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Maaaaaan, whomever it was that said Blade Runner 2049 is a good view of the future ecologically was on the fuckin' money. Highly suggest catching that before they pull it from theaters.
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Oct 23, 2017 03:43
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Telephones posted:Is there evidence to suggest that consumer electronics will, within the next few decades, become very scarce due to environmental abuse? There is a limited amount of the rare earth metals used to make them on the planet, and if even half of the world's population used them at the rate that North America does then we'd run out in a very short amount of time (less than 20 years i think but I can't remember the exact amount of time). Consumption of electronics will increase dramatically as the two most populated nations in the world become more developed, along with others. Eventually we'd have to excavate landfills in which deposits of metals are expected to be found, the extra work and land management involved, not to mention the costs of disassembly and reassembly, would likely increase the price and scarcity by a great deal. Also by "without computers" I would imagine a lot of people mean "without internet", which is a pretty obvious consequence of worldwide war and instability along with the collapse and descent into authoritarian fascism of most first world countries that most people accept as inevitable at this point. ChairMaster fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Oct 23, 2017 |
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Oct 23, 2017 04:22
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ChairMaster posted:There is a limited amount of the rare earth metals used to make them on the planet, and if even half of the world's population used them at the rate that North America does then we'd run out in a very short amount of time (less than 20 years i think but I can't remember the exact amount of time). Consumption of electronics will increase dramatically as the two most populated nations in the world become more developed, along with others. Eventually we'd have to excavate landfills in which deposits of metals are expected to be found, the extra work and land management involved, not to mention the costs of disassembly and reassembly, would likely increase the price and scarcity by a great deal. This does not mesh with my cyberpunk future expectations at all. Supposed to be computers and poo poo in everything with giant metallic complexes of glowing neon death and everyone is hooked up to the internet 2.0 by their latest cyber implants. 
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Oct 23, 2017 04:34
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ChairMaster posted:There is a limited amount of the rare earth metals used to make them on the planet, and if even half of the world's population used them at the rate that North America does then we'd run out in a very short amount of time (less than 20 years i think but I can't remember the exact amount of time). Consumption of electronics will increase dramatically as the two most populated nations in the world become more developed, along with others. Eventually we'd have to excavate landfills in which deposits of metals are expected to be found, the extra work and land management involved, not to mention the costs of disassembly and reassembly, would likely increase the price and scarcity by a great deal. You're making a common mistake about how resources are calculated. They're calculated at current prices as the price increases more resources become viable. We're not at risk of running out of rare earths in the next 20 years. Instead prices will rise.
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Oct 23, 2017 04:35
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It wont matter when were all slaving away in the unobtanium mines of northern Alberta.
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Oct 23, 2017 04:36
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I didn't mean that we were gonna run out in 20 years, that's a tangential half-remembered statistic about the idea of the rest of the world using electronics like North America does. And yes, of course prices would rise, and once something becomes expensive and rare enough it doesn't make much of a difference whether or not it's technically been depleted. It's not like we're firing them into space when we "consume" them, we're just making them more inaccessible and difficult to make into consumer electronics. ChairMaster fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Oct 23, 2017 |
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Oct 23, 2017 04:48
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ChairMaster posted:I didn't mean that we were gonna run out in 20 years, that's a tangential half-remembered statistic about the idea of the rest of the world using electronics like North America does. Right but that's the nature of resource cycles, increased prices means new ores come online, we increase the efficiency of the use of that resource, and it becomes worthwhile to develop new extraction or processing technologies. I don't think there's any strong evidence we're going to support the idea that we're going to stop being able to have computers and networked information.
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Oct 23, 2017 04:55
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ChairMaster posted:I didn't mean that we were gonna run out in 20 years, that's a tangential half-remembered statistic about the idea of the rest of the world using electronics like North America does. Actually we have done a terrible loving job of littering the orbit around our planet with old dead satellites so yeah, we have been firing it off into space. 
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Oct 23, 2017 04:58
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I certainly don't mean to imply that computers are going to disappear and stop being a thing humanity has access to, just that there's going to be a pretty big change from how it is now. I for one would be thrilled to live in a world where we lasted long enough to run out of non-landfill rare earth metals,
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Oct 23, 2017 05:24
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Telephones posted:Is there evidence to suggest that consumer electronics will, within the next few decades, become very scarce due to environmental abuse? The graph is a bit older but you may not get an electric car all for yourself.  Big version: https://i.imgur.com/bR4ZYCw.jpg
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Oct 23, 2017 08:50
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the sooner we all die, the better hth
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Oct 23, 2017 08:55
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Laserjet 4P posted:The graph is a bit older but you may not get an electric car all for yourself. This chart has the exact same problem I was discussing in the previous post. This chart uses reserve numbers which are inherently economically based. What that chart does is take the total amount economic to mine at this price and divide it annual consumption. There can be billions of tons of ore available but too expensive to mine at today's price that won't be accounted for in that chart because that's not how reserves work.
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Oct 23, 2017 09:00
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It also fails to take substitutions into effect which is what everyone keep tripping over with peak oil.
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Oct 23, 2017 09:09
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enraged_camel posted:the sooner we all die, the better Sorta makes getting all bent out of a shape because a sportsball player takes a knee during the national anthem seem pointless!
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Oct 23, 2017 14:33
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WaryWarren posted:sportsball Mom, I asked you; please stop posting here it's embarrassing for me.
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Oct 23, 2017 14:38
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Trabisnikof posted:This chart has the exact same problem I was discussing in the previous post. This chart uses reserve numbers which are inherently economically based. What that chart does is take the total amount economic to mine at this price and divide it annual consumption. There can be billions of tons of ore available but too expensive to mine at today's price that won't be accounted for in that chart because that's not how reserves work. To reinforce this point, the US Mountain Pass rare earths mine filed for bankruptcy last year, even though they still have estimated over 10 million tons of high quality ore left in the mine. They just can't compete with Chinese prices for mining. There are many other sources of rare earths minerals, but why should we bother when cheap  
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Oct 23, 2017 15:05
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Things "running out" and being prohibitively expensive are the same thing fyi
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Oct 23, 2017 15:30
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NewForumSoftware posted:Things "running out" and being prohibitively expensive are the same thing fyi Technological advances and the high elasticity of the valuation of human life in the third world makes that impossible to predict. Just because something is more expensive (or cheaper) today does not mean that it will be so tomorrow.
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Oct 23, 2017 15:39
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Laserjet 4P posted:The graph is a bit older but you may not get an electric car all for yourself. Do you realize how wasteful it is for everyone to have their own car, how much time each car spends idle? The sharing economy will ensure that many, many people will not have their own electric vehicle.
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Oct 23, 2017 15:43
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For all that we call it a sharing economy, getting people to actually share trips carpool style seems like a reasonably tough thing to coordinate but an important goal. Somewhere between Uber, car share, and public transit lies the perfect system.
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Oct 23, 2017 16:00
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Uber/Lyft style services will become much more common, especially when autonomous tech is widely deployed.
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Oct 23, 2017 16:40
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Rap Record Hoarder posted:And the United States isn't? More of a Plutocracy. Google "DuPont Heir Rapist" for a nice example.
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Oct 23, 2017 19:32
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...m=.59cc09198793quote:The study suggests a possible release of about 190 petagrams over the course of the century from the top meter of the Earth’s soil, which it calculates is “equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.” And Melillo said that the possibility of this occurring isn’t adequately taken into account in future climate change projections. Between this and ESAS permafrost degradation, I wonder when it'll hit the scientific mainstream that AGW merely kicked off a much, much larger feedback mechanism. 190PG of carbon is about 60% of what was required to hit the mass extinction tipping point that was brought up earlier in this thread.
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Oct 23, 2017 21:12
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gently caress yeah. it's happening. no need for the meteor strike, the yellowstone eruption, the alien invasion, the rapture. We did it all ourselves, we designed our destruction. And the best part is we get to see it all fall apart in real time: from our computers, our TVs, our cell phones. The atmosphere, the oceans, the fauna, the ice, the animals, our societies, our media, our politicians, our friends, our neighbors, ourselves. Everything will experience a transformation with a magnitude never before seen in the span of human civilization. Don't let yourself wallow in misery. Take solace in the fact that you got free tickets to one of the biggest events in the history of the universe. God bless!
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Oct 23, 2017 21:40
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Oh chin up, plant some trees and care for some bees Not gonna work but its more cheerful
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Oct 23, 2017 22:45
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it's not going to save the world but it can absolutely create refugia, or little oases for humans and animals alike to take shelter from the cataclysm and then spring forth to repopulate the earth in a thousand years or whenever
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Oct 23, 2017 22:52
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the old ceremony posted:it's not going to save the world but it can absolutely create refugia, or little oases for humans and animals alike to take shelter from the cataclysm and then spring forth to repopulate the earth in a thousand years or whenever Ecosystem collapse doesn't work like that sorry
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Oct 23, 2017 22:59
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Conspiratiorist posted:Ecosystem collapse doesn't work like that sorry it kinda does though
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Oct 24, 2017 00:37
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Minge Binge posted:Take solace in the fact that you got free tickets to one of the biggest events in the history of the universe. God bless! This was basically what was going through my head every time I looked at a GOES-16 loop of Irma and Maria. At least we will have some hella good satellites and media to document the collapse of human existence.
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Oct 24, 2017 00:38
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treerat posted:Do you realize how wasteful it is for everyone to have their own car, how much time each car spends idle? The sharing economy will ensure that many, many people will not have their own electric vehicle. Buy a self-driving EV car. Have it pay for you by sharing it to others. Use the battery to augment the utility during peak use. Get paid by the utility. etc. etc. Cars are sitting around 90% of the time anyway. And there's already an AirBnB like thing for cars. Turo.
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Oct 24, 2017 00:55
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:it kinda does though Do you think that when everything goes to poo poo people are just gonna sit around and starve rather than go to war with each other over resources? Climate change isn't a death sentence for certain parts of the world, but the fact that those parts of the world share a planet with billions of starving people with nowhere to live means that they're just as screwed as anyone else.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:03
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Yes. Unless these livable 'oases' you're creating are significantly geographically isolated, people are going to flock to and demolish them. It's why you want an ocean between yourself and the plebs, like the folks buying property in NZ are doing.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:08
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ChairMaster posted:Do you think that when everything goes to poo poo people are just gonna sit around and starve rather than go to war with each other over resources? Climate change isn't a death sentence for certain parts of the world, but the fact that those parts of the world share a planet with billions of starving people with nowhere to live means that they're just as screwed as anyone else. Most of humanity is geographically concentrated. A downtown city center? Sure it'll be a bloodbath. Iqaluit? Okay, yeah, whatever you say. Maybe if humans were a homogeneous mixture across the planet your argument would be absolute, but they aren't. We're also so reliant on infrastructure by and large that I think most people will shrivel up and die in place should their infrastructure collapse around them. I also think that societal collapse will be extremely nonlinear and abrupt; our system works up until it doesn't.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:09
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Conspiratiorist posted:It's why you want an ocean between yourself and the plebs, like the folks buying property in NZ are doing. a single tree that retains some green foliage during drought can keep a dozen animals and birds and a few hundred insects alive that would otherwise die in dry spells. it is possible to build these refuges in places that are either inhospitable to humans or useless due to land abuse. it's perfectly possible to get reforestation going on land that can no longer support crops. I'm helping with salt marsh right now, it's ex-agricultural land that will never hold stock or be built on again because it's ending up underwater more and more frequently but it supports thousands of other species that don't care all that much about inundation or actively benefit from it
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Oct 24, 2017 01:22
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This looks like its gonna happen in the next decade or two - is that correct?
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Oct 24, 2017 01:25
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Iqaluit's gonna thaw and fall into the ocean, homie. They losing 40m per year in some parts of the north. Also that's a circumstance of geographical location, not of human action making Iqaluit better to live in by planting trees and learning how to garden. I mean I've been pretty consistent in saying that moving to New Zealand is the smart move if you've got the means to do so. It's kinda the main reason I went back to college to get a degree that can get me on the list of professions that they expect to have need of in the future.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:27
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Telephones posted:This looks like its gonna happen in the next decade or two - is that correct? The main issue of uncertainty right now is that we're looking at exponential feedbacks. When we look at the size of methane seeps in the ESAS for example, we see a power law distribution of bubble plumes with larger plumes emitting about 5 base ten orders of magnitude more methane than smaller plumes. If permafrost cap breach can continue to allow methane release at sizes a few orders of magnitude above the levels we see now, then human emissions can become completely dwarfed by methane release. Regardless, when you look at middle-of-the-road outcomes, we will likely see ice sheet collapse and runaway warming lead to economic collapse around the 2040-2060 time window. This isn't taking into effect other confounding factors like mass insect or shell-builder extinction which we've been seeing hints of in scientific literature this year. I think the 2020s is when scientific research will truly show us the writing on the wall, and I think interesting mass actions will occur as humanity moves from the denial phase to the anger phase of our climate reality.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:31
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Telephones posted:This looks like its gonna happen in the next decade or two - is that correct? "This" as in "the permafrost's all gonna melt"? Yea probably. There's no due date set in stone for the end of global civilization, but if there was it'd be getting moved earlier almost constantly these days.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:32
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re: Exponential feedbacks http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/nick-breeze/203-subsea-permafrost-on-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-now-in-accelerated-decline quote:This edge between it being linear and becoming exponential is very fine and lays between frozen and thawed states of subsea permafrost. This is what we call the turning point. To me, I cannot take the responsibility in saying there is a right point between the linear and exponential yet, but following the logic of our investigation and all the evidence that we accumulated so far, it makes me think that we are very near this point. And in this particular point, each year matters. quote:Nick Breeze: Does a sudden burst of methane become feasible as the subsea permafrost is destabilised? GHG atmospheric saturation has a logarithmic warming potential, but if release rate can exceed this exponentially to the point that warming potential exceeds the fourth power stefan-boltzmann relationship, then we can in theory create a runaway greenhouse effect. More than anything else, this is what keeps me up at night. Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Oct 24, 2017 |
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Oct 24, 2017 01:35
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When one of the worlds leading experts on climate change says they can't discount a gigatonne release from arctic methane, shits hosed.
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Oct 24, 2017 01:51
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