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Internet Explorer posted:Ok, cool. So the steps in your example are this: Paint happens > utility company work happens > pole falls down. With leaded gasoline we have: Leaded gasoline happens > ???? > bad things happen. What happens at step ???? In the example, both the poles being painted and the falling of the poles is being caused by the utility company. In the topic at hand, there could be a third thing that caused both increased exposure to lead and increased likelihood to commit crimes.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:25
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Deteriorata posted:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3829390/ as somebody in neuroscience, i don't find this paper particularly convincing, sorry it's pointing out a mismatch between the ecological and cohort studies, but it discusses flaws in the ecological studies while presenting the cohort studies as sound on their face. they are not necessarily so; the cohort studies were measuring conduct problems, inattentiveness, etc. at a clinically significant level. this is not necessarily relevant - you could have societally significant effects at sub-clinical levels of impulsiveness quite easily! this paper does not show its work sufficiently, it's mostly just presenting and asserting. Jizz Festival posted:I wonder what an overlay of this lead map and an income map would look like. Maybe lead makes people poor also? lead paint prevalence does correlate with income. however, atmospheric lead, by its nature, cannot, and that's what a measure of present-day soil lead levels is determining: historical atmospheric lead levels (as well as lead paint, probably) remember that leaded gasoline is not proposed as an explanation for all crime, but rather for the crime wave of the 60s-90s Jazerus fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Sep 19, 2017 |
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Sep 19, 2017 23:27
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Jizz Festival posted:In the example, both the poles being painted and the falling of the poles is being caused by the utility company. ....no, its been pretty well established that lead was linked to increase in crime.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:28
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PerniciousKnid posted:If there's a utility company going around painting poles that are to be cut down, you'll find a perfect correlation between paint and pole removal. That doesn't mean paint makes poles fall down. There is no logical mechanism by which they paint could fell the pole, whereas the effects of lead poisoning are pretty well researched and the causal link is definitely there. So the situations here are pretty darn different. Jizz Festival posted:In the topic at hand, there could be a third thing that caused both increased exposure to lead and increased likelihood to commit crimes. Sure, there could be. But until a plausible one is presented, one is justified in going with the best explanation available.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:30
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CommieGIR posted:....no, its been pretty well established that lead was linked to increase in crime. I'm explaining why simply overlaying a map of lead ppm and crime rates might not be telling the whole story. Lead can increase "criminalness" or whatever while also being concentrated in areas where crime rates are already going to be higher for other reasons.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:31
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Jizz Festival posted:I'm explaining why simply overlaying a map of lead ppm and crime rates might not be telling the whole story. Lead can increase "criminalness" or whatever while also being concentrated in areas where crime rates are already going to be higher for other reasons. Have you read the Mother Jones article that was linked earlier?
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Sep 19, 2017 23:32
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Jazerus posted:remember that leaded gasoline is not proposed as an explanation for all crime, but rather for the crime wave of the 60s-90s And this is the whole crux of the issue. That a complex sociological problem would have a single cause is silly and not supported by the data. No question that lead exposure is a bad thing for people, but that this significantly contributed to criminal activity is highly questionable. Lead and crime certainly correlate, but that is a long way from proving it's the cause. "What else could it be?" is just an appeal to ignorance fallacy.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:33
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Internet Explorer posted:Have you read the Mother Jones article that was linked earlier? Nope, nor do I plan on doing so.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:35
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Jizz Festival posted:Nope, nor do I plan on doing so. Cool, it's really interesting reading your mindless questions that are addressed in the article.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:38
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Internet Explorer posted:Cool, it's really interesting reading your mindless questions that are addressed in the article. Feel free to address them yourself rather than commanding me to read an article. Thanks.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:39
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Jizz Festival posted:Feel free to address them yourself rather than commanding me to read an article. Thanks. Lead affects your brain in negative ways. There's a really strong correlation between leaded gasoline and violence, even if that means the order is leaded gasoline > developmental issues > violence. They didn't simply overlay a map correlating the two, they were able to use the different timelines when different regions outlawed leaded gasoline to show that there is a link.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:42
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Leave it to goons to dissect the joke of "Thomas Midgley Jr. is a fucker and deseved getting polio."
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Sep 19, 2017 23:43
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Internet Explorer posted:Lead affects your brain in negative ways. There's a really strong correlation between leaded gasoline and violence, even if that means the order is leaded gasoline > developmental issues > violence. They didn't simply overlay a map correlating the two, they were able to use the different timelines when different regions outlawed leaded gasoline to show that there is a link. That sounds like a really dumb article. Thank you for saving me the time I would've wasted reading it.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:45
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Deteriorata posted:And this is the whole crux of the issue. That a complex sociological problem would have a single cause is silly and not supported by the data. errrr saying "what else could it be?" when you've controlled for the other plausible causes and still have a significant relationship is called coming to a conclusion my dude here, have a paper from last year that was written by 7 people instead of one dude and that actually does statistical analysis, controlling for poverty, and still finds a significant relationship between lead and crime http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935116301037 i'm going to be honest, being responded to as though i'm scientifically ignorant is really off-putting. you are not taking a pretty well supported hypothesis into account at all because it does not fit into your paradigm. is it likely to be the entire story? well, no. there was other stuff going on in that time period that certainly contributed! but it isn't at all implausible that lead was one of the largest factors. Jizz Festival posted:That sounds like a really dumb article. Thank you for saving me the time I would've wasted reading it. it's very good Jazerus fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Sep 19, 2017 |
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Sep 19, 2017 23:51
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Jizz Festival posted:That sounds like a really dumb article. Thank you for saving me the time I would've wasted reading it. Is there a Big Lead because you're trying pretty hard to defend it.
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Sep 19, 2017 23:58
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Taerkar posted:Is there a Big Lead because you're trying pretty hard to defend it. Lol I'm anti-lead, but also extremely skeptical of these sorts of pop-science explanations for social phenomena that liberals love.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:01
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Taerkar posted:Is there a Big Lead because you're trying pretty hard to defend it. You are loving missing the entire point.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:02
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Is it airplanes that are currently the largest emitters of lead nowadays, to the point where living close to an airport shows noticeably higher levels of lead in children's blood? I could be wrong but I find it hard to defend whomever doesn't want to try using unleaded avgas. Yeah I realize the certification is going to be a bitch and everyone will just say "lol airplanes are dangerous enough why mess with the FUEL" but let's at least start the conversation and shoot for
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Sep 20, 2017 00:04
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I mean it's sort of self-evident that lead isn't the only contributor to crime because despite dramatic de-leading efforts crime still exists. So simply pointing that out without actually addressing the huge drop in crime without a plausible alternate explanation is pretty dumb
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Sep 20, 2017 00:04
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e: Actually jet fuel may be complicated and not as easy to make less toxic, I am not an expert but unleaded airplane fuel where feasible seems like a good thing to encourage.
Asimov fucked around with this message at 00:21 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 00:05
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Jizz Festival posted:Lol I'm anti-lead, but also extremely skeptical of these sorts of pop-science explanations for social phenomena that liberals love. Lol indeed This isn't pop science, it's been in sociology textbooks for like decades now. But then I suppose only 'liberals' have any use for textbooks
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Sep 20, 2017 00:06
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Asimov posted:Is it airplanes that are currently the largest emitters of lead nowadays, to the point where living close to an airport shows noticeably higher levels of lead in children's blood? I could be wrong but I find it hard to defend whomever doesn't want to try using unleaded avgas. Yeah I realize the certification is going to be a bitch and everyone will just say "lol airplanes are dangerous enough why mess with the FUEL" but lets at least start the conversation and shoot for Probably them and various mining operations. Lead shows up in various useful ores.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:06
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The Bloop posted:Lol indeed The banning of leaded gasoline being the major cause of the drop in crime in the 90s is in sociology textbooks?
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Sep 20, 2017 00:09
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The Bloop posted:Lol indeed Or statistical analysis beyond OLS regression. IV regression analysis is for stupid libs The actual pop science explanation was the one proffered by the Freakonomics guy, that legal abortion contributed to the crime drop.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:10
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Mustached Demon posted:You are loving missing the entire point. Nope. A lot of his dismissive behavior is pretty indistinguishable from anti-intellectualism.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:43
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Shut up and read this article http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41327420 quote:Police in Colorado are looking for a mystery jogger - dubbed "the Mad Pooper" - who keeps defecating outside a family's home.
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Sep 20, 2017 00:58
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Where's Chuck Johnson?
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Sep 20, 2017 00:59
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Grapplejack posted:Shut up and read this article What a lovely human being
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Sep 20, 2017 01:10
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Taerkar posted:Nope. What is the use of intellectualism when checkmate libtard 
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Sep 20, 2017 01:11
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Dr. Oz is a massive fraud and rear end in a top hat, but this Fox and Friends segment was amazing. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...m=.99a17a35d58d quote:“Can I ask you one thing?” Oz said, suddenly talking very fast. “I talked about the opioid epidemic, but the real story is the hypocrisy around medical marijuana.”
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Sep 20, 2017 01:13
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TheKingofSprings posted:What a lovely human being Why that one house, is what I want to know. Is she some fecal joker, wanting to watch the world burn? Taerkar posted:Where's Chuck Johnson? Possibly Colorado Springs under an assumed identity.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:14
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Guys... just dont eat lead? Whats so hard about this
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Sep 20, 2017 01:16
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Calibanibal posted:Guys... just dont eat lead? Whats so hard about this Have you ever had a nice slice of lead? You can't just give it up cold turkey.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:19
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Calibanibal posted:Guys... just dont eat lead? Whats so hard about this this is america pal and if i want a one way ticket to flavor country then by god it's my right
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Sep 20, 2017 01:23
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Taerkar posted:Where's Chuck Johnson? Lots of places have floors.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:24
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Xae posted:What is the use of intellectualism when Hard to match the intellectualism of this Mother Jones article: quote:So this is the choice before us: We can either attack crime at its root by getting rid of the remaining lead in our environment, or we can continue our current policy of waiting 20 years and then locking up all the lead-poisoned kids who have turned into criminals. quote:A childlike understanding of the economy. More smart = better job = more money!
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Sep 20, 2017 01:26
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Calibanibal posted:Guys... just dont eat lead? Whats so hard about this every 10 minutes a child gets high af huffing lead fumes straight out the pipe smh
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Sep 20, 2017 01:27
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Herm why yes, the infographic doesn't contain all the citations of the scientific paper linked in the article:quote:Previous studies identified a curvilinear association between aggregated blood lead (BL) and soil lead (SL) data in New Orleans census tracts. In this study we investigate the relationships between SL (mg/kg), age of child, and BL (μg/dL) of 55,551 children in 280 census tracts in metropolitan New Orleans, 2000 to 2005. Analyses include random effects regression models predicting BL levels of children (μg/dL) and random effects logistic regression models predicting the odds of BL in children exceeding 15, 10, 7, 5, and 3 μg/dL as a function of age and SL exposure. Economic benefits of SL reduction scenarios are estimated. A unit raise in median SL0.5 significantly increases the BL level in children (b = 0.214 p = < 0.01), and a unit change in Age0.5 significantly increases child BL (b = 0.401, p = < 0.01). A unit change in Age0.5 increases the odds of a child BL exceeding 10 μg/dL by a multiplicative factor of 1.23 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.25), and a unit (mg/kg) addition of SL increases the odds of child BL > 10 μg/dL by a factor of 1.13 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.14). Extrapolating from regression results, we find that a shift in SL regulatory standard from 400 to 100 mg/kg provides each child with an economic benefit ranging from $4710 to $12,624 ($US 2000). Children's BL is a curvilinear function of both age and level of exposure to neighborhood SL. Therefore, a change in SL regulatory standard from 400 to 100 mg/kg provides children with substantial economic benefit. Hurr durr stupid scientists with their childlike understanding of the economy.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:39
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https://twitter.com/kailanikm/status/910301748669112321 A democrat in a blue state. Pathetic.
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Sep 20, 2017 01:39
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Jizz Festival posted:Hard to match the intellectualism of this Mother Jones article: How much lead paint did you eat as a child? Why are you so defensive about your decision to eat lead paint?
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Sep 20, 2017 01:43
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