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Uranium 235 posted:day traders can make money in bear markets, not just bull markets from the last page: quote:The products and their markets have existed for fewer than 10 years and bear little if any relationship to any economic circumstance or reality in the real world.
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Nov 16, 2017 20:38
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Uranium 235 posted:day traders can make money in bear markets, not just bull markets. what makes you think times need to be good for them to make money? I meant good times for the individual. Once you fail to predict a significant market change and gently caress yourself over, you're not going to come in here talking about it The 2008 example was just a good one because most people bet on the market going up, so lots of daytraders suddenly went silent
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Nov 16, 2017 20:40
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Inept posted:I meant good times for the individual. Once you fail to predict a significant market change and gently caress yourself over, you're not going to come in here talking about it it's also weird that's you're talking about day traders as a bloc, like they all trade the same way. i think you're just making poo poo up because it sounds right to you
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Nov 16, 2017 20:51
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gary oldmans diary posted:well the terms bear and bull market dont really apply to bitcoin as of yet what would you call the two year period following the mtgox crash where bitcoin prices dropped? seems to fit the definition of "bear market" to me
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Nov 16, 2017 20:53
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I think you're talking past each other a bit. One person seems to be saying "people only brag when they are up and then when they are down they disappear" and the other is saying "traders profit from volatility too not just general up/down trends." Neither one of you is wrong? But that said the % of actual traders who make money in market shock periods is pretty small because most traders are just retail traders with no knowledge that isn't just public info anyway.
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Nov 16, 2017 20:54
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Uranium 235 posted:i don't understand what you're trying to say here. do you think that day traders as a group went long on SPY or something? generally speaking, day traders are in cash the majority of the time and only make quick trades over short periods of time (they enter and exit trades the same day, hence the term "day trader") so they would not have been caught by a rapid drop in stock values because they probably were not holding stocks through the recession Lots of daytraders got hosed by the recession like everyone else. I was using an example of a mass silencing of people spouting random poo poo about being smart traders. I don't think all daytraders made out worse. Just when they do badly, they aren't going to talk about it. Also survivorship bias.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:00
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COMRADES posted:I think you're talking past each other a bit. One person seems to be saying "people only brag when they are up and then when they are down they disappear" and the other is saying "traders profit from volatility too not just general up/down trends." Neither one of you is wrong?
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Nov 16, 2017 21:03
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Uranium 235 posted:i agree with the bolded, that's human nature. his specific claim about day traders getting wiped out by the recession is, i suspect, based on nothing but his own intuition. Is it really a statement that needs citation that a lot of people lost a lot of money in 2008, including daytraders? Come on.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:05
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It was the second worst financial crisis in American history behind the Great Depression and only a few people predicted and profited off it which is why there is a book and a movie about those people.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:10
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The Bitcoin bubble in 2017 appears entirely held up with Tethers. There isn't even honest analysable speculation going on, your adversary is literally the exchanges. Of course a few clever traders have decided they will follow along with the releases of Tethers, and I'm sure that literally attempting to guess what a blatant market manipulator's next move will be will work out fine and nothing will go terribly wrong.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:11
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Inept posted:Is it really a statement that needs citation that a lot of people lost a lot of money in 2008, including daytraders? Come on.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:16
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:It was the second worst financial crisis in American history behind the Great Depression and only a few people predicted and profited off it which is why there is a book and a movie about those people. i have the impression that you guys don't understand the difference between investing and trading.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:19
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divabot posted:The Bitcoin bubble in 2017 appears entirely held up with Tethers. There isn't even honest analysable speculation going on, your adversary is literally the exchanges. i'm not exposed to tether at the moment so i'm not too concerned about how a tether meltdown would affect me. it's a factor i consider when deciding whether to move capital to an exchange like bittrex though.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:31
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Please report back to the thread with evidence that most day traders make money in any market. Every available analysis says most day traders end up losing money.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:31
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I mined some bitcoin with my nvidia card a few years ago but gave up because I was using too much electricity and only got like .001 of a bitcoin. I guess it's worth about 6$ now. If I could find that drat bitcoin wallet file I could really cash in.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:34
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:Please report back to the thread with evidence that most day traders make money in any market. Yep, here's a study of Taiwan's stock market from 2004 http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trade%20040330.pdf More than 8 in 10 lost money.
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Nov 16, 2017 21:35
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:Please report back to the thread with evidence that most day traders make money in any market. it is a fact, however, that some traders are successful, and i don't believe that someone who is consistently successful in a bull market is going to suddenly become unsuccessful because the market trend changed. the same principles apply to bull markets and bear markets and traders can profit from either this is why i doubt that day traders who were successful before the recession ("bragging") would get wiped out by the recession. and i specifically mean day traders, not investors. idk, maybe some people who just went long on stocks called themselves day traders and got killed by the recession, and they're the ones who shut up? that's plausible
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Nov 16, 2017 21:40
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If you cashed out today how much money would you make? And if the price dropped to $1200 and stayed how much would you lose?
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Nov 16, 2017 21:42
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:If you cashed out today how much money would you make? And if the price dropped to $1200 and stayed how much would you lose? i'm holding USD right now, as i do 99% of the time (i'm only in crypto when i'm making a trade and i have a stop order placed) so if the price dropped to $1200 i'd still make 325% profit
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Nov 16, 2017 21:47
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Uranium 235 posted:you don't think bitcoin is a bull market right now? what would you call it? quote:The products and their markets have existed for fewer than 10 years and bear little if any relationship to any economic circumstance or reality in the real world. besides its closer to 1 stock rising than a market
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Nov 16, 2017 21:57
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gary oldmans diary posted:if it were a bull market and not rampant activity that should be regulated in a normal market lifting the price i would call it a bull market but the quote here it's a bull market
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Nov 16, 2017 22:01
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lmao ok. ill just accept you using these real terms to describe bitcoin
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Nov 16, 2017 22:04
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gary oldmans diary posted:lmao ok. ill just accept you using these real terms to describe bitcoin listen to the professional trader
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Nov 16, 2017 22:06
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I won $50 on a scratcher that only cost me $5. It works and it's a legit investment strategy. invest all your money in scratchers.
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Nov 16, 2017 22:08
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gary oldmans diary posted:lmao ok. ill just accept you using these real terms to describe bitcoin this time, two minutes
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Nov 16, 2017 22:17
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thingsthathappened.com
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Nov 16, 2017 22:18
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"I've been watching all this poo poo from the sidelines and Coinbase is still having a hell of a time trying to even confirm my identity, bank account AND debit card. All the while I watched my $5500 *not* turn into $7750 today. So that's fun.  "Seeing posts like this give me pause about investing in Bitcoin
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Nov 16, 2017 22:19
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Gianthogweed posted:I mined some bitcoin with my nvidia card a few years ago but gave up because I was using too much electricity and only got like .001 of a bitcoin. I guess it's worth about 6$ now. If I could find that drat bitcoin wallet file I could really cash in. It would cost you 20 bucks to cash out.
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Nov 16, 2017 22:21
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Uranium 235 posted:by that argument, all commodities are ponzi schemes because they cannot generate money the way a stock can *goes to the grocery store* Yup just going to invest in some ponzi schemes now, as I often do *picks up an apple* oh this ponzi looks really good *adds the apple to his cart* Hmm I think I'm out of rice, I'd better pick up a ponzi of rice oh wait that wasn't actually his argument at all and you're just being dense
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Nov 16, 2017 22:45
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Uranium 235 posted:it's possible but i don't think the argument put forward by bitfinex'd is conclusive. imo there's still a plausible innocent explanation. if tether is legitimately solvent and capital is legitimately moving into the bitcoin market via cash deposits to exchanges, then there should be an increase in supply of tether. unfortunately the "audit" is not convincing so people need to be really careful if they're on exchanges that rely on tether. Tethers aren't redeemable, the Tether legal page even says so. Tethers don't reflect money "flowing" anywhere. If the price of tethers collapsed tomorrow everyone holding tether wouldn't get dick for them. It'd be like a stock trader using $100M to buy stocks by just marking "+100M in ca$h" in a book somewhere, without having ever taken out a loan or received money from anyone
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Nov 16, 2017 22:50
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yes, i too plan on blowing my wad at 10k.
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Nov 16, 2017 22:53
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QuarkJets posted:*goes to the grocery store*
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Nov 16, 2017 22:55
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gary oldmans diary posted:you might think you will see the warning signs and get out ahead of the curve but the thing is those events happen fast. right now you dont feel like it could possibly be soon so youve already allowed yourself to assume months away is likely but it cant be predicted I've felt like it was going to be any week now the entire time I've been in and still think it's going to be soon, but it's not going to happen in the month before or in the first little while after Wall Street, which is either insanely long on BTC or staying away from it, pours all the money in the world on the pile. virtually every other time period is insanely risky but I pulled out my initial capital months ago so who cares in fact, making insanely risky bets for a small enough fraction of your net worth in a bubble is possibly the biggest +EV life changing move you can make - while the bubble runs virtually everything you do will print money, so as long as you keep taking $ off the table and accept that you're going to lose most of the rest, the amount you take off should still be life changing if it lasts long enough playing a game where you lose X 90% of the time and make 100X the rest should really be a no brainer for most people but vOv risk aversion
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Nov 16, 2017 22:57
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Uranium 235 posted:in this post you show that you agree that commodities aren't ponzis, well done 9.5/10 excellent form, beautiful landing
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Nov 16, 2017 23:01
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Uranium 235 posted:in this post you show that you agree that commodities aren't ponzis, well done The point is that those commodities have some kind of use underlying their value so although they by themselves don't generate profit/value they are either an end use product (to be eaten for example) or something that can be used in production to generate value. The value of oil is what we can do with it - it has no value by itself. What do Bitcoins do? They don't do anything and their price is entirely determined by speculation. COMRADES fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Nov 16, 2017 |
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Nov 16, 2017 23:02
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Inept posted:The 2008 example was just a good one because most people bet on the market going up, so lots of daytraders suddenly went silent Definitely lived this one.
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Nov 16, 2017 23:05
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You'd be foolish not to flip houses right now, the market has been skyrocketing ever since bush cut taxes! Oh wait wrong decade, I meant Trump.
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Nov 16, 2017 23:15
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Adar posted:I've felt like it was going to be any week now the entire time I've been in and still think it's going to be soon, but it's not going to happen in the month before or in the first little while after Wall Street, which is either insanely long on BTC or staying away from it, pours all the money in the world on the pile. virtually every other time period is insanely risky but I pulled out my initial capital months ago so who cares I generally agree with that, although I mean I don't know how anyone could have predicted with any real reasoning that it could ever get up to $10k or whatever. Like, I don't really see a reason that it couldn't have just stalled out at $100 or $1000 or $3000 or any other number I guess I know a lot of other poker people that have a lot of bitcoin and I'm certainly not anti-sweating any of them, I hope they make money, I'd just rather put my money into real life businesses and real estate stuff where I can estimate the EV a lot better.
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Nov 16, 2017 23:21
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Adar posted:in fact, making insanely risky bets for a small enough fraction of your net worth in a bubble is possibly the biggest +EV life changing move you can make - while the bubble runs virtually everything you do will print money, so as long as you keep taking $ off the table and accept that you're going to lose most of the rest, the amount you take off should still be life changing if it lasts long enough There's a group of people that decided that the risk is so high literally nobody should be even considering it or trying it, and spending years repeating that narrative using misleading claims, which is exactly what I've taken issue with the whole time Stefan Prodan posted:I generally agree with that, although I mean I don't know how anyone could have predicted with any real reasoning that it could ever get up to $10k or whatever. If you believe that cryptocurrencies have advantages over existing currencies that make them useful to people for transactions, then it's a reason for them to be appreciating as their usage / adoption increases
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Nov 16, 2017 23:38
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Ham Sandwiches posted:There's a group of people that decided that the risk is so high literally nobody should be even considering it or trying it, and spending years repeating that narrative using misleading claims, which is exactly what I've taken issue with the whole time What advantages
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Nov 16, 2017 23:47
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