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Speaking of Tesla, this is a rather comprehensive demolition job: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122890-tesla-approaches-terminal-decline
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Nov 11, 2017 22:15
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drgitlin posted:Speaking of Tesla, this is a rather comprehensive demolition job: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122890-tesla-approaches-terminal-decline I am never going to short Tesla. Betting against humanities stupidity is always a losing bet.
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Nov 11, 2017 22:22
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If you start believing trading blogs, you will never understand anything and you will never have money for more than a fleeting moment. They write anything about anything because they make their money on ad clicks from doubting amateur traders, there are even auto-generated blogs on penny stocks. Seeking Alpha is fairly well regarded though. But that isn't saying much, it's mostly vague emotion expressed as pseudo-intellectual hogwash. Take this:quote:The Tesla narrative is based on an illusion, a contradictio in adjecto - the promise that humankind can shop and consume itself into a sustainable future. Oooh, a latin expressio in a sentencio. If this was a fundamental principle underpinning their analysis, ALL companies on ALL stock exchanges would be short candidates. Still, blind hens find grain. Tesla is definitely burning money at space rocket rates, it is entirely possible to go bankrupt while making a great product. That in itself is not a good reason to risk money shorting a stock nor is it a big threat to the future of the electric car.
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Nov 11, 2017 22:37
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drgitlin posted:Speaking of Tesla, this is a rather comprehensive demolition job: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122890-tesla-approaches-terminal-decline This does a good job taking stuff apart, but also does a good job casually handwaving away self-driving stuff. It's pretty obvious that Tesla's dropped the ball on their planned software, but it seems to weird to presume that the current set of sensors are physically incapable of doing enough for a self-driving car. Ola posted:Still, blind hens find grain. Tesla is definitely burning money at space rocket rates, it is entirely possible to go bankrupt while making a great product. That in itself is not a good reason to risk money shorting a stock nor is it a big threat to the future of the electric car. My personal opinion is that either Tesla will go massively bankrupt, or they will last long enough to actually get self-driving cars working and then get bajillions of dollars because they can immediately keep selling cars with the full necessary hardware kit already included. Roadie fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Nov 11, 2017 |
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Nov 11, 2017 22:42
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Roadie posted:This does a good job taking stuff apart, but also does a good job casually handwaving away self-driving stuff. It's pretty obvious that Tesla's dropped the ball on their planned software, but it seems to weird to presume that the current set of sensors are physically incapable of doing enough for a self-driving car. You know for my job I talk to a lot of people working on self-driving cars, right? Guess how many of them think that optical cameras fused with cruise-control radar and ultrasonic parking sensors are sufficient to do the job? (Hint; no-one outside of Tesla.) I’m not even sure why people think Tesla are ahead of the pack here. Autopilot 2.0 (or 2.5) is less capable than 1.0 which used the same off-the-shelf HW as plenty of other companies, and it’s just ACC+LKA anyway. And current Volvos and Audis are just about as good. But is Tesla further ahead than, say, Waymo, for L4/L5? Well, Waymo’s probably going to launch its service in Phoenix in the next few months. Uncle Elon’s mob will still be hand-assembling Models 3 by then.
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Nov 11, 2017 23:19
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Ola posted:Oooh, a latin expressio in a sentencio. 
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Nov 11, 2017 23:20
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drgitlin posted:Speaking of Tesla, this is a rather comprehensive demolition job: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122890-tesla-approaches-terminal-decline No it's not. It's a blog that spews any talking point to manipulate share prices esp for short sellers - who up to now have been utterly taken to the cleaners by Tesla's share price.
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Nov 11, 2017 23:31
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drgitlin posted:You know for my job I talk to a lot of people working on self-driving cars, right? Guess how many of them think that optical cameras fused with cruise-control radar and ultrasonic parking sensors are sufficient to do the job? (Hint; no-one outside of Tesla.) Because Tesla themselves claim they are, and people believe them.
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Nov 12, 2017 00:18
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Also because Tesla already charged a bunch of people $4,000 for the feature.
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Nov 12, 2017 00:23
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:No it's not. It's a blog that spews any talking point to manipulate share prices esp for short sellers - who up to now have been utterly taken to the cleaners by Tesla's share price. Are you sure you're qualified to talk about this? You've stated that Tesla wouldn't need another funding round, and were proven utterly wrong just ten days later; you are hopelessly confused about the difference between a fixed and variable cost; just three months ago you wrote: CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:So they project have will have the cash to cover future CAPEX, Model 3 production is projected to be better than earlier projections, Model 3 reservations are growing, existing model sales have increased, Model 3 revenue to exceed costs late 2018, cash burn due to further manufacturing expansion with actual car production well and truly in the black. The people you call "loving idiots" have been MUCH more right about how things are going than you were, so what does that make you? I'm only bringing this up to say (regardless of how much one likes the cars) Tesla is NOT a well-run business and their financial statements are terrible. Right now this company exists at the pleasure of Wall Street, and if Wall Street's love for the company ever changes--which might be beginning to happen, as that bond issue is already 6% underwater--Tesla will have serious problems. There will be another capital raise within the next six months, with a decent chance of one within the next two weeks, and we'll see how that goes. But it seems nuts to ignore the plainly visible problems at Fremont.
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Nov 12, 2017 00:38
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As much as a Tesla fanboy I am, I'm going to have to say that Agronox delivers a more credible, succinct message than the Seeking Alpha blogger.
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Nov 12, 2017 01:42
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Grsx17wv4k The video's really overdone, but this is definitely another one of those markets where electrification will make sense sooner rather than later. Most school buses run a pretty much fixed route 2-4 times per day, doing a bunch of stop-and-go, and are parked in between. That said I did get a lot of really good sleep sitting on top of the motor in the back of my bus when growing up.
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Nov 12, 2017 21:47
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/929823757635481600 Tesla semi truck reveal on Thursday.
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Nov 13, 2017 17:23
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drgitlin posted:You know for my job I talk to a lot of people working on self-driving cars, right? Guess how many of them think that optical cameras fused with cruise-control radar and ultrasonic parking sensors are sufficient to do the job? (Hint; no-one outside of Tesla.) I think there's ample evidence that an optical based system for driving a car would result in some hilarious failure modes in this thread https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3568842
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Nov 13, 2017 18:24
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El Grillo posted:https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/929823757635481600 Pretty bold for Tesla to be hyping blowing your brains out of your skull with a semi truck.
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Nov 13, 2017 18:25
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I've seen Renault ZOE's in Indianapolis (car share thing) so someone is importing them. The one with the 41kwh battery sells for a decent price and has good crash ratings. So can one actually buy this in the USA as an individual?
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Nov 13, 2017 20:11
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borkencode posted:I think there's ample evidence that an optical based system for driving a car would result in some hilarious failure modes in this thread https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3568842 Virtually all cars are operated using optical-only systems, no? A bit of audio, I guess.
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Nov 13, 2017 21:08
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Everyone in AI is a captain of industry now. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 13, 2017 21:55
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VideoGameVet posted:I've seen Renault ZOE's in Indianapolis (car share thing) so someone is importing them. What service is this? BlueIndy (Bollore) uses purpose-built Pininfarina/Cecomp hatchbacks. I haven't seen any Renaults on the street.
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Nov 13, 2017 22:14
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bennyfactor posted:What service is this? BlueIndy (Bollore) uses purpose-built Pininfarina/Cecomp hatchbacks. I haven't seen any Renaults on the street. Blue Indy: https://www.blue-indy.com  And I stand corrected, it is the Bollore Bluecar. And this is a Renault ZOE  (the 41kwh version is rated for 400km range)
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Nov 14, 2017 07:01
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That 300+hp Leaf powered CRX is back. Check out this Discovery episode featuring The car running 12s. You can hear the car struggling for traction practically the entire way down the track! https://www.discovery.ca/Shows/Daily-Planet/video
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Nov 15, 2017 02:50
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Vitamin J posted:That 300+hp Leaf powered CRX is back. Check out this Discovery episode featuring The car running 12s. You can hear the car struggling for traction practically the entire way down the track! I loved my CRX. An electric conversion would be very nice. The other would be to take an original 2000-2006 Honda Insight Hybrid and turn it all EV.
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Nov 15, 2017 07:25
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VideoGameVet posted:I loved my CRX. An electric conversion would be very nice. I seem to recall someone doing that. Maybe I imagined it.
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Nov 15, 2017 07:35
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https://electrek.co/2017/11/15/tesla-online-biggest-supercharger-stations-us-first-look-new-lounge/ They got that up awfully fast.
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Nov 15, 2017 15:15
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That's pretty cool. Kind of like a highway rest stop for EVs. Maybe they'll try to license the concept to a truck stop operator like Flying J or TCA or something.
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Nov 15, 2017 15:26
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https://supercharge.info/ Wow look at the number of Superchargers under construction... Don't think I have ever seen that many at once. And a lot of them are 12+ stalls. Doesn't look like 8 is the standard anymore. I wonder when another manufacturer will take Tesla up on their offer to allow access to the SC network...
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Nov 15, 2017 16:01
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stevewm posted:https://electrek.co/2017/11/15/tesla-online-biggest-supercharger-stations-us-first-look-new-lounge/ Seems like they missed a trick not locking people in overpriced merch stores while their cars charge. You know most Tesla owners would buy a $150 macbook sleeve with the tesla logo on it if they had to share a room with it for half an hour.
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Nov 15, 2017 18:27
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Powershift posted:Seems like they missed a trick not locking people in overpriced merch stores while their cars charge. $250 if they could make the logo glow to reflect charge state.
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Nov 15, 2017 18:31
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Powershift posted:Seems like they missed a trick not locking people in overpriced merch stores while their cars charge. Who says they won't? We haven't seen what's inside the building yet...
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Nov 15, 2017 19:06
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Hmm. Thread favorite GM presented at an automotive investor conference today. They are going to introduce two BEV CUVs by 2020, hope to have their battery costs down by a third around 2021, and aim to sell 100k electric vehicles next year. I'm not sure how that last one is possible unless they're really rolling out a ton of Bolt capacity or including hybrids in there.
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Nov 15, 2017 19:09
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Heres hoping a manufacturer takes Tesla up on their offer for access to the SC network.
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Nov 15, 2017 19:22
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stevewm posted:Heres hoping a manufacturer takes Tesla up on their offer for access to the SC network. Did they offer that? Tesla needs a bunch of free ones for Model 3 launch. I hope at least that other car makers or charging system makers start implementing the idea of reading the car ID out of the charge port, so it can just charge you money via your car registered account instead of waving RFID chips around or downloading single use apps. If your car isn't registered, pay by card terminal, as I could do since I first got my license.
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Nov 15, 2017 19:49
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Ola posted:Did they offer that? Tesla needs a bunch of free ones for Model 3 launch. https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/tesla-supercharger-sharing-automakers/ Tesla has always said they would welcome others on the network if an agreement could be reached. Shell made a big thing about installing chargers at their stations in the UK. They said the #1 request was payment via normal means like a credit card, and to not require the use of an app or otherwise special card, which they said was being actively worked on. I wish the charger networks in the US would do the same. And also not charge a "connection" fee of $5.95 like EVgo does. stevewm fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Nov 15, 2017 |
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Nov 15, 2017 20:02
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I think there's some marketing, or even engineering, compulsion nowadays that there has to be an app no matter what you do. If the idea is a single use app, there is a better, more fundamental way to do it. If the idea is RFID or QR, there is definitely a better way to do it. I suppose card terminals cost money, but then again so do app developers and cloud servers. The payment goes through the same VISA infrastructure or equivalent anyway.
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Nov 15, 2017 20:11
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Ola posted:I think there's some marketing, or even engineering, compulsion nowadays that there has to be an app no matter what you do. If the idea is a single use app, there is a better, more fundamental way to do it. If the idea is RFID or QR, there is definitely a better way to do it. I suppose card terminals cost money, but then again so do app developers and cloud servers. The payment goes through the same VISA infrastructure or equivalent anyway. I loving hate that so many conferences now have a goddamn app for the conference. If I'm in a hotel for 3 days to go to 8 meetings, the location and schedule of which I have printed on my loving badge, I don't want or need your app.
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Nov 15, 2017 20:14
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eyebeem posted:I loving hate that so many conferences now have a goddamn app for the conference. but but but how else will you rate every speaker and class and hashtag everything and see the conference wall. Ugh. I just had to do that to sign up for classes at a 3 day conference. It was so irritating. Also - yeah. I really hope that more auto makers will get in on the Tesla Super Chargers because they're doing a great job getting them put into logical spots and filling up the map.
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Nov 15, 2017 21:02
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stevewm posted:https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/tesla-supercharger-sharing-automakers/ This has been my biggest complaint, not only is there a $6 fee to just hook up but you pay by minute not by now much electricity you get. All they need is a credit card swipe and a pay per kwh delivered. Maybe some sort of fee if you stay there too long after charging to free up stations.
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Nov 15, 2017 21:09
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In Norway, everyone was arguing for pay per kWh until range anxiety got replaced by charging queue anxiety, and now everyone is for pay per minute as it incentivizes stopping at around 80% (at least to non-idiots). But with a rip-off connection fee, you'll want to stay until you get your fill. Complain.
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Nov 15, 2017 21:38
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Per minute kinda sucks for us with 3.3kw chargers
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Nov 15, 2017 21:43
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blugu64 posted:Per minute kinda sucks for us with 3.3kw chargers I was thinking for DC charging, which I assume you have as well. It would suck for you to pay a fair 43 kW rate for just 3.3 kW, but it would also suck for a Renault Zoe with 43 kW charging to wait 5 hours in line while you trickle charge at less than 10% installation power. 3.3 kW charging isn't really something you should do at a charging station but a charging enabled parking space, infrastructure allowing. e: DC chargers can also have first 30 minutes rate x, next 30 minutes rate 2x, then rate 4x.
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Nov 15, 2017 21:46
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