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Josef bugman posted:Any reason why? Is it just that there isn't much training and they are piss poor at it, bad commanders etc? I've seen all of the above given as reasons. Hell who knows maybe their officer corps is just packed with idiot nobles who got their commissions by birthright and never actually had to prove competence in their role.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:19
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Zenki and HTS are now at war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX9Z2ucOqzI https://twitter.com/RevoZamalka/status/928918486218428416
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Nov 10, 2017 15:27
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Just as a reminder since it's not exactly common knowledge, a year or two ago, KSA said through official channels that they and Turkey were going to directly invade Syria from the north and absolutely nothing happened. Any talk about Lebanon should be met with a huge eye roll and an "I'll believe it when I see it." Just so everyone understands the whole premise of this discussion is total bullshit.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:43
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I also read that this is the fourth time in five years that SA has told its citizens in Lebanon to leave. That said, they are ratcheting up tensions pretty much everywhere they can and over time the risk that something could escalate seems increasingly probable.
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Nov 10, 2017 15:54
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Volkerball posted:Just as a reminder since it's not exactly common knowledge, a year or two ago, KSA said through official channels that they and Turkey were going to directly invade Syria from the north and absolutely nothing happened. Any talk about Lebanon should be met with a huge eye roll and an "I'll believe it when I see it." Just so everyone understands the whole premise of this discussion is total bullshit. I wouldn't say total bullshit. KSA effectively kidnapped a foreign head of state and forced him to resign. Plus the purges. Plus the recent attempted blockade of Qatar. I don't at all see KSA getting directly involved in Lebanon, but they've been much more willing to take action of late. Plus having someone like Macron swoop in suggests to me this is relatively serious.
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Nov 10, 2017 16:10
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Throatwarbler posted:Zenki and HTS are now at war. Ah yes, another round of infighting. At this point, anyone who believes the opposition can still win the war must be completely delusional.
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Nov 10, 2017 16:47
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Count Roland posted:I wouldn't say total bullshit. Macron is probably there to try to negotiate Hariri's release, it'd make the most sense for a surprise visit given Franco-Lebanese ties.
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Nov 10, 2017 16:57
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Aren't there like 2 countries between Lebanon and SA? What the gently caress are they going to do, march through Damascus?
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Nov 10, 2017 17:40
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:Aren't there like 2 countries between Lebanon and SA? What the gently caress are they going to do, march through Damascus?
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Nov 10, 2017 17:53
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Throatwarbler posted:Zenki and HTS are now at war. It's very hard to read what is happening in Idlib. HTS has had full blown conflicts with most other major rebel factions, the regime and ISIS all in the past six months. On one hand they're consolidating their control over Idlib but on the other they are depleting their forces by taking on every foe possible. Combine this with the ongoing assassination campaign against HTS and they must be bleeding out manpower just ahead of the final or semi final battle for Syria. At the same time Turkey just entered Idlib to surround Afrin (because ~~~~KURDS~~~~) and took over some of the border from HTS without a major conflict erupting. I also saw a report/rumor that Turkey was transferring some of the foreign elements out of Idlib into the Euphrates Shield region. That is particularly believeable because the writing is on the wall for the rebels and as soon as ISIS is finished they are going to face the full weight of the Assadian forces, although perhaps without Hezbollah, and it would continue a long standing policy for Turkey to drain rebel manpower out of Idlib/Aleppo and push it towards their own designs in Syria. But what if Turkish designs include Idlib with the tacit approval of the regime? Would the regime view the SDF/YPG as a greater threat to their ambition than a radicalized Idlib beset by infighting? If there is any common ground amongst the non-US players in Syria it would definitely be ~~~~~KURDS~~~~~ 
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Nov 10, 2017 17:53
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One thing that has been made clear since the start of the Arab Spring is that Saudi Arabia and Israel are vastly constrained powers without open assistance from the United States. Israel and SA simply don't have the will to act and, possibly, not even the capacity.
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Nov 10, 2017 17:56
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You're all going to look pretty dumb when those Saudi/Emirati tank armies start disembarking at Eliat.
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Nov 10, 2017 18:08
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Brother Friendship posted:One thing that has been made clear since the start of the Arab Spring is that Saudi Arabia and Israel are vastly constrained powers without open assistance from the United States. Israel and SA simply don't have the will to act and, possibly, not even the capacity. I think you are taking the Israelis far too lightly. Also they basically act with impunity.
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Nov 10, 2017 18:55
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I wouldn't call the Israelis anywhere near the badasses they're still being hyped up to be ever since the war in the 60s, but no loving way would they be anywhere near as useless in an actual war as the Saudis have proven themselves to be.
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Nov 10, 2017 18:59
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Throatwarbler posted:You're all going to look pretty dumb when those Saudi/Emirati tank armies start disembarking at Eliat. Operation "حديقة السوق 2017"over Beirut is definitely going to be a viable and well thought out plan.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:06
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Human Grand Prix posted:I think you are taking the Israelis far too lightly. Also they basically act with impunity. Throatwarbler posted:You're all going to look pretty dumb when those Saudi/Emirati tank armies start disembarking at Eliat. Things can change, sure, but I'd argue that the reason that Israel and Saudi Arabia have been so frustrated with the United States throughout the course of the Arab Spring is that they were genuinely surprised that they couldn't influence our actions to achieve their designs and lacked the immediate ability to respond to that constraint. Ties were seriously strained due to the US for not allowing them to go hog wild with equipping the rebellion (MANPADS were always forbidden and ATGMS weren't allowed until...2014? 2015?). They were furious over Obama's handling of both the Nuclear deal as well as the 'Red Line' fiasco. Didn't Israel spend billions of dollars bluffing the United States into thinking that they were willing to launch a war with Iran to resolve the nuclear issue? And then Bibi freaked out when all that amounted to was an unfreezing of Iranian assets and the removal of sanctions and directly campaigned for Mitt Romney in 2012 (only to lose and make Obama hate him). But for all that they didn't really seem to do much about it. If anything, I'd guess this whole succession drama in Saudi Arabia is directly tied to them realizing that the United States couldn't be used as their crutch going forward and that they needed radical changes to compete with Iran for regional hegemony. Israel and Saudi Arabia openly aligned in the region and actively and directly countering Iran can change things but we can't see through the smoke and mirrors yet.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:21
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FAUXTON posted:I've seen all of the above given as reasons. Hell who knows maybe their officer corps is just packed with idiot nobles who got their commissions by birthright and never actually had to prove competence in their role. A good book to read on this subject is "Arabs at War" An in depth analysis of the various middle eastern militaries and how they have performed in various wars over the decades. Which is to say, not well. The general weaknesses seem to be the typical things you see in militaries fighting for dictators/authoritarian governments: Corruption, nepotism, classism, low morale, poor training, poor doctrine, poor logistics, etc. Also, since dictators tend to be highly unpopular and the military is both their greatest strength and biggest threat they tend to play different factions against each other. Like how Saudi Arabia has a national guard that is the favored military branch of the royals and would be used to defend them in the event the regular army rose up. None of this good for the military as a whole, especially against foreign threats. But again, most Arabia dictatorships are more worried about internal threats and thus their militaries perform poorly in real combat.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:30
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Sad recent story from Libya http://www.newsweek.com/comic-con-event-attacked-islamic-paramilitary-libya-702614 quote:
I remember feeling rather  when they held this event last year, it was just a small little blip of freedom and self actualization in the mess that is modern Libya. Pretty sad to see how little freedom the people of Libya have wound up with.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:47
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Squalid posted:Sad recent story from Libya At least no one died https://twitter.com/Hiba76Sh/status/781228562330349568
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Nov 10, 2017 19:58
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Squalid posted:Sad recent story from Libya loving wahabis(hell any kind of uber conservative religious parasites) are a cancer of this world. i hope these kids don't get murdered in public square because spider-man is evil to some weird child loving Wahhabi cleric and his illiterate underlings.
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Nov 10, 2017 19:59
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Whelp, at least they violently stormed that comic con event to keep those youths from promoting violence.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:24
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I'm at least glad to see that in that huge mess, there are still many people who simply want to live a normal life free from violence. Only thing you see from Libya, Yemen, Syria, etc is suffering, war, or extremist religious views. Usually all three.
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Nov 10, 2017 20:39
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CrazyLoon posted:I wouldn't call the Israelis anywhere near the badasses they're still being hyped up to be ever since the war in the 60s, but no loving way would they be anywhere near as useless in an actual war as the Saudis have proven themselves to be. The two biggest checks on Israel acting more aggressively in the region are that they're extremely casualty averse, which isn't likely to change in general, but they could endure more risk in the short term in order to head off what they see as a bigger problem down the line (Hezbollah becoming battle hardened with more Iranian support really does pose a problem for them), and that international pressure builds pretty quickly when they act outside of Palestine (and ultimately plays a factor when there's open conflict there too, though that issue is beyond the scope of this thread). The inconclusive fight in Lebanon in 2006 dragged on longer than it would normally be allowed to because Bush was unusually pro-Israel and was willing to play defense for them internationally, but Trump might be willing to back them even harder, particularly if there's a guarantee of quiet support from Saudi Arabia. That said, Russia's more involved in the region than they were back then, and would be unhappy to see Hezbollah ground to dust, so they may place some limitations on an Israeli campaign even if the US doesn't want to. Obviously Iran would be unhappy too, but Israel might be happy to have a chance to kill some Iranians in Syria if they tried to interfere (keeping Iran out of the border area is a strategic goal of Israel's), so that's arguably more pro than con. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Nov 11, 2017 |
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Nov 11, 2017 00:01
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Israel lining up reasons for it to do stuff in Syria. quote:The Iranian military is said to have established a compound at a site used by the Syrian army outside El-Kiswah, 14 km (8 miles) south of Damascus. quote:The base lies about 50 km (31 miles) from the Golan Heights - Syrian territory occupied and then annexed by Israel and where it now has a significant military presence. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41945189
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Nov 11, 2017 01:04
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41946310 welp, I think there's definitely a conflagration happening pretty soon https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/928990032916090880 Nasrallah is now saying that Israel is being asked by Saudi to hit lebanon.
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Nov 11, 2017 01:56
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Al-Saqr posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41946310 Wonder who will shoot first. It may still be hard saber rattling but I am worried.
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Nov 11, 2017 02:03
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Wonder who will shoot first. It may still be hard saber rattling but I am worried. the question running through my head is why now and not sooner, if they wanted to actually successfully attack Hezbollah they shouldve done it while the Iron was hot in Syria and while Assad was on the back foot and while there was enough hezbollah fighters busy in Syria, why are they picking the fight now?! at this point the Russians and Iranians have Syria Covered and now Hezbollah can recall it's battle hardened fighters back to lebanon no problem.
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Nov 11, 2017 02:08
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Al-Saqr posted:the question running through my head is why now and not sooner, if they wanted to actually successfully attack Hezbollah they shouldve done it while the Iron was hot in Syria and while Assad was on the back foot and while there was enough hezbollah fighters busy in Syria, why are they picking the fight now?! at this point the Russians and Iranians have Syria Covered and now Hezbollah can recall it's battle hardened fighters back to lebanon no problem. Trump is way more likely to support an attack than Obama would have been. The demonstrated reality of Iranian military power and influence in Iraq and Syria is surely behind some of the recent aggressive Saudi policy too, and MBS personally seems to be an aggressive leader. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Nov 11, 2017 |
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Nov 11, 2017 02:13
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ksa: hezbollah is at war with us hezbollah: no, ksa is at war with us ... ???
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Nov 11, 2017 02:50
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Al-Saqr posted:the question running through my head is why now and not sooner, if they wanted to actually successfully attack Hezbollah they shouldve done it while the Iron was hot in Syria and while Assad was on the back foot and while there was enough hezbollah fighters busy in Syria, why are they picking the fight now?! at this point the Russians and Iranians have Syria Covered and now Hezbollah can recall it's battle hardened fighters back to lebanon no problem. Because something has changed in the kingdom. The Qatar incident seemed equally unprompted and was rooted in grievances that went back years. Maybe Trump's "leadership" has enboldened them, but I think MBS's power play took precedence over everything else. Some of the other princes were involved in their own maneuverings in Syria and Lebanon and maybe two years ago he was more interested in watching them fail than helping the revolution succeed.
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Nov 11, 2017 02:51
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Duckbox posted:Because something has changed in the kingdom. The Qatar incident seemed equally unprompted and was rooted in grievances that went back years. Maybe Trump's "leadership" has enboldened them, but I think MBS's power play took precedence over everything else. Some of the other princes were involved in their own maneuverings in Syria and Lebanon and maybe two years ago he was more interested in watching them fail than helping the revolution succeed. I don't think it's so much that Trump is prompting Saudi Arabia to do this stupid poo poo as that Trump will allow it. Obama obviously went along with the intervention in Yemen, and provided logistical support, but even that was grudging, so it's hard to believe he would have been on board for further adventurism. Trying to do it without the US on board at all would obviously be a lot harder logistically, would contribute to diplomatic isolation, and would risk a bigger response from Russia in the worst case scenario. That isn't to say MBS isn't behind all of this, because I think he is the driver here, but conditions elsewhere are what's enabling his recklessness, though it's still very likely this will end up being as much of a bluff as the threats toward Qatar have been.
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Nov 11, 2017 03:16
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Maybe MBS just wants oil prices to shoot up. What easier way to do it then start a war with Iran and Iranian proxies? 
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Nov 11, 2017 04:21
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Watch MBS invade Kuwait.
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Nov 11, 2017 04:35
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My main question is: if Saudi or Israel were to launch a campaign against Hezbollah, what would be the objective? Israel could conceivably conduct a limited campaign to destroy Hezbollah rocket caches and positions along the southern border of Lebanon and Syria. However without new political constraints Hezbollah can just replace that material, especially with the strengthened ties between Iraq, Syria and Iran. I have no idea what Saudi Arabia could achieve with any kind of military campaign.
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Nov 11, 2017 04:39
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Squalid posted:My main question is: if Saudi or Israel were to launch a campaign against Hezbollah, what would be the objective? It's been a few years since Israel last "mowed the grass" and even though they never actually win anything in these wars, they seem to play well domestically. We usually keep I/P stuff quarantined in the the other thread so we haven't really gotten into Netanyahu's corruption scandal, but Likud could probably really go for a distracting patriotic upswelling right now.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:00
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Squalid posted:My main question is: if Saudi or Israel were to launch a campaign against Hezbollah, what would be the objective? KSA would see removing Hezbollah from the Lebanese government a victory. They seem also to be trying to provoke Iran, I assume they believe the US would step in if Iran got seriously shooty. Or maybe as a way to lure Syrian and Iranian militias into Lebanon. This could help sow chaos and mess up the government. loving I don't know, I don't understand their motivations.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:07
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I made something more useful than baseless speculation: 1) Saudi (KSA) jets could fly over Jordan and Syria to get to Lebanon. Jordan would probably allow Saudi flights. Syria wouldn't be happy. 2) Or KSA could go through rebel held territory in Syria. I checked and the SAA supposedly has territory going right up to the Golan Heights, so they'd still overfly Assad-controlled dirt. 3) If the Saudis were feeling cheeky, they could go over Jordan and then the Golan Heights. This would be diplomatically confusing and there might be weird laws governing this territory. 4) Its also possible to fly only over Israeli terrain, but only if they carefully fly over the Red Sea port of Eilat. Israel isn't likely to allow this, though since they hate Hezbollah and are egging the Saudis on it isn't impossible. 5) Or just fly over your ally's territory and the sea. Its a long flight but trouble free, mid-air refuelling would be a lot safer.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:13
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Count Roland posted:I made something more useful than baseless speculation: take note, saudi cant even take Sanaa and they have ALL the advantage in that arena and the distance is much closer, this is just so insane and beyond any capability Saudi has in the first place. Like, looking at this map makes this even more clear what a loving ridiculous notion that Saudi can project itself like this with any measure of seriousness.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:19
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This whole Hariri business has me really stumped. I'm not convinced Israel will do anything, and I'm convinced even the most incompetent Saudi strategist couldn't come up with a reason to attack Hezbollah militarily. Whether Hariri was forced or bribed into resigning, there has to be some kind of political strategy at play. What it is I can't figure out, possibly it makes no sense anyway.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:32
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Squalid posted:This whole Hariri business has me really stumped. I'm not convinced Israel will do anything, and I'm convinced even the most incompetent Saudi strategist couldn't come up with a reason to attack Hezbollah militarily. Whether Hariri was forced or bribed into resigning, there has to be some kind of political strategy at play. What it is I can't figure out, possibly it makes no sense anyway. I think it's about money. Hariri's company holds huge stakes in Saudi oil at a time when the kingdom is apparently strapped for cash. There's a massive Aramco ipo slated for next year and the Kingdom has lowered petro taxes in an apparent attempt to make it more enticing. I'm not a finance guy, so I wasn't following the ins and outs, but many of the people snared in the "corruption" probe were Saudi oil billionaires. Hariri's multi-billion-dollar business entanglements in Saudi make him dangerous to them, but also provide a lot of leverage over him. My pet theory is MBS is trying to monopolize his hold over Saudi oil wealth (the real keys to the kingdom) and Hariri was a loose end that needed tying. So they brought him in, sidelined him, and blamed it on Hezballah and Iran. Because they blame everything on Iran.
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Nov 11, 2017 06:28
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