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Al-Saqr posted:saudi arabia will lose to russia because much like our country it's a spectacularly poo poo team run by complete loving incompetent morons. In all honesty, the Russian national team isn't that great either, it might be a pretty messy match. quote:At this point you can't really discuss Syria properly without discussing the broader geo-political climate, since nearly every world/great power of note that we've been discussing is involved in Syria in some way. The US and European partners, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China (those lucrative reconstruction contracts), and the allies for all the above. The only notable countries I can think of that aren't involved are Brazil and India, and India tends to stay neutral on just about anything that doesn't directly involve them. Granted, my perspective is that the lion share of what is going wrong at the moment does come down to a broader geopolitical game being played across the Middle East played by the powers you mentioned above. Obviously, this isn't the first time this has happened, but I do think we may be looking at something more akin to the 19th century than the Cold War, where you have loose-knit alliances of different powers compete over space and resources. (There is also a bit of a parallel between the US during this period with the UK, and China with post-unification Germany, and maybe Russia with Revanchist France?) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Dec 1, 2017 |
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Dec 1, 2017 18:56
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Ardennes posted:Likewise, Egypt can get access to some Western equipment, but it often older equipment (they are using F16 A/Bs and M1A1 tanks) and there is the obvious issue of selling equipment to Egypt that could, in turn, be used against Israel. By buying some Russian equipment, they sidestep the issue. Kinda apples & oranges but Su-35 is $40-60M and F-35 export is $110-130M. A lot more bang for the buck with Russian arms. I imagine that trend keeps across the board.
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Dec 1, 2017 22:49
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Tardigrade posted:Looks like we’re seeing Russia vs Saudi Arabia as the opener match in Russia 2018. Most potentially politicized football game of recent times? The U.S. played Iran in the 98 World Cup.
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Dec 1, 2017 22:59
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Jagged Jim posted:The U.S. played Iran in the 98 World Cup. and Iran won that match LOL.
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Dec 1, 2017 23:05
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Al-Saqr posted:and Iran won that match LOL. It was the only sports game my mom ever watched, and still to this date.
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Dec 2, 2017 01:17
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Spangly A posted:you have to be straight up insane to include the UK, a country with an aircraft carrier and literally no planes or weapons on it, on par with France or Germany. Not sure about Japan's military capabilities but the UK are completely unable to enter any sort of military engagement without multiple nations supporting them; they have no working logistics and no projection at all. Britain has nukes, a permanent UNSC seat, and one of the world's major financial centers. They've needlessly let their military run down but they still punch way the hell above their weight otherwise.
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Dec 2, 2017 02:19
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Britain has nukes, a permanent UNSC seat, and one of the world's major financial centers. They've needlessly let their military run down but they still punch way the hell above their weight otherwise. Also their leadership of the Commonwealth, their "special relationship" with the US, and the preeminence of the English language gives them a tremendous amount of cultural and diplomatic clout.
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Dec 2, 2017 03:29
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OhFunny posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/middleeast/russia-egypt-air-bases.html Oh come on, Putin didn't even touch the Orb.  he might have been speaking to people through it though
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Dec 2, 2017 03:40
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Three podcasts that I listen to have given coverage to Yemen lately. 1) Citations Needed generally talks about how bad media coverage is on a particular topic or issue. Their Iran several weeks ago was insightful, and if you want to hear about how much of a conversation the US isn't having about Yemen right now, this gives some good info. https://soundcloud.com/citationsneeded/episode-17-whitewashing-americas-role-in-yemen 2) Intercepted discusses (among other things) the recent report in NYT about Mohammed Bin Salman and the relationship of that with Yemen. https://theintercept.com/2017/11/29/very-bad-men-trump-the-saudi-crown-prince-sexual-assaulters-and-robert-mugabe/ 3) the always entertaining and sometimes informative Chapo Trap House gives a lot of coverage and analysis this week to the aforementioned NYT piece. https://soundcloud.com/chapo-trap-house/episode-162-arab-spring-breakers-feat-gorka-112817 I figured since we have had a mostly Syria focused discussion or a while, if anyone wanted to refresh their brains on how terrible everything is just a little ways to the southeast of there, here's some info.
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Dec 2, 2017 05:20
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Yemen is hard to discuss because the war is so unbelievably stupid and cruel no one could possibly have anything to say in defense of the Saudis. Even the most strident anti-Iran hawks would rather just stay silent. Perpetuating the conflict now serves everyone's interests. Iran gets to bleed Saudi, MBS can put looking like a moron during the inevitable withdrawal off a little longer, American neocons get to poke the Iranian menace, and the rest of the world has been bribed by the Saudis into silence. I don't know how long the Coalition is going to keep up this farce. Maybe they're waiting for some kind of face saving gesture by the Houthi, or maybe they're trying to position Aden for effective independence, maybe they just need to keep the distraction going until MBS can succeed to the throne.
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Dec 2, 2017 06:01
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https://twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/936737949869379584 https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/936743180061552642 I'm unsure on the reliably of the video, but it's being said 4 of 7 missiles were intercepted.
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Dec 2, 2017 06:59
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/936737949869379584 Whatever, assad will poo poo his pants and say " we will retaliate at an appropriate time" and then go back to doing the only thing His pack of dogs know to do and kill his own population. Arab fascists aren't capable of defending their own countries, only how to destroy it.
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Dec 2, 2017 07:08
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Al-Saqr posted:Whatever, assad will poo poo his pants and say " we will retaliate at an appropriate time" and then go back to doing the only thing His pack of dogs know to do and kill his own population. Arab fascists aren't capable of defending their own countries, only how to destroy it. What's different this time is the apparent successful interception of the majority of the fired missiles. Has local Syrian anti-air defenses improved or actually Russian-manned AA? How will the Israelis factor this into future strikes?
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Dec 2, 2017 07:18
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OhFunny posted:What's different this time is the apparent successful interception of the majority of the fired missiles. Ivan is a regime shill. I'll believe something was shot down when I see it or when someone more reputable reports it. It's been hours and I'm not seeing anything else on Twitter.
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Dec 2, 2017 08:07
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/936737949869379584 Serious question: do Iran or even Russia have the tech to shoot down incoming missiles? I was under the impression that this is something that is super hard to do and only Israeli and US tech can do it, and they’re not even that reliable unless the projectiles are super slow (like the ones generally fired at Israeli). I find it hard to believe that Syria has a missile defense shield that can shoot down 60% of incoming modern missiles fired from Israel, if the basis of the story is even true. If shooting down missiles was that easy, then you’d think the US would be shooting down the North Korean missile launches the second they entered international waters. Trump would get a massive approval rating boost by doing that, so I can’t believe he’s holding back for any reason. Saladman fucked around with this message at 10:02 on Dec 2, 2017 |
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Dec 2, 2017 09:59
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https://twitter.com/HakimAlmasmari/status/936890970888577024 Sounds like Saleh's force are the ones doing the pushing here, but we'll see.
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Dec 2, 2017 11:13
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Saladman posted:Serious question: do Iran or even Russia have the tech to shoot down incoming missiles? I was under the impression that this is something that is super hard to do and only Israeli and US tech can do it, and they’re not even that reliable unless the projectiles are super slow (like the ones generally fired at Israeli). I find it hard to believe that Syria has a missile defense shield that can shoot down 60% of incoming modern missiles fired from Israel, if the basis of the story is even true. Saladman posted:If shooting down missiles was that easy, then you’d think the US would be shooting down the North Korean missile launches the second they entered international waters. Trump would get a massive approval rating boost by doing that, so I can’t believe he’s holding back for any reason.
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Dec 2, 2017 11:14
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Yeah, air to ground missiles are quite a different kettle of fish than actual ICBM which need to be shot down in the launch phase before they reach too high of an altitude. That said, who knows if missiles were intercepted or not considering or not, the S-300 PMU2s that Iran has do have the anti-missile capability but it would really be pressing the technical specifications to the limit. Supposedly, the S-400 isn't supposed to be in that area of Syria. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 11:53 on Dec 2, 2017 |
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Dec 2, 2017 11:49
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Gstu posted:Three podcasts that I listen to have given coverage to Yemen lately. Thanks for this I listened to the citations needed episode and it was very informative e: An older but interesting article from a cairo journalist that goes in depth about the conflict in Sinai https://mondediplo.com/2014/09/05sinai Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Dec 2, 2017 |
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Dec 2, 2017 12:07
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Saladman posted:Serious question: do Iran or even Russia have the tech to shoot down incoming missiles? I was under the impression that this is something that is super hard to do and only Israeli and US tech can do it, and they’re not even that reliable unless the projectiles are super slow (like the ones generally fired at Israeli). I find it hard to believe that Syria has a missile defense shield that can shoot down 60% of incoming modern missiles fired from Israel, if the basis of the story is even true. The Israelis likely used something like their Modular Stand-Off Vehicle. (A bomb that glides using gravity and some wings.) These have a drastically different flight profile than a ballistic missile providing ground crews time to respond. The system used to attempt to shoot it that comes to mind would be a SA-22 but I don't know if they have those in the area. The Russians have some in Syria and Iran is said to be using Syria as a proxy to buy some from Russia. I would not be surprised if it was foreign crews operating this stuff frees up syrian manpower for other uses.
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Dec 2, 2017 12:26
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Still only regime sources claiming they actually hit something. https://twitter.com/Taurusi01/status/905682885491003392
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Dec 2, 2017 12:43
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https://twitter.com/alguneid/status/936895391613644800 https://twitter.com/OsamahAlrawhani/status/936897533430808576 https://twitter.com/saeedalBatati/status/936894191849762817 Biggest developments in Yemen for a while.
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Dec 2, 2017 12:52
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Well now we know why the Houthis wouldn't stop when they had reached Snaa'a.
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Dec 2, 2017 15:11
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Looks like Saleh is about to flip again and angle himself back to being ruler of Yemen. He probably read the signs that this war had no end and he's making a break for it before literally everyone in Yemen dies of starvation. We'll see what happens in the next few days.
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Dec 2, 2017 15:43
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Al-Saqr posted:Looks like Saleh is about to flip again and angle himself back to being ruler of Yemen. He probably read the signs that this war had no end and he's making a break for it before literally everyone in Yemen dies of starvation. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Dec 2, 2017 |
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Dec 2, 2017 15:57
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Al-Saqr posted:Looks like Saleh is about to flip again and angle himself back to being ruler of Yemen. He probably read the signs that this war had no end and he's making a break for it before literally everyone in Yemen dies of starvation. There's also been reports in the past few days of infighting among the rebels (I assumed this meant Houthis, but I didn't see that specified). I wonder how much is internal, and how much is external. KSA or the US offering deals or using spy stuff to turn allies against each other. Or something more banal like people running out of money.
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Dec 2, 2017 15:59
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Count Roland posted:I wonder how much is internal, and how much is external. KSA or the US offering deals or using spy stuff to turn allies against each other. Or something more banal like people running out of money.
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Dec 2, 2017 16:07
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One thing is for sure, much like the situation in Syria, if KSA gets a clear victory out of this then the precedent has been absolutely set about the acceptable MO Arab regimes will do to entire populations inside and outside their countries. What a horrible loving position the 21st century Arab is put in. God help us.
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Dec 2, 2017 16:49
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Al-Saqr posted:One thing is for sure, much like the situation in Syria, if KSA gets a clear victory out of this then the precedent has been absolutely set about the acceptable MO Arab regimes will do to entire populations inside and outside their countries. What a horrible loving position the 21st century Arab is put in. God help us. Can anything at this point be considered a clear victory?
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Dec 2, 2017 17:00
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https://twitter.com/SaadAbedine/status/936986796591894528
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Dec 2, 2017 17:14
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Count Roland posted:Can anything at this point be considered a clear victory? If your an Arab dictator whose sole interest is remaining in power then yes you absolutely did win, not only have you wiped out entire generations of people who might form the civil society that might threaten your absolute hold on power, you've also re-instated the colonial protectorate system and now have an eternal shield against local politics in the form of foreign great powers backing you to the hilt. You've tamed the Information Age, you've crushed the only chance for peaceful change and crushed the very concept of mass protest as a change agent. You win. But not really. Because you've essentially given the next generation of change no choices left but to kill you, kill all your bases of support, kill everyone who even whiffs support for you and ultimately collapse everything to end you. Good, bad, liberal, fundamentalist, there's no telling who'll come out on top of that pyramid of bodies. So good luck with that.
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Dec 2, 2017 17:21
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Let this image be the ultimate proof that ultimately, the Egyptians should've just killed this man in his house when they had the chance.
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Dec 2, 2017 17:22
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Al-Saqr posted:You win.
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Dec 2, 2017 17:55
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Seems like (one of?) the target/s for the Israeli strike was the location the BBC reported on a few weeks ago https://twitter.com/obretix/status/936984386754445312
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Dec 2, 2017 17:56
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Ew, not much to add here. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42209755 quote:An Egyptian lawyer has been sentenced to three years in prison for saying that women who wear ripped jeans should be raped in punishment.
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Dec 2, 2017 19:01
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So here's a question about the S-400. If you have one of the systems do you ever turn on the radar before you want to shoot something down? I assume you don't just run the state-of-the-art radar system 24/7 as a search radar because it would open up the system to countermeasures and attack? Is there a case now where Syria has much more modern air defense systems but has to hold them in reserve for true war scenarios vs. one-off raids?
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Dec 2, 2017 19:15
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A Buttery Pastry posted:The word "missile" covers a lot of variety. I'm no expert, but I wouldn't be surprised if a missile fired from an aircraft was relatively slow, compared to long-range ballistic missiles. I mean, the challenge with intercepting ICBMs is that you generally have to get them while they're still accelerating because the missile has enough gas to reach speeds no interceptor can. Seems like one fired from an aircraft might not be able to reach those kinds of speeds? Huh, yeah no kidding. Around 1 km/s for new Israeli air to surface missiles (http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/iai-reveals-new-air-ground-missile), around 1.5km/s for a SCUD and around 8km/s for an ICBM in terminal phase. Also I bet Shafik would prefer his family -not- come with him to egypt.
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Dec 2, 2017 19:23
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Nckdictator posted:Ew, not much to add here. is it wrong that i am ok with the Sisi regime coming down on salafists and the like. those assholes are cancer to the muslim world and id rather they be steped on by jackbooted thugs then regular folks(yeah i already know they are doing it to regular folks and left wing people.)
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Dec 2, 2017 19:48
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Dapper_Swindler posted:is it wrong that i am ok with the Sisi regime coming down on salafists and the like. those assholes are cancer to the muslim world and id rather they be steped on by jackbooted thugs then regular folks(yeah i already know they are doing it to regular folks and left wing people.) Yes it is wrong. nobody in any sector of society should be subjected to any kind of jackbooted thugs, especially jackbooted thugs who are also rapists and anti-semites and mass murderers like the dogs of the Egyptian regime. if america gets to have it's fair share of kooks and crazies who go about their business making peoples lives miserable in a free and open society, then other people from around the world should as well. This guy deserves to be fined and punished for what he's done and said, but to actively cheer on people who dont give two shits about any kind of humanity just because they've decided to target conservatives you dont like is not a good attitude to have. The real and absolute cancer to the muslim world is fascism. it is the sole cause of all the diseases and malaise and failures of the arab world. Ayman Al zawahiri was a product of fascism, salafist jihadism was a product of fascism, all of the things you hate about those guys stemmed from them. you kill fascism, 90% of the main reasons of all the diseases die with them. Be for freedom no matter who it benefits and against fascism no matter who it targets.
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Dec 2, 2017 19:59
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US will stop arming ethnic militia YPG. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-..._source=twitter
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