. E: I'm looking at your exact strategy in my twelve team home league. Skip Anderson and Martin. Handcuffs just cap upside, get unexciting WRs and take fliers late in the draft. Ayudo fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Aug 25, 2017 |
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Aug 25, 2017 21:14
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Why would Martavis be unstartable unless he gets suspended again? He should be a WR2 when Pit is home and a flex type when they are away (since Big Bens home/road splits are so drastic.) He doesn't belong in the same sentence as those other two.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:21
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Ayudo posted:Yes they're devalued, but I'd still target upside WRs around the third round. Keenan Allen and Terrell Pryor can give you some theoretically high ceilings to pair with guys like Crowder, Snead, and maybe even Cobb and Maclin much later in the draft. For example, of course this is drafting against AI, but this is a mock I just did with my strategy I have: QB: Jameis Winston RB: Devonta Freeman RB: DeMarco Murray WR: Alshon Jeffrey WR: Rishard Matthews TE: Jimmy Graham FLEX: Mark Ingram Bench: Frank Gore Doug Martin Jacquizz Rodgers Robby Anderson Cooper Kupp Marquis Lee Now, if I had been like, eh whatever on Doug Martin/Rodgers, my WR2 would end up being Tyrell Williams instead of Rishard Matthews.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:24
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coronaball posted:Why would Martavis be unstartable unless he gets suspended again? He should be a WR2 when Pit is home and a flex type when they are away (since Big Bens home/road splits are so drastic.) He doesn't belong in the same sentence as those other two. I'm not sure Decker should be considered unexciting. He's been a low end WR1 / high end WR2 for most of his career. Everyone just forgot that because he was hurt last year.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:25
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Alternatively, I'm drafting with alcoholics, so I can probably go RB heavy and still end up stealing WRs.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:25
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coronaball posted:Why would Martavis be unstartable unless he gets suspended again? He should be a WR2 when Pit is home and a flex type when they are away (since Big Bens home/road splits are so drastic.) He doesn't belong in the same sentence as those other two. Bryant's capacity for failure should be pretty self evident. Don't take him as your first WR.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:27
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hey guys good news https://twitter.com/JasonCole62/status/901178252450037760
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Aug 25, 2017 21:30
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corn on the cop posted:hey guys good news Changing my dynasty draft as we speak
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Aug 25, 2017 21:32
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89 posted:For example, of course this is drafting against AI, but this is a mock I just did with my strategy I have: I don't hate the team composition. We differ on player evaluation, but it looks like your grabbing players about where I would. Drafting from the turn is always tough because you've got to take what you're given. The bottom of your bench is the only thing I really don't like. I think I'd rather have RB fliers, but you'll probably be churning those guys either way.
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Aug 25, 2017 21:33
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In a 1 keeper 14 team standard league, someone is offering me Antonio Brown for my #1 pick. There are no round penalties. I already have Michael Thomas as my keeper. If I do this, I won't pick again until #28, so my WRs will be great but my RBs will likely suck. At #1 I'm probably getting Melvin Gordon/Jay Ajayi if I stay pat. At first he was offering to swap picks (I get Brown and pick 13 while he gets pick 1 and 28), but he seems to have changed his mind on that. Am I crazy for turning this down? As much as I would like having a Brown/Thomas combo, I'm weary of having two RB2s or worse as my RB core.
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Aug 25, 2017 22:09
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I think I would like Michael Thomas + Gordon / Ajayi then AB + the 28th overall pick.
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Aug 25, 2017 22:18
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would you get to keep AB indefinitely? If so would he always cost you a first round pick?
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Aug 25, 2017 22:20
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Drunk Nerds posted:How many teams in your league? How many WR slots and flex slots are there? Everything was in the quoted post except teams: 12 teams.
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Aug 25, 2017 22:30
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