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ZiegeDame posted:I think there's a slight misconception here I ought to correct: If Yasu had decided in 1983 to throw Shannon away and live as Kanon full-time, they would have been a trans man. Yasu is AFAB. They were literally assigned by Genji/Nanjo the gender female at a point close enough to birth that all their memories and social interactions were influence by that assignment. EDIT: I was about to ask how bad Yasu's sex education was for them to not realize their genitalia was off, if cosmetic surgery was kept to a minimum, but it's not uncommon for female-bodied people to have no idea what their own genitalia looks like without a mirror, due to the angles involves. If Yasu never had to change in a communal room like a school lockerroom, they'd have no reason to suspect there was anything wrong down there. PetraCore fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Sep 30, 2017 |
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Sep 30, 2017 20:47
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Tired Moritz posted:I don't know anything about gender and I fear that thinking about it might lead to a rabbithole but I can say that we can all agree that Sayo has terrible taste in men. Battler is a good boy. 
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Sep 30, 2017 21:25
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But incompetent.
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Sep 30, 2017 22:01
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POOL IS CLOSED posted:But incompetent. No one is perfect
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Sep 30, 2017 22:07
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havenwaters posted:No one is perfect Counterpoints: Ronove, Gohda
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Sep 30, 2017 22:36
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ZiegeDame posted:Counterpoints: Ronove, Gohda  edit: ZiegeDame posted:Gohda
EagerSleeper fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Sep 30, 2017 |
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Sep 30, 2017 22:59
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ZiegeDame posted:Counterpoints: Ronove, Gohda I stand corrected.
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Oct 1, 2017 03:39
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I would like to make more of an effortpost about this later, as Yasu identity discussion (especially in relation to Kanon, who is incredibly important) is very Relevant To My Interests, but for now: Speaking for myself, even though I would probably say that if Yasu has an inherent gender identity beyond any outside influences, it leans male - I tend to use "she." Largely because there is a choice we see her making in the EP6 love duel, to align herself with her female identity. In many ways you can point out that it's a heavily incomplete or flawed choice because it's one she made largely based on the wants and needs of her romances, rather than her personal identity, it was still the one she made. In EP7, when Will is touching on the gender issue, he remarks that in every episode except EP5, an aberration, the character is regarded in the narrative as female. The author, Ryukishi, has referred to the character as "a girl" in interviews and such. I mean, there are plenty of flaws you can bring up with those points of reasoning as well, not the least being that we have no idea how informed Ryukishi is on the complexity of gender issues - so if that's not enough of a justification for anyone, I completely understand. Honestly, "they" is probably the most correct term, authorial intention aside, but those are the reference points I use, anyway. Edit: quote:EDIT: I was about to ask how bad Yasu's sex education was for them to not realize their genitalia was off, if cosmetic surgery was kept to a minimum, but it's not uncommon for female-bodied people to have no idea what their own genitalia looks like without a mirror, due to the angles involves. If Yasu never had to change in a communal room like a school lockerroom, they'd have no reason to suspect there was anything wrong down there. One of the more cynical reasons you can assign to Genji giving Yasu her own room as a servant, for sure. Raelle fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Oct 1, 2017 |
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Oct 1, 2017 04:22
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idk about you at I didn't even know there was a difference between boys and girls till I was like 10 years old. kids are dumb.
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Oct 1, 2017 04:57
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I was always told to be more and more [x] when I was growing up, and tried to listen until I gave up and realized gender roles are kinda bullshit. I'm hoping that around the time bomb was set to go off, Yasu understood that too. Let's Play Umineko Chiru: Gender roles are kinda bullshit (ahahaha)
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Oct 1, 2017 05:51
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 BGM: Far Everyone gathered together, wondering what was going on. On the serving cart in front of him was a large, sliced, chocolate cake.  "As the highlight of tonight's Halloween party, I have prepared this Sachertorte for you all. As you can see, this was made specially for the Ushiromiya family, and bears the crest of the One-Winged Eagle in chocolate!"The stupendous cake drew a gasp of admiration from all present.  "What a splendid cake...! A perfect highlight for the party." "Oh, no. It's not just the cake. Tonight's cake has a little secret. Master, I ask that you explain that secret to everyone!" "Very well. This is a bit of a game. There's one, tiny thing in this cake that will make you a winner." "It's an almond...!"Ange shouted happily. Kinzo looked at her fondly and nodded.   "Whoo! It's been a long time since I played the king game...!" "I'm guessing the subject matter was a bit different when you played it..." "Hahhahahahahahaha. So, what happens to the person who becomes the king?" "The king gets to name one wish. Then, we shall all try to grant it together." "Oooh! Sounds interesting...!" "Uu-. Kings are boys. Girls can't be kings." "If a girl wins, they get to become the princess." "The almond! The one with the almond wins! Right? Right?!" "Ahahahaha, that's right. You're incredible, Ange." "In times like this, luck can tell you something about a man. Can't let myself lose now!" "Hold up there. Let's let the smallest kids choose first." "Good idea. Ange-chan, you can go first." "Hey, you're the big cousin now, Maria! Let Ange-chan go first." "Uu-uu-uu-! But what if Ange wins, uu-!" "I am gonna win! The almond wins, the almond wins!" "It seems we old fogies must hope that leftovers are lucky today." "If we're going by age, I guess that means Kinzo's last." "Wahhahahahaha, but weren't you a thousand years old?" "N, nooooooooo!!"Everyone burst out laughing. Her real age was unknown, but she claimed to be 19 years old. In front of Ange lay a large cake, split into several pieces. Just one of those pieces was the winner.   "No way. I only want the winning one." "Well then, you'll have to try and guess right on the first shot. Go ahead, pick one."Battler pushed Ange's small back towards the table with the cake.  "...Which one... should I take...?"The chocolate cake was cut into 15 pieces. I wanna pick the one with almonds and become the princess! One of them has an almond. Which could it be...? I get to choose first, but it sort of feels unfair. I mean, it is, isn't it? My chances of getting the right one are one in 15. There's no way I'll get it. And then, when Maria onee-chan goes after me, she has a one in 14 chance of picking the winner. The next person has a one in 13 chance, then a one in 12 chance, and the last person... will win for sure??  "Onii-chan, this isn't fair...! The person who goes first has a disadvantage...!"Everyone laughed. Apparently, there was something wrong with my calculations, but I still didn't like it. "Then let us start this contest of luck with Ange-sama. Please, feel free to make your selection...!" "...Okay! Okay...!!"If I have to pick one out of so many, there's no way I'll win. But for some reason, tonight, it feels like I might actually win after all. I have no reason for feeling this way, but when I'm in a good mood, lady luck always brings me fortune. "Have you decided yet?" "Yeah. I've decided. This one's... the winner."I concentrated on my fingertip... and pointed at one of the 15 slices. The slice I chose was...  Hey, look! Actual interactivity, here in the final episode! I'd leave this open for a thread vote, but, spoilers - the rest of the scene plays out identically regardless of choice.   "This one? Are you sure?" "I've made up my mind. I want this one...!"When he asked me whether I was sure, I felt a little uneasy. Still, at times like this, it's better to stick with your instincts. It was one of the few bits of philosophy that the young girl had learned from her few life experiences. Gohda took the chosen slice, put it on a plate with a fork, and handed it to Ange.  "I go next!! Uu-uu-, which should I take!"It was Maria's turn next. She was excited, determined to be the winner. I walked away from that group, all by myself. I was struck by a temptation to quickly cut the cake open and check for an almond inside. However, I stopped myself. If I check my piece first, my chance of winning is one in 15. However, if I wait for some other people to check their slices, then when I see that they've lost, my chances will go up, if only slightly. In other words, instead of searching for the almond right away, my chances will go up if I wait for some other people to lose. But if someone picks a winner while I'm sitting around here, the chances of my slice being a winner will go to zero. It'll be tough to calculate the right moment. I need to wait just long enough for as many losers to show up as possible. My chances of winning are highest if I can check my piece immediately before someone else wins. Yeah, that's the trick to winning this game!  BGM: Reflection Call Even though no one else can touch the cake that's sitting in front of me... The almond inside it will appear or disappear depending on whether or not the other people win or lose. ...?? I was in such a good mood that I felt dizzy, and I couldn't figure out what was wrong with my theory. But I did realize that something was strange. There is always just one truth inside a cat box. No matter what happens outside the box, it shouldn't be able to shake the truth inside. And yet, I'm being shaken about by events outside the cat box, trying to use those to change the way I observe the box's contents. ...I don't even know what I'm saying. Another me inside me is trying to say that, but it's too hard for me to understand. I feel like I'm drifting... I got so cheery and excited that, even though I'm not sleepy, my mind feels hazy. Maybe it's 'cause I drank Dad's adult drink...  BGM: Novelette After I've seen that everyone else has lost, my chances of winning will be 100%. I tried to find the contradiction in my thinking, but I didn't really get it, so I stopped. It's much better to have a 100% chance than a one in 15 one, so I decided to bet on that. I couldn't wait to open this precious treasure chest, but I waited for everyone else to choose their pieces and check them. "How is it going? Has anyone found a winner?" "Uu-! Mine didn't have one." "I lost too. And I wanted to be the princess...!" "Even if you lose, this Sachertorte really is beautiful and delicious. It's such a good decoration, it's almost a shame to eat it." "How about you? Find any almond?" "No, not me either. What about you, Hideyoshi nii-san?" "Mine's a loser too. Looks like I've used up all my luck with my company and my wife." "What exactly do you mean by that?" "What about you, Doctor Nanjo?" "I'm checking it now. Games like this can truly can be fun, every now and then." "Yes. Sometimes, a simple test of luck, without any strategy or tactics, can be quite entertaining. What about you, Beato?" "Where's the liar that said leftovers would be lucky?! Grrrrrrrr...!" "What about you, Ange? Was there an almond in yours?" "I'm checking now..." "Oh, you still haven't touched yours?"I was following my own personal probability theory, but I didn't think I could explain it well to Onii-chan, so I didn't mention it to him. I wonder if there's an almond in there. If I win, I'll be tonight's princess. I'll be happy if I win, but even if I don't, it'll still be a really fun night, so that's okay. It stopped when this cake game started, but before then, everyone was having a lot of fun trading tricks, quizzes, and riddles. This game is fun too, but I want to play like that again soon. ...Huh? "What's up, Ange? Oh?" "Wh, whoa!! Ange got it! That's awesome...!"At the same time, a stir rose up in the other corner of the room.  "I got one, I won...!" "Hoh! So Eva won...!" "My, my! Congratulations, Eva-sama...!!" "That's wrong!! I won! Mine has the almond!!"I held the almond high and shouted across the room. The crowd around Eva split, and everyone started at me, surprised. I was surprised too. The thing in her hand was, without a doubt, an almond...  "Gohda. There seem to be two almonds, so are they both winners?" "But, that shouldn't have..." "Does this mean that one of the two made a mistake...?" "Ange-sama's is clearly an almond. How about your end, Kanon-kun?" "Eva-sama's is clearly an almond." "Hohhohohohohoho. Then it seems that they both win." "...Master." "Heheheheheheh...! What an odd occurrence. What's all this, Gohda?" "Ah, umm, well, it seems we've had a little mistake... Uh, perhaps they should do rock, paper..." "Come now, don't be stingy. It just means that two almonds have appeared to signify the queen and the princess." "Precisely. Let's have them both be winners." "Ah, well, but..."Gohda was hesitant. Actually, he had prepared a single special dessert for the king. It had been decorated in a way that made it hard to split for two people. So, it wasn't convenient for there to be two kings. When Eva heard Gohda mumbling something to this effect, she shrugged and laughed.  "The princess. I'm the princess...?!" "I'll be your attendant. That works, right?"Of course it worked. Ange had been worried that Eva would be declared the winner, since she had spoken up first. So, she hadn't even dreamed that Eva would give it up to her. "But, are you sure...? You won too." "It's okay. I get to be your attendant. Come, princess. What wish do you want granted...? Let's hear it." "I've... already chosen my wish..." "Oh. And what is it? Won't you tell your aunt?"I want this fun time to keep on going. Forever. The young me spoke for the desire in my heart. "Wh, what we were doing before this was fun, so I'd like to keep doing it!"I get the feeling that the nuance has changed. Still, that was unmistakably my wish.  "What we were doing before this? Oh, you mean those tricks and quizzes?" "Yeah!" BGM: Stuffed Toy "Hold up there. I already used up all my material for tricks." "Then let's do quizzes and riddles." "So, we all just have to entertain Ange-chan with quizzes?" "We can all present quizzes to our princess to entertain her." "I see. Understood." "Wahahaha! Yes, how intriguing. Then, Ange, let us do it this way. Everyone will give you a quiz or a riddle, and you can try to solve them. Each time you succeed, I will give you a medal." "A medal?" "He probably means commemorative medals. If you get a lot of puzzles right, you'll get a lot of medals." "Hohohohohoho. Just gathering medals is a tad boring, don't you think?" "Yes. Depending on the number of medals you collect, I shall give you a fantastic present...! Well, do you suddenly feel fired up?!" "It sounds amazing. So, there's even a prize...!" "*giggle*. Isn't that great, Ange?" "Y, yeah...!"Everyone gathered around me, smiling, as they thought about what sort of puzzle they'd give. They're all thinking about me, so that they can play with me. Just the feel of having that all to myself almost made me explode with joy at becoming the princess. 
Quinn2win fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Oct 2, 2017 |
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Oct 2, 2017 13:27
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Ange, that's not how probability works. That way of thinking is also how you ended up in your current predicament. Which is probably shot in the face.
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Oct 2, 2017 14:26
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Would love a slice of that cake, it looks delicious. So far this one of the cheeriest openings we've seen for an episode. Appropriate for the final one. Of course I'm sure that the inevitable deaths will occur, but for now this is a celebration of everything we've been through and everyone we've come to know. It's quite sweet. 
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Oct 2, 2017 14:37
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bman in 2288 posted:Ange, that's not how probability works. That way of thinking is also how you ended up in your current predicament. Which is probably shot in the face. Or a smear on the street from jumping off a building, don't forget that. But let's not think of such vulgar stories now, when what's going on is so innocent and sweet. It's a beautiful idea to put Eva and Ange together... yeah, I think I see what you're doing, Battler, and it's OK. I just wonder if it will be enough, that's all.
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Oct 2, 2017 14:55
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resurgam40 posted:I just wonder if it will be enough, that's all. Has it ever?
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Oct 2, 2017 15:11
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Hi I'm bad at maths, please explain
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Oct 2, 2017 15:31
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OK, I think I get where they're going with that six year old doesn't understand math/probability thing, but if you're not allowed to search your own cake then waiting for outside events to occur does increase the certainty with which you can know what's inside your cake. Unless of course the initial premise of exactly one almond turns out to be wrong. [Ange]Or maybe Eva snuck an outside almond into her slice because she's a heartless, selfish old witch.[/Ange]
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Oct 2, 2017 16:00
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ZiegeDame posted:[Ange]Or maybe Eva snuck an outside almond into her slice because she's a heartless, selfish old witch.[/Ange] Please no allusions to the b-word.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:07
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I mean, she is at least correct that it's not actually advantageous to pick first... it just isn't disadvantageous, either.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:10
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Tired Moritz posted:Hi I'm bad at maths, please explain Ange is touching on the Monty Hall problem. It doesn't apply as written to the cake setup, but I assume Battler/Ryukishi is trying to say something with the reference, and her odd metafictive situation might change things in a way I don't clearly understand. The name comes from an old game show which was hosted by Mr. Hall (who, by the way, died three days ago  ). In the show there were three doors, behind one of which was the prize, like a new car. Behind other doors were goats, signifying no prize.Contestants would pick one door, and then the host would open one of the two unpicked doors to reveal a goat, then ask the contestant if they wanted to switch their choice to the other unopened door. Years after the fact, a puzzle columnist got a reader question about whether someone should switch in that situation, and she wrote that you always should switch: the chance of guessing the right door at first is one in three, so there's a two in three chance one of the door you didn't initially choose is the correct one. This is surprisingly difficult to understand. I know I struggled with it for a while. The magazine that ran the column got thousands of angry letters, many from mathematicians.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:12
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Doc Hawkins posted:Ange is touching on the Monty Hall problem. It doesn't apply as written to the cake setup, but I assume Battler/Ryukishi is trying to say something with the reference, and her odd metafictive situation might change things in a way I don't clearly understand. ...is the puzzle columnist right or wrong
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Oct 2, 2017 16:17
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The columnist is correct. The key is that the Monty Hall problem works the way it does because Monty opens one of the other doors after you've made your first choice. There are two possibilities: either you get it right on your first pick or you don't. You have a 1/3 chance of getting it right on your first pick and a 2/3 chance of getting it wrong on your first pick. If you get it right on your first pick, then Monty can open either of the other doors, because they're both wrong. If you get it wrong on your first pick, though, then Monty can ONLY open the door that you didn't pick that was also wrong, so if you THEN switch your pick, you are guaranteed to be switching to the correct door. What this means is that if you always switch, your probabilities of getting it right and wrong are exactly swapped, because if you pick the correct door first (1/3 chance) you are then guaranteed to switch to the wrong one, and if you pick an incorrect door first (2/3 chance) you are then guaranteed to switch to the correct one.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:27
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EagerSleeper posted:Please no allusions to the b-word. I mean Eva did spend most of one episode as an actual witch in the narrative. 'Witch' is a word that comes up a lot in Umineko, it's not always a clever disguise for a swear word.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:35
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The puzzle columnist in question was notably Marilyn vos Savant, known for having one of the highest recorded IQ scores. Even so, her Monty Hall column was hotly contested.
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Oct 2, 2017 16:39
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Another way to understand the Monty Hall problem is picture that after Ange chose her slice, Gohda went around and removed each remaining slice of cake in order, skipping over just one, then asked if she'd like to trade her slice for the remaining. It would then be pretty suspicious that of the 14 options, that specific slice is the one Gohda left behind.
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Oct 2, 2017 17:05
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Confused Llama posted:The key is that the Monty Hall problem works the way it does because Monty opens one of the other doors after you've made your first choice. That, and that he will never open the door with the prize. An important thing to state outright if someone isn't familiar with the show. That means that picking the closed door is equivalent to picking both of the doors you didn't pick. (If he chose his door randomly of the ones not picked, and had a chance of opening the door with the prize, then swapping isn't any better than staying.)
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Oct 2, 2017 17:17
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Idran posted:That, and that he will never open the door with the prize. An important thing to state outright if someone isn't familiar with the show. That means that picking the closed door is equivalent to picking both of the doors you didn't pick. (If he chose his door randomly of the ones not picked, and had a chance of opening the door with the prize, then swapping isn't any better than staying.) You apparently didn't bother to read the rest of the post that you quoted, in which I said exactly that, so that's cool. For more fun with numbers, let's suppose that there are four doors, you pick one, and then Monty opens one of the remaining doors that doesn't have the prize. In this case, it's still better to switch, although the difference is smaller: If you stick with your first choice, you have a 1/4 = 2/8 chance of being right. If you switch, you have a 1/4 * 0/2 + 3/4 * 1/2 = 3/8 chance of being right. Now let's consider why Ange is incorrect that she has a better chance of getting the almond if she doesn't choose first: If you are the first to pick a slice of cake, you have a 1/15 chance of getting the almond. If you are the second to pick, you have a 14/15 (the probability that the first person didn't get it) * 1/14 (the probability that you will get it given that the first person didn't get it) = 1/15 chance of getting the almond. If you are the third to pick, you still have a (14/15 * 13/14) (the probability that the first person didn't get it and then the second person didn't get it either) * 1/13 (the probability that you will get it given that neither of the first two people got it) = 1/15 chance of getting the almond. And so on...
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Oct 2, 2017 17:51
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Amidiri posted:I mean Eva did spend most of one episode as an actual witch in the narrative. 'Witch' is a word that comes up a lot in Umineko, it's not always a clever disguise for a swear word. In the context it was used it was both.
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Oct 2, 2017 18:07
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Confused Llama posted:You apparently didn't bother to read the rest of the post that you quoted, in which I said exactly that, so that's cool. Gah, sorry, I did but I missed that.
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Oct 2, 2017 18:29
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EagerSleeper posted:In the context it was used it was both. Well, I'm glad to have you tell me what I meant. Feels good, other people telling you what you think.
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Oct 2, 2017 18:56
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ZiegeDame posted:Well, I'm glad to have you tell me what I meant. Feels good, other people telling you what you think. Usually "a heartless, selfish old witch" is in the vein of a friendlier, euphemistic way of saying the ol' gendered insult in a PG, plausible-deniability sort of way that gets seen in TV, books, comics, and real life. While I don't agree with it, I understand the coding behind it, and that it gets used that way by even the most well-meaning of people (e.g. my mother included). I assumed that you were trying to do a play on words on both the euphemistic definition and the literal definition, though which the euphemistic connotation I'm not a fan of, it was understandable. I assumed it was in that context since Ange would have had no kind feelings for the person who tormented and abused her terribly. Combine that too with how mundane/non-supernatural abuse is in my opinion to the point where I would be more confused with calling someone after a lovable, magic-using, fairy tale recluse instead of an rear end in a top hat. I haven't thought of Eva as a witch for a very long time (however long ago was episode 3), so I assumed the euphemistic definition. tl;dr: which witch is question edit: and 'by understand it,' I mean understandable that someone would go for a wordplay over all. EagerSleeper fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Oct 3, 2017 |
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Oct 2, 2017 19:46
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Confused Llama posted:The columnist is correct. The easiest way to understand it is if you increase the number of doors to an arbitrarily large number, while keeping the base idea the same. Let's say we increase it to 1000 doors. You pick a door, and then all of the other doors but one are opened to show they're duds. You're then offered the chance to switch between the door you chose, and this other door. The chances of you picking the correct door out of 1000 on the first attempt are so incredibly slim that in this situation, always switching would make sense. --- My initial thought upon seeing that Eva and Ange had both won was that at some point they were going to be isolated, and explosion times happen. So far that prediction appears to be wrong. Also last update really shows what could have happened with Eva had Ange not listened to the bad witch. Ange could totally be correct with her logic in the catbox world.
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Oct 2, 2017 20:14
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Cyouni posted:Ange could totally be correct with her logic in the catbox world. This is also true, at least under the assumption that the almond is not capable of observing itself.
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Oct 2, 2017 20:45
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EagerSleeper posted:I haven't thought of Eva as a witch for a very long time (however long ago was episode 3) Never forget that EP 3 is Ange's head-canon. It's looking very important to the current episode.
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Oct 2, 2017 21:09
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The Monty Hall problem continues to cause debates and discourse to this day, even after the namesake has passed on. What is really going on gets into deterministic vs fatalistic probability - "If I learn the negative status of a choice I passed on, does it lower the amount of possible outcomes, or not?", essentially. If you pick choice A over choices B and C, and then learn that Choice C is wrong, does that mean the probability of Choice A being correct is 1/3 or 1/2? For that matter, what is the probability of Choice B being correct in that scenario? Nobody can agree on the answer, and quite often mathematicians that think one way see the people who think the other way as complete imbeciles.
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Oct 2, 2017 21:46
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KataraniSword posted:The Monty Hall problem continues to cause debates and discourse to this day, even after the namesake has passed on. What is really going on gets into deterministic vs fatalistic probability - "If I learn the negative status of a choice I passed on, does it lower the amount of possible outcomes, or not?", essentially. If you pick choice A over choices B and C, and then learn that Choice C is wrong, does that mean the probability of Choice A being correct is 1/3 or 1/2? For that matter, what is the probability of Choice B being correct in that scenario? I studied math, and I honestly don't know what you're referring to here. I've never heard of any sort of ongoing debate in mathematics over the true answer. Especially since you can literally code up a simulator in like ten minutes to repeat the scenario hundreds of thousands of times and see what happens in practice, and see that invariably in about 2/3 of the scenarios you simulate the right choice is to switch and in 1/3 of the scenarios the right choice is to stay. Like, there's plenty of philosophy of math stuff over the nature of probability, but this particular problem really doesn't express it. It's just got a counterintuitive answer. Maybe if the problem is poorly posed it would cause some argument, but I've never heard of it happening when properly posed. Can you cite some mathematicians that say the answer is 1/2 even after being presented the opposing side? I don't mean as a callout or anything, I just have honestly never heard of this being a thing in the professional community. Idran fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Oct 2, 2017 |
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Oct 2, 2017 22:20
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Yeah, the frequentist vs. Bayesian slapfights really only apply to cases in which you're trying to quantify your confidence in an uncertain measurement of a phenomenon that should only have one true answer, not really to a case in which you're trying to characterize a situation that you can feasibly replicate many times. I suppose if you're talking about one specific instance of the Monty Hall problem where you can somehow open one non-chosen incorrect door but you can't open the other two doors at the end to check your answer, you can get into an argument about how exactly you quantify your confidence that the prize is behind the door you switched to?
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Oct 2, 2017 22:40
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I take the debate around the Monty Hall problem to be proof that conditional probability is hard for many people. I don't blame them either. The definition for conditional probability is the only definition that involves dividing probabilities, which is rather counterintuitive.
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Oct 2, 2017 23:52
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Idran posted:I studied math, and I honestly don't know what you're referring to here. I've never heard of any sort of ongoing debate in mathematics over the true answer. Maybe I've just spent too long on the internet and not long enough in places with actual face to face discussion, then. 
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Oct 3, 2017 00:43
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The debate isn't about the Monty Hall problem per se. As presented it has one valid answer that's already been explained above. Rather, the debate is about how tweaking various parameters should change things if at all, such as whether the host deliberately opens an unchosen door with a goat (which implies foreknowledge on their part) or instead accidentally trips and opens such a door (which does not necessarily imply foreknowledge).
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Oct 3, 2017 02:10
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