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Congrats to those goons who were long WTW. Nicely done if you still got it!
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Nov 2, 2017 22:38
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It just seems to me like if electric cars take off any existing car company can probably switch production to electric for a fraction of what it’ll cost Tesla to build out. And I don’t see why there’d be much of a first-mover advantage for the cars (for the charging stations, yes). Feeling about self-driving cars is about the same. Good deal if you’re building the infrastructure or creating the standards, otherwise come to market 2 years late and license the tech from google or apple or whoever. That’s probably what all but one of the companies spending on R&D are going to end up doing. Anyway so that means Tesla’s value is pretty much all in the brand. Their huge capex doesn’t seem that huge when you think how much you’d need to spend to make Ford or GM from scratch. Trillions, probably. That’s the car makers’ moat.
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Nov 2, 2017 22:53
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AAPL crushes earnings. So that's another tech giant that continues to print money. But we're in a bubble.
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Nov 3, 2017 01:34
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lol yes
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Nov 3, 2017 01:40
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y'all huffing farts up in here
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Nov 3, 2017 02:25
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:It just seems to me like if electric cars take off any existing car company can probably switch production to electric for a fraction of what it’ll cost Tesla to build out. And I don’t see why there’d be much of a first-mover advantage for the cars (for the charging stations, yes). Feeling about self-driving cars is about the same. Good deal if you’re building the infrastructure or creating the standards, otherwise come to market 2 years late and license the tech from google or apple or whoever. That’s probably what all but one of the companies spending on R&D are going to end up doing. Anyway so that means Tesla’s value is pretty much all in the brand. melon cat fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Mar 16, 2019 |
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Nov 3, 2017 15:22
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melon cat posted:Yeah, that's the way I feel about it. If Mercedes or BMW, for example, decided to hop into the EV game they'd be able to do so since already have the production capacity and distribution network. And even though Tesla's value is, as you said, mostly in the brand you can say the same for BMW. A lot of people buy BMW because, well, it's a BMW. They already have. BWM has the i series and Mercedes is dumping a ton of money into it. The problem is all their offerings or concepts look wonky as gently caress. I don't understand why every electric car produced by any manufacturer other than Tesla needs to look ridiculous. It has been noted before that this is Tesla's competitive advantage, but it is also something luxury car manufacturer's could pivot on a dime for once they realize EVs don't need to look like they came out of a TRON movie.
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Nov 3, 2017 16:22
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paternity suitor posted:AAPL crushes earnings. So that's another tech giant that continues to print money. But we're in a bubble. This right here is the kind of logic that creates bubbles. When things are going well and the attitude becomes 'JUST KEEP BUYING'. A company can have 50% net margins and make a billion dollars a quarter- doesn't mean the company is worth $200 billion. That's said, I don't think AAPL is out of whack and have said several times that it's the one big tech not out of whack.
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Nov 3, 2017 16:44
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Cheesemaster200 posted:The problem is all their offerings or concepts look wonky as gently caress. I don't understand why every electric car produced by any manufacturer other than Tesla needs to look ridiculous. The same reason hybrids need to look ridiculous* - conspicuous environmentalism. People don't just want to do what's right for the environment, they want other people to know that they're doing it. * yes yes I know not all of them do nowadays, but pretty much everyone buys the Prius anyway
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Nov 3, 2017 16:45
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greasyhands posted:This right here is the kind of logic that creates bubbles. When things are going well and the attitude becomes 'JUST KEEP BUYING'. A company can have 50% net margins and make a billion dollars a quarter- doesn't mean the company is worth $200 billion. That's said, I don't think AAPL is out of whack and have said several times that it's the one big tech not out of whack. I feel the tech market is like the movie Speed. Everything is peachy as long as you are above 60 mph, but the second you drop below that poo poo blows up. For example, people are fine with AMZN not making any reasonable income because their rate of top-line growth is so high. Once that inevitably slows down, the prevailing market narrative could potentially turn against them. I think a lot of other tech firms are also in a similar boat. They may seem like rock stars right now, but how long can that last? How many quarters can Amazon and others realistically show 30% revenue growth? I define a bubble as absurd valuations without any backing from fundamentals. I agree that isn't the current case with tech stocks, but it doesn't mean that valuations are not still based upon ever increasing high expectations for the future. The higher those expectations get, the harder they become to meet.
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Nov 3, 2017 17:18
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Any guesses on what Apple will do with its $250,000,000,000 in cash? Re: the bubble - we saw that to a certain extent with SHOP reporting a slowdown in the rate of growth. TSLA didn't exactly dazzle, either. Maybe things cool off soon, but who can time it?
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Nov 3, 2017 17:52
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LLCoolJD posted:Any guesses on what Apple will do with its $250,000,000,000 in cash? 
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Nov 3, 2017 17:58
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Syrinxx posted:I'm sure they'll create lots of jobs with it  Does anyone see them making some big acquisitions? I've not heard much about Apple acquisitions other than below-the-radar tech companies.
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Nov 3, 2017 18:08
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greasyhands posted:This right here is the kind of logic that creates bubbles. When things are going well and the attitude becomes 'JUST KEEP BUYING'. A company can have 50% net margins and make a billion dollars a quarter- doesn't mean the company is worth $200 billion. That's said, I don't think AAPL is out of whack and have said several times that it's the one big tech not out of whack. No it’s not. My point is that valuations are based on continued strong earnings which are growing. And rates are low so higher multiples are justified. But half this thread is convinced we’re in a bubble despite that. If a company makes $1B a quarter and is growing at 50% a year, yes it would be fairly valued at $200B. If it’s growing at 25% a year ok, it’s worth something less. In this environment though you are going to have to pay a premium because nothing else gives you a return. So you should be expected to pay more than $20 for $1 in earnings growing at 20% a year. Maybe $25, I don’t know, it’s actually a little subjective.
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Nov 3, 2017 18:19
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LLCoolJD posted:Any guesses on what Apple will do with its $250,000,000,000 in cash? Stimulate the economy of Bermuda due to prohibitively high corporate tax rates in the US.
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Nov 3, 2017 18:34
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Stimulate the economy of Bermuda due to prohibitively high corporate tax rates in the US. Bermuda is absurdly expensive, but a nice place to visit
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Nov 3, 2017 19:08
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paternity suitor posted:No it’s not. My point is that valuations are based on continued strong earnings which are growing. And rates are low so higher multiples are justified. But half this thread is convinced we’re in a bubble despite that. Curious if you have sat down and modeled potential 10yr returns relative to expected growth rates on basically any given tech name? The point you are making is correct in a vacuum, but I'm wondering how many subscribers you think NFLX can get (etc etc)? AAPL is the closest thing to reasonable though even it is starting to get a little elevated. Yes, there is wiggle room in valuations and it is even subjective to some extent, but tech is really really expensive right now unless you really think this stuff is going to grow at 30% a year (i.e. there's not going to be new entrants upending things) for the next 10 years- and even if you do think that can happen, it's basically already priced in.
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Nov 3, 2017 19:14
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Holy moley qcom avgo. Trump making mergers great again.
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Nov 3, 2017 19:50
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fougera posted:Bermuda is absurdly expensive, but a nice place to visit More of a reference to their 0% corporate tax rate and their infamy for being a tax haven for foreign countries with profits off of IP.
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Nov 3, 2017 19:53
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LLCoolJD posted:
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Nov 3, 2017 20:13
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Josh Lyman posted:Big mergers and acquisitions generally don't work and are the sign of desperate management. Or empire building management too entrenched to be kicked out by their shareholders. End the tyranny of Management over Capital!
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Nov 3, 2017 22:43
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I used to live/work there. It's actually cheaper than living in NYC and clearing US immigration/customs in Bermuda is pretty convenient.
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Nov 4, 2017 00:07
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https://twitter.com/BagholderQuotes/status/926073791251443713 lmao. bio/pharma BagHolders Classics  https://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=TEVA
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Nov 4, 2017 02:09
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greasyhands posted:Curious if you have sat down and modeled potential 10yr returns relative to expected growth rates on basically any given tech name? The point you are making is correct in a vacuum, but I'm wondering how many subscribers you think NFLX can get (etc etc)? AAPL is the closest thing to reasonable though even it is starting to get a little elevated. Yes, there is wiggle room in valuations and it is even subjective to some extent, but tech is really really expensive right now unless you really think this stuff is going to grow at 30% a year (i.e. there's not going to be new entrants upending things) for the next 10 years- and even if you do think that can happen, it's basically already priced in. Hello no I didn’t do that, I have a day job and I’m otherwise invested. I don’t really care about Netflix, they’re 10% of the market cap of Apple. I’m concerned with the broader market unless I’m invested in a particular company, and I’m not invested in anything that’s discussed in this thread. If it’s priced in, we’re not in a bubble. There’s a huge difference between being in a bubble, and the market having no upside. I am arguing that it’s more or less fairly valued. Maybe it drops 10% maybe it pops 10%. Neither is a bubble. If poo poo stays the same but valued to up 50% we’re in a bubble.
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Nov 4, 2017 05:36
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IV is looking relatively low on SNAP for earnings. Might have to light some money on fire.
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Nov 5, 2017 20:19
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Buy RGR I guess god bless 
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Nov 6, 2017 08:29
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Buy RGR and SWHC after every mass shooting and Dem election victory.
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Nov 6, 2017 08:33
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It's a pretty solid day for  ... Lot of deals closing ...
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Nov 6, 2017 16:30
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Yeah, I finally bought some WEED-COBALT stocks last week and my WEED's up ~11% today.
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Nov 6, 2017 16:36
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lol @ Sprint. Real glad I didn't go work there and tie my bonus to them keeping their stock at $10/share.
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Nov 6, 2017 17:05
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Not me, option supremecy 
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Nov 6, 2017 17:17
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I am not an options guy. Does that mean you spent over $100,000 on options?
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Nov 6, 2017 17:38
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Risky Bisquick posted:Not me, option supremecy See, it's crazy poo poo like this that makes wish I could trade options, as well as glad that I'm not allowed. Buying a foreign bank penny stock is one thing, but there's just too much craziness with options for me.
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Nov 6, 2017 18:11
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Risky Bisquick posted:Not me, option supremecy You have almost 800K in your TFSA? Wow, well done.
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Nov 6, 2017 18:44
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since tesla was recently discussed in this thread, this article might of interesthttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/03/ford-bmw-vw-daimler-building-electric-charging-network-twice-the-power-of-teslas.html posted:Are electric cars about to go long distance? looks like maybe the big car manufacturers might be gearing up to give tesla some serious competition
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Nov 6, 2017 20:42
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$WEED 50% in a week and going  You all need to stop buying it and start selling it pronto so I can get back in.
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Nov 6, 2017 21:14
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There’s no such thing as getting low on weed.
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Nov 6, 2017 21:18
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DNK posted:There’s no such thing as getting low on weed.
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Nov 6, 2017 21:29
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Ugh fine I'll get in on $WEED or should I say TMWJF. Gonna burn me like HMNY I bet.
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Nov 6, 2017 21:38
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Getting burned out on WEED just comes with the territory.
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Nov 6, 2017 23:03
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