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people laugh at all the unfinished poo poo in pongyang but it's p much pot kettle black spiderman spiderman
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Nov 30, 2017 17:58
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I recall in at least one of the "we talk to real Trump voters" articles before I stopped reading them as they're all terrible, one of the people asked was on Obamacare and specifically asked about that, she said she didn't believe they'd actually repeal it despite them saying so. I imagine it is the same with the social safety net stuff, it's obvious a certain percentage of the population is so poisoned by partisanship they will vote for child molestors and gropers over a Democrat, just humming to themselves when the republicans threaten the dark ages. Add a dash of " but I really need this, unlike those mooches (who are all dark skinned)" and you got yourself an apocalyptic stew. This wasn't helped by Obama proposing cuts (which some of the GOP members who will destroy these programs used in campaign commercials!)
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Nov 30, 2017 18:06
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logikv9 posted:they're trying to build one of the largest malls in America nearby me right now. it's going to be a future classic (place for urban explorers to visit, Wait, where’s this? North Jersey might actually be able to support it now. A lot of NYC money moving out here.
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Nov 30, 2017 18:07
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Hilario Baldness posted:One of the understated bubbles is that of United States debt. My deferred compensation fund (and many, many more like it) has been heavily investing in the United States debt (essentially lending the government money for more money in the form of interest). As the tax reform passes, the government will be entirely unable to pay back that debt and those funds will eventually pop. Even with the tax cuts this is solidly in tinfoil territory to view as a bubble, if nothing else because we literally have nothing we could measure a pop in. Worry about the bubbles the tax cuts more directly will keep inflating, and the fallout of a shutdown, sure, but in context the debt itself is still very safe.
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Nov 30, 2017 18:15
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logikv9 posted:they're trying to build one of the largest malls in America nearby me right now. it's going to be a future classic (place for urban explorers to visit, because it will be abandoned day 1) wait what mall is this i want to go watch it fail Agronox posted:Wait, where’s this? we have a ton of great malls already and i dont think our population and income is going up enough to justify it. anime was right fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Nov 30, 2017 |
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Nov 30, 2017 18:21
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cant believe i just said great malls in the retail apocalypse. jersey is a freak of nature. diners, malls, convenience stores and neoliberalism are our claims to fame.
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Nov 30, 2017 18:24
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Cybernetic Vermin posted:Even with the tax cuts this is solidly in tinfoil territory to view as a bubble, if nothing else because we literally have nothing we could measure a pop in. Worry about the bubbles the tax cuts more directly will keep inflating, and the fallout of a shutdown, sure, but in context the debt itself is still very safe. Debt definitely isn't in a bubble (implying the price was being bid up somehow), but it's clear that our current macroeconomic strategy of increasing the money supply whenever there's a contraction will, long-term, end with either a default or hyperinflation. Even Yellen is open about the current trajectory being unsustainable: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/yellen-20-trillion-national-debt-should-keep-people-awake-at-night.html This could theoretically happen before the stock market bubble implodes if the fed continuously expands its balance sheet, but I think your assessment is more likely.
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Nov 30, 2017 18:27
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anime was right posted:cant believe i just said great malls in the retail apocalypse. jersey is a freak of nature. diners, malls, convenience stores and neoliberalism are our claims to fame. you are forgetting the highways. many highways, good highways. the best
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Nov 30, 2017 18:35
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logikv9 posted:It's located 25 minutes from another established mall, one that is already considered one of the largest in the country. And also 15 minutes from another mall. Basically, the whole area is saturated. quote:The US has 23.5 square feet of retail space per person, compared with 16.4 square feet in Canada and 11.1 square feet in Australia, the next two countries with the most retail space per capita quote:More than 3,500 stores are expected to close in the next couple of months. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-retail-apocalypse-has-officially-descended-on-america-2017-3 and the death of brick and mortar thread from C-SPAM is here for anyone interested https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3841116
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Nov 30, 2017 18:37
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Hey what's this
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Nov 30, 2017 18:50
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Hilario Baldness posted:One of the understated bubbles is that of United States debt. My deferred compensation fund (and many, many more like it) has been heavily investing in the United States debt (essentially lending the government money for more money in the form of interest). As the tax reform passes, the government will be entirely unable to pay back that debt and those funds will eventually pop. This is not how the national debt works. The government can literally always pay its debts as long as it chooses to.
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Nov 30, 2017 18:51
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Cerebral Bore posted:This is not how the national debt works. The government can literally always pay its debts as long as it chooses to. Yeah isn't the only issue that the world will start to think that the US is gonna fall apart so they think our money doesn't matter?
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Nov 30, 2017 18:52
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Grondoth posted:Yeah isn't the only issue that the world will start to think that the US is gonna fall apart so they think our money doesn't matter? Do country-level debts have this functionality in place? If the US owes China $100 Billion or whatever and the value of the USD halves, does China get to say the bill is now $200 Billion? Is the bill in Yuan?
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Nov 30, 2017 18:57
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Grondoth posted:Yeah isn't the only issue that the world will start to think that the US is gonna fall apart so they think our money doesn't matter? The issue (and what the graph above is highlighting) is that as the government expands the money supply to cover its debts, eventually you have too much money chasing too few goods. This is the end result of that process: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-30/in-venezuela-the-dollar-s-gained-10-768-in-just-last-two-years Note that it will take a looong time for the USD, which is in incredibly high demand, to reach that point. But there are still physical limits if debt is used to prop up markets indefinitely and we're already 10 years down this road.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:00
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Convert the malls into living spaces for small communities to share a central location for food, clothes, jobs, education and living. Humans are better when we live in small groups and tribes anyways. Then bomb every loving one of them
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Nov 30, 2017 19:04
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univbee posted:Do country-level debts have this functionality in place? If the US owes China $100 Billion or whatever and the value of the USD halves, does China get to say the bill is now $200 Billion? Is the bill in Yuan? Treasurys are denominated in USD. With the exception of things like TIPS, payments are not adjusted for inflation. You take the risk of dollar devaluation when you buy US government debt.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:05
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univbee posted:Do country-level debts have this functionality in place? If the US owes China $100 Billion or whatever and the value of the USD halves, does China get to say the bill is now $200 Billion? Is the bill in Yuan? no, that isn't how debt works, the debt to china is made up of a bunch of contracts between corporations and banks (and partly the government too) that have a set time they are repaid just like student loans or credit card debt. It isn't like some dude from the chinese government walks up to some guy from the us government and says "give us 200 billion now thanks"
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Nov 30, 2017 19:06
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:no, that isn't how debt works, the debt to china is made up of a bunch of contracts between corporations and banks (and partly the government too) that have a set time they are repaid just like student loans or credit card debt. It isn't like some dude from the chinese government walks up to some guy from the us government and says "give us 200 billion now thanks" That's what I figured. The devaluation of the USD is obviously a very bad thing but I suspected that wouldn't impact existing debt agreements.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:08
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gently caress. I had that backwards.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:11
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Grondoth posted:Hey what's this money supply in the economy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
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Nov 30, 2017 19:25
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Grondoth posted:Yeah isn't the only issue that the world will start to think that the US is gonna fall apart so they think our money doesn't matter? The only real issue is inflation, but as things stand right now that's a comparatively tiny worry compared to everything else. And yeah, the government debt is basically just a buncha IOUs specifying that the Treasury will pay X dollars to the holder on a specific date. This is also why people going on about foreign governments "calling in the debt" are talking nonsense.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:29
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Also the entire global economy is built on the conceit that US will always honour its debts, so if it doesn't we'll all have some bigger problems.
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Nov 30, 2017 19:39
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Cerebral Bore posted:Also the entire global economy is built on the conceit that US will always honour its debts, so if it doesn't we'll all have some bigger problems. 
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Nov 30, 2017 19:45
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Cerebral Bore posted:Also the entire global economy is built on the conceit that US will always honour its debts, so if it doesn't we'll all have some bigger problems. Gonna be funny when Generation N+1 decides "the dead plutocrats our idiotic grandparents voted into power ruined everything so fuckit we're rewriting the constitution/laws so the USD no longer exists"
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Nov 30, 2017 19:49
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Agronox posted:Wait, where’s this? anime was right posted:wait what mall is this east rutherford? it’s that rust-stained looking thing they’re building, still i don’t think it’ll survive imo
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Nov 30, 2017 20:00
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logikv9 posted:east rutherford? it’s that rust-stained looking thing they’re building, still thats a decent location if it siphons all the paramus and elizabeth ppl
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Nov 30, 2017 20:27
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possibly, depends if they can get a decent selection of stores. GSP is huge and established though, and they expanded semi-recently to really, really cater to rich fuckers what really bothers me though is that the mall failed halfway through construction, and then they had to run a whole ad campaign about how we can’t let NY take away all our tax dollars 
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Nov 30, 2017 20:40
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logikv9 posted:possibly, depends if they can get a decent selection of stores. GSP is huge and established though, and they expanded semi-recently to really, really cater to rich fuckers i mean i think that location is good for getting manhattan business but bad for getting nj business. gsp owns because it has a shake shack and a gigantic uniqlo. it also has the worst ikea ive ever been to tho (well, right outside gsp anyway)
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Nov 30, 2017 20:44
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White Rock posted:So I've been trying to find what the biggest bubble right now is. For a short list we got the: Tech/App bubble, Bitcoin (natch), Real Estate bubble (Canada, Australia, Sweden, ????) , OP mentions Student Debt securities... those things are pretty much the only things holding up an economy that never really recovered from 2008 (or even from 2000) our economy is running largely on fantasy, bubbles, and irrational exuberance. as soon as something disrupts that unjustified optimism, investment will stop dead and the whole house of cards will come crashing down as a domino effect ripples through the entire economy tearing everything else down. and then the government will pour cash into investors' pockets for a couple years, then the investors will find a new bubble and the cycle will start all over again
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Nov 30, 2017 21:21
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Main Paineframe posted:as soon as something disrupts that unjustified optimism, investment will stop dead and the whole house of cards will come crashing down as a domino effect ripples through the entire economy tearing everything else down.      
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Nov 30, 2017 21:26
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it's so goddamn frustrating, there are plenty of real problems and needs that require funding and there's tons of idle money just sloshing around looking for a home but since productive and necessary investments don't spit cash out in return like a loaded slot machine greedy assholes would rather play keep-away with it instead
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Nov 30, 2017 21:29
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aw yeah that's the good stuffquote:America is behaving like a doomed and desperate convicted felon, holed up smoking as much crack as possible before we have to report to jail. Tons of post-recession free money from central banks, eight years of steadily rising asset prices, the eerie absence of volatility, and the post-election conviction that Donald Trump’s band of goons would—if nothing else—cut taxes on corporations have all combined to fuel a manic investment wave that have made stocks and bonds and real estate and every other asset everywhere expensive as hell. Bitcoin is a classic bubble. Housing prices are insane. And Republicans, who have proven too incompetent to accomplish almost anything, look like they will be able to successfully pass a tax bill that funnels more money to corporations and their investors, who decidedly do not need it. But who will be happy to take it, even if they know that exploding the deficit to give already rich people more money, during a time of essentially full employment, is the opposite of long-term financial probity. They also know that our president is a dumb, incompetent loon. (Wall Street, though it may be evil, benefits by seeing political situations with a ruthless clarity.) It is this situation of clear short term opportunity combined with infinite geopolitical and economic dark clouds looming that has fueled our manic economic boom. Get it while the getting is good, for tomorrow you may be dead! quote:Anyhow here’s my loving prediction: In 2018, something will give. Maybe it will be a fight with North Korea. Maybe it will be a major terrorist attack in the US. Maybe it will be war in the Middle East. Maybe it will be a political scandal so devastating that it undermines public faith in our system. But it will be something. It is stupid to wager that another entire year of Donald Trump, president of the United States, will not result in a catastrophe that rises to the level of tipping point. It’s a bad bet. The stage is set for disaster. And when it happens, everyone will want to take their money and run at the same time. And then we’ll be in the dark time. quote:We can only hope that this time, when the hard times come, everyone doesn’t spend too much time moping about it. The pitchforks and Molotov cocktails have been sitting out in the shed since 2009. And all the real rich people are much richer than ever.
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Nov 30, 2017 21:52
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Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone
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Nov 30, 2017 21:58
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MrWilderheap posted:Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone
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Nov 30, 2017 22:00
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MrWilderheap posted:Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone It's profitable for Google and Facebook but they take all the money through monopoly rents leaving nothing for the people who actually produce the content that go on their platforms
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Nov 30, 2017 22:09
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i think someon eyesterday itt linked to a good article in online ads in the atlantic or something
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Nov 30, 2017 22:10
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MrWilderheap posted:Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone I think what is more likely is a bunch of companies which are trying to get customers will go under drying up the advertising dollars. There is too much of a collective myth around advertising for this to be realized otherwise.
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Nov 30, 2017 22:24
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Thats a good article Can you feel it? A depression greater than we could have imagined, a military and police force in america stronger than ever before, nuclear weapons armed and ready, drones capable of blowing up weddings from across the world and more handguns and assault rifles than people... DOOM is in the air, this Christmas don't buy gifts for loved ones buy them caskets scrawled with the words "LOL"
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Nov 30, 2017 22:43
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NNick posted:I think what is more likely is a bunch of companies which are trying to get customers will go under drying up the advertising dollars. There is too much of a collective myth around advertising for this to be realized otherwise. That's true, I can't even count how many times I've heard "Well you're talking about it so that means it worked  " when someone mentions an ad they hate
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Nov 30, 2017 23:00
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MrWilderheap posted:Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone Make this with a raspberry pi and never worry about ads again.
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Nov 30, 2017 23:02
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