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As Your Boy Fancy says (and by the way GREAT loving JOB on the election), the data solidly show that both things were true, Dem stronghold turnout was much higher, and GOP stronghold turnout was generally lower. I was pretty sure that the increased Dem turnout was a bigger factor than the decreased GOP turnout.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:13
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Zwabu posted:As Your Boy Fancy says (and by the way GREAT loving JOB on the election), the data solidly show that both things were true, Dem stronghold turnout was much higher, and GOP stronghold turnout was generally lower. I was pretty sure that the increased Dem turnout was a bigger factor than the decreased GOP turnout. Someone on election night, I forget who, said the Dems need to run more: Women Minorities Centrists Leftists Actual Socialists Gun Control Advocates Transgender people i.e., the results of the election basically just said that everyone won so it's hard to really tell what was best. Run lots of candidates, have competitive primaries, support the primary winner like Perriello did and you should see success.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:18
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Zwabu posted:As Your Boy Fancy says (and by the way GREAT loving JOB on the election), the data solidly show that both things were true, Dem stronghold turnout was much higher, and GOP stronghold turnout was generally lower. I was pretty sure that the increased Dem turnout was a bigger factor than the decreased GOP turnout. It absolutely was. And it's a great sign that such a meh candidate who spent weeks shooting himself in the foot could still turn out the base and win in a blowout in a purple state. That bodes extremely well for Dems in 2018. Especially since if Northam was a better candidate Im sure a double digit win would have been in the cards.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:19
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:It absolutely was. Yeah. This was my take on the results too (not a Virginian). Not "well based on this win blah centrism is clearly the way to go" but "despite meh candidate running kind of a shite campaign/message people are SO loving PISSED AT TRUMP that they will stand for hours in cold rain to vote against him by proxy in lieu of being able to punch him in the face". And every imaginable type of candidate was running in those legislature races. This was the significance of the result. Not Gov wins in VA and NJ. The fact that polls were outperformed and a sentiment shift existed that flooded over the gerrymander levee. The numbers from the earlier special elections were also consistent with this, to be fair, but it is quite frustrating to not win any of those. Tuesday's results were the first time that I can see that a wave that retakes the House can really happen. We've seen the polling. But the real test was "will people drag their rear end to the polls to VOTE because of the stuff they are mad and protesting about?" The answer appears to be yes. Zwabu fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 19:46
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This is why the DSA needs to become a state-within-a-state in the Democratic Party, with its own loyal base of voters that it won't neglect like the Democratic Party establishment I look forward to furious, red-faced op-ed writers screaming about Trotskyist entryism
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Nov 10, 2017 19:48
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https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/929053496195801088 That's a hell of a swing in a day. quote:We also asked voters if, given the option, they would vote for Moore, Jones, or write in current Republican Senator Luther Strange. With this added option, Moore trails Jones narrowly, 41.3% to 43.6%, with Strange getting 12.3% as a write-in. Republican voters prefer Moore in this scenario, but splinter: 63% back the Republican candidate, 15.7% back Jones, and 17.7% opt to write in Strange. 16% of Republicans are voting for Jones, even if given the option of writing in Strange.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:51
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The lesson to learn here is that superior organization on the ground and running everywhere you can wins, as opposed to the dumbass strategy of only even trying when you're already sure of victory that the dems have been following so far.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:57
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I've read enough 538 to not trust a single poll result but that's super promising. If democrats get a pickup in an unwinnable state like Alabama, the path to 51 in 2018 doesn't require going after any impossible races, just difficult ones
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Nov 10, 2017 19:58
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Cerebral Bore posted:The lesson to learn here is that superior organization on the ground and running everywhere you can wins, as opposed to the dumbass strategy of only even trying when you're already sure of victory that the dems have been following so far. Agreed. You can’t win if you don’t show up.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:58
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Were there any Democrats running in deep Trump country that managed to boost the Democratic Ticket's margins there? That could be decisive in the senate and statewide races next year, even if those contested Safe R house seats themselves don't flip.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:00
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The thing with Strange is that while he isn't a pedo himself he is still wrapped up in the former governor's sex scandal, who appointed him as Senator right before he resigned. There was a lot of talk that as AG, Strange went easy on the investigation into the governor in hopes of getting the appointment. Neither choice is all that great. btw look up Robert Bentley if you want to read about a weird sex scandal Badger of Basra fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 20:00
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Cerebral Bore posted:The lesson to learn here is that superior organization on the ground and running everywhere you can wins, as opposed to the dumbass strategy of only even trying when you're already sure of victory that the dems have been following so far. Yep. The lesson of 2006 was "run everywhere and don't be afraid". It's super frustrating that lesson seemed to be lost from 2010 onwards.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:07
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cheetah7071 posted:I've read enough 538 to not trust a single poll result but that's super promising. If democrats get a pickup in an unwinnable state like Alabama, the path to 51 in 2018 doesn't require going after any impossible races, just difficult ones If it makes you feel better there was another tied poll three weeks ago, from Fox (whose polling is actually really respectable). When none of the candidates were known pedophiles. This race is absolutely winnable. It might not be won, but it's winnable.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:10
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The attitude to take is to consider every single race winnable, even if it isn't. If nothing else we've seen that it boosts the upticket and lays a foundation that you can build on in the future.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:27
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I do worry about the ideological problems that followed 2006 from too many blue dogs. I hope that might have gotten better since the party in general has moved to the left.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:28
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Badger of Basra posted:I do worry about the ideological problems that followed 2006 from too many blue dogs. I hope that might have gotten better since the party in general has moved to the left. Blue dogs were the problem of the day because they were what was keeping the Democrats from winning for all time forever because we were going to obviously be winning forever. Now that things are more dire I'd happily take a bunch of blue dogs, thank you very much.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:30
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Grammarchist posted:Were there any Democrats running in deep Trump country that managed to boost the Democratic Ticket's margins there? That could be decisive in the senate and statewide races next year, even if those contested Safe R house seats themselves don't flip. John Ossoff performed much better in Georgia than any other candidate in recent memory in his district. Unfortunately, it took a lot of money that arguably could have been better used elsewhere.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:30
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Makes absolutely no sense running blue dogs anymore when you have transgender death metal artists and open socialists winning election in red districts in Virginia.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:31
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Brony Car posted:John Ossoff performed much better in Georgia than any other candidate in recent memory in his district. Unfortunately, it took a lot of money that arguably could have been better used elsewhere. And I think the money spent got to the point where it did more harm than good by nationalizing the race.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:32
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theflyingorc posted:Now that things are more dire I'd happily take a bunch of blue dogs, thank you very much. Jesus Christ why would you want the Blue Dogs back? You just damning us to repeat the exact same cycle again and again and again.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:34
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Cerebral Bore posted:Makes absolutely no sense running blue dogs anymore when you have transgender death metal artists and open socialists winning election in red districts in Virginia. Almost all or all of the people who won Delegate races ran in districts Clinton won. We're seven years into a gerrymander with a ten year expiration date, it's getting long in the tooth and demographic shift in Nova has been particularly eye popping. There were more forces going on here than districts operating as their partisan lean dictates (there was a lot of anti incumbent rage and especially anti Trump rage) but I don't know that I'd characterize this as "Democrats blow out deep red districts." Maybe "Dem wave wipes out Republican coast." Quorum fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 20:35
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Brony Car posted:John Ossoff performed much better in Georgia than any other candidate in recent memory in his district. Unfortunately, it took a lot of money that arguably could have been better used elsewhere. Ossoff performed slightly better than a dude who didn't even campaign in 2016. The only reason it was close was because the GOP candidate got far less votes than the guy who was running in 2016. So basically the dems blew a cool couple of tens of millions for nothing.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:37
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Cerebral Bore posted:Makes absolutely no sense running blue dogs anymore when you have transgender death metal artists and open socialists winning election in red districts in Virginia. Those “red” districts in Virginia are as deep Red as you might find in places like MIssissippi or Alabama. There is a place for the Blue Dog, but they shouldn’t be running the party.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:40
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Incidentally, a lot of these delegate races were characterized by decently contested primaries, and whether the person who came out was Danica loving Roem or a moderate Dem school teacher in Henrico County, you generally saw a few commonalities: they all stuck to local issues like schools and transportation, they all hit healthcare and a fair economy pretty hard, and they all buoyed the top of the ticket by a pretty substantial margin just by existing and doing their own outreach on top of the Statewide race. Point is, I'm not sure conversations about "who we should run" are helpful, for one thing because there's no single "we" that decides who to run, and for another because there are so many other factors that go into a victory like this one.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:47
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Cerebral Bore posted:Makes absolutely no sense running blue dogs anymore when you have transgender death metal artists and open socialists winning election in red districts in Virginia. I'm saying let them run if they want, not focus on them, don't make it weird Support whoever wins the primary
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Nov 10, 2017 20:47
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Cerebral Bore posted:Ossoff performed slightly better than a dude who didn't even campaign in 2016. The only reason it was close was because the GOP candidate got far less votes than the guy who was running in 2016. So basically the dems blew a cool couple of tens of millions for nothing. Even with all the money and publicity pumped into it, a special election is never going to match a presidential election in turnout.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:50
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Ague Proof posted:Even with all the money and publicity pumped into it, a special election is never going to match a presidential election in turnout. The problem was that the national attention it got made Republicans understand it was an important race that they should show up for, and there were more of them. Trump's turnout depression looks like it goes up with time, hopefully it will be really high by next November.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:55
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Ague Proof posted:Even with all the money and publicity pumped into it, a special election is never going to match a presidential election in turnout. Sorry to say, but if you can't even really outperform a guy who's literally not even campaigning while having more money than anybody in the history of house races you're hot loving garbage as a candidate, off-year or no. theflyingorc posted:I'm saying let them run if they want, not focus on them, don't make it weird Better to run someone who's not garbage than to fill congress with dipshits who'll gently caress up any attempts to fix what needs fixing. A do-nothing Dem congress will just bring you another Trump down the line.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:57
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Cerebral Bore posted:Better to run someone who's not garbage than to fill congress with dipshits who'll gently caress up any attempts to fix what needs fixing. A do-nothing Dem congress will just bring you another Trump down the line. what do you think "running someone" entails
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Nov 10, 2017 20:59
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theflyingorc posted:how do you think elections work If you're so ignorant you don't know how elections work, I don't think I can help you.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:01
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Inasmuch as there was a single Democratic agency "running" people this year (there wasn't), it took the form of encouraging literally everyone to run for everything and seeing where it panned out. Again, primaries worked pretty well this time around.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:08
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So, is the DNC going to step up and properly fund Doug Jones' campaign?
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Nov 10, 2017 21:11
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mcmagic posted:So, is the DNC going to step up and properly fund Doug Jones' campaign? Hopefully they do the same thing they did in VA: quietly fund canvass and GOTV operations. They pumped a few million in down here and literally none of it was used for TV ads, which, good. TV ads don't seem to have the pull they once did.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:15
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Seriously, you really need to conceptualize a political strategy that goes beyond the next election. Just going "well it went well this time" without thinking of how you can and what you need to tackle the enormous problems that need tackling and leverage those solutions into future Congressional and State level gains is exactly why the dems have been reduced to a bicoastal regional party. And the first requirement for those solutions to materialize is people who will get with the program, and not people who'll support the GOP half the time and run away from your accomplishments. Like, say, the Blue Dogs. If you don't, you're just setting yourself up for more of the current bullshit where a buncha demented death cultists take over the country every eight years or so.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:17
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axeil posted:Hopefully they do the same thing they did in VA: quietly fund canvass and GOTV operations. The other effect here is that if you fund campaign infrastructure, some of that stuff stays in place for future elections and downballot races. So they pay dividends in ways funding TV ads doesn't. p.s. this strategy was a Perez brainchild 
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Nov 10, 2017 21:18
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Cerebral Bore posted:Seriously, you really need to conceptualize a political strategy that goes beyond the next election. Just going "well it went well this time" without thinking of how you can and what you need to tackle the enormous problems that need tackling and leverage those solutions into future Congressional and State level gains is exactly why the dems have been reduced to a bicoastal regional party. And the first requirement for those solutions to materialize is people who will get with the program, and not people who'll support the GOP half the time and run away from your accomplishments. Like, say, the Blue Dogs. Actually we should let whoever wins the primary in any given district compete as they are, and fund any race that we think a Democrat can possibly win (and I mean that extremely broadly), without trying to put a finger on the scale.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:20
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Quorum posted:The other effect here is that if you fund campaign infrastructure, some of that stuff stays in place for future elections and downballot races. So they pay dividends in ways funding TV ads doesn't. Tom Perez...good? Cerebral Bore posted:Seriously, you really need to conceptualize a political strategy that goes beyond the next election. Just going "well it went well this time" without thinking of how you can and what you need to tackle the enormous problems that need tackling and leverage those solutions into future Congressional and State level gains is exactly why the dems have been reduced to a bicoastal regional party. And the first requirement for those solutions to materialize is people who will get with the program, and not people who'll support the GOP half the time and run away from your accomplishments. Like, say, the Blue Dogs. I think the strategy is "run for everything possible, if there is a primary let 'em figure it out and then support the winner"
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Nov 10, 2017 21:23
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mcmagic posted:So, is the DNC going to step up and properly fund Doug Jones' campaign? What I'm reading is they're trying to figure out what resources they can get that are quiet so they don't nationalize the race. I bet they try to replicate the VA strategy.
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Nov 10, 2017 21:54
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Cerebral Bore posted:If you're so ignorant you don't know how elections work, I don't think I can help you. are you aware that primaries are elections
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Nov 10, 2017 21:54
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evilweasel posted:What I'm reading is they're trying to figure out what resources they can get that are quiet so they don't nationalize the race. I bet they try to replicate the VA strategy. Link?
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Nov 10, 2017 21:58
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