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Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

Don Dongington posted:

Oh look Parry is actually resigning

Also Sportsbet now have Bishop as the favourite to take over from Prime Minister Trumble. You know because she hasn't been literally the only viable option this entire time or anything.



:eyepop:

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DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Don Dongington posted:

Oh look Parry is actually resigning

Also Sportsbet now have Bishop as the favourite to take over from Prime Minister Trumble. You know because she hasn't been literally the only viable option this entire time or anything.

Bishop needs to have the locks changed before Trumpbull returns. He can collect his things in a cardboard box from security.

The Before Times
Mar 8, 2014

Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.
Bishop is too clever to challenge Trumble while he's a sitting PM though. She'll bide her time until the LNP loses the next election and then go for leadership, if she ever wants to move on from being deputy.

the old ceremony
Aug 1, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
within five years it's going to be bishop vs hanson neck and neck for second female prime minister of australia you mark my drat words

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

The Before Times posted:

Bishop is too clever to challenge Trumble while he's a sitting PM though. She'll bide her time until the LNP loses the next election and then go for leadership, if she ever wants to move on from being deputy.

Being leader straight after losing an election is a thankless task generally.

If Shorten wins the next election he'll be the first person in over a century to go from being in government to being opposition leader to being PM.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
Do you mean with no break in between?

Because howard was all 3 of those at one point or another, but also Hewson.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Don Dongington posted:

Do you mean with no break in between?

Because howard was all 3 of those at one point or another, but also Hewson.

Yeah, with no break.

It generally takes a while for the opposition to get their poo poo together, which is why we never got PMs Nelson, Beazley or Peacock. Before that the ex-PM used to stick around for a bit.

E: It's not a hard and fast rule but it's easy to see why someone wouldn't want the thankless task of rebuilding a party. See Peter Costello's actions after the election loss in 2007 for another example.

Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 13:14 on Nov 1, 2017

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I've long said that Bishop will be the next Lib leader and I am going to call it now that she will be PM after the next election.

Prediction: they make it clear to Turnbull that a challenge is coming and to save face he will call a leadership ballot saying that the party needs refreshing or some such thing. Bishop will win the leadership and then the next federal election.

Australia loses.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.
The NSW Young Liberals have provoked a strong reaction on social media after posting a photograph in support of embattled ice-cream manufacturer Streets on its Facebook page.

The photograph posted by the NSW Young Liberals features a man and a woman holding Cornettos, a brand of ice-cream made by Streets.

A caption beneath the photograph reads: "Quick #cornettocaucus to support Streets ice-cream. Nothing wrong with Australian jobs and investment."

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

Senor Tron posted:

I've long said that Bishop will be the next Lib leader and I am going to call it now that she will be PM after the next election.

Prediction: they make it clear to Turnbull that a challenge is coming and to save face he will call a leadership ballot saying that the party needs refreshing or some such thing. Bishop will win the leadership and then the next federal election.

Australia loses.

Yeah but so do the libs.

The Before Times
Mar 8, 2014

Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

Senor Tron posted:

I've long said that Bishop will be the next Lib leader and I am going to call it now that she will be PM after the next election.

Prediction: they make it clear to Turnbull that a challenge is coming and to save face he will call a leadership ballot saying that the party needs refreshing or some such thing. Bishop will win the leadership and then the next federal election.

Australia loses.

IDK if Malcolm would be able to get over his own ego for long enough to do that tbh.

I'd be shocked if the LNP, especially Bishop, would be stupid enough to change leadership before the election.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


The Before Times posted:

IDK if Malcolm would be able to get over his own ego for long enough to do that tbh.

I'd be shocked if the LNP, especially Bishop, would be stupid enough to change leadership before the election.

Turnbull knows how shaky his position is, it's why he has no spine as pm. I think there's a good chance he tries to pretend it's his idea to step down once he knows he's done.

If/when that happens the Libs will be in frantic "who can win us the election?!" mode and go for their most popular candidate. Bishop knows it's a long shot but takes it, since if they lose the election as badly as it's looking the party will be looking for major change and won't put the old deputy in charge.

So she takes the leadership, the media laps her up and the Australian voting public decides to give Bishop a chance.

Schlesische
Jul 4, 2012

Lid posted:

A caption beneath the photograph reads: "Quick #cornettocaucus to support Streets ice-cream. Nothing wrong with Australian jobs and investment."

No-one tell them Unilever isn't Australian.

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



Was listening to the radio this morning, had Andrew Wilkie on, he seems like a good egg.

Lots of talk about a "truce" between labour and liberal on not having an audit of MPs dual citizenship status in case it's "embarrassing" for labour and i'm just sitting there like :|

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
Broadcaster Alan Jones has lent his support to One Nation at the Queensland election in a video message to voters.

After launching a series of visceral attacks on premier Campbell Newman ahead of his 2015 election defeat, Jones has entered the state campaign, accusing the major parties of bowing to donors.

The Sydney-based broadcaster has been a long-time opponent of the proposed expansion of the Acland coalmine, on the Darling Downs, and more recently of Adani’s, in central Queensland.

In the video message to be broadcast online, Jones warns that voters should be sceptical about political donations going to the major parties and praises One Nation state leader Steve Dickson.

“Queenslanders should be very concerned about where the big money is going in this election campaign and what it’s going to buy, what favours it’s going to buy,’’ says Jones, who was filmed wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with the words “I’m sticking with Steve Dickson’’.

“They will be pumping it into both major parties.

“The battler will be run over and forgotten by the big money men and that’s why serious consideration must be given to One Nation supporting the battler.

“Steve Dickson’s doing a terrific job fighting for those people and that’s why, as I said, I think he is a serious candidate in this election campaign.’’

Jones told The Australian he had not met Mr Dickson, a former Newman government minister who defected to lead One Nation.

“I haven’t met Steve Dickson. I’ve only interviewed him on air, but he has indicated to me in writing that they will be upholding the Land Court decision,’’ he said.

Jones grew up on a farm near the Acland mine, owned by New Hope. Earlier this year, the Land Court rejected an application to expand the mining leases and an environmental authority. The non-binding decision found the enlargement of the open-cut coalmine should not proceed because it posed too great a risk to groundwater and landholders.

The Land Court’s decision is the subject of a judicial review. On Tuesday night, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said that if she was re-elected she would abide by the outcome of the judicial review.

Polls show One Nation may hold the balance of power after the November 25 election. Jones told The Australian that One Nation “clearly have said they’ll abide by the Land Court decision in relation to the Acland mine”.

“Perhaps the only hope Queenslanders have to have the law upheld is if One Nation determines after the vote, who will form government and what will happen in government,’’ he said.

During the 2015 campaign Jones told listeners the then premier could not be trusted, claiming Mr Newman had lied to him about the expansion of the Acland mine before he was elected in 2012.

“Campbell Newman told me in my house that if he were to become premier there would be no Acland stage three,” he told Queensland listeners.

Mr Newman later launched legal proceedings against Jones, who also accused the LNP of “prostitution’’, but the legal action was dropped.

The video was sent to The Australian after Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls visited the Sunshine Coast.

Mr Dickson holds the Sunshine Coast seat of Buderim, which is being targeted by the LNP.

Mr Nicholls’ announced funding for a long-needed duplication of a stretch of railway to the Sunshine Coast.

But the pledge clearly irked Mr Dickson, who said it fell $550 million short of the $850m needed to finish the whole duplication ­project.

EDIT with another: LNP to lock up youths and disable welfare of parents whose kids are out at night after 10am.

A CURFEW banning kids from the streets late at night will be introduced to tackle Townsville’s youth crime issue should the LNP be elected.

In a Queensland first, the LNP has committed to a six-month trial of a curfew for children under 16 roaming the streets after 10pm unless in the company of a parent or adult guardian.

Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls has also committed to holding parents of young offenders in Townsville accountable by stopping welfare payments when their children are in youth detention.

Mr Nicholls said the curfew strategy was part of a comprehensive $25.9 million North Queensland Crime Action Plan that would be released in full today.

“We will implement a six-month, $1.3 million youth curfew strategy named Operation Townsville Safe Streets to help residents get their community back,” Mr Nicholls said.

“Young kids found roaming Townsville streets will be collected by police and looked after at a local emergency accommodation shelter until they can be safely returned to their parents.

“The shelter will be staffed with a counsellor and nurse to ensure the wellbeing of the child, while ensuring the community is protected.”

Mr Nicholls said young thugs roaming the streets would soon learn that it was not worth the risk of being caught and their parents would also feel the consequences of their actions.

“The Townsville community is crying out for action and leadership on this issue and is sick to death of these young criminals running amok with impunity,” he said.

“That is why we will partner with the Commonwealth Government to ensure parents of a child in youth detention don’t receive welfare payments they would normally receive while that child is behind bars.”

In January, the State Labor Government knocked back calls for a youth curfew in Townsville back in January when a petition with 6000 supporters was lodged.

Then acting Attorney-General Dr Anthony Lynham said a curfew which applies to all young people could have the undesired effect of drawing more young people into the youth justice system.

“I share the petitioners’ concerns for the safety of all concerned when children and young people are out late at night unsupervised,” Dr Lynham said.

“Youth curfews have been common in the United States since the early 1990s.

“A recent systematic review of research on the effectiveness of those curfews did not show they were effective in reducing crime and victimisation.”

However, Mr Nicholls said curfew policies had proven successful overseas.

“In Iceland, a curfew has been in place for many years and today that country has some of the world’s cleanest-living teens,” he said.

“The curfew combined with organised sporting activities and spending time with their parents saw a huge decline in the percentage of 15- and 16 year-olds who had been drunk, using drugs and smoking.

“It is why we have committed to funding more activities at the PCYC to keep youths entertained on top of the curfew.

Closer to home Northbridge, an inner city suburb in Perth has had a successful curfew in place for 14 years.

Mr Nicholls believes the trial in Townsville could create a prototype for other Queensland cities to adopt in the future as the LNP looks to tackle youth crime state wide.

“WA Labor Premier Geoff Gallop actually put in place a curfew in the Northbridge precinct in 2003 and it has been enforced ever since,” he said.

“The Northbridge example saw a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people.

“It is something we believe we can replicate in Townsville and if successful, roll out to other cities across the state dealing with youth crime epidemics.”

Mr Nicholls said the curfew strategy was not just about stopping crime or preventing kids being victims of crime but also about helping children have the best chance in life.

Mr Nicholls will host a crime forum at the Ryan Community Centre, 46 Morindo Drive, Kirwan, tonight from 6pm with a 5.40 arrival.

Anidav fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Nov 1, 2017

MysticalMachineGun
Apr 5, 2005

Waleed Aly in the New York Times posted:

MELBOURNE, Australia — No issue has been such a political graveyard in Australia as climate change. At least three prime ministers from the last decade have had their tenure buried there: John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard all lost their jobs, at least in part, for trying and failing to deliver polices to combat climate change.

Say wut Waleed

MysticalMachineGun
Apr 5, 2005


Yes, throw your support behind One Nation, the clearly not bought-and-sold party. Who's running in Ipswich again?

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.
SPEAKING OF ONE NATION:

Malcolm Roberts adviser Sean Black charged with rape

quote:

A top adviser to dumped One Nation senator turned Queensland election candidate Malcolm Roberts has been charged with rape.

Queensland police arrested and charged Sean Black with seven offences, including three counts of assault and three counts of assault occasioning bodily harm, on May 24.

quote:

Mr Black has been a controversial figure in Queensland politics, starting out in the 1990s as a backroom Labor operative tasked with destroying Pauline Hanson's party when she first burst onto the scene.

He left the ALP after being caught up in a vote-rigging scandal detailed in the Shepherdson corruption inquiry. He was never charged with any crimes but subsequently gravitated towards conservative politics.

Sounds like a piece of work.

You Am I
May 20, 2001

Me @ your poasting

Turnbull looked very rattled during a speech ABC just showed on the news channel. Kept missing words, stuttering, he's cooked

Synthbuttrange
May 6, 2007

NAB has flagged the loss of 6,000 jobs as the impact of new technology and digital transactions cuts a swathe through traditional banking jobs.

The job losses over three years were announced as the bank revealed a full year net profit of $5.3 billion.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/nab-full-year-profit-2017/9109898

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

You Am I posted:

Turnbull looked very rattled during a speech ABC just showed on the news channel. Kept missing words, stuttering, he's cooked

What was he talking about? I want to look it up.

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



Synthbuttrange posted:

NAB has flagged the loss of 6,000 jobs as the impact of new technology and digital transactions cuts a swathe through traditional banking jobs.

The job losses over three years were announced as the bank revealed a full year net profit of $5.3 billion.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/nab-full-year-profit-2017/9109898

"We have an image problem we need to counter in order to avoid a royal commission, how do we fix it"
"Announce a profit of $5.3 billion as well as 6000 job losses at the same time"
"loving perfect, take another line"

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop

JBP posted:

What was he talking about? I want to look it up.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...26ac08458a0799c Teaser at about 20 secs in. The subject was Parry's resignation delay.

Schlesische posted:

No-one tell them Unilever isn't Australian.
They're as Aussie as Vegemite and Arnott's ANZAC biscuits cobber!

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/significant-funding-cut-for-nsw-corruption-investigation-unit-20171101-gzcpby.html

quote:

NOVEMBER 2 2017 - 12:15AM 'Significant' funding cut for NSW corruption investigation unit Sean Nicholls

A funding cut of more than $800,000 has forced the NSW corruption watchdog to slash the number of investigative units from four to three and axe six full-time investigators. The decision, detailed in the Independent Commission Against Corruption's annual report, follows a fall in an operating grant from the Department of Premier and Cabinet from $1.34 million in 2015-16 to $529,000 last financial year.

Megan Latham has announced her resignation as chief of the NSW corruption watchdog, just days after learning she would be forced to reapply for her job. In his 2016-17 report, then acting ICAC Commissioner Reg Blanch writes that as a consequence of the "significant" funding cut the agency has "adapted to meet the challenges in delivering its investigation outcomes." The challenges included "maintaining the capacity to deliver [ICAC's] current level of performance - both in quality and timeliness - for significant investigations with a 25 per cent decrease in the number of investigative teams".

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the government "is completely committed to a strong ICAC to ensure the highest levels of integrity in the public sector". LOL
The report shows that in 2016-17 ICAC commenced 27 preliminary investigations - down from 41 the previous financial year - while the number of full investigations remained steady at 10. Mr Blanch also noted that 89 per cent of full investigations were completed within the target of 16 months - a "marked improvement" on the 60 per cent recorded in 2015-16 against the benchmark of 80 per cent. Last year ICAC said it had been plunged into a "funding crisis" after then Premier Mike Baird flagged it would not be given what the government calls "supplementary funding" for 2016-17. It said at the time that the $1.3 million grant in 2015-16 reflected an "abnormally high level of activity" by ICAC and that base funding had been maintained. Premier Gladys Berejiklian noted that while ICAC was awarded a grant of $529,000 in 2016-17 it returned $400,000 that was "unexpended", leaving the amount spent at $129,000. She told Fairfax Media that the government "is completely committed to a strong ICAC to ensure the highest levels of integrity in the public sector. We will always consider requests for extra funding, should the Commission require additional resources. We have done this on a number of occasions," Ms Berejiklian said. "ICAC plays a vital role investigating, exposing and preventing corruption and we will continue to support it at all times."

The cut comes after ICAC underwent a controversial restructure, which resulted in the single commissioner model replaced by one with a chief commissioner and two part-time commissioners. Under the change, the inaugural chief commissioner, Peter Hall, QC, and one part-time commissioner must agree before public hearings are held. Former commissioner Megan Latham resigned after being told she would have to reapply for her job following legislation for the restructure passed parliament in November last year. The move led former assistant ICAC commissioner Anthony Whealy to warn corruption fighting in NSW "has been set back for years".

Ooops.

UrbanLabyrinth
Jan 28, 2009

When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence


College Slice
Same-sex marriage: Data study predicts narrow 'Yes' loss

quote:

An academic study of Twitter opinions is pointing to a narrow defeat for the 'yes' vote in the same-sex marriage survey.

The study is at odds with myriad opinion polls showing the 'yes' vote could be as high as 60 per cent.

While 72 per cent of tweets favoured same-sex marriage, less than 15 per cent were sent by people over the age of 55, a Griffith University study shows.

Academics David Tuffley and Bela Stantic used advanced data analytics which they say have proven uncannily accurate at predicting the outcomes of hard-to-call polls, including the 2016 US presidential election.

They looked at the publicly available data from 458,565 tweets through October 2017.

On the face of it, when all the captured Tweets were considered, there appeared to be overwhelming support for 'yes', they said.

Taking the sentiment of the unique users into account, the adjusted figure in support came down to from 72 per to 57 per cent.

Adjusting the low proportion of tweets from over-55s and matching it against the 36 per cent of the voter pool they represent, support for 'yes' comes down to 49 per cent.

"So it is likely to be a close-run result, much closer than the earlier polls suggested, and leaning in the direction of 'no,' Professor Stantic and Mr Tuffley said.

"One of the problems with predicting poll outcomes is that people are often reluctant to say out loud what they really think about issues," the pair argue.

"What people say online can often be more accurate than what they say to each other in this age of political correctness."

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

Senor Tron posted:

If/when that happens the Libs will be in frantic "who can win us the election?!" mode and go for their most popular candidate. Bishop knows it's a long shot but takes it, since if they lose the election as badly as it's looking the party will be looking for major change and won't put the old deputy in charge.

So she takes the leadership, the media laps her up and the Australian voting public decides to give Bishop a chance.
this is wonderful fanfiction that completely misinterprets the LNP’s current internal power struggles

The Before Times
Mar 8, 2014

Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

This is silly

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

Yeah it's not very good. I don't think yes will romp it in because straya, but my take is about at scientifically sound as this.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
Good thing it's not a mandatory survey and the no vote have said in multiple other polls they're much less likely to turn out.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
My dad voted yes and then told me about a "really tough poofter that used to drink with at the pub he worked in" around South Melbourne in the 70s. "You didn't gently caress with this bloke, he'd punch your lights out."

Better than nothing dad.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
In fact I haven't had a single fight with a boomer that revolves around my sphere in life over SSM. I went to my very Irish Catholic side of the family's big get together a few months ago and expected it to be a hot button, but we are now the proud owners of a lesbian couple so everyone was on board.

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.

Twitter is terrible, shocker.

quote:

An academic study of Twitter opinions

If your article starts with that, maybe just don't write any more?

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



I hope the jam man emigrates to australia and takes over the ALP

we've got enough british dual citizens in parliament, what's one more??

NPR Journalizard
Feb 14, 2008

Zenithe posted:

Twitter is terrible, shocker.


If your article starts with that, maybe just don't write any more?

Twitter is people. People are terrible. People did the survey. Terrible people did the survey.

Why is analysing a massive source of data bad now?

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

I can't find any other link other than this piece on The Conversation. I think that both writers may be falling into the trap of overstating their findings/research, because it's difficult to verify the methods critically/scientifically. At this point, we are taking the word of two researchers who are definitely angling for research funding, as we are getting into ~~grant season~~.

I think it's a really interesting and novel way of investigating how the polls might fall, but there's also other pitfalls, like we don't actually know how many twitter accounts are legit (from either side). Also who the gently caress engages in twitter warfare like christ it is definitely not the forum to change an individual's opinion.

I also think that the result is definitely going to be very close, thus hopefully shattering any remaining veneer that Australia might be mistaken for a progressive nation (we aren't)

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

NPR Journalizard posted:

Twitter is people. People are terrible. People did the survey. Terrible people did the survey.

Why is analysing a massive source of data bad now?

Because they said it accurately predicted Trump, but that doesn't apply to first past the post since it was inaccurate on that front. It's a joke study with a joke outcome in a joke article and isn't worth respecting.

e: there's also no data for what those "over-55s" are going to do and everything else to date reckons they're virtually split down the middle on ssm. If they can explain how they came to assigning those voters a yes or a no I might give it credence.

JBP fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Nov 2, 2017

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

JBP posted:

Because they said it accurately predicted Trump, but that doesn't apply to first past the post since it was inaccurate on that front. It's a joke study with a joke outcome in a joke article and isn't worth respecting.

It seems pretty reasonable? What does first past the post have to do with anything?

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/925871722934321152

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

open24hours posted:

It seems pretty reasonable? What does first past the post have to do with anything?

Shillary got 3m more votes.

idk there isn't enough info in the article, but whatever. if ssm goes down ill just loving kill myself because its over

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

JBP posted:

e: there's also no data for what those "over-55s" are going to do and everything else to date reckons they're virtually split down the middle on ssm. If they can explain how they came to assigning those voters a yes or a no I might give it credence.
The Conversation piece has slightly more detail

Conversation posted:

Looking carefully at the demographics, it emerges that less than 15% of the total Tweets were sent by people over the age of 55. Of these over-55s, only 34% expressed support for Yes."
It's a really lovely analysis overall. The US stuff is laughably bad.

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NPR Journalizard
Feb 14, 2008

JBP posted:

Because they said it accurately predicted Trump, but that doesn't apply to first past the post since it was inaccurate on that front. It's a joke study with a joke outcome in a joke article and isn't worth respecting.

e: there's also no data for what those "over-55s" are going to do and everything else to date reckons they're virtually split down the middle on ssm. If they can explain how they came to assigning those voters a yes or a no I might give it credence.

quote:

We gauged the sentiment of these tweets with a rule-based model that combines a domain-specific lexicon (a dictionary of terms with assigned sentiment weighting) with a series of intensifiers (the punctuation, emoticons and other heuristics). Together, this makes it possible to know which side of the debate the person sits on, and how strongly they feel about it.
https://theconversation.com/social-media-study-points-to-a-close-result-in-the-same-sex-marriage-vote-84436

I know this is an appeal to authority, but im still going to trust the people who studied this as a job over some random forum poster.

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