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alright boys, girls, boygirls and girlboys, let's talk about the second great depression warning: i am an idiot here are our doomsday scenarios to fawn over: quote:One rarely discussed feature of the "student loan industrial complex" is the $200 billion market for student loan asset-backed securities (SLABS). This is a circular business, involving lenders like Sallie Mae and big banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America. Like mortgages, student loans get pooled and repackaged into new financial products (securities). The lenders then sell the securities to investors. Investors receive the reward of monthly loan payments, plus interest. They can hold the securities themselves, trade them or bet on them. In turn, lenders receive quick cash, including fees and commissions, and push the risk of the underlying loans onto investors. This shift allows lenders to make more, and larger, loans. like the great recession, we can see an enormous amount of betting on consumer debt, this time in the case of student loans. currently, student loans account for 1.3 trillion dollars of debt in the united states, so there's about 200 bil on betting on this amount of money. there's going to be a problem, the same one that caused the great recession, namely: "Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve’s failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages" in essence, institutions are lending out billions of dollars that they may not get back. in an effort to seek out additional profit, they basically take larger and larger risks. these larger risks may end up being bundled as "safe" in SLABS when they are anything but. if we repeal dodd-frank, we're literally in the exact same situation. last month the house did repeal dodd-frank. that means if it makes it past the senate, we're probably going to repeat history, lmao. good job everyone. we're pretty much on track to repeat the mortgage crisis, again. subprime mortgages are being lent out again because banks need to see those numbers go up up up! and well, without dodd frank, we might see a double whammy. will we get hit by the same thing twice, or will we get a little bit of a mixup? who knows! oh! but we also have another issue: the tech "bubble" now, we're not in the dot-com era. that was mostly fueled by some really stupid frenzy.the market has been shooting the gently caress up since the end of the obama admin, but there's an issue: a lot of tech companies are struggling to actually turn a profit. there's basically an IPO dump scheme going on: get a bunch of investors, go public, cash out on your stock, and then leave everyone else who bought it going "uhh, how the gently caress is snapchat and twitter going to make money." there's plenty or profitable stuff in tech, but there's a chance investors will begin to grow wary of investing in lovely apps and vr tech that won't sell. there's thousands of failures in every industry, but it's the giant ones that might get worrisome. what happens when twitter still isn't profitable? they might sell to microsoft or google or something, but if they see a gigantic company like that not even turn a profit. if they see snapchat crash and burn in 5 years from not making a dime, the reality might hit us, and all that fancy money might mean that silicon valley crashes and burns. i don't think it's likely, but i think ad prices are overvalued due to clickfarming and bots. i think that people still think that dumping 10 million into the uber of vaping is going to somehow make them 50 million. once they stop thinking that, the money stops circulating. whoever has value will get bought out, alphabet turns into the first trillion dollar company. now what? where are the jobs? these companies won't buy services from other companies anymore using their angel bucks. salesforce starts laying people off. at that point, the market bubble will shoot down. when it shoots down, everyone panics and sells. boom, market bubble collapse. say hello to 2000 all over again. the issue is, what if this compounds with say, another mini-bubble like car loans? what if it compounds with the above? we're all dead, man, all of us. i am doubtful this will actualy be the cause of a depression, this might be our current 10 year recession waiting to happen, and then everything's all good in a year. ahh, a recession is going to happen though. let's take a look at our good old friend, the regular rear end market pattern that happens everywhere: time between each recession (since the great depression): 1 year, 9 months 4 years, 2 months 6 years, 8 months 3 years, 1 month 3 years, 9 months 3 years, 3 months 2 years 8 years, 10 months 3 years 4 years, 10 months 1 year 7 years, 8 months 10 years 6 years, 1 month thats right, longest we've gone without one is ten years. when was the last recession? Dec 2007 we're right on loving time. hold on everyone, we're ready for the trump recession. take your bets. when will it happen? how will it crash? speak now or forever hold your peace. we're hosed, ya'll, it's just a matter of when.
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Jul 7, 2017 07:09
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| # ? Apr 30, 2024 23:34 |
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btw this is a post-fact zone, so feel free to make up your own unique doomsday scenario
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Jul 7, 2017 07:10
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america is the only first world country to mostly recover from the last recession so this one is going to be incredibly Cool
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Jul 7, 2017 07:14
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wrong thread
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Jul 7, 2017 07:17
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real estate bubble is happening again, and if it coincides with tech, we are in for a wild ride
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Jul 7, 2017 07:28
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anime was right posted:btw this is a post-fact zone, so feel free to make up your own unique doomsday scenario i dont need to make up my own unique doomsday scenario my smoothbrain presidents done done that for me 
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Jul 7, 2017 07:29
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can't wait for the trump tweets
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Jul 7, 2017 07:30
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millennials already live relatively ascetic lives compared to previous generations, so if material conditions get much worse things could get awesome
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Jul 7, 2017 07:33
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Homeless Friend posted:can't wait for the trump tweets 20% unemployment is FAKE NEWS! Good smart economists are saying we are at FULL EMPLOYMENT! and great economy!
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Jul 7, 2017 07:34
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is there some way to short this like in bradley cooper film
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Jul 7, 2017 07:39
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lol that owns
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Jul 7, 2017 07:40
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Jul 7, 2017 07:47
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cargo cult posted:is there some way to short this like in bradley cooper film im not sure, but it seems like a p good idea to just build up a shitload of cash and invest in blue chips when poo poo hits the fan
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Jul 7, 2017 07:47
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when does silicon valley turn into a deserted hellscape
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Jul 7, 2017 07:48
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i love unlabeled charts
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Jul 7, 2017 07:48
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anime was right posted:i love unlabeled charts thats part of the mystery
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Jul 7, 2017 07:48
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logikv9 posted:when does silicon valley turn into a deserted hellscape there's a chance it doesnt because china is dumping more and more money there even as venture capitalists aren't investing as heavily Trash Trick posted:im not sure, but it seems like a p good idea to just build up a shitload of cash and invest in blue chips when poo poo hits the fan i literally have an enormous amount of cash stockpiled because the second the market burns im dumping it all in the market when its at its cheapest (or im just gonna buy a house) this will backfire spectacularly when instead the value of the dollar plummets and the market is fine. anime was right fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 07:49
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funniest scenario is china buys twitter once everyone realizes its going to crash and burn and only to avoid their own economic instability
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Jul 7, 2017 07:50
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logikv9 posted:when does silicon valley turn into a deserted hellscape
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Jul 7, 2017 07:59
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i'm convinced the housing bubble has to pop after the tech bubble, because it's the tech bubble that's propping up the most egregious housing markets - once that falls, the rest will follow, but that's just my theory
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Jul 7, 2017 08:00
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rudatron posted:i'm convinced the housing bubble has to pop after the tech bubble, because it's the tech bubble that's propping up the most egregious housing markets - once that falls, the rest will follow, but that's just my theory if the tech bubble bursts, all of the houses china and russia bought in seattle and vancouver might become worthless so that might cause be a selling frenzy. in addition, homeowners might default when they lose their 100k/year gig. it's a possible domino for sure. just remember that if one bubble bursts and suddenly every single millenial loses their job, all of that debt that was deemed "safe" in these SLABS is garbage and all those bets also lose money. worst case scenario is probably tech bubble bursts and takes a huge wave of jobs with it and taking the housing market and student loans with it. once that happens, there will be no money to stimulate the economy from anyone under 35 because they'll either have to eat the debt or pretend it doesn't exist. if they pretend it doesn't exist, congrats, those SLABS become double worthless. anime was right fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 08:02
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also: expect millenials to get blamed for everything, because financial regulation and taxing the rich is too hard
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Jul 7, 2017 08:04
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anime was right posted:if the tech bubble bursts, all of the houses china and russia bought in seattle and vancouver might become worthless so that might cause be a selling frenzy. in addition, homeowners might default when they lose their 100k/year gig. it's a possible domino for sure. i lust for economic hellfire
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Jul 7, 2017 08:39
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my doomsday economic theory is we get obliterated by an asteroid made entirely out of purestrain gold
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Jul 7, 2017 10:42
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anime was right posted:if the tech bubble bursts, all of the houses china and russia bought in seattle and vancouver might become worthless so that might cause be a selling frenzy. in addition, homeowners might default when they lose their 100k/year gig. it's a possible domino for sure. since student loan debt can't be discharged except via death I think we know what's gonna happen to all the people who stop paying their loans
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Jul 7, 2017 11:48
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i was wondering where all these people get the money to drive expensive new cars where i live (land of $30k millionaires) and now i know it's subprime auto loans
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Jul 7, 2017 11:51
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I lust for the final crisis
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Jul 7, 2017 13:03
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Dear housing bubble, my wife wants to buy a place next spring so please pop by next May TIA
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Jul 7, 2017 13:29
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Mayor Dave posted:millennials already live relatively ascetic lives compared to previous generations, so if material conditions get much worse things could get awesome My broke as gently caress lifestyle will be even more trendy one day Normie Chomsky fucked around with this message at 13:47 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 13:34
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Lawman 0 posted:I lust for the final crisis my only hope is that the next incarnation of occupies breaks into buildings to  , not just making signs
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Jul 7, 2017 13:54
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After the Collapse I intend on re opening the slave markets at the site of the Liberty Bell in the ruins of Philly. I'll call it 'The Freedom Exchange' Also everyone should invest in chest freezers, solar panels and grain storage capacity. Can your own goods once the harvest makes everything cheap! You only have so long to learn before I become your warlord and demand tribute!
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Jul 7, 2017 14:21
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yeah well get ready shitlord because I've cornered the market on bottlecaps
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Jul 7, 2017 14:54
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i'm glad america are going to crash the world economy right about the time brexit happens
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Jul 7, 2017 14:57
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rudatron posted:yeah well get ready shitlord because I've cornered the market on bottlecaps except caesar in this timeline is zuck
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Jul 7, 2017 15:13
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Jose posted:i'm glad america are going to crash the world economy right about the time brexit happens i live in dallas which has a very hot housing market, and the civic culture here is boosterism on a scale that most other american cities can hardly match. see, everything is fine because companies are relocating here everything is going swimmingly!!! so clearly it's totally obvious and you're an IDIOT if you don't believe the jobs can forever-and-ever support the continuing rise in prices!!! but i'm not so sure. it's not heading to 2008 again, i don't think. but the amount of garbage auto loans, student loans, credit card debt -- in combination -- isn't sustainable. consumer debt more broadly is the problem. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/18/business/dealbook/car-loan-subprime.html quote:With their low credit scores, buying or leasing a new car is not an option. And when all the interest and fees of a subprime loan are added up, even a used car with mechanical defects and many miles on the odometer can end up costing more than a new car. there's ads on drive-time radio now about how to profit from house flipping, which should be a big red siren on the massive speculation that's going on -- i imagine now in part because oil is less profitable. (i knew some people who got into oil speculating for awhile.) the texans are all about it, but people who moved here from florida and so on are (rightfully) skeptical. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 15:22
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The next crash will be really nice -After the last crash nothing was learned besides wall street banks finding out they could hold the country hostage -Finance sector is still driven by commission sales, so this gives them a big incentive to continue cranking out new high risk products like the securitized subprime auto loans -Trump administration will continue its program of deregulation and literally has Goldman Sachs guy running the Treasury -Most of the great finance sector investments that led to the 2008 crash are still around but just got rebranded -Bull markets don't last forever, the private equity bubble is also pretty impressive -Home prices especially in commodity sensitive countries like Australia and Canada are heavily inflated
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Jul 7, 2017 15:35
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I can tell when a bubble is about to burst because my brother gets involved in a new get rich scheme. He was in the process of buying a house to flip when the market crashed (luckily for him the deal fell through) , and now he's buying gpus for mining. I expect the crash any day now.
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Jul 7, 2017 15:37
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Something something, that joe kennedy quote where he says when shoeshine boys are giving stock tips it's time to sell
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Jul 7, 2017 15:43
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Mayor Dave posted:I can tell when a bubble is about to burst because my brother gets involved in a new get rich scheme. He was in the process of buying a house to flip when the market crashed (luckily for him the deal fell through) , and now he's buying gpus for mining. I expect the crash any day now.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL33_8DcqnE
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Jul 7, 2017 15:48
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lol
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Jul 7, 2017 16:02
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