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Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Willo567 posted:

Wouldn't we have time to call them to let them know about it? There were a ton of moments where we almost had a nuclear war with Russia due to misunderstandings; I'd think we would be ready just in case

Hi, you know that thing we agreed to regarding nuclear weapons? Yeah, we said gently caress it, but only to deal with this one little problem. Pinky swear we have no intention of using this capability in the context of our relations.

Sorry: it would just plain be bad policy. Making an end run around doveryai, no proveryai better be for something more important than the DPRK.

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Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

Ynglaur posted:

Hi, you know that thing we agreed to regarding nuclear weapons? Yeah, we said gently caress it, but only to deal with this one little problem. Pinky swear we have no intention of using this capability in the context of our relations.

Sorry: it would just plain be bad policy. Making an end run around doveryai, no proveryai better be for something more important than the DPRK.

Sorry, I meant if Russian detected an interceptor as a nuke

Gnumonic
Dec 11, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 10 hours!
Not that it really matters much, but the Russians almost certainly violated the treaty banning nuclear cruise missiles themselves. I doubt they'd get all that mad at us (seriously mad, I'm sure they'd send out some nasty press releases) if we did too. I think that's the relevant treaty, anyway.

maskenfreiheit
Dec 30, 2004

Gnumonic posted:

Not that it really matters much, but the Russians almost certainly violated the treaty banning nuclear cruise missiles themselves. I doubt they'd get all that mad at us (seriously mad, I'm sure they'd send out some nasty press releases) if we did too. I think that's the relevant treaty, anyway.

Does launching from a submarine count as "ground launched"?🤔

Gnumonic
Dec 11, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 10 hours!

maskenfreiheit posted:

Does launching from a submarine count as "ground launched"?🤔

Huh, I'm wrong. I remember reading somewhere that the treaty banned all nuclear tipped cruise missiles, but apparently it doesn't cover sea-based ones. Does anyone know the relevant treaty? I can't even find out whether sea based nuclear cruise missiles are banned at all.

RaffyTaffy
Oct 15, 2008
Sea based are allowed. New Start or INF dont touch them.


Listen to the latest arms control wonk podcast episode (August 28) it talks about this.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/podcast/

If i remember right a variant of the RS-28 they tested will also violate INF. (Cut off the 3rd stage and overload it with MIRVS. Cuts the range down to just the euro region but MIRVS. SS-20 for the modern age.)

RaffyTaffy fucked around with this message at 06:16 on Sep 4, 2017

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011

Peven Stan posted:

I'm sure SK would love to be allies after whites trash the korean peninsula again with their hubristic imperialism

since when were the japanese and chinese considered white?

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/AP/status/904592020156669952

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
So are they just doing this for kicks now or what?

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

If it's a preemptive attack it's the stupidest option they could've done.

There has to be a better reason...

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Grouchio posted:

If it's a preemptive attack it's the stupidest option they could've done.

There has to be a better reason...

It's another test. They're just really loving pushing it at this point.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Paradoxish posted:

It's another test. They're just really loving pushing it at this point.
China would certainly reprimand them for this.

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Another one fly over Guam to show the world Orange Turd is a paper puss. :heysexy:

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
Should I expect to be woken up by J-alert again so soon after the last time?

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

Fojar38 posted:

Seems like a great way to teach the lesson "if you build nukes and scare Americans with them, you will get what you want."

They have had nukes for a while now and having a bigger nuke doesn't fundamentally change the strategic calculus at play here. North Korea flaunts them in an attempt to scare people into giving them what they want, a strategy that is apparently incredibly effective on goons, but one that is a giant bluff.

I live in Japan, though. Half my family does. I don't want a loving nuclear missile on my city. Of course I want them to negotiate.

Besides, you did more or less the same thing in the late 90's anyway, so it wouldn't break any kind of precedent. The north had missiles and nukes, Albright went there, they agreed to a deal involving fuel shipments, normalizing relations and building light water reactors in place of conventional nuclear reactors in exchange for disarmament, Kim Jong Il agreed to that, and the North didn't develop nuclear power in the late 90's even though congress failed to agree on lifting sanctions per the agreement and then Bush showed up and everything went out the window. North Korea could have been like Cuba, a state with which the US doesn't agree and which lies outside of its sphere of influence, but which isn't directly hostile, but that chance was missed. I don't count on Trump doing anything good, but the obvious course of action would be another agreement like this, similar to the Iran deal. This would be nothing new.

Here's another part of the story that's usually forgotten: North Korea most likely got its enrichment technology from Pakistan, which in turn got its weapons program going because of Abdul Qadeer Khan, a metallurgist spy who obtained the technology by spying on enrichment technology firms in the Netherlands and Germany. The Dutch government (and by extension, the CIA, since the Dutch intelligence agency AIVD shares almost everything with the Americans) knew perfectly well that he was a spy, but they let him do his thing. The prime minister at the time later revealed that Khan was allowed to do this under instructions from the Americans:

http://canadafreepress.com/2006/ludwig032306.htm

quote:

Over the last few months, this story has taken a new twist. Ruud Lubbers, a former Dutch prime minister, revealed in August 2005 that the Netherlands was prepared to arrest Abdul Qadeer Khan 30 years ago. Dutch authorities came close to arresting Khan twice, first in 1975 and later in 1986, but the CIA requested that they let him act freely. This revelation is embarrassing to both the CIA and Dutch minister of Justice P. H. Donner, who was previously asked about possible CIA action concerning Khan, and told parliament ''that nothing of the kind has happened. The CIA had nothing to do with it''.

Dutch intelligence had suspicions that Khan was stealing nuclear secrets in the Netherlands. They began to monitor him as soon as he arrived at the Physical Dynamic Research Laboratory. However, according to Lubbers, the country's security agency asked the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 1975, then headed by him, not to act against Khan. "I think the American intelligence agency put into practice what is very common there; just give us all the information. And do not arrest that man; just let him go ahead. We will have him followed and that way gain more information," Lubbers told VPRO Argos Radio in an interview.

The CIA's pressure against the Dutch authorities and its handling of Kahn's activities resulted in a disaster. Khan skilfully outplayed the CIA, manoeuvred around the international export controls of the IAEA, and acquired all the equipment needed for the fabrication of the A-bomb. Dr. Kahn would later recall: "My long stay in Europe and intimate knowledge of various countries and their manufacturing firms was an asset. Within two years we had put up working prototypes of centrifuges and were going at full speed to build the facilities at Kahuta."

They let him go probably because they thought the weapons might be used against India, which was closer to the Soviets politically than to the US at the time:

quote:

"This was part of a long-term foolish strategy. The US knew Pakistan was developing nuclear weapons but couldn't care less because it was not going to be used against them. It was a deterrent against India and possibly the Soviets."

tl;dr, the reason important nuclear technology proliferated to North Korea is a direct result of the shortsighted stupidity of the US government.

Mulva
Sep 13, 2011
It's about time for my once per decade ban for being a consistently terrible poster.
In retrospect giving a gently caress about Communism was the stupidest thing the United States ever did, and boy howdy was that a long list to top.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Mulva posted:

In retrospect giving a gently caress about Communism was the stupidest thing the United States ever did, and boy howdy was that a long list to top.
South Korea Simulates Attack on North Korea’s Nuclear Site After Test
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-claims-h-bomb-test-experts-urge-trump-talks-n798431

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Grouchio posted:

If it's a preemptive attack it's the stupidest option they could've done.

There has to be a better reason...

If this was a rational country, you could say that a nuclear deterrent is basically useless unless it's ready to fire at any time. However if that was the case, you'd think they would loudly announce it as such.

I half expect them to be waiting for some political event to announce that they have activated an automated deterrence system. But that's just the Dr. Strangelove fan in me talking.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Shibawanko posted:

I live in Japan, though. Half my family does. I don't want a loving nuclear missile on my city. Of course I want them to negotiate.

Besides, you did more or less the same thing in the late 90's anyway, so it wouldn't break any kind of precedent. The north had missiles and nukes, Albright went there, they agreed to a deal involving fuel shipments, normalizing relations and building light water reactors in place of conventional nuclear reactors in exchange for disarmament, Kim Jong Il agreed to that, and the North didn't develop nuclear power in the late 90's even though congress failed to agree on lifting sanctions per the agreement and then Bush showed up and everything went out the window. North Korea could have been like Cuba, a state with which the US doesn't agree and which lies outside of its sphere of influence, but which isn't directly hostile, but that chance was missed. I don't count on Trump doing anything good, but the obvious course of action would be another agreement like this, similar to the Iran deal. This would be nothing new.

They had long range missiles but didn't have nuclear weapons until shortly after pulling out of the agreement you are referencing. They also never paused the weapons program despite the agreement, so I'm not sure why you think they'd do it now.

Clinton was aware of the continuing nuclear weapons program and general noncompliance prior to his leaving office, which is why the LWR work (which was supposed to be contingent on NK meeting conditions) wasn't given a priority until Bush was dumb enough to give NK the benefit of the doubt and started waiving the requirements for various things to try to get some movement by NK on other parts of the agreement. Bush actually significantly sweetened the deal for NK and poo poo still broke down immediately when he tried to get inspectors in and later pointed out evidence of the ongoing nuclear weapons program after that got repeatedly stonewalled.

The only part of the terms NK actually complied with was the easily observable and easily reversed shutdown (but not disabling) of the reactor and the packaging (but not removal or shipping) of the spent nuclear fuel. It took about a month to get the reactor back online and processing the nicely sorted and packaged spent fuel when NK withdrew.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Sep 4, 2017

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Ynglaur posted:

Showing Russia we can't be trusted with nuclear treaties is a poor exchange. A nuclear war on the Korean peninsula would be horrible, but Russia and the US could end the human race.

Lets just all hope that things settle into some kind of peaceful steady state.

Yeah I'm not seeing what's supposed to be the advantage here versus using the subs that are already stocked with nuclear missiles? Seems like putting nukes onto the ones that we normally run without any nukes on them is just weird more than anything else.

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

fishmech posted:

Yeah I'm not seeing what's supposed to be the advantage here versus using the subs that are already stocked with nuclear missiles? Seems like putting nukes onto the ones that we normally run without any nukes on them is just weird more than anything else.

I think the idea is that Russia and China won't mistake a cruise missile for a ballistic missile coming their way, because that's something that people in this thread are really loving worried about for some reason.

maskenfreiheit
Dec 30, 2004
anyone notice assange gave himself a fake verified mark using emoji lmfao

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/904725764507144192

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

maskenfreiheit posted:

anyone notice assange gave himself a fake verified mark using emoji lmfao

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/904725764507144192

what a tankie prick. hope he gets black bagged one day.

maskenfreiheit
Dec 30, 2004

Dapper_Swindler posted:

what a tankie prick. hope he gets black bagged one day.

yeah let's kill everyone who critisizes usa. drone snowden. Nuke greenwald! USA! USA!

:/

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Assange is literally a russian stooge.

maskenfreiheit
Dec 30, 2004

Conspiratiorist posted:

Assange is literally a russian stooge.

doesn't mean we can kill him

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

maskenfreiheit posted:

doesn't mean we can kill him

Russia assassinates people in London all the time, so I don't see why not.

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

Oh my god shut up.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Conspiratiorist posted:

Assange is literally a russian stooge.

He is, and it's a great reason to dislike him and question the motives if not veracity of information coming from him.

Not a great reason to murder him, though. Maybe extradite to Sweden to face his sexual assault charges...

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
For reference I don't endorse murder but I wouldn't feel bad about it.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ab0d_story.html

quote:

SEOUL — South Korea’s defense minister on Monday said it was worth reviewing the redeployment of American tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula to guard against the North, a step that analysts warn would sharply increase the risk of an accidental conflict.

China and Russia are gonna be livid if we redeploy nukes to South Korea.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
Please tell me things will get better... or at least that North Korea won't try to take out ALL of Japan or South Korea

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Willo567 posted:

Please tell me things will get better... or at least that North Korea won't try to take out ALL of Japan or South Korea

North Korea is very unlikely to take out Dokdo.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

fishmech posted:

North Korea is very unlikely to take out Dokdo.

I'm being serious. Would they actually try to take all of Japan and South Korea with them?

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Willo567 posted:

I'm being serious. Would they actually try to take all of Japan and South Korea with them?

You don't really seem to get how big Japan is, even just the core islands.



Let us imagine you had a whole bunch of copies of the largest thermonuclear weapon ever exploded, the Soviet Tsar Bomba. The effective radius at which that bomb ended up destroying some wooden homes and other structures from the effects of the blast and heat pulse was ~200 kilometers, or 120 miles, although for completely destroying solidly built stone and concrete buildings the zone of destruction didn't go much more than 35 miles. So we're talking like 40 perfectly aimed bombs at least to lay a trail of destruction all the way up the home islands and still missing a bunch of the major cities - with the largest yield bomb ever.

fishmech fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Sep 4, 2017

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Willo567 posted:

I'm being serious. Would they actually try to take all of Japan and South Korea with them?

i think they would gently caress up seoul and northern japan and possibly tokyo.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

OhFunny posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ab0d_story.html


China and Russia are gonna be livid if we redeploy nukes to South Korea.

Well the Chinese should have thought about reigning the North in before things got this far. This is a very predictable escalation. It's not a surprise.

maskenfreiheit
Dec 30, 2004

Willo567 posted:

Please tell me things will get better... or at least that North Korea won't try to take out ALL of Japan or South Korea

I mean, it's a safe assumption we have a few subs parked and ready to go, isn't it?

Plus the carrier group, IIRC?

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Charlz Guybon posted:

Well the Chinese should have thought about reigning the North in before things got this far. This is a very predictable escalation. It's not a surprise.

i guess i dont understand why they didnt put them inline earlier. i get that NK acts as a buffer state and a cheaper labor source and etc but why didnt they just quietly "remove" Un and put a some better puppet in charge and deseclate the tentions and try to open the country up and turn it into a mini china type state.

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hailthefish
Oct 24, 2010

China doesn't have that amount of control. Or at least, not enough to do that non-militarily, and why would they want to open the can of worms of doing it militarily?

They can decrease and increase the amount of trade they're willing to do with NK and use that as leverage to get what they want, but as has been seen over the last 60 goddamn years, that's a tactic that has very mixed results.

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