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axeil posted:If the Dems are at 50 with a GOP person not seated they can jam all the committees on day 1 and there's not much the GOP can do about it as there's no tiebreaking procedure (as far as I know) There isn't, and that's another possible outcome of a 50-49 start, yeah. No matter how this ends up (well, aside from a narrow Dem control which is unlikely), though, the immediate future for the Dems is flipping literally one or two vulnerable Republicans in each chamber to pass a few key popular policy goals, such as nonpartisan redistricting and medicaid expansion, so a power sharing arrangement could be a useful tool in the arsenal for making that happen.
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Nov 30, 2017 23:57
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State government is always fascinating to me since there's always a bunch of weird quirks that don't fly at the federal level. How does VA not have a tie breaking procedure in the lower house?
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Dec 1, 2017 00:14
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Carlosologist posted:State government is always fascinating to me since there's always a bunch of weird quirks that don't fly at the federal level. How does VA not have a tie breaking procedure in the lower house? You know, I'm genuinely not sure. The size of the House of Delegates was set at between 80 and 100 members in the Constitution of 1902 (the real lovely one that formalized all of the disenfranchisement of black voters that had grown up since Reconstruction, and did away with the quite-progressive Constitution of 1864 without public ratification), but in practice has always been 100 members since no Delegate is gonna vote themselves out of a seat come redistricting time. Before that, the 1864 Constitution set it at between 80 and 104 members, and I'm pretty sure it was 104 members for the same reason. Before that, the 1830 Constitution said 136 members, and before that it was two per county and one per city (so in 1776 just Williamsburg and Norfolk but shortly thereafter Richmond got one too). So I'm not 100% positive since none of this poo poo is well documented but I think the last time the House of Delegates had an odd number of members was before the ratification of the 1830 Constitution and possibly well before that. And yet in all of that time it's not come up except briefly from 1996 to 1998, and maybe now. So I guess it just was never fixed because it's rarely been an issue! Fun fact-- several other states have tie-able houses without tiebreakers, and some have tie-able houses where there's laws determining what happens. Several require the presiding officers to be of the same party as the governor in those cases. Here's a quick read!
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Dec 1, 2017 00:42
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I am not in Michigan, but I wish I could vote for Dana Nessel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQL37wcgI6k
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Dec 1, 2017 14:14
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I am in Michigan, and that was a strong opening argument lol
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Dec 1, 2017 15:41
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Hell fuckin' yeah I'm sending her some $.
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Dec 1, 2017 16:38
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Arlington County's Board has submitted its proposals to the General Assembly for what legislation they'd like considered this term. Key items are dedicated funding for Metro (the DC area subway/bus system), the ability for localities to rename local roads (allowing Arlington to rename all roads named after Confederates), no excuse absentee voting and environmental/solar power regulations/incentives. https://www.arlnow.com/2017/12/01/metro-renaming-jefferson-davis-hwy-among-priorities-in-2018-general-assembly-session/#more-189623 ARLNow posted:
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Dec 1, 2017 16:51
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How is the Metro funded now if it doesn’t have dedicated funding? The first time I heard that I thought it was insane.
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Dec 1, 2017 17:58
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Badger of Basra posted:How is the Metro funded now if it doesn’t have dedicated funding? The first time I heard that I thought it was insane. 57% from fares and fees, the rest from federal grants and annual appropriations from localities and the states. The problem with those is they need to be re upped every year, while a dedicated funding source would be its own tax that would always go to WMATA.
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Dec 1, 2017 18:43
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Quorum posted:57% from fares and fees, the rest from federal grants and annual appropriations from localities and the states. The problem with those is they need to be re upped every year, while a dedicated funding source would be its own tax that would always go to WMATA. Yep. This is why WMATA can't ever fix anything because to do something like say, replace all the faulty signals that caused a train to derail and got people killed in 2009, you need a lot of money. If that money isn't guaranteed you can't appropriate the funds for the fix since all the money might not be there. It's why it's 8 years later and we still don't have automatic train control back. Guaranteeing the money would let them plan things out more than a year in the future and hopefully stop them lurching from maintenance crisis to maintenance crisis.
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Dec 1, 2017 19:06
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axeil posted:Yep. This is why WMATA can't ever fix anything because to do something like say, replace all the faulty signals that caused a train to derail and got people killed in 2009, you need a lot of money. the new gimmick is setting accumulated garbage on fire and then people dying of smoke inhalation
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Dec 3, 2017 03:08
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Johnny Five-Jaces posted:the new gimmick is setting accumulated garbage on fire and then people dying of smoke inhalation Reading the report on the fire in L'Enfant Plaza made me so loving angry. I haven't step foot in a WMATA-run system since the fall of 2015. I want it to get better but they're so bad at their job and people are dead because of it. That said, the dedicated funding would help even if it can't solve the massive issues they have around incompetent management/employees/culture.
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Dec 3, 2017 03:11
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Two pieces of VA House of Delegates news 1. The 4 races going to recounts will start on December 13 http://www.nbc29.com/story/37013716/judges-set-recount-in-northern-virginia-race-for-dec-13 2. Democrats are attempting to get a new election for the Fredericksburg race with the wrong ballots http://www.fredericksburg.com/news/...7f9cdd9b2d.html
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Dec 7, 2017 14:33
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Discovered: the keyhole to VA Dems’ spine. Let’s go to war
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Dec 7, 2017 18:15
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axeil posted:Two pieces of VA House of Delegates news Reminder that the General Assembly sits at noon on January 10th. Whatever the partisan makeup is at that moment will likely determine who gets to be Speaker of the House of Delegates. There's a potential universe where the Newport News district that has the GOP guy up 10 votes flips in recount and the Fredericksburg election gets stalled in court until then, whereupon we'd have a 50-49 House of Delegates. A Democratic Speaker would be selected, and the avenue would be open for the House to mandate a new special election in Fredericksburg regardless of what the court says, because the House has the authority to adjudicate the elections of its members. It'd be unprecedented partisan hardball, but hell, we're through the looking glass already.
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Dec 7, 2017 18:43
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Quorum posted:It'd be unprecedented partisan hardball, but hell, we're through the looking glass already. Alabama is a hairs' breadth away from electing a slavery apologist (if not pro-slavery), homophobic, misogynist, child molester. And the most charitable reason is for pure partisanship. gently caress 'em.
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Dec 7, 2017 22:25
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OAquinas posted:Alabama is a hairs' breadth away from electing a slavery apologist (if not pro-slavery), homophobic, misogynist, child molester. And the most charitable reason is for pure partisanship. gently caress 'em. i mean, it's alabama, they've got a long history of electing that really we should be surprised that suddenly it's not a net plus
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Dec 8, 2017 00:25
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♪ Sweet hole Alabama ♫
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Dec 8, 2017 11:55
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Today in "The 2017 VA House of Delegates Recount Saga":quote:December 8, 11:00 AM ET: Democrats ask for new election in District 28 race. On December 7, the Washington Post reported that Democrats had filed an amended complaint in their lawsuit challenging the election results of the District 28 race. Robert Thomas Jr. (R) currently holds an 82-vote lead over Joshua Cole (D), who requested a recount on December 4. The amended complaint requested that a federal judge decertify the election results, block Thomas from being seated in the House of Delegates, and order a new election. The Virginia Department of Elections found on November 27 that 147 votes from precincts in Fredericksburg and Stafford County were cast in the wrong elections, possibly impacting the result of the District 28 race. Democrats originally filed suit seeking to block the certification of the District 28 results on November 21. A judge denied their request to block the certification, but he did allow the lawsuit to move forward https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2017
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Dec 9, 2017 01:50
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axeil posted:Today in "The 2017 VA House of Delegates Recount Saga": God this one is a total clusterfuck. Having attempted to help a university friend register to vote while we both went to school in Fredericksburg, I can attest that the registrar at the time was awful-- she tried to tell my friend he couldn't register in the place he attended college full time, which is wrong, full stop. She's the one responsible for incorrectly distributing the voters and causing this mess. (Of course, her error wouldn't have happened if the GOP hadn't created a ludicrous district map that cut city streets in half...)
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Dec 9, 2017 01:56
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Quorum posted:God this one is a total clusterfuck. Having attempted to help a university friend register to vote while we both went to school in Fredericksburg, I can attest that the registrar at the time was awful-- she tried to tell my friend he couldn't register in the place he attended college full time, which is wrong, full stop. She's the one responsible for incorrectly distributing the voters and causing this mess. (Of course, her error wouldn't have happened if the GOP hadn't created a ludicrous district map that cut city streets in half...) The interesting bit is they want to decertify the election and not seat anyone. The judge didn't agree to that but the lawsuit is moving forward.
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Dec 9, 2017 01:59
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axeil posted:The interesting bit is they want to decertify the election and not seat anyone. The judge didn't agree to that but the lawsuit is moving forward. Honestly, if it gets to the point that the judge orders a new election, that's probably the correct ruling. If the election was tainted enough to do it over again, it was tainted enough that its initial winner shouldn't be seated.
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Dec 9, 2017 02:00
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Quorum posted:Honestly, if it gets to the point that the judge orders a new election, that's probably the correct ruling. If the election was tainted enough to do it over again, it was tainted enough that its initial winner shouldn't be seated. And then we can get the chaos scenario where the Dems have 50 seats and the GOP have 49 and they say "gently caress you" and pack all the committees.
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Dec 9, 2017 02:01
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Quorum posted:God this one is a total clusterfuck. Having attempted to help a university friend register to vote while we both went to school in Fredericksburg, I can attest that the registrar at the time was awful-- she tried to tell my friend he couldn't register in the place he attended college full time, which is wrong, full stop. She's the one responsible for incorrectly distributing the voters and causing this mess. (Of course, her error wouldn't have happened if the GOP hadn't created a ludicrous district map that cut city streets in half...)
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Dec 9, 2017 05:37
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https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940590118993141761 https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940590972114579457 https://twitter.com/ckmarie/status/940591264969445376 Let's get this thread up and running again for today!
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Dec 12, 2017 15:38
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940590118993141761 Is anyone posting live turnout numbers like in VA?
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Dec 12, 2017 15:40
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axeil posted:Is anyone posting live turnout numbers like in VA? If I find them I'll post it. https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940591967980830726
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Dec 12, 2017 15:42
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I'll go ahead and post this. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/alabama-senate-closing-time/ Which provides a county level breakdown of voting in Alabama and where Democratic votes are/How well Jones has to perform there. Basic TL:DR, run up the vote across the black belt, win bigger in Huntsville (Madison County) , Birmingham (Jefferson County), and Mobile (Mobile County) while keeping margins low across the rest of the state. I'll include this from the end. quote:As the deep blue tint across the Black Belt in Map 5 shows, Jones will also need solid turnout among African-American voters to have any chance of winning. If black voters make up about 25% of the electorate and Jones wins at least 90% of them, that would mean that Jones would probably have to win at least one-third of the white vote to have a chance of winning, assuming a small portion of the white vote goes for a write-in choice and accounting for a small percentage of other nonwhite voters who are Democratic-leaning. The most recent available exit poll in Alabama is from 2012, which found that Barack Obama won just 15% of the white vote. In 2008, the exit poll found Obama just won 10%, and in 2004, it found John Kerry won about 20%. Even when accounting for the potential error in such findings, it’s clear that it’s been a while since a Democrat won anywhere near one-third of the white vote in Alabama. farraday fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Dec 12, 2017 |
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Dec 12, 2017 15:53
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https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/940576604232847361
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Dec 12, 2017 16:00
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Hell yeah. At the end of the day either chaos will reign or the very stronghold of the Deep South will break before the blue wave. Strap in and 
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Dec 12, 2017 16:05
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https://twitter.com/BradMGM/status/940597520861888512 https://twitter.com/hookjan/status/940598543798165505
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Dec 12, 2017 16:05
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farraday posted:I'll go ahead and post this. Well, Barack Obama and John Kerry didn't run against pedophiles. That might account for a few more percent swing in Jones' favor, not to mention that hatred of Trump will probably get a lot of people out to vote that don't normally vote.
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Dec 12, 2017 16:15
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https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/940600723129208835
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Dec 12, 2017 16:17
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940601175736451072
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Dec 12, 2017 16:27
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http://www.hubdialer.com/agent/?fill=1&campaign_id=011224&pass_code=121217 If anyone wants to gotv here's a link to make some calls. El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Dec 12, 2017 |
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Dec 12, 2017 16:33
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Alter Ego posted:Well, Barack Obama and John Kerry didn't run against pedophiles. That might account for a few more percent swing in Jones' favor, not to mention that hatred of Trump will probably get a lot of people out to vote that don't normally vote. It's important to know the hill you have to climb though. An actual competitive race could bring in people who usually convince themselves their vote doesn't matter. Turn out projections to use as a baseline. https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/940604419535753217 Early in the thread he mentions the Alabama SoS estimate of 25% would be about 830k votes. IF you do get estimates of turn out though remember to compare them against the county chart. A higher than expected turnout is only a good sign for Jones if it is from a higher than average Democratic turnout. While there will definitely be Republican's who will vote for Jones they won't really be identifiable from turnout patterns.
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Dec 12, 2017 16:36
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How is the weather looking today? Anything to be worried about?
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Dec 12, 2017 16:47
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The Glumslinger posted:How is the weather looking today? Anything to be worried about? Mid 40s top of the state down to mid 50s on the coast. Expect freezing temperatures in the evening hours into overnight, no rain expected.
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Dec 12, 2017 16:50
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Guys I guess it doesn't matter https://twitter.com/SasbenJr/status/940609679494967296
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Dec 12, 2017 16:52
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hanales posted:Guys I guess it doesn't matter Jesus Christ, if he wins, it better not be by 4 points.
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Dec 12, 2017 16:55
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