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el3m
Jun 18, 2005
Grimey Drawer
How is he doing vs. historical performance in pilot pools/experience?
Is he on "track" to lose 10k pilots by then end of year?

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aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


The Japanese seem to have planned for a very different war than the one they got which is probably explainable by the fact that they would have had to be insane to plan for the one they got.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Yeah, a really short one where they give the Allies a few lumps that bring them to the negotiating table.

RA Rx
Mar 24, 2016

rantAK posted:

How is he doing vs. historical performance in pilot pools/experience?
Is he on "track" to lose 10k pilots by then end of year?

I think he's losing considerably less, but not enough to make a difference, ultimately.

Combined with his victories at sea Grey's bought Japan an extra year before being nuked into submission.

Maybe he could bring the US to the negotiating table if he could wipe out the Essex and Midway classes, on top of the silent service of course.

RA Rx fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Nov 20, 2017

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
Yamamoto probably put it best:

quote:

Should hostilities once break out between Japan and the United States, it would not be enough that we take Guam and the Philippines, nor even Hawaii and San Francisco. To make victory certain, we would have to march into Washington and dictate the terms of peace in the White House.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Ikasuhito posted:

Yeah, a really short one where they give the Allies a few lumps that bring them to the negotiating table.

Hilariously this was also Italy's plan, and depending on how you look at it, Germany's as well.

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry

RZApublican posted:

Hilariously this was also Italy's plan, and depending on how you look at it, Germany's as well.

Italy was more "Holy poo poo Germany is giving them some lumps, we should join before they go to the negotiation table"

Germany not so much.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

We laugh now, but at the time that was sort of how a lot of wars had been going, though. You fought for a while, traded colony holdings and maybe some other more important territory, and then came to the table and negotiated. WWI had also happened, but the same things kind of happened there, too. The Japanese were not totally off-base in thinking the principle could apply to the US and its allies with regards to the southeast-asian colonies and holdings, too. I mean obviously they were wrong, but it wasn't just this wildly unfounded idea they'd cooked up out of nowhere.

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry

Leperflesh posted:

We laugh now, but at the time that was sort of how a lot of wars had been going, though. You fought for a while, traded colony holdings and maybe some other more important territory, and then came to the table and negotiated. WWI had also happened, but the same things kind of happened there, too. The Japanese were not totally off-base in thinking the principle could apply to the US and its allies with regards to the southeast-asian colonies and holdings, too. I mean obviously they were wrong, but it wasn't just this wildly unfounded idea they'd cooked up out of nowhere.

quote:

On 5 June, Mussolini told Badoglio, "I only need a few thousand dead so that I can sit at the peace conference as a man who has fought.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

That's funny because it was exactly that kind of thinking (in part) that made Italians so mad after WWI that they supported Mussolini in the first place

frankenfreak
Feb 16, 2007

I SCORED 85% ON A QUIZ ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT RAW AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY TEXT

#bastionboogerbrigade

vyelkin posted:

That's funny because it was exactly that kind of thinking (in part) that made Italians so mad after WWI that they supported Mussolini in the first place
The other part of their thinking was of course thinking they needed a victory at the Isonzo. :v:

GenHavoc
Jul 19, 2006

Vive L'Empreur!
Vive La Surcouf!
That article was fascinating. I knew Japanese logistics were a catastrophe, but I had no idea they were that bad...

lenoon
Jan 7, 2010

frankenfreak posted:

The other part of their thinking was of course thinking they needed a victory at the Isonzo. :v:

What part of FOR TRENTO AND TRIESTE don’t you understand

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

vyelkin posted:

That's funny because it was exactly that kind of thinking (in part) that made Italians so mad after WWI that they supported Mussolini in the first place

The Italians got pretty much everything reasonable people could have wanted out of WWI. I don't think Italy trying to hold on to Dalmatia was long run going to work out.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

The Italians got pretty much everything reasonable people could have wanted out of WWI. I don't think Italy trying to hold on to Dalmatia was long run going to work out.

Reasonable people were in short supply across Europe.

Mikl
Nov 8, 2009

Vote shit sandwich or the shit sandwich gets it!
And the world in general, in that time period. Let's make Germany take the whole fault for the war and severely punished her regarding territory! And force her to pay unsustainable war reparations! Surely this won't cause any problems or revanchist sentiment in the long run!

(Spoiler: it did :hitler:)

PittTheElder
Feb 13, 2012

:geno: Yes, it's like a lava lamp.

Mikl posted:

And the world in general, in that time period. Let's make Germany take the whole fault for the war and severely punished her regarding territory! And force her to pay unsustainable war reparations! Surely this won't cause any problems or revanchist sentiment in the long run!

(Spoiler: it did :hitler:)

Eh, the connection really isn't that clear. The war guilt clause and reparations were certainly used very effectively for propaganda purposes, but weren't by themselves causes of failure for the Weimar state. By the mid-20's foreign policy is settling out acceptably through the Locarno Treaties (sure Poland got the shaft, but this is a proud European tradition) and the western powers have worked out a reparations scheme that works well for everyone (American loans to Germany allow Germany to pay France and Britain, France and Britain use the money to pay down their American debts),

What really torpedoes the Weimar state is the onset of the Great Depression, which causes American credit to evaporate. The German budget is immediately unsustainable, the conservatives at the top of the political pyramid embrace very harsh austerity measures, and the economy undergoes a giant contraction. Here the reparations do start to become a real factor, but the Allies recognized as much and another settlement likely could have been worked out. But that doesn't happen, the Chancellor (who is already ruling by decree according to the emergency powers granted by the constitution) triggers a deflationary cycle that caused nothing but havoc, and by the end of 1932 31% of the workforce is unemployed, people are loving pissed, and the governments ability to react effectively causes the surge in support for the revolutionary parties. If you put a more competent government in place it's possible all of that could have been avoided.

Deep Dish Fuckfest
Sep 6, 2006

Advanced
Computer Touching


Toilet Rascal
Alternatively, you can erase Hitler from history around 1925, but then Stalin will invade Europe sometime in the early 1950s. You get really sweet poo poo like Tesla coils, though, so it's probably worth it.

frankenfreak
Feb 16, 2007

I SCORED 85% ON A QUIZ ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT RAW AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY TEXT

#bastionboogerbrigade

aphid_licker posted:

Reasonable people were in short supply across Europe.
"Were." I admire your optimism.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Lord Koth posted:

Basically, the Japanese finally realized that their production rate of pilots was far, far too low but, given this didn't happen until '43, it was far too late by then to make a difference, especially as they were already experiencing many other shortages.

Here's a brief article on the subject: http://www.historynet.com/japans-fatally-flawed-air-forces-in-world-war-ii-2.htm

If you don't feel like reading the entire thing, here are two paragraphs from it that pretty well sum up the situation at this point.

The section of the article about airfield construction and maintenance sticks out to me

quote:

The Japanese army had to use infantrymen to help build airfields. In December 1942, for example, the engineer regiment and three rifle battalions of the 5th Division were detailed to build airfields in the Solomons. “When we compare [our] clumsy result with what our enemy accomplished,” recalled Commander Chihaya, “building huge airfields in good numbers with inconceivable speed, we ceased to wonder why we were utterly beaten. Our enemy was superior in every respect.”

Food at Japanese airfields was bad. Barracks were jungle slums. There were no laundry facilities, and men washed themselves in rivers, or under water-filled cans. Disease felled pilots and left serviceable aircraft grounded. Physical exhaustion lowered pilot performance, so that lesser-skilled opponents sometimes shot down veteran but feverish Japanese pilots.

Manpower became critical with no tractors, and ground crews wore themselves out pushing aircraft around fields. They worked at night to avoid Allied air attacks, only to fall victim to the malaria mosquito, which was most active at night. Men worked seven days a week in wretched weather at exhausting and mind-numbing tasks. Ground crews became nervous and irritable from lack of sleep. It took longer and longer to accomplish a given assignment. Minor as well as major accidents increased.

Raw human muscle wrestled bombs, cannon shells and machine gun rounds onto aircraft. Mechanics pulled maintenance on baking hot fields in direct tropical sunlight, for there were no hangars. When flooded airstrips dried after rains, dust billowed up in the wake of each aircraft, choking cockpit interiors and eroding engines.

“The maintenance crews are exhausted, but they drag their weary bodies about the field, heaving and tugging to move the planes back into the jungle,” a navy pilot at Buin wrote in July 1943. “They pray for tractors such as the Americans have in abundance, but they know their dream of such “luxuries’ will not be fulfilled.”

Commanders and planners lacked any understanding of the vast numbers of technicians required to support a modern army. Although there had always been shortages of trained mechanics, commanders showed little interest in sending their men to the ordnance school in Japan. The service schools themselves paid little attention to logistics and engineering support of combat forces. Nor did commanders establish schools or training programs at tactical units or in geographic army areas.

Japan’s absence of standardization in weapons and equipment ranged from aircraft types to different engines, down to instruments and the smallest accessories. The army used a 24-volt electrical system, whereas the navy used a different voltage. Mounts to hold guns, cannons and rocket launchers varied between the two services. By the end of the war, Japan produced at least 90 basic aircraft types (53 navy and 37 army) and 164 variations on basic types (112 navy and 52 army), making the logisticians’ jobs that much harder.

I don't know how the game would have simulated the absolute nightmarish conditions that the Japanese player's construction units would have historically been subjected to, but the fact that it doesn't is a beautiful gift to the player.

Also, holy poo poo, I knew that the lack of coordination between the Army and Navy was bad but each branch of service having it's own voltage is just insanity past the point of no return.

sullat
Jan 9, 2012
I bet the Japanese subs don't even have ice cream machines.

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry
53 and 37 "Basic Aircraft Types" is incredibly generous and I would love to know what they base that on if the variants are so high as well.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






I was right about those wildcats!



We get a strike in, but our heavy air losses continue.



We do better on the defensive.






The fighter wings on my carriers are starting to look sorry – but it's the loss of pilots I fear the most!

Skanky Burns
Jan 9, 2009

sullat posted:

I bet the Japanese subs don't even have ice cream machines.

To be fair, at least they went to war with working torpedoes.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
Good luck taking out the CVE's. Think you can manage to take them? And.. How did your convoy run into them and not take any losses at all?

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

wedgekree posted:

Good luck taking out the CVE's. Think you can manage to take them? And.. How did your convoy run into them and not take any losses at all?

Both a transport TF and a carrier TF abhor surface combat. The DD escorts would only have engaged to run interference for the carriers to withdraw, but since the Japanese transports would also have withdrawn immediately on their end, everyone runs away and nothing happens, even if that's not what we think would have happened IRL.

3 DONG HORSE
May 22, 2008

I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Skanky Burns posted:

To be fair, at least they went to war with working torpedoes.

Fact: the presence of ice cream in a theater of operations directly correlates to success

Coucho Marx
Mar 2, 2009

kick back and relax
This sounds like a good time to ask people to find and read Shattered Sword (if everyone here hasn't already). It's a superb book that really gets into the myriad problems Japan had in planning and operating the war in the Pacific; from faulty campaign plans to personality clashes, problematic officer culture and damage control procedures; from risky ship design and function to difficult deck operations and distractable CAP pilots; from poor scouting and battle plans to command indecision; all the way down to intelligence failures and plain bad luck. The authors go out of their way to use mostly Japanese sources to get the most accurate view of the events as possible, and the minute-by-minute playback of events as they unfold is at the same time exhilarating, fascinating, and absolutely heart-wrenching, knowing that it resulted in the pointless and avoidable deaths of thousands.

I don't read much, of anything, ever. I have only a passing interest in WW2, and no particular interest in the Pacific theatre.

I have read this book four times.

Bold Robot
Jan 6, 2009

Be brave.



Coucho Marx posted:

This sounds like a good time to ask people to find and read Shattered Sword (if everyone here hasn't already). It's a superb book that really gets into the myriad problems Japan had in planning and operating the war in the Pacific; from faulty campaign plans to personality clashes, problematic officer culture and damage control procedures; from risky ship design and function to difficult deck operations and distractable CAP pilots; from poor scouting and battle plans to command indecision; all the way down to intelligence failures and plain bad luck. The authors go out of their way to use mostly Japanese sources to get the most accurate view of the events as possible, and the minute-by-minute playback of events as they unfold is at the same time exhilarating, fascinating, and absolutely heart-wrenching, knowing that it resulted in the pointless and avoidable deaths of thousands

I don't read much, of anything, ever. I have only a passing interest in WW2, and no particular interest in the Pacific theatre.

I have read this book four times.

Seconding this. The book is fascinating and extremely readable. I would be surprised if someone reading this thread did not enjoy it.

Kibayasu
Mar 28, 2010

wedgekree posted:

Good luck taking out the CVE's. Think you can manage to take them? And.. How did your convoy run into them and not take any losses at all?

The patrol boat yelled at them really loudly and crazy-like.

CannonFodder
Jan 26, 2001

Passion’s Wrench

gradenko_2000 posted:

Both a transport TF and a carrier TF abhor surface combat. The DD escorts would only have engaged to run interference for the carriers to withdraw, but since the Japanese transports would also have withdrawn immediately on their end, everyone runs away and nothing happens, even if that's not what we think would have happened IRL.
Well IRL the carriers would have sent up some planes to hunt down the transport ships, but since WitP uses turns the carriers weren't able to attack that turn, and on the next turn set up a CAP because they were spotted and rightly expected an attack to arrive.

MA-Horus
Dec 3, 2006

I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

oh my god you found Taffy-3

FINISH THE JOB THIS TIME DAMMIT

Let's see if the DD/DE commanders in the Grayverse have the same big swingin' balls.

Epicurius
Apr 10, 2010
College Slice
I'd also recommend Eri Hotta's Japan 1941:Countdown to Infamy", which traces the series of diplomatic moves, bad assumptions, and general boneheadedness among the Japanese leadership that led them to launch the Pearl Harbor attack.

gohuskies
Oct 23, 2010

I spend a lot of time making posts to justify why I'm not a self centered shithead that just wants to act like COVID isn't a thing.

CannonFodder posted:

Well IRL the carriers would have sent up some planes to hunt down the transport ships, but since WitP uses turns the carriers weren't able to attack that turn, and on the next turn set up a CAP because they were spotted and rightly expected an attack to arrive.

The carrier TF did launch a strike though right, the airfield attack on Kwajalein? They might have been ordered to prioritize that strike over naval targets.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






We strike the escort carriers. There are heavy losses again, but one of them is out of action.



We fend off their strike nicely.



We then cripple the second one.



Only two planes get eyes on our carriers.



We stray to close to Tarawa, and they get some planes in. Our flak holds them off, but it's close.



We destroy the 14th Kiwi brigade.






Reinforcements for Siam arrive – assaulting across a river like ineffective heroes.






It's time to recall the Butai's – We need to replace their losses. A quick count says I need to replace a couple of hundred planes. Easy right? h



I have no reports of this. It must be from older damage.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

I have a feeling that taking such losses against baby carriers is not sustainable for when we fight the real carriers. :v:

Kibayasu
Mar 28, 2010

Danann posted:

I have a feeling that taking such losses against baby carriers is not sustainable for when we fight the real carriers. :v:

Fleet carriers are what the battleships are for.

Proust Malone
Apr 4, 2008

I salute the forward thinking of an American carrier named for a battle they won’t fight until next year.

Gully Foyle
Feb 29, 2008

Ron Jeremy posted:

I salute the forward thinking of an American carrier named for a battle they won’t fight until next year.

Haha, you never know... we have no idea how the war in the European theatre is going in this timeline. Anzio is supposed to be called the Coral Sea right now, though. Has this timeline seen any major battle there?

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wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
Two crippled CVE's - are either likely to sink or not? Also ow on those plane losses. Good luck wtih replacing them and getting yoru pilots up.

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