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Sickening
Jul 16, 2007

Black summer was the best summer.

Rascallion posted:

1. Cleared Bitcoin futures contracts are coming soon.

2. Futures contracts are used to take large short positions.

3. Bitcoin is an illiquid special purpose vehicle with no default value.

Wait, this can't be a giant bad idea? Right?

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Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
What happens when all 21 million have been mined?

Will things stabilize then? Will we have a better idea what is going to happen?

The one thing I have come to learn is that no one on either side of the pro/con bitcoin insanity really knows what will happen. And either side could end up being right.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

Waltzing Along posted:

What happens when all 21 million have been mined?


That’s not gonna happen for 150 years

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

That’s not gonna happen for 150 years

Seriously? Why so long? I know the mining will slow down but how does it work?

revwinnebago
Oct 4, 2017

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

[The last Bitcoin won't be mined] for 150 years

Bitcoin discovery will logarithmically-ish slow to near-zero the closer it gets to the final coin, so this is a dumb answer.

There is a much closer point when Bitcoin discovery will slow so much that it will radically affect the network. This was part of why forks have already happened. That time is like six to twelve months ago. There will be more pain points in future.


Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

revwinnebago posted:

Bitcoin discovery will logarithmically-ish slow to near-zero the closer it gets to the final coin, so this is a dumb answer.

There is a much closer point when Bitcoin discovery will slow so much that it will radically affect the network. This was part of why forks have already happened. That time is like six to twelve months ago. There will be more pain points in future.


Can you either link me to some information on this or just explain?

christmas boots
Oct 15, 2012

To these sing-alongs 🎤of siren 🧜🏻‍♀️songs
To oohs😮 to ahhs😱 to 👏big👏applause👏
With all of my 😡anger I scream🤬 and shout📢
🇺🇸America🦅, I love you 🥰but you're freaking 💦me 😳out
Biscuit Hider
I could be eating a ban pretty soon here. Or killing God.

WalletBeef
Jun 11, 2005

But how does something extremely liquid like a bitcoin future interact with the illiquid nature of the bittcoin?

christmas boots
Oct 15, 2012

To these sing-alongs 🎤of siren 🧜🏻‍♀️songs
To oohs😮 to ahhs😱 to 👏big👏applause👏
With all of my 😡anger I scream🤬 and shout📢
🇺🇸America🦅, I love you 🥰but you're freaking 💦me 😳out
Biscuit Hider
Oh never mind I said 100,000 not 20,000


*whew*

Top Hats Monthly
Jun 22, 2011


People are people so why should it be, that you and I should get along so awfully blink blink recall STOP IT YOU POSH LITTLE SHIT
People calling steam Rothschild agents for refusing bitcoin

:stare:

Rascallion
Feb 10, 2014

WalletBeef posted:

But how does something extremely liquid like a bitcoin future interact with the illiquid nature of the bittcoin?

There will be both "physically" delivered and cash settled, CME and OCC cleared futures on Cboe and CME. Physically delivered is Cboe via GEMINI (Winkelvoss twins)

The non cleared exchanges cannot quote off of the nbbo for long.

Sten Freak
Sep 10, 2008

Despite all of these shortcomings, the Sten still has a long track record of shooting people right in the face.
College Slice
Somewhere I think I have a harddrive that has a wallet on it. This was when the (probably) first bitcoin thread appeared here. I installed the miner/client, which as I recall was the same thing, and let it run for a bit. It was probably the default CPU miner as I recall. This was also when there were "faucets" that would give out 01 bitcoins or .1 bitcoins every hour or whatever. I don't remember if I even got any but might have like .1 of one and if some fool will pay me $1500 for a string of numbers I am fully down.

revwinnebago
Oct 4, 2017

Waltzing Along posted:

Can you either link me to some information on this or just explain?

Stupid version: When Bitcoin was created, slots were built in for ~21 million secret codes to be discovered, out of a possible field as large as insert metaphor, atoms in the universe or whatever the gently caress. The only way to validate whether you've found a code is to do a really hard math problem that eats up a lot of electricity. As the number of valid slots left decreases, the odds that your guess will be the right, goes to near zero. Since electricity and silicon costs are only going to go up given that we generally think raping the earth and slave labor are bad things, it becomes less and less worthwhile for Chinese people to buy custom logic chips from the slave labor at Foxconn and plug into their dirty power grid full of cheap electricity, so there's every reason to think the last coins will never be mined unless bitcoin rockets up to like millions of dollars per coin. And lolololol Jesus Christ.

The "fees" Steam quit accepting payments over are the other way you pay Chinese people to not go back to their job at Foxconn. Basically everyone on the network currently offers like $20 saying "please mister nice Chinese and or Russian and or like a one in a billion chance its one of these libertarians with a rack of GPUs in their dorm room, won't you look at this transaction and approve it?" and like an hour later it finally goes through because that's how much electricity gets wasted processing one goddamn transaction- you have to pay China $20 to bother to take an hour to do the work. In those same districts, you can get a custom tailored suit for that rate.

As more Bitcoins are discovered, the theory is that there will both not be any Bitcoins left to discover, and also less and less transaction fees to bribe Chineseses, and yet somehow despite the rising middle class in China people think the boot will just keep stomping on the face of the miners forever.

And I'm not joking. That's how it works.

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure

revwinnebago posted:

When Bitcoin was created, slots were built in for ~21 million secret codes to be discovered, out of a possible field as large as insert metaphor, atoms in the universe or whatever the gently caress. The only way to validate whether you've found a code is to do a really hard math problem that eats up a lot of electricity. As the number of valid slots left decreases, the odds that your guess will be the right, goes to near zero. Since electricity and silicon costs are only going to go up given that we generally think raping the earth and slave labor are bad things, it becomes less and less worthwhile for Chinese people to buy custom logic chips from the slave labor at Foxconn and plug into their dirty power grid full of cheap electricity, so there's every reason to think the last coins will never be mined unless bitcoin rockets up to like millions of dollars per coin.

This is pretty inaccurate. A block is mined roughly every 10 minutes, regardless of how many bitcoins have been issued, or the amount of people mining. The reward for discovering a block is just cut in half every 4 years. This is the only reason it will be harder to get bitcoins from mining. "The last coins" will be mined at a set date regardless of the number of people mining, or computer hardware. A single computer could run the bitcoin network.

scott zoloft
Dec 7, 2015

yeah same
my stomach is doing somersaults oh mygoodness

chemosh6969
Jul 3, 2004

code:
cat /dev/null > /etc/professionalism

I am in fact a massive asswagon.
Do not let me touch computer.

Sten Freak posted:

Somewhere I think I have a harddrive that has a wallet on it. This was when the (probably) first bitcoin thread appeared here. I installed the miner/client, which as I recall was the same thing, and let it run for a bit. It was probably the default CPU miner as I recall. This was also when there were "faucets" that would give out 01 bitcoins or .1 bitcoins every hour or whatever. I don't remember if I even got any but might have like .1 of one and if some fool will pay me $1500 for a string of numbers I am fully down.

I did the same and spent my funny money at newegg.

univbee
Jun 3, 2004




scott zoloft posted:

my stomach is doing somersaults oh mygoodness

Are you letting it ride? What's your cash out point? How much do you stand to lose if it craters hard before you do this (both in terms of your initial investment and what would have theoretically been the most you could have gotten out of it)? Will you go back to Iceland with your winnings?

d0grent
Dec 5, 2004

so bitcoin just jumped from 17k to almost 20k in the span of 20 minutes and now GDAX and coinbase are down.

Sickening
Jul 16, 2007

Black summer was the best summer.

d0grent posted:

so bitcoin just jumped from 17k to almost 20k in the span of 20 minutes and now GDAX and coinbase are down.

Amazing.

Fried Watermelon
Dec 29, 2008


Well I guess it's time to buy bitcoins now that the train will never end!

spandexcajun
Feb 28, 2005

Suck the head for a little extra cajun flavor
Fallen Rib
and back down to $16,000. and back up to $17,900 in minutes.

A STORE OF VALUE! For some value, IDK whatever.

Sepherothic
Feb 8, 2003

d0grent posted:

so bitcoin just jumped from 17k to almost 20k in the span of 20 minutes and now GDAX and coinbase are down.

The mark of a healthy financial ecosystem.

Rascallion
Feb 10, 2014
This is state school PhD dissertation gold.

a cyberpunk goose
May 21, 2007

The math problem you are solving is a hashing algorithm that has a certain number of 0s as the leading bits, since hashing effectively is random you are burning watts to have your computer pull millions of slot machines a second. based on the rate of discovery reported to the global chain, the network adjusts the consensus for what the current difficulty is (how many leading 0s).

You lock in your global entitlement to this magic hash by publishing proof of work—signed by your private key—to a pool with your public encryption key, basically saying “this pubkey owns this”, giving you a balance you aggregate by the value of all the entitlements published to the network.

A transaction is publishing an object to a pool that just says “RECEIVER now owns .0021 BTC of this other object in the block chain” and again using some crypto you prove this entitlement by signing poo poo with your private keys

The great part is these transaction pools, TX pools, have limits, and the network only processes new additions so fast, so now you have a queuing problem, now you sort the TX pool by who is offering the most voluntary fees to process your transaction sooner.

The fees are as high as $20 because bitcoin doesn’t actually scale

The markets make it easy to buy in but difficult to cash out, both in terms of site slowness and KYC limitations of their grey market that prevent them from doling out millions of dollars casually. A healthy exchange ecosystem should offer approximately the same friction for buying in as it does cashing out, or at least locking in your value even if you can’t claim the cold hard cash all in one swoop. By the time you can cash out your millions of taxed income the price will have fluctuated as much as 1000% in hours or days





Money of the future

Inept
Jul 8, 2003

on r/bitcoin

quote:

the pump and dump is going to fail as it only increases btc awareness and demand

yourresistanceonlymakesmypenisharder.jpg

revwinnebago
Oct 4, 2017

nexous posted:

This is pretty inaccurate. A block is mined roughly every 10 minutes, regardless of how many bitcoins have been issued, or the amount of people mining. The reward for discovering a block is just cut in half every 4 years. This is the only reason it will be harder to get bitcoins from mining. "The last coins" will be mined at a set date regardless of the number of people mining, or computer hardware. A single computer could run the bitcoin network.

Sooooort of... the problem is that trying to dumb this down never really works. I realize my explanation is dumb but I also think Bitcoin is dumb so I'm making a huge hyperbole. So here's quoting the Wiki:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

quote:

Bitcoins are created each time a user discovers a new block. The rate of block creation is adjusted every 2016 blocks to aim for a constant two week adjustment period (equivalent to 6 per hour.) The number of bitcoins generated per block is set to decrease geometrically, with a 50% reduction every 210,000 blocks, or approximately four years. The result is that the number of bitcoins in existence is not expected to exceed 21 million.[2] Speculated justifications for the unintuitive value "21 million" are that it matches a 4-year reward halving schedule; or the ultimate total number of Satoshis that will be mined is close to the maximum capacity of a 64-bit floating point number. Satoshi has never really justified or explained many of these constants.

Because the number of bitcoins created each time a user discovers a new block - the block reward - is halved based on a fixed interval of blocks, and the time it takes on average to discover a block can vary based on mining power and the network difficulty, the exact time when the block reward is halved can vary as well. Consequently, the time the last Bitcoin will be created will also vary, and is subject to speculation based on assumptions.

At the time of writing, more than 3 out of every 4 bitcoins that will ever exist has already been mined

Interpreting what this will mean in any practical sense depends on how hilarious you think the end game is going to look. And that's usually imagining there will never be another big fork nor any practical problems in the way as we approach that goal.

So yeah... it's supposed to keep halving toward a definite end. Asterisk, asterisk, asterisk.

I think the practical reality is going to end up being much more sad and hilarious. People are going to go absolutely ape poo poo as the coins left to mine nears zero.

LeafHouse
Apr 22, 2008

That's what you get for not hailing to the chimp!



Boy am I glad Bovada called me to ask if it'd be okay to cash out my $90 deposit via bitcoin back in May. I knew online poker would pay off!

UZR IS BULLSHIT
Jan 25, 2004
NEWCOMERS. Don't be worried if we see a $6000-$7000 correction soon. The media is going to say bitcoin is dead. Just HODL and ride out the storm. Nothing can sustain this level of growth. I started collecting at $400, I've seen this happen a bunch of times. (self.Bitcoin)

scott zoloft
Dec 7, 2015

yeah same

univbee posted:

Are you letting it ride? What's your cash out point? How much do you stand to lose if it craters hard before you do this (both in terms of your initial investment and what would have theoretically been the most you could have gotten out of it)? Will you go back to Iceland with your winnings?

I'm letting half of it ride. I sold half my load around 10k, floundered around like an idiot and bought back in. I just tried to sell half again when it hit 18k and the page locked up on me. I just lost about 45k (of potential earnings) not selling half again at 18k.

Gdax has never burned me like that and I'm pretty irritated.

I do want to go back to Iceland but this summer I'm going to try and campaign for us to check out Norway.

Bardeh
Dec 2, 2004

Fun Shoe


5k price swing in the space of a half hour or so lmao

revwinnebago
Oct 4, 2017

a cyberpunk goose posted:

The fees are as high as $20 because bitcoin doesn’t actually scale

https://www.quora.com/Do-bitcoin-transaction-fees-increase-with-BTC-price

quote:

High fees secure the network by partially compensating miners for hashing hardware costs. Up until recently, most miners were compensated by the “block subsidy”, but this will be cut in half every 4 years. Therefore the fees are likely to grow, not shrink if we want the same level of security.

Now, we are only talking about on-chain transactions above.

In the future, most devs agree that we will move to a different model where 99% of the transactions happen off-chain (payment channels) and are rarely converted to an on-chain transaction (with a high fee). You can think of it as 1 on-chain transaction representing 500 actual transactions, so a high fee is okay in that case.

So the best way to make Bitcoin scale...

...is to stop using Bitcoin and do all your real business in dollars. Then during that window when you're bundling those mortgages up into a package, you can made side bets as to how the whole bundle is going to come out. Transactions with lower attached fees will be known as "sub-prime" transactions, and although they will make up larger and larger portions of these blocks, once the blockchain verifies the whole thing, the whole block gets rated AAA. That's right, even though every block is actually resting on a giant foundation of sub-prime motrgages, the rating agency marks the whole thing AAA. Here's Selena Gomez to explain.

Ohnonotme
Jul 23, 2007
Yay!

Sepherothic posted:

The mark of a healthy financial ecosystem.

That happened when it broke through the $10k barrier as well - to many people hitting refresh, or selling, or buying in. The price chart at Coindesk gets super-slow to refresh as well.

Edit - 10k, not 19k.

Ohnonotme fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Dec 7, 2017

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I just wanted to buy some virtual kitties.


reddit posted:

You never pay capital gains if you never sell. The only tax I intend to pay with my bitcoin is sales tax.

quote:

Government as we know it today will not exist is a few years.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Dec 7, 2017

HCFJ
Nov 30, 2009

WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

reddit posted:

You never pay capital gains if you never sell.

This would make a great metaphor

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

revwinnebago posted:

https://www.quora.com/Do-bitcoin-transaction-fees-increase-with-BTC-price


So the best way to make Bitcoin scale...

...is to stop using Bitcoin and do all your real business in dollars. Then during that window when you're bundling those mortgages up into a package, you can made side bets as to how the whole bundle is going to come out. Transactions with lower attached fees will be known as "sub-prime" transactions, and although they will make up larger and larger portions of these blocks, once the blockchain verifies the whole thing, the whole block gets rated AAA. That's right, even though every block is actually resting on a giant foundation of sub-prime motrgages, the rating agency marks the whole thing AAA. Here's Selena Gomez to explain.

This is the promised "lightning network", and in order to facilitate these faster transactions the customer has to put in the maximum amount of money that they think they'll want to spend during that period of high transactions. So if you want to be able to buy up to $1000 in stuff from Target this month, you deposit $1000 worth of Bitcoin to create a sidechain that lasts for 1 month and at the end of the month Target gets whatever percentage of that bitcoin you've actually spent. It's like the exact opposite of credit

This will work great because customers will definitely want to have to put down their entire budget up front and businesses won't mind waiting for weeks/months on end to get paid for goods and services

Rufio
Feb 6, 2003

I'm smart! Not like everybody says... like dumb... I'm smart and I want respect!
That redditor didn't get the memo about btc being a store of value now, no longer currency of the future.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

quote:

I know this is survivorship bias, but I've never sold a bitcoin I didn't later regret.
I stopped playing those games a while ago. I watch the price out of curiosity, but hold my investment with the full expectation that its for retirement. My hot wallet is my hot wallet, I use it when i want and refill it either immediately or whenever I get back to my computer.
Its a lot less stressful with this attitude.

quote:

that's not true. I'm glad I never panic sold on the attacks bitcoin been getting the past year. And I surely wouldn't make a panic sale now either. This is the first time in history where you can have an on going bull run that can just keep going.

quote:

LMAO the tulip thing is exclusively said by idiots.
As if a 6 month, no-utility item is the same as 9 years of adoption for a revolutionary and innovative tech.
"Hurr durr tulips" is the fastest way to get most people to ignore anything you say, and rightly so.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Dec 7, 2017

AbysmalPeptoBismol
Feb 5, 2016

Nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea!

QuarkJets posted:

This is the promised "lightning network", and in order to facilitate these faster transactions the customer has to put in the maximum amount of money that they think they'll want to spend during that period of high transactions. So if you want to be able to buy up to $1000 in stuff from Target this month, you deposit $1000 worth of Bitcoin to create a sidechain that lasts for 1 month and at the end of the month Target gets whatever percentage of that bitcoin you've actually spent. It's like the exact opposite of credit

This will work great because customers will definitely want to have to put down their entire budget up front and businesses won't mind waiting for weeks/months on end to get paid for goods and services

Yeah but people will want to use Bitcoin because it's not controlled by the BIG GOVERNMENT BANKS and so they'll put up with all that stuff!

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

quote:

You don't even know what a bubble is lol.
What is Bitcoin's fuel? When does it run out?
Answer those questions and let me know if you still think it's a bubble.

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Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000

Well when the price of bitcoin goes up, that's super bad, because it's a ponzi scheme and a bubble

and when the price goes down, that's also bad, because it's crashing

The one thing you have to keep in mind is that no matter what happens, it's bad for bitcoin. Lots of crippling bombshells lately.

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