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I think Ryan makes good strategic moves and questionable social moves but he’s still okay. Cole and Jessica get on my nerves.
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Nov 3, 2017 06:16
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STAC Goat posted:I totally agree with everyone that they made the smart strategic move. Ali's a bigger threat than JP because he ain't gonna win every Immunity challenge and they basically spent an episode saying "he's a nice enough guy but he has no strategic game." And for Ryan he burned Ali bad enough that it makes sense to want her gone pre merge/jury. But much like last week its HOW he and Chrissy handled things that leaves such a bad taste in my mouth. They're snakes and they seem to really get a kick out of "the game" and all the backstabby and scheming involved. Which is totally fine and its "just a game", but when you lose yourself in it you tend to get dirty. That's two weeks in a row Ryan and Chrissy have successfully controlled the vote but also got bloody in doing so. I think they're effective at it and could go far, but if that pattern keeps up its going to be ugly and could eventually bit them. To add to that, here's a bit about the Ali/Chrissy relationship: quote:Elliott: Chrissy and I ended up bonding. You saw, her hair was braided all the time. (Laughs) That night after the deal with Ryan, I was broken. I didn’t sleep, I laid there and stared at the fire. The next morning I went looking for an idol. I could already see them stalking me in the woods. And when I came back to camp, it was just me and Chrissy and she said, “I don’t think you should feel like you’re on the outs.” So, I was trying to sell myself at that point. “I made a mistake, I was stupid. And I’m still useful. I have a great social game and can bring in people you need.” So, we ended up bonding. Even during the pizza we shared things about our family and the game. At one point…and obviously now…she’d lied so well that I thought I might’ve squeezed back in there. But, there was one thing…and I know this is a game…but would someone lie about that? I mean, it's legit gameplay, but... there's a bit of a bad juju about how they're playing it. There have been plenty of charismatic gamebots that didn't have the amount of arrogance/lying that they're exhibiting. quote:Ryan seems to be of the school that "social game" means "working" with everyone and saying "yes" to everyone but that kind of just sets you up for the situation he was in with Ali. JP may not have any real strategy but he actually seems like a perfectly pleasant and liked guy. Like, him telling them how he likes to take a girl on a bonfire date may not have been exciting but it was perfectly pleasant and then Ryan's all "bang them in the back of a truck, right? hehehe". At some point JP might just be the guy people like and trust while Ryan is... a weasel. JP's kinda like the Ken of this season. Seems like a perfectly nice guy and great challenge person, just... nowhere in the strategy department. Difference is that in MvG Ken at least seemed like he had a chance of winning but was just in the wrong season. Meanwhile Ryan's more like Zeke but worse in social situations.
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Nov 3, 2017 06:24
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Ryan makes for entertaining television so I like him.Reince Penis posted:The best part was when JP was describing his perfect date, bonfire on the beach look at stars etc. See? Also I'm definitely interested to see how alliances shake out at the merge. Devon will definitely join up with Ryan and Chrissy, but I think that's the only thing I'm positive about.
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Nov 3, 2017 14:48
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I'm thinking the full Heroes/Hustlers alliance is almost a lock. Ryan's preswap bestie was Devon. Devon is now very tight with Ashley, who was also on original tribes with Chrissy. Chrissy's preswap bestie was Ben. Ben now seems somewhat close with Lauren, who was also on original tribes with Ryan. Ashley was showmancing with JP, and Chrissy now has JP firmly in tow. Those people are all interconnected with each other, and not really with anyone else. (Except maybe Mike was coming in with Ben and Lauren preswap.) Anyway, it's 7-5 at least. The fun part is that the 5 has both idols that are in the game right now.
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Nov 3, 2017 15:50
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I can see Mike and Desi ditching the rest of the Heroes too. Who knows about Mike's idol? Is it Jessica?
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Nov 3, 2017 15:54
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Yep, Jessica. As far as the vote goes (might as well just scheme out the whole episode at this point) I think they may want to take out Joe as Ashley will be gushing about how dangerous he is, but if they're smart they'll have idol concerns. Ben should go to bat for Mike so he could be safe. They could do a kind of random Desi vote to try to miss the idols, and they could still do Joe, but I think they probably go for Cole. Could be a little interesting as Jessica knows Mike has the idol and might want him to use it, but knocking a 7-5 edge down to 6-5 doesn't quite flip the game, although it comes close... Anyway, if they do play an idol correctly, they might just go for a typical merge target like Devon or Ben (they'll probably look past JP).
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Nov 3, 2017 15:56
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Fast Luck posted:I'm thinking the full Heroes/Hustlers alliance is almost a lock. Ryan's preswap bestie was Devon. Devon is now very tight with Ashley, who was also on original tribes with Chrissy. Chrissy's preswap bestie was Ben. Ben now seems somewhat close with Lauren, who was also on original tribes with Ryan. Ashley was showmancing with JP, and Chrissy now has JP firmly in tow. Those people are all interconnected with each other, and not really with anyone else. (Except maybe Mike was coming in with Ben and Lauren preswap.) Anyway, it's 7-5 at least. The fun part is that the 5 has both idols that are in the game right now. I feel like I need a full Pepe Silva chart to make sense of all of these possibilities lol I had forgotten about Ashley and JP so that definitely seems like a really solid five.
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Nov 3, 2017 16:16
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Yeah, its just all very convoluted and web like. That's the good thing about these 3 tribes-swap scenarios. It means there's a ton of relationships and none of them had more than a few days and 1 or 2 tribals to solidify. It makes everything very fluid. Like, we default to assuming Ryan/Devon and Ashley/JP will link up again. But they weren't together that long and its entirely possible Devon feels a tighter bond with Ashley and Ryan feels a tighter bond with Chrissy since they've gone through tough tribals together. Its tough to predict how that all plays out if like Ryan and Chrissy still want to take out JP. Odds are they're all look for an easy target right out the gate, and Joe definitely stands out for that along with JP and Cole. Joe's got that idol to make things interesting (and annoying) and voting out Cole would be burning Jessica, probably. I could see Ryan and Chrissy pushing hard to get out JP if he loses the immunity challenge and saying "we have to do it now before he can dominate." But as said they might also link up as a natural five. It all looks very open.
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Nov 3, 2017 23:16
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Ryan/Chrissy would be more likely to aim at Cole or Joe rather than JP since they've actually worked with JP and can attest to how easy he is to manipulate. The 'easiest' vote would probably be Jessica.
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Nov 4, 2017 02:59
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I would guess Ryan-Devon-Chrissy-Ashley-JP is about a sure lock for an alliance. Kinda makes too much sense not to be. Ben and Lauren are the wildcards. Could easily see them being roped in with that 5 by default, but could also see them sticking with the healers. They know that Cole and Jessica are going to be easy targets because of their showmance, and could use that to solidify with Mike, Joe and Desi within the alliance of 7, with an end goal of a Mike-Ben-Lauren final 3. Would make some sense because that Hustlers-Heroes group will be tougher competition. I kind of think they'll stick with the aforementioned 5 though because Chrissy (totally gonna win) and Ryan (the most Oedipal goat of all time) are getting an assload of screentime. On a Ryan note, I get the criticism, but his moves make more sense when you consider the post-merge assortment of players. Chrissy and JP will be instrumental in bringing in Ben and Ashley (can't assume that Ryan knows that Devon and Ashley are tight AF), so voting out one of them would have hurt the likelihood of a post-merge Hustlers-Heroes alliance. Ali's usefulness was tied to supposedly being able to bring in Lauren but I'm not convinced that would have been an automatic get. Also, JP will be a mindless foot soldier/extra vote/perfect shield to the end, so there's no real incentive for Chrissy to get on board with voting him out. So yeah, Ryan went about it like an rear end in a top hat, but it was the right move. Still think Chrissy takes him to the cleaners though so he's gonna need to find a way to get her out sooner than later. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Nov 4, 2017 |
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Nov 4, 2017 12:56
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Nobody disagrees that Ali was the right choice, but Ryan showed that he didn't hold up well under interrogation in that episode, and his self-proclaimed social game is a lot weaker than he thinks it is. That kind of 'give false hope and then stab them' attitude is what got Albert zero votes to win in South Pacific.
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Nov 4, 2017 13:15
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Vernacular posted:Chrissy (totally gonna win) and Ryan (the most Oedipal goat of all time) are getting an assload of screentime. They are both goats with awful social games. I'd vote for a Mark the Chicken win over them. Or literally anybody else in this cast. They need to get their heads out of their asses to be votable for the win, and I don't see that happening.
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Nov 4, 2017 19:27
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All of that is a bit strong. I don’t think either is a goat. But it’s all moot anyway because Ben is winning.
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Nov 4, 2017 19:38
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I could see Chrissy winning if it ends up in a Chrissy/Ryan/Goat F3 where the goat is someone with no gameplay on their resume and low social skills. Someone like JP, maybe. Ryan's got no chance in hell though.
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Nov 4, 2017 19:53
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Ryan isn't a goat because the only person he truly pissed off isn't on the jury. He is still very much in play to win
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Nov 4, 2017 19:57
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blue squares posted:Ryan isn't a goat because the only person he truly pissed off isn't on the jury. He is still very much in play to win That's technically true, but I don't think he's going to suddenly shift his gameplay style just because there's a jury now. He's got a consistently bad track record. His only real upside is his relationship with Devon. And yeah I might have been a bit strong on Chrissy there, but as much as I dislike her I really, truly don't think she can win, especially considering she's working with Ben. He's not a stupid guy so I think he'll catch onto her, and he has plenty of allegiance options.
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Nov 4, 2017 20:12
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I definitely think its too early to declare anyone a goat but, yeah, if they keep playing they way they have so far it seems likely Ryan and Chrissy will burn more people besides Ali and Roarke. Yes, theyre prejurors so they don't really matter in the end game but theyre going to have to play better socially than they have so far or it seems likely they won't be the last. And it seems like a bad sign that their response to burning Ali with the Roarke blindside was to blame Ali and burn her even more harshly.
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Nov 4, 2017 21:14
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I hope Mike gets to hug more people at the merge and that the camera is able to capture his eyebrows raising mid-hug again
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Nov 5, 2017 15:24
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I agree that Ryan and Chrissy will have trouble winning based on how they played the past few days. I think they're both pretty smart and have a good understanding of the game, but they're lacking a certain finesse in how they're taking people out. The fact that Roark and Ali are pre-jurors is irrelevant-- they very easily could have won that last Immunity, meaning Ali would have been at merge and on the jury fully poisoned against both of them all for a completely avoidable reason. Good on Ryan and Chrissy for leaving no witnesses, but bad on them for creating a witness that very nearly almost survived long enough to sink their game. I think Ben and Lauren are set up pretty well going into the merge with their connection to the Heroes (via Ben), the Hustlers (via Lauren), and now the Healers (via Mike). While they are probably frontrunners right now, I feel like everyone is sleeping on Ashley. Her confessionals have indicated she has a pretty good understanding of the game and her aggressive courting of Devon and now Desi has been impressive. Also when the time comes to break up the JP/Ashley duo, now that it's post-merge they'll probably come for JP over Ashley.
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Nov 5, 2017 19:45
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Ryan and Chrissy will be fine going forwards because the only throat they slit no longer has any influence on the game. There won't be any backlash against them because they can spin the Ali vote any way they want. Their actions going further might sink in them into a possible Goat position going forwards but right now they have a clean slate and there will be no repercussions from the pre merge.
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Nov 5, 2017 20:34
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Lone Goat posted:Ryan and Chrissy will be fine going forwards because the only throat they slit no longer has any influence on the game. There won't be any backlash against them because they can spin the Ali vote any way they want. This is fine in theory but ignoring the fact that Ryan is a massive gamebot that's going to overplay the hell out of the merge.
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Nov 5, 2017 20:38
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Rarity posted:This is fine in theory but ignoring the fact that Ryan is a massive gamebot that's going to overplay the hell out of the merge. Oh, probably. But that's more of a final 6-7 boot than an FTC goat.
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Nov 6, 2017 01:26
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The point is he's dead in the water, and moreso than anybody else except for possibly Cole.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:02
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He's really not though, which I think is Lone Goat's point. He isn't carrying any baggage into the merge because Ali is gone, which is why that was the right move. I think what everyone else's point is that his decision to burn Ali the way he did the first time, his reaction to her being upset as being her problem and nothing about how he handled it, and then his decision to burn her again worse just makes it seem like he doesn't really grasp what the "social game" is and is likely to burn more people post merge if he keeps playing this way. But all we can do is wait and see. Ryan's going into the merge in a good position with lots of connections and allies. But that's kind of the problem he had before. Lots of people who wanted to work with him, no sense of how to manage the fallout of choosing one over the other.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:07
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Neither of them seem capable of scrutinizing or acknowledging their errors with Ali so I don't see how they can keep it going. Chrissy isn't as smart as she thinks she is, but she could maybe keep fooling people enough to stay afloat. Ryan can't. And I still think she's have a bitter jury by the end of it.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:08
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I think all things being equal Chrissy can theoretically play the "matron" card while Ryan my fall victim to that "sneaky/gamer/weasel" stereotype. That might buy Chrissy more time in the game than Ryan. But she also seems wholly capable of overplaying and acting arrogant as she did with Roarke. But again, they also clearly both have solid game smarts so if they can pick up some empathy and self evaluation they could do very well. And even if they don't if they can juts maintain bigger targets they could still work their way through the game.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:15
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Chrissy also has more allies - she's linked with Ryan and Ben, probably Ashley, and then from there JP. Ryan has Chrissy and Devon, and that's about it. He also has links to Ashley via Devon, but since he hasn't personally spent time with Ashley and he doesn't seem to gel well at all with JP he's at a slight disadvantage. Honestly, if he could travel back in time six days, consulted with Ali, and then voted out Roark and then JP, he'd be in a really great position, with three smart allies that really trust him (Ali, Chrissy, Devon). But now most of the power is in Chrissy's hands. You could say he has no blood on his hands going into the merge, but given the small pool of players he's had a chance to bond with, taking out one of his biggest allies has hurt his chances quite a bit already. Of course it's still early days yet, and he won't be a target for a while, so he has more than enough time to fix things.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:26
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Ryan has always given me a really greasy vibe and I won't be surprised to see him voted off because of something he offensive he says. Can't back that up, but there's something about him.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:30
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I think Ryan's shown enough social skills that he should theoretically be able to use his tight connections with Devon and Chrissy to strengthen that JP/Ashley connection. Then toss in Ben, Lauren, and maybe Mike and I think Ryan is capable of making that work and turning them into his allies. But Chrissy definitely has a foot ahead of him. Some of that is just Ryan being on bad tribes but both he and Chrissy came into their tribe with one side ally and Ryan let Chrissy be loyal to hers. That probably qualifies as Chrissy outplaying Ryan so far. In general I think Ryan's had a focus on "taking out threats" over "strengthening alliances" and I think that's a flawed early game strategy and could leave him in a situation where he's too isolated to have true power. Didn't David end up in that spot vs Zeke and then Zeke against Andrea? Cutting off your allies early tends to have repercussions even if they're gone. If nothing else, you're losing numbers.
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Nov 6, 2017 03:42
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STAC Goat posted:I think all things being equal Chrissy can theoretically play the "matron" card while Ryan my fall victim to that "sneaky/gamer/weasel" stereotype. That might buy Chrissy more time in the game than Ryan. But she also seems wholly capable of overplaying and acting arrogant as she did with Roarke. The thing with Roarke is interesting. Certainly Chrissy should have tried to connect with Roarke before tribal in an ideal situation, but in the end Chrissy was right that she didn’t need to. Roarke made that comment about how Chrissy should have tried before she needed Roarke, but the actual situation appears to be the reverse. Roarke was the one in danger and needed to have made a connection earlier. That being said, the fact that the edit was way more sympathetic to Roarke may mean that Chrissy is being set up for a hubristic downfall or possibly a villain win.
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Nov 6, 2017 04:05
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Oh, I definitely think Roarke was arrogant and hosed up by just assuming she was the swing vote and playing as if she had the power. They both played it arrogantly, Chrissy just won out. But I don't think that justifies the way she played it. That could have easily gone the other way.
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Nov 6, 2017 04:08
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Quick drive-by post to say that STAC, I love you like I love my luggage, but I'm pretty positive that your opinion here is incorrect. I'd love to elaborate with a keyboard, but alas. I don't want to repeat myself, but I think we're in for some epic post-merge histrionics and failure courtesy of Ryan and Chrissy.
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Nov 6, 2017 05:54
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I think they're probably going to crash and burn too. Ryan before Chrissy. I just think that on paper they're fine right now because they've managed to vote out anyone they've burned so far. If I had to bet I'd say that the two of them will push a big move soon after the merge, they'll succeed but burn someone in doing so, get real big heads and paint big targets on themselves, the burned party will organize a revolt, and then the tribe will unite against the two people who played too big too soon and made themselves threats. Ryan theoretically goes before Chrissy and maybe she can survive awhile behind bigger threats, but if that duo plays like they played the last 2 weeks they're going to expose themselves soon. But also, who knows?
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Nov 6, 2017 06:04
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Yeah, there is no reason to expect Ryan and Chrissy to go down immediately because no one is coming after them or have seen their less-graceful sides. It's just the sloppiness of the Roark vote and the fallout with Ali that makes it hard to see either of them winning. Whether it's due to them making a Big Move that backfires or them burning every member of the jury and losing at Final 3, either way they're in for some trouble at some point. Of the two, I'm more bullish on Chrissy though. They both made mistakes in the past two episodes, but at least Chrissy's mistakes are semi-justified when you realize she was panicked about being voted out and had no prior relationship with Ali to preserve. As pointed out above, Ryan basically snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory by burning Ali so hard and then having to vote her out over JP to clean up the mess.
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Nov 6, 2017 06:19
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Ryan's main potential saving grace is that most contestants seem to assume every 20something nerdy white dude is a Survivor Expert and trusts their gameplay is sound if they make it to the end One day people will learn that is a more threatening type of post-merge player than a buff guy
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Nov 6, 2017 08:15
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Ken and Ozzy were pretty much non-threats in the last two seasons. There hasn't really been a threatening buff guy since Mike Holloway - Joe Anglim, Malcolm and Jay were threats more because of charisma than anything, and Jeremy was definitely not banking on physical ability to win Cambodia. JP is definitely in the Ken/Ozzy category so unless he suddenly becomes a strategic mastermind he's a fairly easy goat.
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Nov 6, 2017 09:38
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What? No. Ken and Ozzy both had interpersonal relationships to speak of, and generally quite poorly (lol Ozzy's Micronesia jury speech, to boot). They were very very different players. Ken DID have a social game. Ozzy had...Ozzy. JP is a blank slate. He really is. There's this editing to-do about his friendship with lifeguard, but other than that, he's not strategic enough to be a threat, and production has done a bang-up job of evening post-merge challenges out such that lunkheads like him don't just automatically win. I actually see JP as a very strong dark horse.
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Nov 6, 2017 10:57
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I want count out JP this early as I won't count out Ryan and Chrissy. He seems likable enough to do well socially and while that could just end in a Ken way there's always the JT comparison or a Fabio type one. If he can be well liked, win immunities and build a resume that say, and not do anything especially stupid then he could always have a chance. It's not like he's really done anything wrong so far. He just doesn't seem to talk game. And I mean, he's been on tribes with people like Ryan, Chrissy, and Alan who were over gaming so who knows? Maybe he'll pull out a move at the right time or just not do anything stupid. It's harder to win that way with modern Survivor but it's not impossible. It all depends on how this jury plays out and who he's sitting next to.
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Nov 6, 2017 12:14
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I guess I meant more in the 'nobody really cares that they're a physical threat'. Ken had four immunity wins and the Legacy Advantage, but even if he didn't have any of them he was in no danger of being voted out since everyone saw him as a goat. The only reason someone would have voted him out post-merge would be to weaken David. Similarly, right now other than depriving someone of an immunity win, I can't see people going, 'oh no JP won immunity now we can't vote him out'. It can change, but right now JP isn't a threat to win at all, so nobody is going to go after him. He'd either get ousted to weaken an alliance, or like Abi from Cambodia where he's such an attractive goat that people are afraid that he'd be taken by another person over them. Of course we're not even halfway through the cast, so I'm prepared to eat my words.
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Nov 6, 2017 15:33
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| # ? Jun 2, 2024 12:28 |
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I missed the last few seasons of Survivor thanks to Playstation Vue not carrying CBS in my area for a while, but they finally carry it, and I'm back in. Not really much to say about this season so far as it's been a little dull, but then again most seasons are a little dull until the merge. That said. I'm rewatching Cook Islands, and god drat, Candice is the very epitome of white privilege. Each time she was sent to Exile Island, I giggled with glee.
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Nov 6, 2017 16:41
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