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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't completely blame Jason's saltiness. They blindsided him hard and he spent half the season doubting Paul and half the week convinced he was the target and Alex talked him out of it. I mean, hell, even Christmas seemed surprised that he didn't know he was the target after her nomination speech. So he was somewhat understandably skeptical about Alex herself for "blindsiding" him, which would be fair if you thought Alex wasn't dumb and just blindsided herself... which Jason did because he too was dumb.

As for Paul I think there's a difference between "running" or "controlling" the house and just being super safe and social. Andy played a very similar game to Paul and had a lot of influence over things the way Paul did (with about the same amount of failure too). But no one calls him a mastermind or says he ran the game. He didn't. He played a good individual game that worked around the people "running" things. The difference with Paul is that there weren't really those powerful players ostensibly "running" things and instead Paul was just working around a bunch of duos. Andy had Helen, Amanda, Elissa, and Aaryn while Paul had Jason/Alex, Marlena, Jody, and Christmas/Josh.

If I had to categorize him I'd call him a cross between Andy and Vanessa. He played the Andy social snake game but he also drew up a web of parachutes like Vanessa tried to. Andy was basically flying blind a lot of the time for end game scenarios and the Exterminators just kind of worked out for him perfectly, while Vanessa had a lot of real "control" and "masterminding" that Paul didn't and was actually way more loyal than Paul.

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bagrada
Aug 4, 2007

The Demogorgon is tired of your silly human bickering!

Who are the America's Favorite candidates? Paul (lol), Christmas, Kevin and Cody? Anyone else have a chance?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Ugh Cody has that whole online fan push from the people who have convinced themselves he did nothing wrong and everything is Paul's fault.

I don't know who else would be a favorite and sadly it could result in a Cody win because there's no focused alternative. Paul has his fans. Kevin has his. I could see Christmas, Jason, Alex, and even Josh having fanbases. But none of them seem that big and easy to call a favorite and there's been no big moves or moments to draw the votes.

I hadn't put much thought to this and all this "AFP Cody" talk is really bumming me out because it seems super plausible.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

bagrada posted:

Who are the America's Favorite candidates? Paul (lol), Christmas, Kevin and Cody? Anyone else have a chance?

Jess and Cody actually did have a fan base. But Probably Kevin at this point.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.

Max posted:

Best position for him I suppose, he doesn't have to vote and can shrug at whoever gets booted, unless he's dumb enough to win veto.

Paul won veto.

Sounds like he won't be using it and Christmas will be voting out Kevin.

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

STAC Goat posted:

I don't completely blame Jason's saltiness. They blindsided him hard and he spent half the season doubting Paul and half the week convinced he was the target and Alex talked him out of it. I mean, hell, even Christmas seemed surprised that he didn't know he was the target after her nomination speech. So he was somewhat understandably skeptical about Alex herself for "blindsiding" him, which would be fair if you thought Alex wasn't dumb and just blindsided herself... which Jason did because he too was dumb.

As for Paul I think there's a difference between "running" or "controlling" the house and just being super safe and social. Andy played a very similar game to Paul and had a lot of influence over things the way Paul did (with about the same amount of failure too). But no one calls him a mastermind or says he ran the game. He didn't. He played a good individual game that worked around the people "running" things. The difference with Paul is that there weren't really those powerful players ostensibly "running" things and instead Paul was just working around a bunch of duos. Andy had Helen, Amanda, Elissa, and Aaryn while Paul had Jason/Alex, Marlena, Jody, and Christmas/Josh.

If I had to categorize him I'd call him a cross between Andy and Vanessa. He played the Andy social snake game but he also drew up a web of parachutes like Vanessa tried to. Andy was basically flying blind a lot of the time for end game scenarios and the Exterminators just kind of worked out for him perfectly, while Vanessa had a lot of real "control" and "masterminding" that Paul didn't and was actually way more loyal than Paul.

Oh I'd 100% be as salty as Jason if I was him.

As for Paul, maybe it was the edit, but he seemed to be in everyone's ear and suggesting noms and planning everything out. When things got dicey he was always good at talking people down from making decisions that didn't go along with his plan. I feel like he isn't a supreme dominator, but that he did more than just set up some parachutes.

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


Paul wants to take Josh to F2?

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
All the noms and evictions through to Mark and Elena were mutually beneficial to everyone involved, and the most he did was keep people focused on getting Jess and Cody out instead of blindsiding Elena early, which is less him being dominate, and more him having more than two brain cells to rub together. Matt was arguably the first person that wasn't a super clear target, but keep in mind, Paul was pushing for Kevin to be on the block right next to Matt, and he didn't get that. Jason was another very easy nom and eviction, and Raven was probably the most Paul based vote we've had so far.

Paul was definitely considering Josh at F2 because I think he thinks the jury would hate Josh more than him. He might be worried Christmas is too likeable and her story might be too good.

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

ToastyPotato posted:

All the noms and evictions through to Mark and Elena were mutually beneficial to everyone involved, and the most he did was keep people focused on getting Jess and Cody out instead of blindsiding Elena early, which is less him being dominate, and more him having more than two brain cells to rub together. Matt was arguably the first person that wasn't a super clear target, but keep in mind, Paul was pushing for Kevin to be on the block right next to Matt, and he didn't get that. Jason was another very easy nom and eviction, and Raven was probably the most Paul based vote we've had so far.

Paul was definitely considering Josh at F2 because I think he thinks the jury would hate Josh more than him. He might be worried Christmas is too likeable and her story might be too good.

I think Christmas easily beats Paul and Josh not so much. Josh has so many people that don't like him and those that don't care would just see him as Paul's stooge so I think he has to take Josh (or Kevin lol).

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Faustian Bargain posted:

Paul wants to take Josh to F2?

Yes because much like last year he's going to take the wrong person to F2 with him.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Josh wouldn't really be the wrong person to be sitting next to at the end...

The only problem is Josh is the only guy willing to cut him at 3.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

I mean Christmas has no shot at making that happen since I cannot believe she'll be able to compete in F3, so for her I'm sure it shakes out either way.

spanky69
Nov 5, 2004
I THINK sba HAS LOST HIS MIND. WOOOOOO DOGGIES PUPPIES KITTENS CRAP TURDS, love sba
Fun Shoe
Yeah BB has a big issue here as parts 1 might take about 30 seconds then Part 2 will just be "Well Christmas isn't medically cleared" so Paul will face Josh in Part 3. Friday's ep - here is 30 minutes of the Jury fighting

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOAMtMBui1A

This is basically just a mad-lib to me

Bloops Crusts
Aug 14, 2016
I'm giving all my votes to Kevin. Fully expecting Cody AFP because the people on Jokers are poo poo.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate
Taking Josh or Xmas to finally 2 is risky as gently caress and I kind of hope it backfires on Paul.

Xmas can claim she was hurt the whole game and had to get by social rather then physically like she should have. Josh has a decent win record and is less annoying the Paul to some of the skirt.

Get season if Paul loses twice finial 2.

Bucswabe
May 2, 2009
Though I am hoping for a miracle to take out Paul for the sake of climatic drama, there is no doubt that he played the best game. Though in my opinion, this has less to do with Paul being a mastermind, and everything to do with the weakness of literally every other player in the house.

The biggest failure of everyone other than Paul is that it seems like absolutely no one else was doing the ground work of connecting with outside groups to build trust. Paul approached every duo or team and positioned himself as one of them, while everyone else stayed insular and just counted on Paul to coordinate the targets each week. This season is really one of truly poor game play all around.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
CBS should rig the vote so it goes to anyone other than Cody. All of the stuff Cody has done that hasn't made it to the regular episodes is suddenly going to come under scrutiny and CBS will end up taking some heat over it, but also expose just how much certain players get protected by editing. From a PR perspective they should just give it to Jessica if Cody wins, or Kevin to play it safe.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

TyrantWD posted:

CBS should rig the vote so it goes to anyone other than Cody. All of the stuff Cody has done that hasn't made it to the regular episodes is suddenly going to come under scrutiny and CBS will end up taking some heat over it, but also expose just how much certain players get protected by editing. From a PR perspective they should just give it to Jessica if Cody wins, or Kevin to play it safe.

Jessica was nearly as bad as Cody.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I really think Paul loses to anyone but Christmas. The only person that he 100% would win against was Raven and well...lol he hosed that up. I think even Kevin would have a chance to win against Paul. Paul has burned a lot of people especially if people like Jason and Matt start to compare notes with each other it will be a bad day for Paul.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
Paul is going to have Alex, Raven and Matt voting for him no matter what most likely. Kevin would vote Christmas, but not likely vote Josh. Would Cody actually vote for Josh? I doubt it. He hates Paul, but has already admitted he kind of respects his game. He hates the rest of the house more. I can see Mark voting for Josh, and maybe even Elena, unless Cody convinces them not to. I can even see Jason possibly voting for Josh. I honestly do not know who Christmas would vote for between Paul and Josh. Josh likely votes for Christmas.

Josh gains strength if he wins final HOH, but then, he shouldn't be sat next to Paul so it doesn't matter.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The thing working in Paul's favor is the juror's egos. That was on full display with Raven's delusion that her alliance with Paul was somehow more real than anyone else's even though she was sitting there and Paul voted her out. Raven's nuts and deluded but that's ego because the alternative is admitting that you were an idiot and got played.

If Raven doesn't get there in the next week then she votes for Paul so she can walk away saying "I helped, we were a team." Or "at least I got beat by the best." I'd bet Alex, Kevin, and Cody are the same and I think Christmas might lean that way too. Jason, Matt, and Marlena are kind of wildcards but I could see them all doing the same thing because its a lot easier to dismiss Josh/Christmas as goats who got lucky that Paul picked them then to wrestle with the reality that Josh/Christmas were just better players/partners than them.

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


A full episode of the jury laughing at Raven for thinking she was doing anything game-wise would be quality. She was so mad at Mark for (rightfully) pointing out that Paul had the same deals with literally everyone.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
Raven genuinely makes me sad. Now I think back to her picture with Paul on instagram and worry that she actually believes they had some kind of connection. :(

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
Paul won part one of the final HOH. Not really a surpise. Christmas was cleared to compete though.

Bucswabe
May 2, 2009
Just a question as someone who doesn't watch the feeds: did Paul have any legitimate fear of being beside Kevin at the end of the game?

I get the point of staying loyal to Josh and Xmas, but there was definitely a compelling reason to keep Kevin going into final three.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC
Kevin had zero blood on his hands so if there were a good candidate for bitter jury, it would be Kevin. But realistically, not really. Either way, Paul wanted to be with people just as guilty as him, who he could also beat in final HOH.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, Kevin was looking like a big jury threat for a long time in the case of a bitter jury. He was for a very long time the most beloved HG and had a lot of the jurors talking about how they could vote for him over someone who betrayed them.

But he kind of blew that all up towards the end with his pair of big fights - the one that aired on tonight's episode where he lied about telling Matt about the money and just started attacking people and the slightly previous one where he threatened to throw a glass at Josh over the same basic subject. That really poisoned most of the house on Kevin personally and they had already soiled on him gamewise when he started sneaking around with Cody and they pieced together a lot of his early snake moves.

But by the time that all happened I think that F3 had pretty well locked in and Paul was openly talking about how they were his best chance to win. Kevin was way higher on the boot order at first but he just got strung along once everyone realized he wasn't throwing comps and playing dumb but was basically just exactly the ineffective player he appeared to be. It was the Johnny Mac Effect where a charming floater who does nothing significant and makes odd moves often gets mistaken for a sophisticated player laying low and throwing people off their plan. Once they realized Kevin was the former they just Victoria'd him.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

To no real surprise Josh won the second stage of the HOH. Christmas competed and apparently got close to winning.

Paul and Josh are apparently assuring each other they're taking each other, but I have no idea if Josh means that or is just placating Paul in case he wins. I would assume Josh both figures he has a better shot against Christmas and is just more loyal to her, but Christmas refusing to make that F2 with him could have damaged that loyalty with Josh.

Presumably Josh will talk to a camera at some stage but I haven't watched for weeks, have already cancelled my feeds, and can't be bothered.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
Aw, I don't think that's a fair shake for Johnny Mac. Maybe it's just because he has a bigger, louder personality, but I can't really point to anything he did and say he hosed up, whereas Kevin overplayed at a lot of bad, awkward times. I know Clelli and Austwins weren't exactly strategic powerhouses, but 17 had a ton of game to contend with and he made an okay place for himself.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I know this threads is for spoilers, but I'll tag this just in case since it's not from the feeds. There's some credible buzz online about how jury votes might go from the same person that first leaked Paul's return a week or so before the premiere (an insider tipping off Hamsterwatch both times):

Supposedly the jury segment was *not* misleading as people suspected and, in fact, everyone except Matt and Raven are very anti-Paul and as of now Matt/Raven would be the only votes for Paul to win.

Even if Kevin and the last juror vote Paul, that means he would still lose 5-4. Obviously it would only take one of those 5 to flip and give Paul the win, but at the very least it sounds like Paul has an uphill battle ahead of him on finale night (if he even gets to the Final 2). I wonder how the season will be remembered if Josh beats Paul in the Final 2, an outcome I don't think any of us thought was possible all season especially during that crazy first week.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

When I said "the Johnny Mac Effect" I mean this kind of thing that seems to happen where a player mostly floats but makes a few small head scratching game moves, and because there's no real obvious indication of why they made those moves fans kind of invent reasons and imagine them to be smarter players than they are because they're entertaining characters. Or HGs get paranoid and imagine more thought or strategy than is really behind what really are just dumb moves.

Its also what a friend of me once argued that the worst people for good poker players to play with are bad poker players because every random, dumb move the bad player does gets read too much into by the "good" player and throws them off as they try and figure out the non-existent game strategy.

Johnny Mac and Kevin were both charming but pretty dumb floaters who made a few early head scratching moves. Both ended up getting fans who imagined they might be secret geniuses playing low key games, which is why Johnny Mac was being compared to Dan Gheesling early on and Kevin was being built up as the one who was going to take down Paul.

And in the house the HGs saw some of the head scratching moves Kevin made and how he seemed to be "playing dumb" and seemed unbelievably inept at game strategy or comps so they just built him up in their minds as a guy who was hiding things and was going to turn it around or reveal some bigger strategy. Which is why he was getting targeted so early on after Jody and Marlena.

But eventually they realized Kevin was just who he seemed to be which is why he got dragged along to F4.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

mancalamania posted:

I know this threads is for spoilers, but I'll tag this just in case since it's not from the feeds. There's some credible buzz online about how jury votes might go from the same person that first leaked Paul's return a week or so before the premiere (an insider tipping off Hamsterwatch both times):

Supposedly the jury segment was *not* misleading as people suspected and, in fact, everyone except Matt and Raven are very anti-Paul and as of now Matt/Raven would be the only votes for Paul to win.

Even if Kevin and the last juror vote Paul, that means he would still lose 5-4. Obviously it would only take one of those 5 to flip and give Paul the win, but at the very least it sounds like Paul has an uphill battle ahead of him on finale night (if he even gets to the Final 2). I wonder how the season will be remembered if Josh beats Paul in the Final 2, an outcome I don't think any of us thought was possible all season especially during that crazy first week.


That's ultimately meaningless because no one's votes are locked in, voting is days away, we don't know who the final juror will be, and we don't know how the final questioning will go. They could be leaning one way now, but anything can happen between now and then and if Big Brother players are anything, it is inconsistent. That said, I hope it is true because that would be the only redeeming thing for the season.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I just find it very hard to imagine Cody, Mark, and Elena voting for Josh. Or Raven voting against Paul. That makes it tough math for Josh to beat Paul since he'd have to get Alex, Jason, Matt, Kevin, and Christmas.

I can't really comfortably predict anything because we don't know how much Paul's game is getting exposed in jury or how HGs like Raven, Matt, and Alex who SEEMED loyal to Paul even after eviction might reaction to knowledge that Paul was behind their evictions all along. Its just tough to tell and I don't really care about any "spoilers" since BB seems ripe with people trying to spread this stuff and, as Toasty said, even if there was someone in the Jury house leaking feelings or whatever none of those votes have been made.

But I really, really, really have a hard time picturing Cody and Mark voting for Josh. And probably Elena.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
I heard somewhere that Gronder openly said that this is a remarkably bitter jury.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

http://cartermatt.com/267698/big-brother-19-interview-allison-grodner-bitter-jury-bb-comics-finale/

quote:

From everything that you’ve seen, plus the segment we saw tonight, how would you describe the mood in the jury house right now?

Bitter…I don’t remember the last season where every single juror, with the exception of Cody, was clueless on the way out only to realize the truth about their eviction once in the jury house. Not only are they upset to have been played by those remaining in the BB game, they are very upset with the delusions and the mere presence of Maven.

Its a good point that effectively every juror besides Cody was blindsided or lied to on their way out the door. I think Mark might be the exception as I can't think of him being clueless about anything after the Elena eviction, but everyone else either didn't know they were leaving or didn't know Paul or someone else wasn't in on it. Maven and Alex are big question marks there as they not only didn't think Paul had anything to do with their evictions but seemed to remain loyal and confident that he was with them in the jury. Even Alex seemed to think Paul had only betrayed her at the end there and not before that with targeting her and Jason.

Its why its really hard to predict what form this jury's bitterness will take, IMO, because we don't know if the Jury has managed to convince them that Paul was screwing them all along and how they feel about it. For all we know Raven and Alex could still be clinging to their delusions about their alliances with Paul and just think the other was getting played.

With this house being as heated as its been all season it could lead to a really heated final jury sitdown if Christmas joins them. She'll argue that she, Josh, and Paul were working together all season to play all of them, Raven and Alex may well argue that THEY'RE alliances were the real ones, Cody and others will just argue that they were all getting played and they're all idiots, Christmas will take offense and point out her and Josh's HOHs and roles in moves and fights and such, no one will probably give an inch.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

Propaganda Machine posted:

I heard somewhere that Gronder openly said that this is a remarkably bitter jury.

Grodner's job is also hype her show so take it will a grain of salt. Like I said, they've got more than half a week before they even vote.


Edit: I also hate how they do the big jury meeting before the final juror gets there.

ToastyPotato fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Sep 17, 2017

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Its not some spoiler or shocking insight that the jury is "bitter." We know that if we've watched the show. Cody is bitter at the world. Mark and Elena were bitter weeks before they left the house. Matt showed emotion for the first time when he was headed out the door. Raven, Jason, and Kevin were all blindsided. Alex was furious. Whoever finishes 3rd is going to feel betrayed by someone. This has been an especially ugly season not just in the fights and nastiness but in the cutthroat gameplay that has left people feeling very cheated.

But just because its a bitter jury doesn't mean its going to go against Paul. Many of them have reasons to be angry at Christmas and Josh as well and for as angry as they are at Paul there's a real Andy/Nicole/Jun type of win setup for "I hate doing this but I hate the alternative more" brewing.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Cody will vote for whoever is against Paul because it's his last real chance to feel like he's gotten one over on Paul.

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patonthebach
Aug 22, 2016

by R. Guyovich
Paul's goodbye messages drive me crazy. Does he not realize people won't continue to believe in the jury house that the evictions are one big mysterious accident?

"If you are seeing this, it means Christmas went ROGUE"

I really hope his arrogance costs him the game, even though he was the best player this season, thats not saying a lot.

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