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~*Provisional Ballot Chat*~ https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/928354863775453190 Looks like there are 50 in the race where the Republican is up by 12 votes. Gonna take a while to sort it out. It's not even clear how many are in HD94.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:21
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axeil posted:~*Provisional Ballot Chat*~ IIRC provisional ballots lean fairly Democratic (because they're the people who fell afoul of the ID laws meant to harm Democratic voters) so this is a good sign, but literally no matter how this ends up it's going to come down to a difference of a handful of votes. Which is always nice to have around for those people in your life who are dead set on believing that a single vote doesn't matter.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:32
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Quorum posted:IIRC provisional ballots lean fairly Democratic (because they're the people who fell afoul of the ID laws meant to harm Democratic voters) so this is a good sign, but literally no matter how this ends up it's going to come down to a difference of a handful of votes. Which is always nice to have around for those people in your life who are dead set on believing that a single vote doesn't matter. Yep. And this isn't even getting into what a recount would mean and I expect all 5 of these really close seats are going to go to recount. Additional background: https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/928359306843615232 Provisional ballots usually don't get counted so they're likely only to swing things if it's really close.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:34
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Quorum posted:IIRC provisional ballots lean fairly Democratic (because they're the people who fell afoul of the ID laws meant to harm Democratic voters) so this is a good sign, but literally no matter how this ends up it's going to come down to a difference of a handful of votes. Which is always nice to have around for those people in your life who are dead set on believing that a single vote doesn't matter. Vote in every election and for every democratic candidate down ballot. Period.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:35
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mcmagic posted:Vote in every election and for every democratic candidate down ballot. Period. *As long as it's not David Clarke.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:42
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This thread ain't quite done, since those handful of delegate races are still up in the air, but I want to thank everyone for coming along for the ride, and for busting y'all's asses both on the pavement and on the phones. Goon participation in this one was unreal and it definitely contributed to shifting the needle this year. In 2005, Virginia and New Jersey witnessed then-enormous (now dwarfed  ) Democratic gains, foreshadowing the anti-Bush backlash of 2006. I started the thread in those grim few weeks before Inauguration Day, before we really knew exactly what shape this garbage fire was going to take, partially as a way to deal with the traumatic haze of 2016. Last night, sitting among Democratic pavement-pounders at the Dem bar in my neighborhood, that haze lifted, just a bit. America's loving pissed, y'all, and if what we accomplished in New Jersey, Virginia, and around the country is any guide, 2018 is on track to blow 2006 out of the water. And for anyone who's like me and deals with stress by rationalizing and getting deep into wonky minutia, that means a wealth of polls to obsess over and a mountain of stupid state and local governmental foibles to freak out about.For now, though, here it is, your Moment of Zen: "CNN posted:At the Water’s End Brewery in Lake Ridge, a crowd of supporters and news cameras awaited Roem as she drove in for a final stop in what became a victory tour of Prince William County Democratic parties.
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Nov 8, 2017 23:17
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Here's some good poo poo https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/928134374519988225
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Nov 8, 2017 23:36
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theflyingorc posted:Well, the really young guy who won on gun control I'm pretty sure literally won't be old enough to be eligible lol REALLY hard though.
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Nov 8, 2017 23:42
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TheScott2K posted:Here's some good poo poo Did Fox even show the concession? Was there a concession?
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Nov 9, 2017 00:42
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Zwabu posted:Did Fox even show the concession? Was there a concession? There was a phone call to Northam. That's it.
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Nov 9, 2017 00:44
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Zwabu posted:Did Fox even show the concession? Was there a concession? Somebody posted earlier in either this thread or the Trump thread that Hannity covered it. For 6 seconds.
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Nov 9, 2017 00:49
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Holy poo poo dat ratio tho https://twitter.com/andrewtwalk/status/928079632464785408
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Nov 9, 2017 08:18
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Party Plane Jones posted:Somebody posted earlier in either this thread or the Trump thread that Hannity covered it. It was by the way [fakes smile] not a state Donald Trump won.
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Nov 9, 2017 09:00
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Ragnar34 posted:Do we have any interesting dem candidates yet? Is Roem eligible? How about that Sikh guy, he seems cool. Let's have a low drama infrastructure-focused president. The 2024 ad campaign writes itself. You would if folks bothered to pay any loving attention to the west coast.
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Nov 9, 2017 15:04
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Solkanar512 posted:You would if folks bothered to pay any loving attention to the west coast. I'm down for any plan that gets Diane Feinstein out of California, including this one.
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Nov 9, 2017 15:42
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SHOAH NUFF posted:Charlottesville VA had a turbaned Sikh mayor a few years ago! It’s roughly the same size as Hoboken
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Nov 9, 2017 16:13
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Petr posted:Holy poo poo dat ratio tho The Bible also has surprisingly little to say about transgender people, given that the concept hasn't existed most places (I know there's a few exceptions) before the last century.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:26
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https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/928644416281202690 Vote counts starting to shift.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:28
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https://pilotonline.com/news/govern...a4367ec96d.htmlThe Virginia Pilot posted:
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Nov 9, 2017 16:32
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It is realistically unlikely that 19 provisional ballots will contain 13 valid Democratic votes, since a lot of those are people without valid ID who now need to go to the registrar and present said ID after the fact. Usually something like 15-25% of provisionals get counted. But I feel confident all 5 of the close races are getting a recount anyway so WHO KNOWS RIDE OR DIE 
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Nov 9, 2017 16:40
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Quorum posted:It is realistically unlikely that 19 provisional ballots will contain 13 valid Democratic votes, since a lot of those are people without valid ID who now need to go to the registrar and present said ID after the fact. Usually something like 15-25% of provisionals get counted. But I feel confident all 5 of the close races are getting a recount anyway so WHO KNOWS RIDE OR DIE Some provisionals are getting counted right now! https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/928648804664074240 I've got hope, because at this point there's nothing I can do except remind everyone in the state of VA if you voted provisionally to get your rear end down to the courthouse/registrar and show your ID.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:43
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AL-SEN is getting uh...unpleasant https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/928682153063452672
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Nov 9, 2017 19:54
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/928751289365876736
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Nov 9, 2017 23:57
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Virginia House of Delegates: The Democrat who lost by 124 has decided not to request a recount. So that takes the number of pending races that may change control from 4 to 3.
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Nov 10, 2017 13:29
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Stolen from Corey Robin, a poli-sci professor at CUNY, author of "The Reactionary Mind" There's a quickly emerging analysis that better-educated, moderate voters in the suburbs of Virginia plus heightened turnout in the cities are what gave the Democrats their victory Tuesday. This analysis fits with the vision of the future that the Clinton wing of the party likes to promote. In actual fact, the turnout for Northam in those precincts was either consistent with the turnout for Clinton in 2016 or dropped; where Northam did do better was in rural counties. And why was that? Mostly b/c of the drop-off in Trump's base of white, rural voters. They didn't turn out. Because they're not that jazzed up, despite Gillespie's attempt to be Trump. https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2017/11/8/16625578/rural-whites-no-show-virginia
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Nov 10, 2017 14:02
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poopinmymouth posted:Stolen from Corey Robin, a poli-sci professor at CUNY, author of "The Reactionary Mind" I, for one, am shocked that it once again turns out that mobilizing your base is how you win.
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Nov 10, 2017 14:08
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Cerebral Bore posted:I, for one, am shocked that it once again turns out that mobilizing your base is how you win. Well in this case it sounds like depressed rural turnout is what led to the wins.
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Nov 10, 2017 14:24
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nachos posted:Well in this case it sounds like depressed rural turnout is what led to the wins. As in the GOP not managing to sufficiently mobilize their base.
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Nov 10, 2017 14:35
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nachos posted:Well in this case it sounds like depressed rural turnout is what led to the wins. I think the real lesson is how anemic centrists are, and it's only from a historically depressed R base that it seems like something new is happening. If the next election sees a more "sane" traditional republican, it's unlikely the VA results will be repeated. There is a micro lesson about voter turnout, but imo the macro lesson is that the DNC message isn't nearly inspirational enough except for unique and likely unrepeatable context of a Trump dumpster fire depressing R turnout.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:12
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That analysis doesn’t bear out of the data at all. Turnout was up in the north and down in the south. Youth turnout was up by an order of magnitude. That’s all in this thread. Sheesh.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:17
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Your Boy Fancy posted:That analysis doesn’t bear out of the data at all. Turnout was up in the north and down in the south. Youth turnout was up by an order of magnitude. That’s all in this thread. Sheesh. Can't let things like facts and data get in the way of pushing a narrative. First of all it's not right to compare turnout here with the turnout of a Presidential election. You have to go to the 2013 for an apples to apples comparison. GOP turnout was slightly down and Dem turnout was WAY up. The Dems won the 2013 gubernatorial race by less than 3 points. This time it was by 9. That doesn't happen just because Republicans didn't turnout quite as much. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 15:20
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Actually, The DNC did a pretty interesting thing in Virginia-- they poured a bunch of money into the races, but earmarked all of it for organizing and direct voter outreach, none for TV ads (which generally came straight from the campaigns or PACs). Just from a campaign tactics standpoint it worked well in that it was under the radar but effective, which meant it didn't raise the specter of the evil national Democratic party coming in from out of state, something that did happen with Ossof.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:52
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I gave money to Doug Jones. I’ve spent money on dumber things.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:53
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I was pretty brusque with the Rob Bell canvasser who came to my door, but only because my hands were covered in barbecue and barbecue marinade. It must've looked like I was being all, "I'm sorry, I don't vote for Republican candidates under any circumstances, and I need to get back to disposing of this body."
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Nov 10, 2017 16:00
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Halloween Jack posted:I was pretty brusque with the Rob Bell canvasser who came to my door, but only because my hands were covered in barbecue and barbecue marinade. It must've looked like I was being all, "I'm sorry, I don't vote for Republican candidates under any circumstances, and I need to get back to disposing of this body." "You remind me of the last canvasser who came here...I didn't like him, either."
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Nov 10, 2017 16:03
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quote:The analysis above suggests that Democrats did well because white, conservative, rural Republicans, — those who gave Trump his victory last year — simply didn’t show up this time. This is objectively wrong. Even if rural Trump voters showed up the same relative to 2016, Northam still would have won because Clinton won in 2016 in VA. Nor does the fall identified really impact the House of Delegate races because the Dems picked up seats in districts Clinton had won.
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Nov 10, 2017 16:04
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I wish people would actually look at the 2010 Maine Gov race before deciding it wasn't the Dem's fault we got LePage. They ran a tired old person who didn't campaign and was the definition of an insider (first elected in 1974) with no actual plan or appeal. I'm pretty sure 18% is the min A Sleepy Lobster (D) would get in a state wide election. The ME Dems have also fought any sort of ranked choice voting even though it has broad popular support, because of course they they have. The Maine Democratic Party is generally worthless.
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Nov 10, 2017 17:11
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Cerebral Bore posted:I, for one, am shocked that it once again turns out that mobilizing your base is how you win. poopinmymouth posted:I think the real lesson is how anemic centrists are, and it's only from a historically depressed R base that it seems like something new is happening. If the next election sees a more "sane" traditional republican, it's unlikely the VA results will be repeated. Your Boy Fancy posted:That analysis doesn’t bear out of the data at all. Turnout was up in the north and down in the south. Youth turnout was up by an order of magnitude. That’s all in this thread. Sheesh. if you look at corbyn in britain, it turns out the way to supercharge turnout from an electorate of highly educated millenial minorities is to articulate a full-throated, angry left wing message that attacks hypocritcal centrists as much as conservatives icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 17:14
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icantfindaname posted:yes, if you look at corbyn in britain, it turns out the way to supercharge turnout from an electorate of highly educated millenial minorities is to articulate a full-throated, angry left wing message that attacks hypocritcal centrists as much as conservatives Here's the thing, though-- in Virginia, at least, you a mix of candidates, including a centrist-style but left-of-center gubernatorial candidate who definitely was no Corbyn, a much more full-throated progressive LG candidate, and a nice sprinkling of people between "soccer mom" and "actual DemSoc" at the delegate level. And Northam outperformed the other statewide guys. So maybe the lesson here is that the Most Left guy doesn't necessarily need to win as long as there's an open conversation in the primary and there's a diversity of views reflected on the ballot. I don't know!
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Nov 10, 2017 17:17
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Quorum posted:Here's the thing, though-- in Virginia, at least, you a mix of candidates, including a centrist-style but left-of-center gubernatorial candidate who definitely was no Corbyn, a much more full-throated progressive LG candidate, and a nice sprinkling of people between "soccer mom" and "actual DemSoc" at the delegate level. And Northam outperformed the other statewide guys. So maybe the lesson here is that the Most Left guy doesn't necessarily need to win as long as there's an open conversation in the primary and there's a diversity of views reflected on the ballot. I don't know! He outperformed them by a small amount, which is to be expected. Still, maybe there's another reason for that besides some superior purely political appeal, which ought to be obvious if you take a quick look at Northam and then Fairfax. Besides that, the takeaway ought to be that you don't need to run some empty suit, because the more leftish guy still woulda won (and maybe even done better on account of not deciding that the campaign needs a little more racism).
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Nov 10, 2017 19:04
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