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i hate nytimes because their comments dont load sometimes and it triggers me
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Dec 8, 2017 23:14
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theflyingorc posted:The only red I'm seeing is if things look similar to 2016 or 2014. Yeah, but those are not just a little red, they're R+8/R+10. But I think the most important point isn't what does this one poll show - it's one poll - but how wide the variation that single poll gets in applying different LV screens. And that means that it's much more important to ask what sort of LV screen any particular poll is using than look at just the topline. I also think that the way those results shake out gives me a lot of hope that it's the pro-Jones side that's the better LV screen given that this is an actually competitive race. But the real message I take from this is that the margin for error on any results are huge and this could be anything from a Jones landslide to a Moore landslide.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:14
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Rigel posted:lol Rick Wilson might still be a dousebag bug he does have the best twitter burns against the Trumpers
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Dec 8, 2017 23:14
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Dollars to donuts the $5 million was offered after she was pregnant.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:14
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we should start taking bets on how the alabama race will go
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Dec 8, 2017 23:15
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FuturePastNow posted:I think the general skeevyness of Moore will depress Republican turnout, by itself maybe not enough to sway the election but if Jones can get enough Dems to get out and vote then it actually matters. Keep in mind that Moore was never that popular with the GOP down there even before the allegations, since they thought he was a big loudmouth rear end in a top hat. Yeah he got elected to the supreme court there twice but both times by a lot closer of a margin than it should have been.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:16
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enraged_camel posted:we should start taking bets on how the alabama race will go Jones +3
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Dec 8, 2017 23:16
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evilweasel posted:Yeah, but those are not just a little red, they're R+8/R+10. But I think the most important point isn't what does this one poll show - it's one poll - but how wide the variation that single poll gets in applying different LV screens. And that means that it's much more important to ask what sort of LV screen any particular poll is using than look at just the topline. Agreed. In particular the 2014 numbers are in there as a baseline. Sessions ran virtually unopposed in 2014 and that electorate looks nothing like what the overall political climate is now. Still provides a good baseline though. And the weighting by 2016 vote + self-reported voting thing is concerning. On the other hand, I think it is very reasonable to expect there to be a lot of new voters given the push Doug Jones made to register ex-felons and the like plus this being the first competitive state wide race in Alabama since the George H.W. Bush administration. enraged_camel posted:we should start taking bets on how the alabama race will go Bush v. Gore or 2017 VA House of Delegates level recount insanity
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Dec 8, 2017 23:17
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Trump: the biggest civil rights victory was my electoral college win over lying Hillary.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:18
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enraged_camel posted:we should start taking bets on how the alabama race will go The forums can't handle that many users getting banned.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:18
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Moore + .5 or some poo poo there's no doubt that Moore will win.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:18
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enraged_camel posted:we should start taking bets on how the alabama race will go Jones +11
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Dec 8, 2017 23:18
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Feldegast42 posted:Rick Wilson might still be a dousebag bug he does have the best twitter burns against the Trumpers Yep, I'm probably gonna have to unfollow him soon after Trump loses, but until then, he's a very amusing follow while the GOP is in Trump's tiny hands.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:18
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Jones by one vote
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Dec 8, 2017 23:19
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literally zero votes for moore
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Dec 8, 2017 23:21
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Madkal posted:Trump: the biggest civil rights victory was my electoral college win over lying Hillary. He'll talk about how the fake news is a violation of his civil rights. Really though, he's just afraid of being around that many black people.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:21
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I was thinking "man, Wednesday morning's Trump twitter will be fun if Jones wins" but then I realized, no it won't. It'll be dead silence, and Trump might even go back and delete a few Moore support tweets.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:21
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beejay posted:Holy poo poo, was this guy in a fire or something? cleft palate and something or other
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Dec 8, 2017 23:21
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/939258169351725061
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Dec 8, 2017 23:21
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Well maybe he should try being in a fire.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:22
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https://twitter.com/axios/status/939104989527539712
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Dec 8, 2017 23:23
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I posted this yesterday when everyone was telling me that I was wrong for saying that white gop voters don't really care about the allegations.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:24
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Old couple behind me at airport. "Some Arizona senator offered a woman five thousand dollars to be a surrogate." "They're all a bunch of animals." "Does that mean he wanted a baby or sex...?" "They're all full of poo poo." "He says he's going to resign in January. Yeah, hah, that's when you're all gonna be removed anyway. You think we don't know!" I wanted to correct them on at least three points but meh it would been assholish. I definitely would have if they said it was a Democrat who did it though, the classic Fox news trick. Like...is this the typical level of political awareness? Kinda getting a general story while getting all the details wrong? Oh God they're talking about Clinton...
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Dec 8, 2017 23:25
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Bottom Liner posted:I posted this yesterday when everyone was telling me that I was wrong for saying that white gop voters don't really care about the allegations. Because you were. if 8/10 white women in alabama are GOP voters, that means 2 aren't showing up. if 1/4 of your voters aren't going to show up, then it's a race that jones can win if he can turn out the 2 white women that won't vote for moore, and a decent percentage of people who aren't white women.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:27
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60% of white women is very bad for a Republican in Alabama.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:28
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Because you were. if 8/10 white women in alabama are GOP voters, that means 2 aren't showing up. if 1/4 of your voters aren't going to show up, then it's a race that jones can win if he can turn out the 2 white women that won't vote for moore, and a decent percentage of people who aren't white women. Are you assuming a 100% voter turnout in a special election? 
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Dec 8, 2017 23:28
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Oh btw, what's the deal with people like Gillibrand, who were demanding Franken's resignation, but waffled immensely when the same question was asked about Trump?
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Dec 8, 2017 23:28
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Pander posted:Old couple behind me at airport. They're old. They live in a world of their own creation.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:28
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Pander posted:Old couple behind me at airport. You monster, you know that poor people flying is the reason w ehave global warming! I am imagining a 60 something white couple, and yes that is pretty representative of political awareness.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:29
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Bottom Liner posted:I posted this yesterday when everyone was telling me that I was wrong for saying that white gop voters don't really care about the allegations. Hmm for some reason I doubt your account of how everyone else was wrong and you were right and cool
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Dec 8, 2017 23:29
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Jones by .2 and Moore tries to litigate the outcome until Generic Republican takes the seat back in 2020
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Dec 8, 2017 23:29
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Bottom Liner posted:Are you assuming a 100% voter turnout in a special election? The Dunning Kruger effect is real, and you are a wonderful example. edit: also, the whole mention of "people not showing up" would indicate a less than 100% turnout, you idiot. Heck Yes! Loam! fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Dec 8, 2017 |
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Dec 8, 2017 23:30
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Bottom Liner posted:I posted this yesterday when everyone was telling me that I was wrong for saying that white gop voters don't really care about the allegations. Your point was, and remains extremely stupid. A generic Republican would crush Jones even with a potential big blue wave building up. Moore's scandals is the why the race is competitive.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:30
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FizFashizzle posted:Isn't this a bill of attainder? I think they hit a nerve.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:31
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I fundamentally don't understand how this is possible, or people in general really.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:31
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:The Dunning Kruger effect is real, and you are a wonderful example. Why? What I posted was a simple, undeniable fact.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:31
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CubanMissile posted:I fundamentally don't understand how this is possible, or people in general really. Old, white women are morons.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:31
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This thread is going to melt down when Moore wins, isn't it.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:32
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course he won't, he(more likely his staff) know he will say some dumb poo poo, hell i am sure he will privately. beejay posted:Holy poo poo, was this guy in a fire or something? best case scenario is he genuinely wanted a kid and because of his bullshit theology, it had to be his wife who couldn't conceive, so he had to find someone to carry the seed.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:32
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Rigel posted:Why? What I posted was a simple, undeniable fact. I quoted the wrong post. You are excellent.
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Dec 8, 2017 23:33
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