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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Will someone match up the timing of those tweets with this mornings Fox And Friends? Here's hoping the next Reality TV is at least competent enough to get daily presidential briefings. Would be more amusing/terrifying to get those live tweeted.
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Oct 11, 2017 13:56
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this tweet is loving incredible.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:13
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5.2 trillion? what? is this not utter, complete bullshit in every possible way, like just a number he made up on the spot to sound big and impressive?
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Oct 11, 2017 14:16
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empty whippet box posted:5.2 trillion? what? is this not utter, complete bullshit in every possible way, like just a number he made up on the spot to sound big and impressive? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxVivkXUfdU
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Oct 11, 2017 14:19
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Stereotype posted:Conservatives fundamentally do not understand macroeconomics. They took Econ 101, which is explicitly only microEcon, then decided they knew everything and tried to run the country. Election cycles don't run on the macro level.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:20
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Stereotype posted:It's actually sort of related, but in that they both rose for the same reason, bitcoin didn't make the US economy grow. To add to this: anyone who's financially savvy 100% understands that the market is way overvalued right now. It's just that as said above- the money doesn't have anywhere else to go. I'll actually argue that this is BECAUSE taxes are too low. Right now it's very easy for people or companies to just grab any extra profit and pocket it because it's very easy to justify. Raise taxes and it becomes more expensive to pocket profits while making it more attractive to maybe raise employees wages or invest in better facilities etc.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:25
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empty whippet box posted:5.2 trillion? what? is this not utter, complete bullshit in every possible way, like just a number he made up on the spot to sound big and impressive? It would mean an increase of something like $17,000 per capita so yes it's bullshit
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Oct 11, 2017 14:25
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Nail Rat posted:It would mean an increase of something like $17,000 per capita so yes it's bullshit Total market capitalization on the NYSE as of June 2017 was about $21T, so $5.2T isn't bullshit at all. The problem is it's all on paper. The stocks would have to be sold to get the money out. ETA: It was about $20T in January, though, so unless the total cap has shot up in the last couple months the increase is closer to $1-2T than $5T, though. Deteriorata fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Oct 11, 2017 |
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Oct 11, 2017 14:33
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Deteriorata posted:Total market capitalization on the NYSE as of June 2017 was about $21T, so $5.2T isn't bullshit at all. The problem is it's all on paper. The stocks would have to be sold to get the money out. Oh poo poo yeah, all we need to do is sell it all and we'll all be rich!
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Oct 11, 2017 14:34
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It seems like people need to relearn what speculative bubbles are again which means it's probably about time for the stock market to crash. The problem with the modern stock market is it's really the only option for long-term retirement savings, so just throw your money on that pile.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:37
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OhFunny posted:
Stock market includes international assets and valuation of assets that are not producing GDP (like trucks, machinery, and other items), my dude.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:37
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OhFunny posted:
that is not surprising, that the value of all us companies (which is the value of all their capital and their future expected returns discounted to the present day) exceeds the gross domestic product. now, details might make that more surprising, but in a vacuum it's not. you're comparing a valuation that takes multiple years of profit-generating to a one-year figure. now, obviously you then start saying "but the stock market is about profits, gdp is about total production" and start getting really into the weeds and maybe you find something interesting, but the headline conclusion you're asking people to draw isn't interesting or correct. also, obviously, US companies earn money outside the US, and some foreign companies are listed on the US markets. GDP also isn't the amount of money that exists in the US economy
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Oct 11, 2017 14:38
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evilweasel posted:that is not surprising, that the value of all us companies (which is the value of all their capital and their future expected returns discounted to the present day) exceeds the gross domestic product. now, details might make that more surprising, but in a vacuum it's not. you're comparing a valuation that takes multiple years of profit-generating to a one-year figure. now, obviously you then start saying "but the stock market is about profits, gdp is about total production" and start getting really into the weeds and maybe you find something interesting, but the headline conclusion you're asking people to draw isn't interesting or correct. also, obviously, US companies earn money outside the US, and some foreign companies are listed on the US markets. Also the government spending is included in the GDP, which is not necessarily included in the stock market valuation or included in a very roundabout way.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:41
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[quote="“Nocturtle”" post="“477270884”"] It seems like people need to relearn what speculative bubbles are again which means it’s probably about time for the stock market to crash. The problem with the modern stock market is it’s really the only option for long-term retirement savings, so just throw your money on that pile. [/quote] You could argue there are two bubbles right now- student debt and tech. That does not make for a good combination. Apparently the big financial firms are also doing the same crap with student debt that they did with mortgages, but it's different because the Feds are underwriting that debt. So in theory the crash might not be as bad as the housing crisis. In theory.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:43
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Nocturtle posted:It seems like people need to relearn what speculative bubbles are again which means it's probably about time for the stock market to crash. The problem with the modern stock market is it's really the only option for long-term retirement savings, so just throw your money on that pile. basically, it seems like everyone agrees the stock market is in a bubble right now, but it's also the only game in town: interest rates are so low that investing in bonds is basically worthless. so you have all this capital sloshing around and nowhere for it to go, so people are accepting smaller and smaller returns in the stock market (measured by P/E ratios) since the only other option is getting no real return at all. so even though everyone is like eeeeeeeeeeeh about investing in the stock market right now they don't really have any other choice so everyone's still doing it anyway. and all the international stock markets are similarly inflated because they, too, got crushed in the financial crisis and their interest rates are near zero. so, fun times all around.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:44
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Nail Rat posted:It would mean an increase of something like $17,000 per capita so yes it's bullshit It's not bullshit, it's just a valuation. Like others have said and explained, it's ephemeral but the conditions don't really exist right now to deflate it and the elected government has incentive not to deflate it. It's why the Fed raising interest rates, albeit slowly, and balancing the selling off of their assets should be seen as an attempt for normalization. Boon fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Oct 11, 2017 |
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Oct 11, 2017 14:45
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Politicizing asset value as wealth is risky because household wealth peaked in 2007. That joke doesn't even need a punchline. So it's great stocks have increased, but Trump doesn't seem to understand why. Part of it is we had a peaceful change of power. Trump's comments about not conceding the election created uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. Either candidate would have seen a post-election bump. The other part is an economy chugging along at a slight incline and the fervent hope of tax reform. Tax reform might be dead, so Trump shouldn't get too attached to all of that extra 5 trillion. Cue a new scandal where Trump calls us CEO's and investment fund managers asking for a cut of all this new money.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:48
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FlamingLiberal posted:You could argue there are two bubbles right now- student debt and tech. That does not make for a good combination. the basic thing that big financial firms did with mortgage debt - packaging it and securitizing it - is not, in itself, a stupid and bad thing. what was so bad about the financial crisis was that as part of that debt securitization the financial firms discovered that the ratings agencies were paint-chip-eating morons, and that they could transmute loans worth $100 into loans worth $120 by packaging and slicing them, and that part of that scam involved lovely loans specifically (it was not anywhere as profitable to do with just great loans) then that scam proved so profitable that once they ran out of mortgages they wanted to keep printing that free $20 so they started using synthetic mortgages basically built off of the people betting that the market would eventually crash, hugely multiplying the effects
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Oct 11, 2017 14:48
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QuoProQuid posted:NBC is reporting that Trump asked the Joint Chiefs to increase the nuclear arsenal tenfold and had to be told by Tillerson and others why he could not do that. This ornery demented dickhead is just itching to totally glass an entire country because big bombs give him an erection.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:51
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Nocturtle posted:It seems like people need to relearn what speculative bubbles are again which means it's probably about time for the stock market to crash. The problem with the modern stock market is it's really the only option for long-term retirement savings, so just throw your money on that pile. I'm not sure it is speculative. I don't think that people are assuming that things are going to dramatically increase in value and betting on it, as much as literally all of the current financial gains are going to some tiny fraction of people who have no possible way to spend it at all. They have no choice but to dump it into the stock market or housing market, nothing else has enough volume to hold it all. It's more like a hoarding bubble, which is sort of novel. It will be interesting to see what will pop it. Probably some super basic scarcity of some common tangible thing, or something equally stupid.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:52
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In the old days, a country would have giant piles of money tied up in vaults full of gold. People noticed that the counties with more gold did better, and tried to set up trade so that gold flowed in and goods flowed out. This was called mercantilism. Some years later, people realized that you didn't need gold anymore, you could have a giant vault full of people's faith in your economy. They also realized that gold is nice, but goods and services are nicer. So we got rid of the giant vaults of gold (sort of), and started opening up trade so that both countries would benefit. Money and goods started flowing across borders. This is called Globalism. Some countries started ending up with giant piles of other countries money, because they were selling more than they were buying. This looks like a good thing, but is actually a big problem. They don't want to just stick this money in a vault, because that would make it worth less over time. So they start sticking it in other places, like corporation stocks and buying ports. This is increasing the price of stocks, and freaking people out because Dubai is trying to buy the Baltimore. This will likely fall apart, collapse, and be replaced by a different system, but it's very hard to predict when, how, and what that will look like.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:52
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FlamingLiberal posted:You could argue there are two bubbles right now- student debt and tech. That does not make for a good combination. There's no widely accepted mantra throughout the entire industry that 'student loans will always go up uP UP!!' That can lead to the insane leveraging the housing crisis got into. Not saying it's not bad and won't be bad in the future- but 2008 really was a black swan event
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Oct 11, 2017 14:53
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by the way, nearly the entire "trump bump" is a bet by the stock market that trump will cut corporate taxes, which will go straight to profits, boosting the returns of every company and therefore making their stock (which is basically valued according to future profits) more valuable that's pretty much it, and that means what is likely to collapse that bubble is the failure of republican tax cuts
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Oct 11, 2017 14:54
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Tibalt posted:In the old days, a country would have giant piles of money tied up in vaults full of gold. People noticed that the counties with more gold did better, and tried to set up trade so that gold flowed in and goods flowed out. This was called mercantilism. Did you just post a Fwd: fwd or something? Also, any time I think of gold as a currency, I think of Diablo II and Stones of Jordan.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:55
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evilweasel posted:what was so bad about the financial crisis was that as part of that debt securitization the financial firms discovered that the ratings agencies were paint-chip-eating morons, and that they could transmute loans worth $100 into loans worth $120 by packaging and slicing them, and that part of that scam involved lovely loans specifically (it was not anywhere as profitable to do with just great loans) To be fair to the rating agencies here, they were not paint-chip-eating morons; they absolutely knew what they were doing. They knew the loans were poo poo and the securities they comprised would fail. But if they rated them accurately then no one would buy them (or at least all the institutional investors like pension funds, endowments, etc that only invest in AAA securities wouldn't and they were the big prize), then banks would stop making them and stop paying the agencies to rate them. So they rated them AAA anyway, deliberately choosing to swindle cities and states and universities and pensioners and widows because the demand for AAA securities was high and helping to sell them was profitable. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Oct 11, 2017 |
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Oct 11, 2017 14:56
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Krispy Wafer posted:Trump's comments about not conceding the election created uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. Also I can't loving believe that as a society we've all just conveniently forgotten about this. The guy straight up threatened civil war and most of his supporters were too loving dumb to realize it
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Oct 11, 2017 14:56
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Here is an econ primer for the people who don't understand macroeconomics and valuations (not a diss; most people don't) Stock Market - The stock market is the valuation of all publicly traded companies in a country/index. - When you buy a stock, you are buying part ownership of the company. - The value of a stock is determined by several things: 1) The current value of the company (this includes its ability to make money, its debt, and the value of all the assets it holds. Assets include things like IP rights, trucks, real estate, etc) 2) The potential future ability of the company to make money. If a company loses a massive contract to a competitor, then the actual amount of money the company has doesn't go down. But the value of the stock might go down because people will assume that losing this massive contract to a competitor will reduce the value of the company in the future. 3) The demand/availability of shares of a certain company. Some companies offer limited shares for sale. This makes the few shares more valuable and gives more voting rights to the individual shareholders. This is usually not an issue for huge companies. 4) The "income" generated by the stock. Being part owner means you are entitled to a certain amount of income from the business. "Income" from stock is dispersed in two ways: 1) "Value" stocks - This is where a company pays very little or no dividends, but the stock is priced low to encourage people to buy and hold it. The company has a lot of room for growth and holding will increase the value of the stock over time. 2) "Dividend" or "Income" stocks - Large companies (like Wal-Mart or GE) don't have much room to expand. They can grow maybe 2-3% per year. So, to encourage people to buy their stock, they pay people dividends just for owning the stock. This reduces the value of the stock, but provides income to holders. Holders can then reinvest the dividends in the company and compound gains. Example: I have 10 shares of Wal-Mart stock that are worth $100 each. Wal-Mart pays a dividend at the end of the year of $10 per share. I reinvest those dividends back into Wal-Mart or just take the $100 in cash. If I reinvest, then any gains are compounded. I now have 11 shares of Wal-Mart stock worth $100 each. If the value of Wal-Mart stock goes up by $10 next year, then I will have gained $110 that year instead of $100. Then repeat for each following year. Bitcoin/Any Speculative Commodity Investment - Bitcoin and any other speculative investment only has a value because people are willing to pay for it. A bitcoin itself has no actual value or function. - Buying bitcoin is basically a bet that Bitcoin will see wide-spread adoption in the future and therefore become more valuable. It is very similar to buying gold. Gold has some intrinsic uses, but the primary reason it is valuable is because of its ability to be exchanged. People buy gold when they want to have an item of value that can be exchanged, but they are too nervous to risk it in any specific country or company. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Oct 11, 2017 |
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Oct 11, 2017 14:56
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Trump is so Pro-Gay, he is dropping Administration support for the Stonewall Monument, in honor of the Stonewall Riots http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovemen...cation+Ceremony
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Oct 11, 2017 14:57
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FlamingLiberal posted:You could argue there are two bubbles right now- student debt and tech. That does not make for a good combination. Student debt is a manageable bubble. There are no rotting assets that need to be accounted for and me defaulting on my student loan doesn't make my neighbor's education worth less. Tech is a little trickier, but it's still not as bad as 2000. Uber is going to be spectacular fail though. It'll make WorldCom or Excite look like peanuts. No, I think healthcare is our next terrible bubble. It's an absolutely massive chunk of our GDP and isn't sustainable.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:57
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Rex-Goliath posted:There's no widely accepted mantra throughout the entire industry that 'student loans will always go up uP UP!!' That can lead to the insane leveraging the housing crisis got into. Not saying it's not bad and won't be bad in the future- but 2008 really was a black swan event Also, total mortgage debt is about 10x student loan debt, so even if the student loan market craters it won't have the same impact on the economy.
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Oct 11, 2017 14:58
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Krispy Wafer posted:No, I think healthcare is our next terrible bubble. It's an absolutely massive chunk of our GDP and isn't sustainable. It's hard to look at any one element of the healthcare economy and say "this is overheating". It's huge because care in the US is expensive and increasingly utilized and the US is generally on the forefront of R&D. Which industry specifically would you look at as a culprit in a bubble situation? It can be streamlined and a lot of cost savings can be realized, but I'm not sure that makes a bubble burst. Boon fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Oct 11, 2017 |
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Oct 11, 2017 15:02
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Boon posted:Did you just post a Fwd: fwd or something?
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Oct 11, 2017 15:05
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/918112884630093825
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Oct 11, 2017 15:07
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Populism is cool and good.
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Oct 11, 2017 15:09
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Why is Trump signing his tweets now?
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Oct 11, 2017 15:10
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This is a thing a dictator would say that even in half a year we have all learned to just laugh off as a senile old man saying nonsense.
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Oct 11, 2017 15:11
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comments on this poo poo-stains twitter are unreadable. The first 20 pages is bots and people getting trolled by bots. Pikavangelist posted:Why is Trump signing his tweets now? idk, but why has he not stopped tweeting in shorthand?
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Oct 11, 2017 15:11
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You ever feel like, culturally and intellectually, we were still adjusting to television and radio when the internet just came bulldozing through? I guess I'm just old, in the twilight years of my...early thirties. It feels like it's been longer than that.
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Oct 11, 2017 15:15
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Called it. Dejawesp posted:He's the president. Can't he just tell the FCC to stop the "fake news" he deems harmful? It was decades since it was established that the first amendment didn't apply to TV anyway.
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Oct 11, 2017 15:15
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Ice Phisherman posted:I have this feeling like he doesn't even know Eminem is a white rapper. He defaults to black people talk like this and black people love fried chicken. I wish someone would create an automated twitter account that replies to everything this piece of poo poo says with a query about tires or how long until his car is ready because he's been waiting here for over an hour now.
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Oct 11, 2017 15:22
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