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  • Locked thread
Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

I guess everyone is as invested as I am at this stage but at some point today Paul used the POV on Alex and Kevin went up. Jason and Alex think Kevin is the target and Paul reassured Kevin that he's fine and to just play like he's going home. I have no details or opinion because I didn't turn the feeds on today and ain't gonna start now.
I haven't watched since the Jody Drama Show and why should I? You have been a better source of information... doing the Lord's work and all. But, wouldn't this move be the presence of a small kink in the Teflon armor of Paul?

I guess he had to do it so to keep playing his ping-pong alliance game but @F7 Paul might very well be showing his cards too hastily. Christmas has been onto Paul's ruse for awhile now.

If ever there was a time to flip the script, now would be that time but it won't happen because the dumb-dumbs will look to Paul for sage advice.

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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Christmas and Josh have been onto Paul for awhile and have had multiple conversations about how Paul is covering his own rear end, letting them take the heat, and playing all sides. But really, what can they do about it? You can't make Paul not use the POV and you can't put him up. Even if he hadn't won the POV you couldn't put him up and get him out without dividing the house and risking him staying. And even if you got him out you'd be leaving in the massive comp threat of Alex and Jason who you just put on the block. The best case scenario is working with them to F4 and how will that work out for Josh and the one legged woman?

Working with Paul is a mutually beneficial thing for Christmas/Josh, I think. Paul is using them as shields and potential goats, they're using him as a bridge to the other players who hopefully directs them away from targeting Christmas/Josh because they're goats/shields. They all seem to know the risks and the situation, its just in each other's best interests to stick with it. There's one way you can trust someone to stay loyal in a game like this. If staying loyal is what benefits them the most. In this case I think that's where Paul and Josh/Christmas are at.

Alex and Jason basically just think they have the same deal as Christmas/Josh with Paul. That's kind of dumb since they should recognize they're massive threats and went on the block together this week, but they're too arrogant about their games right now to see that they aren't playing everyone. Paul is a blindspot for them but he's there taking Alex off the block so really the bigger blindspot is with them not realizing Christmas and Josh are together and targeting them.

Raven's a dummy for wanting to take Paul to F2 even though she knows she'll lose to him, but she's also kind of optionless at this stage. She'd be a third wheel with Josh/Christmas or Alex/Jason and Kevin hates her and is pretty useless. Same with Kevin, really. He's desperate and you take the hand that reaches out to you even if you know its shaky. You gotta survive somehow.

Everyone wants to be all "dummies, dummies, take out Paul" but Paul's strength this season is playing himself into a position where it doesn't really benefit anyone to take him out before F3 or F4. That's a dangerous game to play but as long as you have massive threats like Alex and Jason there he's still a tentative ally with a bigger threat before him.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

I guess everyone is as invested as I am at this stage but at some point today Paul used the POV on Alex and Kevin went up. Jason and Alex think Kevin is the target and Paul reassured Kevin that he's fine and to just play like he's going home. I have no details or opinion because I didn't turn the feeds on today and ain't gonna start now.
I guess when Jason "passed out" during the nomination ceremony he also blacked out the nom speech that more or less said straight up that he was the target.

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


https://mobile.twitter.com/MizDonDraper/status/905766550661160961/video/1

Hell, same

Eltoasto
Aug 26, 2002

We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust.



haha wowwww Christmas is in loooooooooove with Paul

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
That seems to be edited? There is a longer version with out the cuts where it seems she is talking about being on the show in general.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=458gJP2Tvdo

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, it sounds more like her talking about personal vs game in general and the hard feelings that come from necessary game moves and the emotional trauma of staying guarded and paranoid about everyone all summer. Its probably a lot of the same guilt Josh was feeling about blindsiding Jason (she just handles it better than Josh) and maybe some extra stress about her clashing with Josh this week over Paul and trying to hold that trio of friends together and knowing there's about to be a clash.

Plus she ended an engagement just before the show so she's got unresolved poo poo happening on the outside.

And who knows? Maybe Christmas has a crush on Paul. She's always been affectionate with him going back to Week 1. I don't know or care but that first clip was clearly selectively edited to make that seem more clear than in the real clip. All I care is whether she makes the right move when the time comes.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I watched the shows late and missed the post show fallout on the feeds. Sounds like Alex swore a F2 with Paul and Josh/Christmas clashed a little over Paul and the Kevin vote but ended up back on page with Paul for the HOH. Paul says he got Kevin to agree to throw the HOH so one of the three should be a lock. Normally I'd say Paul is throwing since F4 is the HOH you want to be free to play but that was a chaotic hour and Paul not be safe as he'd like to be at this stage.

They're doing HOH now.

Jason's interview is kind of babbling as he's pretty confused about what happened and the double sidedness of "we agreed to bring competitors to the end" and "I got betrayed by those counterfeit bastards" and all his previous snake moves. He thinks Alex was in on it with Paul to betray him. He says he would have used the POV on Alex if he had won because it would be "the man card thing to do" and he'd feel like a "super tool" if he did that and went home. Jason clueing in that Kevin was warning him all week that he was the target and Jason brushed it off all week to patronize Kevin because he didn't want to make him feel bad. Jason's going to buy Paul a ticket to come visit him so he can put him on a bull and give him some pain. "I think he deserves a little pain. A lot of pain." He wants Christmas to win the game because he thinks that would be the "biggest joke on everyone" and she would be a bad rear end player if she had two legs, "even though I'd like to hold her head under water for 5 minutes." Jason's pretty bitter and saying he won't be friends with most (most notably Alex_ outside the house. I think he'd probably get past this on his own but in a Jury House with Cody, Mark, and Elena they could really stoke the flames. Christmas is oddly the least burned he seems to feel and that's probably a testament to why its better to stab someone in the front than in the back.

Jason: "Would I do anything different if I had it to do over again?" Geez... I don't think we have enough time.

Raven thinks she was taken out because she played a great social game and would have been a huge Jury vote. "They didn't want to sit against me, hell I wouldn't." Oh, honey. She feels most shocked by Christmas and says she wouldn't look her in the eyes. She doesn't seem bitter much at all. She wants Paul to win and is a lock for him right now. Maybe that changes if she finds out stuff in Jury but I have my doubts. She lists Paul as the only person as loyal as Maven. She'd do nothing different if she could go back. No regrets. Raven makes me sad. And then I get very tired of her.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Josh won HOH.

Ideal scenario if we're hoping for someone going rogue and targeting Paul. Christmas might talk him out of it but this is arguably the right time to make the move. Its not great leaving Alex in there to potentially comp beast to the end but its not great to leave Paul in that position either.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
The big choice is target Paul and leave Alex to very likely win next HOH, or target Alex and leave Paul to very likely win the next HOH. Either way, Christmas or Josh HAVE to win final 4 veto not matter who wins HOH.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah. The right move is probably to put Alex and Paul next to each other and make sure you can send one home. Let the POV play out and figure it out if they're both left standing. But you don't want to leave Paul off and have him use POV on Alex.

Paul won't like that and you can't sell him as a "strong pawn" or anything. Josh could say "you've never been on the block or anything" but at F5 none of that stuff will sell a pawn and its all about your own game. "Drawing lines" isn't even really a thing since as you said F4 comes down to POV and at that stage even if Paul or Alex win that they'll pick who they want in F3 with them even if those people backstabbed them week before.

The question is will Josh see that and make the move? And will Christmas get on board? She was shaky about it last week but they jumped from F7 to F4 in a couple of hours so she may not think she "needs" Paul anymore. That's the thing to see.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Sep 8, 2017

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Alex has on a super hero costume. Sounds like it was a questions & answers comp about the Revengers thing. Alex is very not fat (thanks for the high level atmosphere of BB19, Jody and Paul).


Alex: Yeah, I can see why they call me a hooker.

Kevin threw HOH again and is pestering Paul about how he did what he asked him to do and showed how good a soldier he is. Paul is his usual "good job, now leave me alone and learn your place" self.

Alex says if Kevin has Josh's ear they're all hosed. Christmas and Paul assure her Josh hates Kevin. Alex seems still very lost.

General stressing about if they're liked, if they voted out all the season's favorites, what kind of reactions Jason and Raven got, etc. They discuss the angry exits of Raven and Jason. They're all a little weirded out by how pissed Jason was at everyone including Alex and left "like Cody." They're all kind of annoyed at Raven and how she stormed out pissed and immediately did a 180 outside and did flips. Christmas says that's what she does, "performs." Christmas says she snapped at Raven during the live show and feels bad and hopes it wasn't on camera. Apparently Raven was harassing her right after the Jason eviction and asking Christmas to comfort her and Christmas snapped that she needed a moment for herself or something. That shifts into general Raven bashing now that they can do it openly and all the usual complaints about Raven's behavior and stuff.

They reason out that the POV will probably be the comic book one. That seems like a solid theory.

They're all at that point we're they're sick of the game, can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and can't wait to be free. Josh notes that it feels extra long because of that whole Jody Battleback/Hex pause of the game. Paul naturally is a dick and mocks Josh for stating the obvious and then pats himself on the back for "taking the reigns" and "dealing with that himself" since "no one else would." Paul is either going to poison this jury completely Hantz style or brainwash them Boston Rob style.

Mr. Pectacular, Austin, and Victor are all apparently in the Revengers. Nicole and Frankie get mentioned. I saw them in the clip with Caleb and James.

Christmas' foot got a little bloody from the POV comp. I was surprised she was allowed to participate in that and was going full out. She's icing it and doesn't seem in a ton of pain or anything, but she might have pushed herself too far. I read something about how she was talking about signing a waiver so she could compete without the boot and Josh was trying to talk her out of it.

Paul tells Christmas something about he told Kevin he was going to win but then he threw to Paul so Christmas has to cover with something? I can't follow. Paul's game is so unnecessarily complicated with lies.

Paul again assuring Kevin he's good and Alex is the target. Kevin correctly surmises that Josh won't risk Christmas and asks if he's a goner if Alex wins POV. Paul brushes it off and tells Kevin to not think so much.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Josh tells Kevin to "tranquillo." Kevin is confused. Josh says he loves Kevin and to stay calm but Paul interrupts them.

Sounds like Frank and Dan might have been in the Revengers too?

Paul, Christmas, and Josh plotting that they succeeded and its only 1 leg left. Christmas saying if Alex doesn't go this week they won't make F3 together. Josh says to keep Kevin thinking they're going against each other. Paul wants Josh to call out Kevin. Paul's whispering the sort of stuff he wants Josh to say to Kevin too low for me to hear and Josh says he'd never stoop that low and say those sort of things. I can't be bothered to go back and try and here. This all sounds very sincere but Josh and Christmas have proven themselves to be good liars, so who knows? We won't know what Josh is planning until he gets alone with Christmas.

Paul boasting to Christmas that his plan worked and he convinced Alex to ignore Josh and Christmas and target Kevin and Raven. Its Paul so that could be a lie, but its Alex so it could be true. Now boasting to Josh. Josh talking about how harsh Paul's poo poo was and Paul browbeating him about how he's an idiot for doubting him and it worked.

I can't take Paul. I'll find out what Josh wants to do later.

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

I really, really hope Paul does not win.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

ToastyPotato posted:

The big choice is target Paul and leave Alex to very likely win next HOH, or target Alex and leave Paul to very likely win the next HOH. Either way, Christmas or Josh HAVE to win final 4 veto not matter who wins HOH.

Not necessarily, because if Paul has the veto at Final 4 he seems to be leaning towards taking out Kevin and going to the Final 3 with Josh and Christmas.

I'm actually undecided if it really makes sense for Josh to go after Paul here. Leaving Paul in he can almost certainly get to a Final 3 of Christmas/Josh/Paul, and then he just needs to win the last HoH to get Paul out and he wins the game. If we assume the HoH will essentially be a coin-toss between Paul and Josh (since Christmas probably can't compete in Part 1 or 2), then Josh has maybe a ~50% chance of winning the game here (assuming he takes and beats Christmas).

On the other hand, taking out Paul makes Final 4 and 3 much more chaotic since Alex will be a bit of a wildcard depending on how she handles Paul's eviction. There is a much higher risk of him or Christmas leaving at 4, and in a Final 3 of Kevin/Alex/Josh it's not quite clear who would be favored to win which parts and who would take who to the Final 2. I'm sure there are some paths that open up here where Josh can win the game without winning Final 3 HoH so in some sense it's better than the previous option, but it's tricky to actually estimate how likely those paths are.

mallratcal
Sep 10, 2003


Professor Shark posted:

I really, really hope Paul does not win.

Agreed. I'm happy with Christmas, Josh or Alex.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

mancalamania posted:

Not necessarily, because if Paul has the veto at Final 4 he seems to be leaning towards taking out Kevin and going to the Final 3 with Josh and Christmas.

I'm actually undecided if it really makes sense for Josh to go after Paul here. Leaving Paul in he can almost certainly get to a Final 3 of Christmas/Josh/Paul, and then he just needs to win the last HoH to get Paul out and he wins the game. If we assume the HoH will essentially be a coin-toss between Paul and Josh (since Christmas probably can't compete in Part 1 or 2), then Josh has maybe a ~50% chance of winning the game here (assuming he takes and beats Christmas).

On the other hand, taking out Paul makes Final 4 and 3 much more chaotic since Alex will be a bit of a wildcard depending on how she handles Paul's eviction. There is a much higher risk of him or Christmas leaving at 4, and in a Final 3 of Kevin/Alex/Josh it's not quite clear who would be favored to win which parts and who would take who to the Final 2. I'm sure there are some paths that open up here where Josh can win the game without winning Final 3 HoH so in some sense it's better than the previous option, but it's tricky to actually estimate how likely those paths are.

I do not have much faith that Paul, if faced with the choice of Kevin or Josh or even Alex, will choose to evict Kevin. Paul is very much thinking about winning comps at this point, so I think Christmas is mostly safe, but I don't feel the same for Josh. Paul might be saying he wants to remain true to his group, but I dunno if he holds to that, as he has a habit of looking for any excuse to cut ties with people. If Josh manage to bounce Alex this week and Paul isn't on board, that would be all the excuse Paul needs to change his plan.

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


I don't understand Paul's going away message to Jason for jury management. Doesn't Paul know that they will watch what happened and he'll know that Paul orchestrated the whole thing? Taking credit for stealthily eliminating everyone without :rolleyes: blood on his hands :rolleyes: to people in the house is a better way to go, I think.

Paul better win this.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I still think Paul is absolutely wrecking these doofuses at the game but yeah lying in a goodbye message is just dumb as hell. Raven walked out of the house like 30 minutes after Jason did and she knew everything. Lots of people knew everything. It was always going to come out, lying in the goodbye message is just adding insult to injury, it's like Paul is trying to burn jury votes. I have to wonder what he was thinking. Power tripping so high that he thinks his mist extends to the jury house? He's super lucky that the first three people into the jury are gonna be telling new jurors it's their own fault instead of enabling their bitterness and saying Paul is evil. But these new jurors are more and more likely to be pretty pissed at him so who knows.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
I think Paul just isn't thinking about jury management and has no idea why he lost last year, like Russell when he lost back-to-back Survivor finales. He's not as overtly obnoxious as Russell, but he's also not doing himself any favors.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

ToastyPotato posted:

I do not have much faith that Paul, if faced with the choice of Kevin or Josh or even Alex, will choose to evict Kevin. Paul is very much thinking about winning comps at this point, so I think Christmas is mostly safe, but I don't feel the same for Josh. Paul might be saying he wants to remain true to his group, but I dunno if he holds to that, as he has a habit of looking for any excuse to cut ties with people. If Josh manage to bounce Alex this week and Paul isn't on board, that would be all the excuse Paul needs to change his plan.

Yeah but by the time Paul would be voting at Final 4 the only comp left will be the Final 3 HoH and everyone is generally working under the assumptions that (1) Christmas will be a non-factor in Parts 1 and 2 because they are usually physical, (2) Part 3 is a crap shoot. So for Paul, facing off against Kevin in Part 3 of the Final 3 HoH is no different then facing off against Josh, regardless of how much better Josh would be than Kevin in 90% of comps. He gains almost nothing by voting out Josh over Kevin at 4, but risks burning the jury (not just Josh and Christmas, but every juror that Paul got riled up to hate Kevin for no reason and is mad that Kevin's still around).

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
True, but then there is always Paul's habit of overplaying and making bad decisions to explain him doing the other thing.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Everything Paul does is centered around the belief that he is a genius mastermind and everyone else is retarded.

He lied in the message to Jason because he's incapable of believing he's not the smartest person in the world.

Token Female
Apr 2, 2007

If I hear the music...
Alex and Kevin have been nominated

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

sportsgenius86 posted:

Everything Paul does is centered around the belief that he is a genius mastermind and everyone else is retarded.

He lied in the message to Jason because he's incapable of believing he's not the smartest person in the world.

To be fair, he benefited from a psychopath being safe for two months.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
Paul won veto.

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD

Teek posted:

Paul won veto.

Worst season?

Worst season.

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

Teek posted:

Paul won veto.
Soooo, use veto on Alex and force Josh to put up Xtree thereby having absolute voting control with Paul and Alex?

I think that's how it will go... and then Paul will sidle up with Alex and begin Operation: Character Assassination Josh as they bounce Kevin to set up F4 with a gimpy Xtree and an emotionally shattered Josh that has to sit back and watch it all happen.

gently caress you, Grodner. Just gently caress you for the 3 week gift of safety but equally gently caress you cast for all taking the bait.

Mahoning
Feb 3, 2007
I just had a thought about Hurricane Irma and Josh. Does he have any idea? Couldn't they try to get an "I'm ok" message to Josh from his family?

Seems kinda heartless to after the fact be like "oh hey by the way the strongest hurricane ever recorded hammered Florida and everything you own may be ruined and we're not really sure about your family. Good luck!"

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


Mahoning posted:

I just had a thought about Hurricane Irma and Josh. Does he have any idea? Couldn't they try to get an "I'm ok" message to Josh from his family?

Seems kinda heartless to after the fact be like "oh hey by the way the strongest hurricane ever recorded hammered Florida and everything you own may be ruined and we're not really sure about your family. Good luck!"

I'm pretty sure you get a (monitored, weird, East German) family call in jury, so if he gets booted he'll find out about it. Did they do a Josh family segment on TV yet?

The game is always so tense and lovely, especially in this stage, that the absolute last thing you should want is a "btw there was a hurricane" message. If your family's fine you want to know if your stuff is fine, if your stuff is fine you want to know if your buddies are fine, if your buddies are fine you want to know if their families are fine and if their stuff is fine. He might be mad at CBS after the show for not saying anything, and I would totally understand that, but I think they're right to follow their procedure and let him focus on the game, there's straight up nothing he can do about Irma anyway.

Fat Lowtax fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Sep 10, 2017

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
They broke for 9/11, Katrina, and the marathon bombing if I'm not mistaken.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

Robnoxious posted:

Soooo, use veto on Alex and force Josh to put up Xtree thereby having absolute voting control with Paul and Alex?

I think that's how it will go... and then Paul will sidle up with Alex and begin Operation: Character Assassination Josh as they bounce Kevin to set up F4 with a gimpy Xtree and an emotionally shattered Josh that has to sit back and watch it all happen.

gently caress you, Grodner. Just gently caress you for the 3 week gift of safety but equally gently caress you cast for all taking the bait.

If Paul doesn't win the show literally none of that matters.

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen

Pillowpants posted:

They broke for 9/11, Katrina, and the marathon bombing if I'm not mistaken.

I know they for sure did on 9/11 because they showed the final 3 in DR as a producer was telling them. One of the F3 lost a cousin in the attacks.

Are you sure about the Marathon bombing? Because that would have been in April and no BB at that time. unless it was during S9 but it was years after that I thought.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

They also did it for the OTT cast with the election.

the truth
Dec 16, 2007

Max posted:

They also did it for the OTT cast with the election.

How did they react? Did anyone watch that season?

Max
Nov 30, 2002

the truth posted:

How did they react? Did anyone watch that season?

Julie plays it really well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjBkzUT8E_M

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012


Haha this is great

AbandonShip
Dec 25, 2007

Mahoning posted:

I just had a thought about Hurricane Irma and Josh. Does he have any idea? Couldn't they try to get an "I'm ok" message to Josh from his family?

Seems kinda heartless to after the fact be like "oh hey by the way the strongest hurricane ever recorded hammered Florida and everything you own may be ruined and we're not really sure about your family. Good luck!"

I read that his family did need to evacuate, but they decided not to let him know because they didnt want him worrying.

Edit: https://twitter.com/JOSHMBB19/status/905881054149529600

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


Was Elena taking the 5k from Alex the best non-Paul game move of the season? Think about it: she did something kinda risky, to win money, for herself.

Kevin too, but like half the house pressed the button.

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ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
It was dumb because she could have taken the veto instead and not gone home. I don't see how anyone can reasonably spin not saving yourself for 5k as a good move. For more money, maybe, like the 25k, but for 5k? They already made nearly 2k a week just being there.

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