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Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

Lockback posted:

Oh poo poo, missed that. Reading comprehension has been crap lately.

It happens. :shobon:

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EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

Time posted:

lol is this true

I mean, that dude might not know who to trust about the shape of the earth but he is a world-class expert at bouncing a basketball on certain types of floors


speaking of stats that completely match the eye test.

AggressivelyStupid
Jan 9, 2012



:thunk:

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

Lockback posted:

I would point out a bunch of us were saying they were going to be up and down the first quarter of the season as they make some pretty big adjustments. Teams going through this much shift usually don't come out of the gate looking fully baked. There shouldn't be too much surprise that they duke it out with OKC one night and then get rolled by the Pacers and Pistons back2back.

I just hate Wiggins.

mikeraskol
May 3, 2006

Oh yeah. I was killing you.

Who is that directly above Harden?

Also good lord Lebron and Giannis.

AggressivelyStupid
Jan 9, 2012

quote:

The concept of total points added (TPA), isn’t particularly complicated. We’re looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives.

At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:

Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions.
Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions.

Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis—twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.

As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

Fast Luck posted:

They let all the offense run through him so he'll get assists on their made shots, but he shot 2/11. Last game he shot 3/13, the first game he shot 1/6, and even the outlier game where the Suns gave up and let him have free points, he only shot 44%. The flaw that people saw with him coming in still seems to be there in spades. He's plenty young, but that shot as it exists is ugly and janky and he deserves to be missing so many of his attempts. I think it's still an open question whether he can figure out how to shoot a basketball.

Yea, Lonzo has a decent shot at being the negative NP king this season:

code:
NP	Player
41.4	Giannis Antetokounmpo
39.32	Stephen Curry
37	LeBron James
29.76	Karl-Anthony Towns
28.6	Victor Oladipo


-14.76	Jamal Murray
-14.96	Lonzo Ball
-17.44	J.R. Smith
-19.72	Lance Stephenson
-20.08	Donovan Mitchell

Time posted:

What NBA player walked away from the league with the most potential win shares left in the tank? Larry Sanders? Magic? No len bias jokes.

-Wilton Chamberlain (seriously he had 18.2 WS in his final season). Putting up better numbers at age 36 than a lot of guys who win MVPs.
-Michael Jordan
-Chet Walker

Alex Groza is the #1 answer in some respects (but he was kicked out of the league). He was set to dominate the 1950s NBA.

Noctone posted:

Everyone: “Will this be the year that LeBron finally looks human?”

LeBron: “Actually, “

LBJ's gone to seven straight finals and still looks like an MVP. It's a shame he has to play with this mediocre squad full of old people and the infirmed and people high on PCP etc.

Hand Row
May 28, 2001
Seems like the Suns are holding out for Murray, Brogdon or Ntlikina for Bledsoe, with no team biting yet obviously.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
https://twitter.com/Sportando/status/923645728668508160

Doncic and Lauri :allears:

Can't wait

cougar cub
Jun 28, 2004

Paul Zuvella posted:

I’m listening to the Ringer NBA show and holy poo poo is Chris Vernon a terrible host

I agree. I’ve pretty much stopped listening to him / that pod.

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

mikeraskol posted:

Who is that directly above Harden?

Also good lord Lebron and Giannis.

Victor Oladipo (he's improved so far this year).

Cool Buff Man posted:

John Wall should be publicly shamed for the way he ended the game.

https://twitter.com/ChandranTheMan/status/923420451329662976

Nice shooting form. Looks like a slinky snake coiling up.


People still don't capitalize the B in LeBron.

big boi
Jun 11, 2007

Paul Zuvella posted:

I’m listening to the Ringer NBA show and holy poo poo is Chris Vernon a terrible host

God yes, every show is him making a painfully obvious point in the most tortuous way possible, saying "would have done" instead of "had done" at every turn like the boorish hayseed he is, and then throwing it to Kevin O'Connor, who is actually a talented NBA analyst but has nothing to add after the deluge of slurry that's just been poured into the mic. Simmons, OTOH, is at least entertaining when he's saying dumb poo poo to KOC or Zach Lowe.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Dwayne Bacon is a classic second-rounder people get way overexcited about, he's played solid defense and hits open threes so I'm projecting him as a 10-time All-Star

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Paul Zuvella posted:

I’m listening to the Ringer NBA show and holy poo poo is Chris Vernon a terrible host

Yeah

Talk radio levels

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

yeah Eli and Cutler are two guys I had in mind

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

defensive player of the year al-farouq aminu

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations

Zogo posted:

Victor Oladipo (he's improved so far this year).

It'd be kind of funny if Oladipo becomes an excellent player and Paul George bounces to LA.

Punkin Spunkin
Jan 1, 2010

AggressivelyStupid
Jan 9, 2012


NBA champion trailblazers incoming

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

When I die, I hope they say I made the eSports industry a better place than I made millions of dollars.

Spacebump posted:

It'd be kind of funny if Oladipo becomes an excellent player and Paul George bounces to LA.

I think the entirety of moves OKC did this offseason are going to backfire spectacularly and their ceiling with the roster they put together is not much higher than what it was last season.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

AggressivelyStupid posted:

NBA champion trailblazers incoming

They aren't in the s tier quadrant I think

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
It literally doesn't matter if the moves backfire for OKC. They got Russ longterm, and got off Oladipo's contract if PG leaves.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
Oladipo is not very good

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Hmmm yes a team that can't score or defend without their best player has the same ceiling that one that can with the best player being the same player yes this makes sense

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

leftist heap posted:

Oladipo is not very good

I mean, he's going to regress but he has been balling out to start the season.

Ghost Dog
Aug 17, 2016

Metapod posted:

Hmmm yes a team that can't score or defend without their best player has the same ceiling that one that can with the best player being the same player yes this makes sense

i mean yesterday he said TT is a bad defender and rebounder im not sure if his takes are so flaming hot as to cause their own reality or if he just hasnt watched any basketball



also oladipo is currently shooting 10% higher than his career average from 3. thats...not going to continue

Tae
Oct 24, 2010

Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!
Living in the short nba era when Orlando is the 2nd best offensive team in the league

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

it's cool but some of those things towards the end aren't real stats

1520 SAT
802.11 IEEE
7.62 FMJ

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

How is this calculated?

Taytum is averaging like 14.8 a game. Why is his offensive value negative?

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Ts% assist rate and turnover rate are all very important for orating iirc

AggressivelyStupid
Jan 9, 2012

Charlz Guybon posted:

How is this calculated?

Taytum is averaging like 14.8 a game. Why is his offensive value negative?

The concept of total points added (TPA), isn’t particularly complicated. We’re looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives.

At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:

Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions.
Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions.

Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis—twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.

As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Is it VORP

Ghost Dog
Aug 17, 2016

i propose: taetum

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Now that the stepback and nylon calculus are dead websites, does anyone have some favorite NBA analysis people/places?

I listened to that Lowe/Ben Falk podcast and heard them rehash consensus we've reached years ago. I want #lightyearsahead. MAybe I'm going to have to start doing the work :(


My fears about Simmons have been mostly allayed. He just has a dead inexpressive face like a phone addict and seems to have chemistry with his less addled teammates

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Oct 26, 2017

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011

big boi posted:

God yes, every show is him making a painfully obvious point in the most tortuous way possible, saying "would have done" instead of "had done" at every turn like the boorish hayseed he is, and then throwing it to Kevin O'Connor, who is actually a talented NBA analyst but has nothing to add after the deluge of slurry that's just been poured into the mic. Simmons, OTOH, is at least entertaining when he's saying dumb poo poo to KOC or Zach Lowe.

In the most recent episode he tries to argue that dropping Jameer Nelson was going to hurt the Nuggets and Kevin O'Connor literally makes fun of him.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

zoux posted:

Is it VORP

Charlz Guybon posted:

How is this calculated?

Taytum is averaging like 14.8 a game. Why is his offensive value negative?

It uses OBPM. Taytum's is -1.0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01.html

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Looks like relatively high turnovers and low assists killing him

Idk

Athanatos
Jun 7, 2006

Est. 2000

leftist heap posted:

Oladipo is not very good

Counterpoint:

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Before the season, people said, The CLIPPERS may not even make the PLAYOFFS. No one remembers how great Blake Griffin was without Paul slowing things to a crawl and moving everyone around with hand gestures. They forgot how versatile a healthy Danilo Gallinari is, and they aren't disgustingly addicted to baskteball so they didn't know about Milos Teodosic. Beverely has always been underrated, George Hill is a less mean and slightly better version of the archetype and he got a max contract. They also have a little bit of depth for the first time since Eric Bledsoe was on the team.

Athanatos posted:

Counterpoint:


Indianapolis is playing in the perfect style for Oladipo, endless running, spreading the floor, with tons of opportunities to use puma man quickness to finish cleanly. Playing as a traditionalish sg in OKC made Dipo look extremely mediocre. He's at his best when the game is a series of sprints. He's like Will Barton but built like a mountain cat instead of a serpent.

It makes me happy for Indiana fans, because they seem to like basketball.

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Oct 27, 2017

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zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Sad news out of Philly
https://twitter.com/JoelEmbiid/status/923686316050735104

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