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WrenP-Complete
Jul 27, 2012

Cingulate posted:

Bottom line is, it's really hard for a society in the 1st world to experience something as bad as what you can experience in the 3rd world. Even when you factor in tragic disasters like this one. Not much of a consolidation for Texans drowning right now I assume, but if you're not directly affected, that's still the facts.

I don't know why we'd have to compare disasters. First you say that you can't imagine this could approach Katrina levels of bad, then you are comparing American disasters to the "third world?"

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Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum

Hastings posted:

What is this hard on with getting undocumented immigrants out? What did they do to Trump? Seriously, this is stupidly, I humanely excessive.

They're a minority he can brutalize with the least amount of blow-back because they aren't citizens. Trump has always gotten his jollies from abusing power.

Yngwie Mangosteen
Aug 23, 2007

Prester Jane posted:

Whats your plan for supporting the daily needs of 2.35 million people without roads?

Also you are making a rather odd argument considering that humans have been abandoning major cities because of floods since we started farming as well......

Hey, I dig your analysis based on your experiences and you're cool, but you're reaching here to find an argument where there isn't one. There are going to be major issues and a lot of poo poo is going to go down, but Houston won't be wiped off the map and not exist anymore like that one poster said, that's all I was responding to.

ZenMasterBullshit
Nov 2, 2011

Restaurant de Nouvelles "À Table" Proudly Presents:
A Climactic Encounter Ending on 1 Negate and a Dream

WrenP-Complete posted:

I don't know why we'd have to compare disasters. First you say that you can't imagine this could approach Katrina levels of bad, then you are comparing American disasters to the "third world?"

Cingulate is really stupid and moves to even stupider goal posts when called out on how dumb they are.

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

Prester Jane posted:

The fundamental tenet of the Narrativist worldview is that all problems are fixed by violently purging undesirables from society that is quite literally all there is too it. Conservatives think that in order to MAGA they have to rid society of the impure by any means necessary.

See now I understand this.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Pakled posted:

Corpus Christi's a good 150+ miles away from the border and it's on the southern edge of the storm to begin with. Mexico hasn't been hit too hard.

This is from 8 days ago.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/tropical_storm_harvey_2017_cou.html

Harvey hit the Yucatan as a miserable Tropical wave dropping a few inches of rain, then hit the Gulf of Mexico and exploded into a slow moving wrath of god over 48 hours.

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011

farraday posted:

This is from 8 days ago.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/tropical_storm_harvey_2017_cou.html

Harvey hit the Yucatan as a miserable Tropical wave dropping a few inches of rain, then hit the Gulf of Mexico and exploded into a slow moving wrath of god over 48 hours.

that's some brutal irony.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
Also, it's only been like 2 days. This is suppose to last until Friday from what they're saying and it's possible that it will come back for a 2nd round.

This is going to be really really bad.

The population density of the area around Houston is way higher than New Orleans.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Hastings posted:

What is this hard on with getting undocumented immigrants out? What did they do to Trump? Seriously, this is stupidly, I humanely excessive.

For Trump? It's a very simple two part answer. First, when he says bad things about Mexicans he gets cheers and praise. Second, Obama implemented a more reasonable immigration standard that generally left kids and the non-criminal alone, and what was done by Obama must be undone by Trump with great vengeance.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit
https://twitter.com/travisbubenik/status/901852793920790528

https://twitter.com/KPRC2/status/901864840200941572

https://twitter.com/Circa/status/901864757493411841

https://twitter.com/moselxasvp/status/901864429456904192

https://twitter.com/imNicholePerez/status/901864245398310912

https://twitter.com/BexarCOSW/status/901864019857899521

https://twitter.com/Digital_PISTA/status/901863742073438209

https://twitter.com/kimbpix/status/901863620870582272

https://twitter.com/AmberRe98134093/status/901863511743135745

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

wow. The newest storm track is amazingly awful. Its going to turn around, go south and hit the coast again, reach the gulf to strengthen up a bit, then hit Texas again as it goes back north. Its not going to leave the area until after Wednesday.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

peengers posted:

If you want extra warm fuzzies over this texas disaster, reflect on exactly what's floating around in that floodwater from a disease standpoint.

When I saw that pic of the flooded retirement home, I instantly thought to myself that all those people in that photo will be dead within a month. It's not something I like thinking, but just knowing what's going to go on. Not because of the hurricane, but being partly submerged in cold water for over a day is going to wreck havoc on their already compromised immune systems and fragile constitutions and it just being rank and filled with waterborne pathogens, they're going to pick up some nasty poo poo that's gonna to kill them quickly. :smith:

Discussion Quorum
Dec 5, 2002
Armchair Philistine

C2C - 2.0 posted:

Yep, that's Katy. Thanks for posting

Not heard from our friends yet but those videos basically match up to everything I've heard.

Cingulate posted:

So is there an upside? Is Texas in 2017 better prepared than New Orleans was in 05? Is the landscape different? I can't imagine it will be as bad as Katrina.

I'm going to sound like I'm saying "this isn't so bad" so to be clear - this is really, really bad and it's not over yet. But breathless hyperbole to Katrina is premature.

I grew up outside New Orleans, lived through Katrina, and am in Houston right now. Qualitatively, I would say the level of preparation is much better. Houston has dealt with mass flooding as recently as 2 years ago. The situation is just too different to say "well it's like Katrina but worse."

I don't think the death toll will be nearly as bad as Katrina because the level of flooding necessary to straight up drown people in their homes is very localized, and the onset has been fairly slow. Whereas in New Orleans it was basically a dam breach in the middle of a Category 3 hurricane. I think it will definitely go up from the current count of 5 and could still be really bad, but people have more time to react and high water rescue teams were pre-positioned. There are reports of people being forced to their roofs or second floors in areas but the whole city isn't being filled up like a fishbowl like NOLA. Also, a lot of the deaths after Katrina were older/ill folks who medical services and aid couldn't reach because the entire emergency services apparatus - from police to fire to EMS to the hospitals - were completely loving paralyzed. That's not happening here.

Property damage is going to be massive and is hitting communities in places like Southeast Houston very hard. However the massive displacement from Katrina was due to homes being rendered completely uninhabitable by constant standing water and people not being allowed to return for weeks. I don't think you're going to see that here. As soon as the water goes down people are going to go back and rebuild, just like they did in 2015 and 2008 and 2001.

Lastly, the city is also not nearly as cut off as NO was after Katrina. Speaking of pictures - and not to downplay how bad things are for some communities - most of the truly horrifying shots of 20+ feet of water are of super low-lying areas that fill up every time it floods. Here's the same area that EX 250 Type R posted in 2015, after the water had gone down a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyQQJJwAH48

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

WrenP-Complete posted:

I don't know why we'd have to compare disasters. First you say that you can't imagine this could approach Katrina levels of bad, then you are comparing American disasters to the "third world?"
I made two different posts in two different contexts. The second one was in response to somebody who saw the world as going to poo poo when looking at 9/11, Katrina and this.

More generally, there are local tragedies and global catastrophes - unimaginable suffering on a personal or community-scale level, and unimaginable suffering on the scale of societies. I am quite concerned for my friends in Houston, but when I, not being in Texas right now, take a step back, I know materially speaking, life in Texas this year is on average gonna be better than life almost anywhere, almost anytime. It's not easy to have both of these in focus at the same time, but they're both important (to me), and true.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
I assume there are contingency plans to make sure prisoners don't drown ..?

Discussion Quorum posted:

I'm going to sound like I'm saying "this isn't so bad" so to be clear - this is really, really bad and it's not over yet. But breathless hyperbole to Katrina is premature.

I grew up outside New Orleans, lived through Katrina, and am in Houston right now. Qualitatively, I would say the level of preparation is much better. Houston has dealt with mass flooding as recently as 2 years ago. The situation is just too different to say "well it's like Katrina but worse."

I don't think the death toll will be nearly as bad as Katrina because the level of flooding necessary to straight up drown people in their homes is very localized, and the onset has been fairly slow. Whereas in New Orleans it was basically a dam breach in the middle of a Category 3 hurricane. I think it will definitely go up from the current count of 5 and could still be really bad, but people have more time to react and high water rescue teams were pre-positioned. There are reports of people being forced to their roofs or second floors in areas but the whole city isn't being filled up like a fishbowl like NOLA. Also, a lot of the deaths after Katrina were older/ill folks who medical services and aid couldn't reach because the entire emergency services apparatus - from police to fire to EMS to the hospitals - were completely loving paralyzed. That's not happening here.

Property damage is going to be massive and is hitting communities in places like Southeast Houston very hard. However the massive displacement from Katrina was due to homes being rendered completely uninhabitable by constant standing water and people not being allowed to return for weeks. I don't think you're going to see that here. As soon as the water goes down people are going to go back and rebuild, just like they did in 2015 and 2008 and 2001.

Lastly, the city is also not nearly as cut off as NO was after Katrina. Speaking of pictures - and not to downplay how bad things are for some communities - most of the truly horrifying shots of 20+ feet of water are of super low-lying areas that fill up every time it floods. Here's the same area that EX 250 Type R posted in 2015, after the water had gone down a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyQQJJwAH48

Thanks.

WrenP-Complete
Jul 27, 2012

Cingulate posted:

I made two different posts in two different contexts. The second one was in response to somebody who saw the world as going to poo poo when looking at 9/11, Katrina and this.

More generally, there are local tragedies and global catastrophes - unimaginable suffering on a personal or community-scale level, and unimaginable suffering on the scale of societies. I am quite concerned for my friends in Houston, but when I, not being in Texas right now, take a step back, I know materially speaking, life in Texas this year is on average gonna be better than life almost anywhere, almost anytime. It's not easy to have both of these in focus at the same time, but they're both important (to me), and true.

I think you can hold both of these truths (things are really bad & we are very privileged) at the same time without comparing tragedies.

WrenP-Complete fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Aug 27, 2017

WrenP-Complete
Jul 27, 2012

https://twitter.com/travisbubenik/status/901866284245295105

coyo7e
Aug 23, 2007

by zen death robot

Grassy Knowles posted:

If there is one thing you are absolutely not a credible source on, it’s loving topology.
:golfclap:

I'm tempted to find glowing fish's posts in the PNW thread, because he sure as gently caress knows nothing about analytics.

His Russia thread is basically terrible too, he doesn't even know about half the topical stuff revolving it.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Captain Monkey posted:

Hey, I dig your analysis based on your experiences and you're cool, but you're reaching here to find an argument where there isn't one. There are going to be major issues and a lot of poo poo is going to go down, but Houston won't be wiped off the map and not exist anymore like that one poster said, that's all I was responding to.

I'm not trying to have an argument, just stating that the city does not need to be literally wiped off the map for it to be rendered functionally inoperable as a major residential/commercial hub. If you don;t have the infrastructure to support a modern society you don't have a place where modern society can exist. Houston will certainly survive on in some form but when this is all said and done it will only be able to support a fraction of its previous population for probably several years. This kind of destruction takes a great deal of time to repair and in the meantime the lack of jobs and the difficulty of transporting in resources (Houston is now Alaska in the sense that almost everything must be brought in from elsewhere for the forseeable future) means that Houston is not going to be the 4th largest city in the US anymore.

Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Aug 27, 2017

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Discussion Quorum posted:

Property damage is going to be massive and is hitting communities in places like Southeast Houston very hard. However the massive displacement from Katrina was due to homes being rendered completely uninhabitable by constant standing water and people not being allowed to return for weeks. I don't think you're going to see that here. As soon as the water goes down people are going to go back and rebuild, just like they did in 2015 and 2008 and 2001.
Although the water goes down, issues with mold, wood rot, etc., will keep many flooded homes inhabitable for months if not years. Reminder that there are still thousands of homeowners post-Sandy who still haven't returned to their homes for various reasons. You definitely should not downplay the impact on housing.

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

Renaissance Spam posted:

Christ I forgot how much of a reprehensible excuse for a human being Asay was. I'm glad he's dead.

He's not dead. Just retired.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

dont wish death on other people, imo

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/901869006881263618

lol at flake

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

Cingulate posted:

I assume there are contingency plans to make sure prisoners don't drown ..?

Texas does execute them as fast as it can, but there's no guarantees that they'll get to em all in time

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Hollismason posted:

This is going to be really really bad.

Hollismason posted:

A lot of people here make Chicken Little look completely rational.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

:thunk:

(My point here is that maybe you shouldn't call people Chicken Littles for properly freaking out over a really really bad thing, you loving idiot rear end in a top hat)

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Waffles Inc. posted:

9/11
Katrina
and now Harvey

Harvey is every hurricane that has happened in your life but now perascope exists so you see what hurricanes really look like because no one livestreamed Andrew

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

WampaLord posted:

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

:thunk:

(My point here is that maybe you shouldn't call people Chicken Littles for properly freaking out over a really really bad thing, you loving idiot rear end in a top hat)

It's not going to kill 1800 people, it's going to be really really bad because its going back to the gulf then coming back. Also, I lived through Katrina and Andrew I know more about experiencing Hurricanes than you.


Go gently caress yourself you loving weirdo shitlord dumbfuck

I'll eat your children

RuanGacho
Jun 20, 2002

"You're gunna break it!"

Moments like this tear my heart out because we can do so much better, we have the means and the skill to do better. To be more resilient and compassionate, but it doesn't meet cost benefit analysis.

Stay safe everyone.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i was going to make a joke about goya, but instead:

hollismason, where is your avatar from? it's been killing me for months.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Harvey is every hurricane that has happened in your life but now perascope exists so you see what hurricanes really look like because no one livestreamed Andrew

Nah, I think Harvey is worse than Rita.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



RuanGacho posted:

Moments like this tear my heart out because we can do so much better, we have the means and the skill to do better. To be more resilient and compassionate, but it doesn't meet cost benefit analysis.

Stay safe everyone.

Yeah, it's too bad that everything is driven by statistical analysis in this regard, since often the average return period for a design storm isn't very conservative and solely driven by economics.

Hastings
Dec 30, 2008

JasonV posted:

Wow. I had read the quote and I honestly thought this was going to be an offhand comment that he just sort of said, but hadn't thought of what he was implying. But, no, he knew exactly what he was saying. The Secretary of State thinks the current President of the USA doesn't speak for the USA/Americans.

Even his Administration thinks he is acting beyond the pale. No wonder he holds on to that election win like a talisman :he knows he is hated, and holds onto any image of being loved, to convince himself of his superiority. Any chance his own people push for impeachment or 25?

WrenP-Complete
Jul 27, 2012

https://twitter.com/EBarbee/status/901859489846095874

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Harvey is every hurricane that has happened in your life but now perascope exists so you see what hurricanes really look like because no one livestreamed Andrew
No it isn't.

"This is already Houston’s "worst flood." It’s only going to get worse."
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/27/harvey-brings-catastrophic-flooding-houston/

Hastings
Dec 30, 2008
E:double post, sorry

coyo7e
Aug 23, 2007

by zen death robot

Prester Jane posted:

https://twitter.com/JorgeUBarrera/status/901835756448120832

Things like the above are why bringing the resources Houston is about to need is going to be next to impossible. The entire area is soft clay with artificial foundations built on top of it, once that clay beneath the artificial foundation erodes away the road is useless and not only do you have to start out from scratch, but you have to clear the debris of the old roadway out of the way first.


Downtown looks like this and we are not even to the halfway point of this yet. there is another 20+ inches of rain forecast for Houston, and that is the optimistic assessment.

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/901695324825075712


poo poo is already extremely dire: https://twitter.com/DividendsMGR/status/901805509950541825
Yeah the debris is why the flooded underpasses are such a big deal too. People keep saying "oh yeah those are all below sea level" but all of those roadways below sea level are going to be just absolutely packed with several yards deep mud and cars and whatever other detritus blows through

Oxxidation
Jul 22, 2007

Hastings posted:

Even his Administration thinks he is acting beyond the pale. No wonder he holds on to that election win like a talisman :he knows he is hated, and holds onto any image of being loved, to convince himself of his superiority. Any chance his own people push for impeachment or 25?

None.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

RuanGacho posted:

Moments like this tear my heart out because we can do so much better, we have the means and the skill to do better. To be more resilient and compassionate, but it doesn't meet cost benefit analysis.

Stay safe everyone.

I'm pretty sure when this is all said and done, the costs to rebuild will far exceed the costs to have improved sea walls and defenses against flooding.

It does meet cost benefit analysis but requires long term thinking and a non-profit motive. So obviously we didn't do it.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Trabisnikof posted:

Nah, I think Harvey is worse than Rita.

Harvey's death toll is currently five

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Harvey's death toll is currently five

Most of the bodies won't be found until after it stops dumping water on Texas.

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Pleasing Shape
Jan 9, 2004

The Vitally Important Pelvic Thrust
Shitstains will be calling this divine punishment because Houston elected a gay mayor (she left last year).

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